Zeynep ausace 2011 tahrir presentation

Social Media and Dynamics of Collective Action Zeynep Tufekc i Assistant Professor University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill Berkman Center for Internet & Society Harvard @techsoc [email_address] n c.edu #freeAlaa

Durable Authoritarianism
30-40+ year Autocracies; common in MENA
Scholars dub these “Durable Authoritarianism”
Often deeply unpopular, unsuccessful
Often the question should be not “why did they fall,” but why they did not before

Collective Action Problem
When a shared problem would be effective solved by mass participation
But when there are:
high costs for individuals
high cost of failure
hard to communicate/organize
This is often a key mechanism to “durable authoritarianism”, i.e. create a collective action problem for its population
(Of course, patronage systems, ethnic divisions, etc. also play a role)

How to Create a Collective Action Problem:
Censorship: makes it easier to isolate, crush
Restrict means of organization: makes it harder for citizens to unite to solve their dilemma
High cost of dissent: torture/jail
Minimize protest potential

States are resource-constrained actors
A common mistake is assuming there is no limit to repression
States are resource-constrained actors and cannot effectively repress all their citizens
In other words, authoritarian states must play “whack-a-protest” in order to survive

Hidden Preferences and Cascades
Authoritarian regimes create conditions of “Preference Falsification” & “Pluralistic Ignorance” (Kuran 1997, 1989), i.e. people don’t share their true preferences out of fear/norms
Perception is part of what shapes reality, i.e. if people perceive an opportunity, it is more likely to be possible

Some Mechanisms Social Media Alter
Makes it harder to censor news and information (national and international both matter)
Makes it easier for citizens to signal preferences and willingness en masse (which is important because individual signaling is costly)
Helps document torture/torturers creating counter-movement
Allows coordination/info flow during protests

Case of Egypt
Persistent organizing and efforts at least for a decade, many earlier protests (small or crushed)
Multi-factor as usual: Youth/elite dissatisfaction, labor movement, rising food prices, economic stagnation, etc. Tunisia also very important example.

This Study
Protestor Survey in Tahrir, February 2011 ( after Mubarak’s ouster ; but while still tense )
N=1050 (Conducted by Engine Room: http://www.engineroom.no/)
Snowball sample, dangerous conditions.
Is not representative of Cairo and it’s not possible or desirable to weight (lack of data about Cairo!)
Caution:This is a survey of 1050 protestors who took part in the demonstrations. Not to be overgeneralized.

TABLE 1. General Characteristics of the Sample Sample Characteristics 33.9% 32.9% 33.9% Attended Protests Before? 36.3% 32.9% 37.5% Present on First day of Protests? 51.5% 56.9% 49.7% Internet on Phone* 80% 90.3% 77.0 % Internet at Home*** 5.3 5.6 5.1 Education*** (1=no educ; 7=post-grad) 28.5 26.6 29.1 Age*** Mean (std error) Mean Mean Total Female Male

TABLE 1. General Characteristics of the Sample Use of Information and Communication Technologies for General Purposes 62.9 58.5 64.3 Print Use 93.6 94.3 93.3 Satellite TV Use 92.2 93.0 92.0 Phone Use 83.2 85.2 82.5 Email Use 15.3 18.2 14.3 Blog Use 62.2 66.6 60.8 Text Use 16 19.7 14.8 Twitter Use 52 60.4 49.2 Facebook Use % % % Total Female Male

TABLE 1. General Characteristics of the Sample Use of ICT for Protest Purposes 57.5 52.1 59.3 Print Use** 91.9 92.6 91.7 Satellite TV Use 81.6 86.7 80.0 Phone Use** 26.9 33.0 25.0 Email Use** 11.5 15.9 10.1 Blog Use** 46.3 48.6 45.5 Text Use 12.8 18.2 11.1 Twitter Use*** 50.7 60.0 47.7 Facebook Use*** % % % Total Female Male

Exp(b) Exp(b) Exp(b) Exp(b) Age 1.007 1.009 1.033*** 1.036*** Male 1.294 1.291† 1.091 1.062 Education 1.047 0.997 1.143* 1.063 Internet at Home 1.453* 1.318 1.602* 1.394 Internet on Phone 1.092 1.031 1.169 1.123 Text Gen. Use 1.128 1.156 Facebook Gen.Use 1.252 1.342* Twitter Gen. Use 1.536* 1.351† Blogs Gen. Use 1.354† 1.486* Email Gen. Use 0.799 1.020 Phone Gen. Use 1.137 0.683 Sat. TV Gen. Use 0.540* 0.815 Print Gen. Use 1.274† 1.677*** _cons 0.214*** 0.342* 0.075*** N 1050 1050 1050 ll -682.616 -67 -651.436 635.845 * p<0.05, ** p<0.01, *** p<0.001 † p<0.10 Model 4 Model 3 Model 2 Model 1 Attended Protests Before Attended First Day of Protests (January 25)

What the Previous Table Says:
Internet at home is associated with higher levels of protest participation
But this relationship is actually mediated by type of platform, for example, Twitter with being there on First day, Facebook having attended protests before.
Satellite TV associated with lower participation. (“Inferior goods?”)

Exp(b) Exp(b) Age 1.012 1.035*** Male 1.437* 1.132 Education 0.996 1.075 Internet at Home 1.233 1.441† Internet on Phone 1.071 1.110 Text Protest Use 1.116 1.188† Facebook Protest Use 1.411* 1.199 Twitter Protest Use 1.414† 1.221 Blogs Protest Use 1.574* 1.360 Email Protest Use 1.313† 1.152 Phone Protest Use 1.531* 1.139 Sat. TV Protest Use 0.714 0.787 Print Protest Use 0.961 1.353* zf2fprotest 1.214 0.618† _cons 0.140*** 0.088*** N 1049 1049 ll -662.300 -639.014 * p<0.05, ** p<0.01, *** p<0.001 Attended Protests Before Attended First Day of Protests (January 25)

What the Previous Table Says:
Social media use for protest purposes is significantly associated with protest participation, especially showing up on first day.
Effect for Facebook, Blogs, Phone statistically significant, Email, Blogs marginally significant

Table 6. Whether Respondent Used Specific Media to Produce or Disseminate Visuals (%) 2.0 Text 2.1 Email 1 Blog 25.1 Facebook 5.1 Twitter 4.0 Face-to-face 3.2 Print 14.7 Phone 51.8 Did not produce any visuals or pictures

So:
Facebook primary mechanism for producing/disseminating visual content
About half the sample participated in some form of citizen/activist journalism
(Iran/Green revolution was probably first)

Logistic Regression(Predictors: Use of Media to Produce & Disseminate Visuals) Exp(b) Exp(b) Age 1.012 1.037*** Male 1.230 1.079 Education 1.012 1.123* Internet at Home 1.367 1.543* Internet on Phone 1.070 1.158 No Production 0.922 0.755 Phone Production 1.199 0.603 Print Production 1.695 1.108* Face-to-Face 1.424 2.135 Twitter Production 1.322* 1.139 Facebook Production 1.685† 1.126 Blog Production 4.348 1.281 Email Production 1.448* 0.819* Text Production 3.467* 3.161* _cons 0.192*** 0.067*** N 1050 1050 Attended Protests Before Attended First Day of Protests (January 25)

Previous Table:
Twitter, Facebook media producers more likely to have been their on the first day
Not very strong effects for previous protest attendance (also confirming that many protestors were novices to street protests)

Where did you first hear of the protests? % Facebook 28.3 Phone 13.1 Sat. TV 4.0 Face-to-face 48.4 Other 6.2

Protest Participation and Where first Heard of the Protests Exp(b) Exp(b) Age 1.010 1.034*** Male 1.273 1.072 Education 1.025 1.135* Internet at Home 1.334 1.525* Internet on Phone 1.105 1.185 First on FB 0.830 1.020 First on Phone 0.438*** 0.502** First on TV 0.811 1.060 First other Media 0.924 1.008 _cons 0.281*** 0.065*** N 1050 1050 ll -675.694 -646.304 * p<0.05, ** p<0.01, *** p<0.001 Attended Protests Before Attended First Day of Protests (January 25)

Conclusion
Internet users more likely to be in Tahrir on January 25 – especially if they were social media users.
Effect even stronger for citizen/activists journalists.
First day important: key to collective action under authoritarianism. The worst position is to participate in a failed protest.
Facebook was key platform for disseminating word of the protests – learning about protest from Facebook equal effect to learning it face-to-face.
Visual news production was very widespread.
Social media appear as crucial components of the story
This, of course, does not take away from the bravery of the Egyptian people.

Thank you! Questions? By Zeynep Tufekci Assistant Professor University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill Fellow, Harvard Berkman Center for Internet and Society @techsoc [email_address] n c.edu #freeAlaa

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Zeynep ausace 2011 tahrir presentation

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