Energy and environment (ocean energy is blue energy)
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Saatnya beralih menuju bahan bakar gas, dan mulai memanfaatkan energi baru dan terbarukan. Ocean Energy is Blue Energy
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Energy and environment (ocean energy is blue energy)
- 3. PERPACUAN Food and Biofuel 3
- 5. Pertumbuhan ekonomi dan lingkungan • Peningkatan aktivitas ekonomi dan pendayagunaan sumber alam menjadi kenyataan yang belum diperhitungkan sisi perusakan dan penurunan daya lingkungan • Integrasi seluruh perhitungan dan penghitungan potensi sumber alam dan seluruh mata rantainya memerlukan suatu strategy baru • System National Account 2008 akan diperkenalkan secara bertahap untuk mengintegrasikan seluruh kegiatan dan perhitungan ekonomi dengan pemanfaatan dan neraca sumber alam yang ada 5
- 6. 6
- 7. Perencanaan Bisnis dan pembangunan • Keyakinan masa lalu bahwa neraca sumber alam kita masih sangat berlebih harus di imbangi dengan penghitungan berapa penurunan daya lingkungan secara faktual • Kecepatan dan pemborosan pemanfaatan sumber alam justru sedang menjadi ancaman dan kerugian masa depan • Panduan untuk perilaku dan gagasan pembaharuan kebijakan energy terpadu dengan seluruh proses pemanfaatan lingkungan harus menjadi upaya baru • Perpacuan dan perebutan lahan untuk pangan dan Energy akan terjadi tanpa kendali kebijakan 7
- 8. 8 IEA Sounding the Alarm on Global GHG Emissions • IEA Estimates* (May 29th 2011, Guardian Article) § 2008: 29.3 gigatonnes of CO2 § 2009: 29.0 “ § 2010: 30.6 “ (highest ever) • Small effect of the recession on emissions • 80% of current power stations will still be in use in 2020 locking in 11.2 Gt • Gap in scaling back on nuclear cannot be filled by renewables à increase reliance on fossil fuels • Continued shift to unconventional resources *Upcoming World Energy Outlook (2011) 8
- 9. 9 The Unconventional Reality Conventional 0il & Gas Oil Shale Tight Gas CBM Shale Gas Gas Hydrate Gas-to-liquids Heavy Oil Deep GasBiofuels Costs Energy Intensity GHG Emissions Tight Oil 9
- 10. 10 EES Technical Arm of CCEMC* A new approach for advancing transformative technology • 16 projects approved in Round #1 and #2 § Energy Efficiency : 12 projects - $33 M § Renewables: 5 projects - $38 M § Cleaner Energy Production and CCS: 5 projects - $28 M • Round 3 – announcement shortly • Round 4 - underway *Climate Change & Emissions Management Corporation 10
- 11. 11 EES’ Oil Sands Technology Framework - Room to Improve LCA* Emissions • Efficiency improvements – thermal recovery, mining, upgrading § Energy intensity of water treatment for steam • New wave - efficient oil sands production technologies • Next generation upgrading technologies - integration with gasification and CCS § Partial upgrading • Integration of renewables and nuclear ØResearch & technology adaptation costs ØLarge scale deployment ØTime horizon ØCapacity – human, infrastructure *Life Cycle Analysis 11
- 12. 12 Impact of Increased Water Recycle on GHG Emissions 90 92 94 96 98 100 Energy(GHG) ProducedWater Recycle Rate (%) High TDS Low TDS *zero liquid discharge EES Study: • Assess Impact of ZLD* on energy use o Capital & operating costs • New technology opportunities • 9 Companies , ADOE, AENV, ERCB
- 13. 13 Our Focus - Advanced Technologies to Decrease GHG Emissions and Water Use Decrease Fresh water Use DecreasingGHGEmissions SAGD, CSS Best-in-class SAGD Energy Efficiency SAGD, CSS Steam-solvent Electrical heating Combustion Non-aqueous Extraction Surface Minning Energy Efficiency refining, mining Current 5 - 10 years 10 - 20 years CCS In situ and Mining
- 14. 14 Edmonton Waste Management Centre with MSW Biofuels Facility Biofuels Facility Advanced Energy Research Facility Courtesy: City of Edmonton 14
- 15. 15 MSW 100 million t/yr Ethanol 35 million litres/year Biofuel Plant • 90% reduction of landfill • GHG reduction of more than • 3 t of CO2 per tonne of waste § Eliminates methane emissions from land sites § Replacement of fossil fuel/coal § CO2 removal and recovery • Meets renewable fuel mandates Advantages of Biofuel Plant 15
- 16. 16 Advanced Gasification & Syngas Plug-and-Play Pilot & Bench Scale R&D Facility • R&D for Biofuels Industry, universities & other initiatives • Test biofuels, coal, coke and fossil-biomass blends • Evaluate advanced membrane processes- O2, CO2, H2 • R&D on advanced syngas conversion processes • Unique facilities can attract global players Gasifier Feed System Syngas Cleanup Syngas Reformer Acid gas removal CO2 Recovery Methanol Synthesis Bench-scale Research Facility
- 17. 17 Long-Range Energy Alternatives Planning (LEAP) System • Evaluation tool for integrated resource planning and assessing GHG mitigation impact based on set assessments/scenarios Demand House hold Commercial Industrial Agricultural Single detached Single attached Apartment Mobile home construction Smelting and Refining Petroleum refining Cement Chemical Iron and Steel Other Manufacturing Forestry Mining Paper and pulp Space heating Water heating Lighting-Electricity Space cooling Appliances Space heating Water heating Lighting Space cooling Appliances Refrigerator Freezer Dishwasher Washer Dryer Range others Transportation Passenger Freight Pipeline Demand House hold Commercial Industrial Agricultural Single detached Single attached Apartment Mobile home construction Smelting and Refining Petroleum refining Cement Chemical Iron and Steel Other Manufacturing Forestry Mining Paper and pulp Space heating Water heating Lighting-Electricity Space cooling Appliances Space heating Water heating Lighting Space cooling Appliances Refrigerator Freezer Dishwasher Washer Dryer Range others Transportation Passenger Freight Pipeline 17
- 18. 18 Example – Household Sector Space heating Water heating Lighting Appliances Electric furnace NG furnace Heating oil furnace Others Wood furnace Refrigerator Freezer Dishwasher Washer Dryer Range others Electricity Electricity NG House hold Single Detached Single attached Apartment Mobile Space heating Water heating Lighting Appliances Space heating Water heating Lighting-Electricity Space cooling-Electricity Appliances Space heating Water heating Lighting Appliances Refrigerator Freezer Dishwasher Washer Dryer Range others Electric furnace NG furnace Heating oil furnace Others Wood furnace Steam Electricity Electricity Electricity NG Electric furnace NG furnace Heating oil furnace Others Wood furnace Refrigerator Freezer Dishwasher Washer Dryer Range others Electric furnace NG furnace Heating oil furnace Others Wood furnace Refrigerator Freezer Dishwasher Washer Dryer Range others Electricity Electricity NG Space heating Water heating Lighting Appliances Electric furnace NG furnace Heating oil furnace Others Wood furnace Refrigerator Freezer Dishwasher Washer Dryer Range others Electricity Electricity NG Electric furnace NG furnace Heating oil furnace Others Wood furnace Refrigerator Freezer Dishwasher Washer Dryer Range others Electric furnace NG furnace Heating oil furnace Others Wood furnace Refrigerator Freezer Dishwasher Washer Dryer Range others Electricity Electricity NG Electricity Electricity NG House holdHouse hold Single Detached Single attached Apartment Mobile Space heating Water heating Lighting Appliances Space heating Water heating Lighting Appliances Space heating Water heating Lighting-Electricity Space cooling-Electricity Appliances Space heating Water heating Lighting-Electricity Space cooling-Electricity Appliances Space heating Water heating Lighting Appliances Space heating Water heating Lighting Appliances Refrigerator Freezer Dishwasher Washer Dryer Range others Electric furnace NG furnace Heating oil furnace Others Wood furnace Steam Electricity Electricity Electricity NG Refrigerator Freezer Dishwasher Washer Dryer Range others Electric furnace NG furnace Heating oil furnace Others Wood furnace Steam Electricity Electric furnace NG furnace Heating oil furnace Others Wood furnace Steam Electricity Electricity Electricity NG Electricity Electricity NG Electric furnace NG furnace Heating oil furnace Others Wood furnace Refrigerator Freezer Dishwasher Washer Dryer Range others Electric furnace NG furnace Heating oil furnace Others Wood furnace Refrigerator Freezer Dishwasher Washer Dryer Range others Electricity Electricity NG Electric furnace NG furnace Heating oil furnace Others Wood furnace Refrigerator Freezer Dishwasher Washer Dryer Range others Electricity Electricity NG ElectricityElectricity Electricity NG Electricity NG 18
- 19. Resource Availability & Environmental Implications uNear Term Resources: “There are sufficient reserves of most types of energy resources to last at least several decades at current rates of use” … IPCC uEnvironment: A major and growing issue 19
- 20. Energy Trends uProjections are based on the scenarios of the World Energy Council/IIASA and extend to 2100 uDrivers are: u Population – 10.06 Billion in 2050, 11.65 by 2100 u Economic Activity - $75 to 100 B depending on scenario u Technology choices - especially acceptability of coal and nuclear uThree broad scenarios – A, high growth; B, “business as usual”; C, ecologically driven 20
- 21. Energy History and Projections 0 10.000 20.000 30.000 40.000 50.000 60.000 70.000 1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100 Year A B C GWth 21
- 22. Representative Scenarios uThree of the WEC/IIASA scenarios chosen to illustrate a range of possible energy futures: B - BAU A2 - highest emissions scenario C1 - least use of nuclear 22
- 23. Environmental Outlook uOnly the “Ecologically-Driven” scenarios reduce emissions significantly uNet emissions of energy-related Carbon are reduced to tolerable levels by 2100 uAtmospheric CO2 concentration by 2100 stabilizes in the range of 450 to 550 ppm uThis concentration should limit warming to two to three degrees C uEach of these has its own particular makeup of energy sources 23
- 24. Energy Share by Source - B 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100 Other Biomass Solar Nuclear Hydro Gas Oil Coal Traditional Year 24
- 25. 25
- 26. LEDAKAN PENDUDUK 1800 1930 1959 1974 1987 1999 130 th 30 th 15 th 13 th 12 th 250 JT Perkembangan Penduduk Dunia SEB. MASEHI MASEHI 2011 12 th 26
- 27. 0 25 50 75 100 125 150 175 200 225 1600 1700 1800 1900 2000 205 JT 18.314.210.8 40.2 250 275 300 285 jt KELAHIRAN TERCEGAH 80 JUTA PERKEMBANGAN PENDUDUK INDONESIA (JUTA) KELAHIRAN TERCEGAH 100 JUTA 330 jt 237.8 JT 2010 248.6 JT 2013 5 x lipat2 x lipat JUTA JIWA TAHUN 27
- 28. Penduduk Indonesia : Young population Sumber: http://www.economist.com/blogs/dailychart?page=1&fsrc=scn/fb/wl/bl/dailychartjan10 (20101120_WOC951) Indonesia Kondisi kependudukan Indonesia Kelompok usia produktif 15-64 tahun mencapai 66 % atau 165 juta Merupakan kesempatan dan peluang konsumsi yang luar biasa besar dan laju pertumbuhannya cukup tinggi Kelompok dibawah 15 tahun yang cukup besar : 70 juta 66% 28% 6% 28
- 29. Lingkup Komoditi “Policy Paper” Undang-undang “Blueprints” Program 5 THN 1 THN Energi Batubara Minyak Bumi Gas Bumi Energi Terbarukan Panas Bumi Nuklir Listrik MATRIKS KEBIJAKAN, REGULASI DAN PROGRAM ENERGI Kebijakan Batubara Nasional Kebijakan Migas Nasional Policy on Ren. Energy & Energy Conserv. 2 Januari 2004 Kebijakan Panasbumi Power Sector Restructuring Policy 25 Agustus 1998 RUU Mineral dan Batubara UU 22/2001 ttg MIGAS 23 November 2001 Masuk dalam RUU (Pemanfaatan) Energi UU 27/2003 22 Oktober 2003 ttg Panas Bumi RUU Ketenagalistrikan (menggantikan UU No.20/2002) Roadmap Mineral dan Batubara Blueprint Pengembangan Industri Minyak dan Gas Bumi Nasional Roadmap Energi Hijau Blueprint Pengembangan dan Pemanfaatan Energi Panas Bumi RUKN dan Revisi Blueprint yang berdasarkan UU No.20/2002 Kebijakan Energi Nasional (Makro) RUU Energi Blueprint Pengembangan Industri Energi Nasional Kebijakan Ketenaganukliran UU 10/1997 ttg Ketenaganukliran Roadmap Ketenaganukliran DIPA D A F T A R I S I A N P E L A K S A N A A N A N G G A R A N RENSTRA (RENCANA STRATEGIS) SEKTOR ESDM 29
- 30. Kondisi Industri Energi Saat Ini 2005 SUBJEK (S) OBJEK (O) METODA (M) DPR Menko Perekonomian Departemen ESDM Departemen Perhubungan Departemen Perindustrian Departemen Keuangan Kementerian Ristek Departemen Kehutanan Kementerian LH Perusahaan Energi • Perusahaan Migas • Perusahaan Listrik • Perusahaan Tambang BB • Perusahaan Jasa Konservasi Energi Pemerintah Daerah Masyarakat • Hak Budget • Koordinasi • Regulasi Energi • Regulasi Moda Angkutan • Regulasi Industri • Regulasi Fiskal • Kebijakan Teknologi • Regulasi Kehutanan • Kebijakan Lingkungan • Ketersediaan Migas • Energi Primer • Ketersediaan Batubara • Jasa Konservasi Energi • Regulasi • Kesadaran • Pengetatan Anggaran Subsidi • Pengembangan Infrastruktur • Perencanaan dan Pengembangan Infrastruktur Energi • Intensifikasi Eksplorasi Sumber Energi • Diversifikasi dan Konservasi Energi • Pengawasan Biaya Pokok Penyediaan Energi • Rasionalisasi Harga Energi • Kebijakan Domestic Market Obligation (DMO) • Perencanaan Umum Energi Nasional • Elektrifikasi Kereta Api • Penggunaan Bahan Bakar Gas untuk Transportasi • Pengembangan Transportasi Massa • Efisiensi Penggunaan Energi • Insentif Fiskal untuk EBT dan Peralatan Hemat Energi • Pengembangan Teknologi Produksi dan pemanfaatan energi yang efisien • Sinkronisasi Peruntukan Wilayah Hutan Lindung dan Pertambangan • Rasionalisasi Baku mutu Lingkungan • Penyediaan dan Distribusi Migas • Penggunaan Pembangkit Listrik Non–Minyak • Peningkatan Produksi • Penyediaan Jasa • Kendaraan Umum (Non–BBM) • Hemat Energi (BBM) PARADIGMA NASIONAL • PANCASILA • UUD 1945 • UU No. 22/2001 ttg Minyak dan Gas Bumi • UU No. 27/2003 ttg Panas Bumi • UU No. 15/1985 ttg Ketenagalistrikan • UU No. 36/2004 ttg APBN 2005 POLA PIKIR PENGELOLAAN INDUSTRI ENERGI NASIONAL Pengaruh Lingkungan Strategis Nasional Regional Global • Otonomi Daerah •TAGP •ASEAN GRID • Harga Energi Internasional • Liberalisasi Sektor Energi Kondisi Industri Energi yang Diinginkan 2020 Tujuan Nasional Pengelolaan industri energi belum optimal Pengelolaan industri energi optimal 30
- 31. Grissik Palembang Semarang CADANGAN DAN JARINGAN PIPA GAS Pacific Ocean AUSTRALIA Indian Ocean Bangkok Phnom Penh Ban Mabtapud Ho Chi Minh City CAMBODIA VIETNAM THAILAND LAOS Khanon Songkhla Erawan Bangkot Lawit Jerneh WEST MALAYSIA Penang Kerteh KualaLumpur Manila Philipines South China Sea Natuna Alpha Kota Kinibalu BRUNEI BandaraSeri Begawan Bintulu EAST MALAYSIA Kuching Banda Aceh Lhokseumawe Medan Duri Padang Jambi Bintan SINGAPORE Samarinda Balikpapan Bontang LNG Plant & Export Terminal Attaka Tunu Bekapai KALIMANTAN Banjarmasin Manado SULAWESI Ujung Pandang BURU SERAM Ternate HALMAHERA Sorong IRIAN JAYA Jakarta J A V A Surabaya Bangkalan BALI SUMBAWA Pagerungan LOMBOK Cirebon FLORES SUMBA TIMOR I N D O N E S I A Duyong West Natuna Port Dickson Port Klang Mogpu Dumai Batam Guntong 52,081 3,896 728 3,220 14,260 5,190 31,814 3,654 14,782 GAS RESERVE 2P (BSCF) TOTAL RESERVES 2P : 134,015.5 BSCF0,11 3,00 Resources Ardjuna Fields MADURA4,289 Existing Pipeline Planned Pipeline Jayapura Merauke 31
- 32. Grissik Palembang Semarang Pacific Ocean AUSTRALIA Indian Ocean Bangkok Phnom Penh Ban Mabtapud Ho Chi Minh City CAMBODIA VIETNAM THAILAND LAOS Khanon Songkhla Erawan Bangkot Lawit Jerneh WEST MALAYSIA Penang Kerteh KualaLumpur Manila Philipines South China Sea Natuna Alpha Kota Kinibalu BRUNEI BandaraSeri Begawan Bintulu EAST MALAYSIA Kuching Banda Aceh Lhokseumawe Medan Duri Padang Jambi Bintan SINGAPORE Samarinda Balikpapan Bontang Attaka Tunu Bekapai KALIMANTAN Banjarmasin Manado SULAWESI Ujung Pandang BURU SERAM Ternate HALMAHERA Sorong IRIAN JAYA Jakarta J A V A Surabaya Bangkalan BALI SUMBAWA Pagerungan LOMBOK FLORES SUMBA TIMOR I N D O N E S I A Duyong West Natuna Port Dickson Port Klang Mogpu Dumai Batam Guntong MADURA PEMBANGKIT DAN TRANSMISI UTAMA LISTRIK TOTALCAPACITY 24,000 MW Total Jawa Bali : 18,500 MW Total Sumatera : 3,200 MW Total Kalimantan : 800 MW Total Sulawesi : 650 MW Existing Transmission Planned Transmission Power Plant Jayapura Merauke 32
- 33. PROYEKSI NERACA MINYAK BUMI 0.0 100.0 200.0 300.0 400.0 500.0 600.0 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 JutaSBM Produksi-BAU Ekspor-BAU Impor-Skenario Gas & Coal Impor-BAU Impor-Skenario Efisiensi Produksi-Skenario Fiskal Ekspor-Skenario Fiskal 33
- 34. ENERGI MIX NASIONAL TAHUN 2020 (SKENARIO OPTIMALISASI) Panas bumi 5% PLTA 4% Batubara 38% Gas bumi 39% Minyak bumi 10% Nuklir 1.231% Biomassa 0.850% Fuel cell 0.000% Tenaga angin 0.000% Tenaga surya 0.003% PLTMH 0.308% Biofuel 1.516% EBT Lainnya 4% SASARAN ENERGI MIX NASIONAL 2020 ENERGI MIX NASIONAL TAHUN 2000 Batubara 11% Gas bumi 31% Minyak bumi 53% Tenaga air 4% Panas bumi 1% ENERGI MIX NASIONAL TAHUN 2020 (SKENARIO BaU) Batubara 34% Gas bumi 26% Minyak bumi 35% Tenaga air 4% Panas bumi 1% OPTIMALISASI PENGELOLAAN ENERGI 34
- 35. - 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0 50.0 60.0 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 % SASARAN OPTIMALISASI PENGELOLAAN ENERGI NASIONAL MINYAK BUMI GAS BUMI BATUBARA EBT LAINNYA PANAS BUMI TENAGAAIR EKSPEKTASI Business as Usual 40% 38% 10% 5% 4% Upaya I Upaya II Upaya III Upaya IV Upaya V 35
- 36. LAMPIRAN L UPAYA OPTIMALISASI • Upaya I : Mengurangi Minyak Bumi – Coal liquefaction – Pricing policy BBM – Alternatif energi – Pajak BBM – Kebijakan Fiskal • Upaya II : Meningkatkan Gas Bumi – Perubahan paradigma penggunaan cadangan sehingga baik cadangan besar ataupun kecil dapat dimanfaatkan untuk kebutuhan domestik – Cadangan gas tidak ada masalah untuk memenuhi kebutuhan ekspor dan dalam negeri (dalam UU Migas ada konsep mengenai DMO gas) – Pricing policy BBM – Pricing policy Gas – Pembangunan infrastruktur gas • Upaya III : Meningkatkan Batubara – Cadangan batubara tidak ada masalah untuk memenuhi kebutuhan ekspor dan dalam negeri – Penetapan DMO terhadap batubara, termasuk pemberian insentif untuk mendorong penggunaan coal liquefaction • Upaya IV : Meningkatkan Panas Bumi – Potensi panas bumi tidak ada masalah untuk memenuhi kebutuhan listrik • Upaya V : Meningkatkan EBT Lainnya 36
- 37. Energy Share by Source – C1 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100 Other Biomass Solar Nuclear Hydro Gas Oil Coal Traditional Year 37
- 38. Outlook for Resource Availability uWEC projects adequate resource availability over the next 100 years, but foresees that a shift in sources will be driven by: u Environmental impacts u Economic recoverability of the resources 38
- 39. Net Carbon Emissions from Energy 0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 1990 2010 2030 2050 2070 2090 MtC Year A2 B C1 39
- 40. Approaches To Stabilizing GHG Emissions uThere are two fundamental approaches on the energy front: u Reducing the impact of fossil fuels, i.e., “Decarbonizing” them u Expanding the use of renewables or nuclear Note: there are other ways of influencing climate, including various forms of Geo/Climate engineering 40
- 41. Decarbonizing Fossil Fuels uApproaches include: u Shifting to lower carbon fuels, e.g., gas vs. coal u Improving the efficiency of use of such fuels u Capturing and sequestering the carbon (CCS): u“upstream” in the supply process, or u “downstream” in the utilization process uThese measures are necessary but not sufficient – major expansion in the supply from renewable sources is vital 41
- 42. Renewables uRenewable sources include: hydro, biomass, solar, wind, geothermal and various forms of ocean/tidal/wave energy uEach has its own peculiar advantages and drawbacks uOnly some can be exploited at a scale and in a time frame that will make a significant contribution 42
- 43. Sources Viewed as Limited uHydro – only modest scope for expansion uBiomass – important for fuels, but limited by competition for land uGeothermal - locally important, but not a large-scale source unless the “Engineered Geothermal Systems” approach can be developed successfully uOcean/tidal/wave - resources are immense yet diffuse and expensive to exploit 43
- 44. Nuclear Outlook uNuclear suffers from concerns over public acceptance, final waste management and proliferation risk uLittle capacity is being added in the OECD countries and some is being removed uHowever, China, Russia and India have ambitious programs uMore widespread use may be needed to meet emissions targets 44
- 45. Significant Renewables: Solar and Wind uTotal energy available from these sources is immense, but the energy density is low uProduct is largely electricity, the most useful form of energy uThe C1 scenario projects that these sources, along with biomass for fuels, will be the dominant sources of the future 45
- 46. Electricity from Solar and Wind 0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 14000 16000 18000 1990 2010 2030 2050 2070 2090 Solar Wind Year TWh r 46
- 47. 47
- 48. The Matter of Intermittency uIt is critical to recognize that solar and wind are intermittent sources and can be used immediately by the power grid only to the extent of 20 - 25% of production uSolar and wind can be more fully exploited to meet base load needs if storage can be provided or if the electricity is used to generate hydrogen 48
- 49. Electricity from Solar and Wind: Extent of Immediate Use 0 10000 20000 30000 40000 50000 1990 2040 2090 TWhr Year 25% of Total Stored Total Electricity Electricity from Solar + Wind 49
- 50. Cost Impact of Intermittency uSolar and wind installations with storage (to serve base load needs) will be more expensive than those providing peak power uCapital costs, by mid-century, of such plants is estimated at ≈ $7000 per KWe uIncremental investment to accommodate this intermittency is estimated at ≈ $1T per year beginning around 2040 (just over 1% of GWP) 50
- 51. Energy Investments uRecent capital expenditures ≈ 1% of GWP uImplementing energy scenarios that reduce emissions significantly will be more costly uStern Report documents cost estimates at 1% of GWP by 2050 to stabilize atmospheric concentration of CO2 at 500-550ppm uWEC notes costs unlikely to exceed 2% of GWP 51
- 52. Outlook for Space Solar Power uCapital costs for Space Solar Power installations are estimated to be on the order of $4000 per KWe uIf terrestrial installations for solar and wind providing base load power run $7,000 per KWe and a Trillion dollars a year is needed to build the needed capacity, then Space Solar Power should be very competitive 52
- 53. An Assessment uImplementing an energy future such as C1 will be extremely challenging, requiring: u Enormous investments u Strong environmental policies u Continuing international cooperation for decades uConsequences of failing to follow such a path: u Serious climate impacts or u Expansion of nuclear supply and/or u Resort to more use of fossil fuels 53
- 54. What Could Change This Picture? uCheaper ways to store electricity uPower grids of international scale uEconomic means of exploiting geothermal or ocean energy uSuccess in exploiting nuclear fusion 54
- 55. Recommendations uPromote a better general understanding of the world energy situation uSupport all plausible sources of sustainable and clean energy, especially Space Solar Power uSupport policy actions that reduce emissions, importantly, putting a price on carbon uSupport policy actions that improve efficiency uStart now 55
- 56. Take Away uEnergy demand will continue to grow strongly uAlternatives to “Business as Usual” can limit emissions to acceptable levels uRenewable sources will dominate uInvestments need to be large uStrong environmental policies will be required uSpace Solar Power will be competitive 56
- 57. Reduction in World Oil Demand in the Alternative vs. Reference Scenario, 2030 Transport 64% Other 4% Industry 13% Power generation 8% Residential and services 11% Oil savings = 12.8 mb/d Oil savings in 2030 would be equivalent to the combined current production of Saudi Arabia, UAE and Nigeria
- 58. World Primary Energy Demand Fossil fuels account for almost 90% of the growth in energy demand between now and 2030 Oil Natural gas Coal Nuclear power Hydro power Other renewables 0 1 000 2 000 3 000 4 000 5 000 6 000 7 000 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 Mtoe 0 1 000 2 000 3 000 4 000 5 000 6 000 7 000 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 Mtoe
- 59. 0 4 000 8 000 12 000 16 000 20 000 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 MtofCO2 OECD Transition economies Developing countries Global emissions grow 62% between 2002 & 2030, and developing countries’ emissions will overtake OECD’s in the 2020s World Energy-Related CO2 Emissions
- 60. Growth in World Energy Demand and CO2 Emissions Average carbon content of primary energy increases slightly through 2030 – in contrast to past trends 0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% 1971-2002 2002-2030 averageannualgrowthrate Primary energy demand CO2 Emissions
- 61. Net Natural Gas Imports, 2030 Net gas imports are lower in all major importing regions, except China 0 200 400 600 OECD North America OECD Europe OECD Asia China bcm Reference Scenario Alternative Scenario
- 62. OECD CO2 Emissions in the Reference and Alternative Scenarios OECD CO2 emissions peak around 2020 – 25% higher than in 1990 Alternative Scenario 11 000 12 000 13 000 14 000 15 000 16 000 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 MtofCO2 Reference Scenario
- 63. Contributory Factors in CO2 Reduction 2002-2030 Improvements in end-use efficiency contribute for more than half of decrease in emissions, and renewables use for 20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 49% 10% 21% 12% 8% OECD 63% 1% 21% 15% Transition economies 67% 7% 17% 5% 4% Developing countries 58% World End-use efficiency gains 7% Fuel switching in end uses 20% Increased renewables in power generation 10% Increased nuclear in power generation 5% Changes in the fossil-fuel mix in power generation
- 64. Difference in Electricity Investment in the Alternative vs. Reference Scenario 2003-2030 Additional investments on the demand side are more than offset by lower investment on the supply side -2 000 -1 500 -1 000 - 500 0 500 1 000 billiondollars(2000) Difference Additional demand-side investment Efficiency measures Avoided supply-side investment Generation Transmission Distribution
- 65. Ocean Energy lPotensi luasan laut dan samudera belum banyak dijadikan sumber energy terbarukan lPerubahan ke Blue Economy : memanfaatkan seluruh potensi kelautan termasuk untuk food dan energy lMendorong pemanfaatan terintegrasi
- 66. HIGH-TECH AQUACULTURE OCEAN ENERGY ROBOTICS ADVANCED SEABED MAPPING DEEP-SEA FRONTIER SENSORS & REMOTE Acknowledgement: Prof John Delaney Univ Washington A dynamic maritime economy, in harmony with the environment; supported by sound science and technology, which allows human beings to continue to reap the rich harvest from the oceans in a sustainable manner. Integrated Maritime Policy for the EU (2007)
- 67. Apa yang harus dimulai l Renewable energy integration l Transportation strategy restructuring l New strategy for product, process and equipment utlising renewable energy l Waste treatment and management l Energy pedesaan dan energy pada agro industry l Industri dan rumah tangga bermigrasi ke gas l Peningkatan produktivitas secara menyeluruh dalam berbagai sektor terkait
- 68. Basel: a city with a vision 44% of households car-free "2000 watt society – Basel pilot regio
- 71. Vauban District, Tram serviced, passive and net energy producing homes Freiburg
- 72. Thermal solar for new and retrofitted buildings Barcelona
- 73. Odense Population 185,000 35 milion cycle trips in 4 years (30%+)
- 74. Space Required to Transport Same Number of Passengers Why Public Transit? Source: GTZ (2009), Sustainable Urban Transport: A Sourcebook for Policy-makers in South Asian Cities
- 75. TRANSPORTATION DEVELOPMENT IN SURABAYA
- 76. East - West Visualisasi Monorail Jl. Hr Muhammad (patung Kuda)
- 77. North - South Visualisasi Tram Jl. Raya Darmo
- 79. Kesadaran Lingkungan • Pengembangan kesadaran lingkungan harus terintegrasi dengan proses pembelajaran, perubahan perilaku dan penghitungan cost secara terpadu • Research and development to integrate energy and environment. Creative economy • Pengembangan energy terbarukan harus dilakukan secara cepat, radikal, massiv dan punya pertimbangan komersial
- 82. END OF SLIDES THANK YOU Kresnayana Yahya Email: kresna49@yahoo.com Blog: http://www.kresnayana.com 82Enciety Business Consult