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DVC 98 s Telepresence for the Teleworkplace:
 

DVC 98 s Telepresence for the Teleworkplace:

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  • This talk is really about bandwidth. How much do we need and when do we get it?
  • 26
  • You can't talk about Internet without talking about how fast it grows. This is my cursory graph. I asked myself "When does it crossover the number of people in the world"? My wife who was a geographer, said "I can't even think about that depressing question". So I went to Yahoo and typed "World population" and read an article. It wasn't so depressing . There are 5.5 billion, and it's only growing at 1.6 per cent per year. The number of Internet users cross over the world population in 2003 in this extrapolation.

DVC 98 s Telepresence for the Teleworkplace: DVC 98 s Telepresence for the Teleworkplace: Presentation Transcript

  • Telepresence for the Teleworkplace: Living-in versus visiting Cyberspace… Making Telepresence a Reality … or what DV is really all about 30 April 1998 Gordon Bell (gbell@microsoft.com) Bay Area Research Center Microsoft Research http://www.research.microsoft.com/barc/gbell
  • Outline
    • Nature of the Teleworkplace
    • Platforms and technology push… why now?
    • The teleworking dimensions
    • Telepresentations: a killer app
    • But does anyone want telework?
    • Cyberspace… our quest
    • The end…..
    • The 16 questions posed in the DVC Brochure
  • Telework = work + telepresence … “being there while being here”
    • Goal: teleoffice/teleworkplace = workplace office
    • The teleworkplace is ideally just a “remote office” W/O
      • Communication, computer, and network support!
      • Team interactions for work! CSCW is a “rat hole”!
      • Interaction at coffee, meeting rooms, … in offices
      • Administrative support for phones, information (especially paper) management, keeping track of
    • Always on & always connected to intranet/intranet ...!
    • Telepresentations & communication -- the “killer apps”
    • Collaboration is desirable, hard, and may be possible. Needs B/W & low latency. It’s on its very slow way.
    • SOHOs & COMOHOs is a high growth market
  • Telecommuting versus time
  • Teleworking CW 9/1/97
    • 15% 2 yr increase, 11 Mpeople, avg. 19 Hr/wk
    • 42% of US Co’s; 22% have policies (screening, worker expectations, liability, IP protection, etc.
    • Are telecommuters more productive?
      • 30% yes
      • 50% same
      • 4% no
      • 16% don’t know
    • Are telecommuters more accessible?
      • 13% yes
      • 40% same
      • 40% no
      • 7% don’t know
  • Telepresence for work: requirements
    • Telepresence = space and time shifting
    • Goal: teleoffice/teleworkplace = workplace office
    • Limited space, bandwidth, administrative and computer support infrastructure, AND interaction
    • Need: run all office and professional apps, support computing environment, and be always connected
    • New app opportunities: telepresentations (e.g. NetShow, Powerpoint conferencing);
    • Web is the greatest library ever created
    • Create “presence” for collaboration by apps sharing (e.g. NetMeeting, Placeware)
    • Administrative support including paper handling !
    • Short term bets: large disks (e.g 20GB), more displays, videophones, cameras, scanners, bandwidth limits
  • Telework & telepresence: a forcing function into several areas...
    • Home Network
    • Network connection is always on … and at high speed
    • Support (at reasonable cost) for all apps… -- the teleworker = system admin
    • Office work… e.g. paperlessness, message mgm’t “recording all we read, write, hear, and see” -- the teleworker = admin. assistant aka secretary
    • Telepresence… attending meetings and lectures, taking courses, etc. without travel
    • Collaboration on a work project without travel
  • Why telepresence now?
  • It’s the near-term platforms, stupid! (multimedia is finally happening)
    • Text & 2D graphics >> images, voice, & video
    • The WEB: being anywhere and doing anything
    • Disk sizes and cost c1998
      • $50-100 / GB
      • 4 GB standard; CD-R; and 20-40 GB MO R/W
    • The videophone will emerge for distributed conferences
    • Document, picture, and video capture and compression
      • 10,000 to 250,000 pages / GB; 10,000 pictures / GB
      • 40-400 books / GB or $0.25-2.50 / book
      • Plethora of … CAMERAS EVERYWHERE!
      • More Screens. We need at least two!
    • Voice and video compression*
      • 250 hours / GB voice
      • Stamp size-VHS: 12-50 hours / GB;
    • Audio: Surround sound that is part of V-places
  • Memex
  • Storing all we’ve read, heard, & seen Human data-types /hr /day (/4yr) /lifetime read text, few pictures 200 K 2 -10 M/G 60-300 G speech text @120wpm 43 K 0.5 M/G 15 G speech @1KBps 3.6 M 40 M/G 1.2 T stills w/voice @100KB 200 K 2 M/G 60 G video-like 50Kb/s POTS 22 M .25 G/T 25 T video 200Kb/s VHS-lite 90 M 1 G/T 100 T video 4.3Mb/s HDTV/DVD 1.8 G 20 G/T 1 P
  • Storage and data-rate requirements for common office data-types Documents image compressed #/GB page or fax 100 K 4K 10K;250K business card 5 K 500 200K;2M snapshot 3 M 100 K 10,000 350 page book 25 M 1-2 M 40;750 Human data-types /hr /day /lifetime read text, few pictures 200 K 2 -10 M 60-300 G speech text @120wpm 43 K 0.5 M 15 G speech @1KBps 3.6 M 40 M 1.2 T Video comp. 50KbPOTS 22 M .25 G 25 T video comp. 200Kb VHS 90 M 1 G 100 T video comp. 4.3Mb DVD 1.8 G 20 G 1 P
  • SOHO AKA COMOHO Teleworking Environment Guardian Angel: intercom, records what we read, see, and hear… protects us from ourselves and others
  • Libretto, .5mm PCS; Pilot Libretto PS, Ricoh Camera; Swiss Army Knife Compass; altimeter Not shown: ECG; GPS;
  • One of GB’s Teleworkplaces
  • Tecra & Libretto Replacement… at 3#
  • Conference Rooms with Teleconferencing
  •  
  • SOHO (small office, home office) network computing environment NT Server for: comm/network, POTS/IP gateway, file, print, compute IP Dial tone (Internet, phone, videophone) >1.5 Mbps Phone POTS (legacy services) *NC, NetPC, Xterm, etc. ... LAN PC NC* PC ... Phone Phone
  • Telework & communications space
  • The Space of Telepresence for work email Formal presentations sans video ... Voice & Videomail Video lectures & courses ICQ, Internet phone & phone conf. RealAudio & simple graphics Workspace for remote program control Whiteboard (groups) ... Videophone Remote Rover (Robot Videophone) person-computer 1:1 personal communication 2 site-site conferencing; n site conferencing 1:p broadcasts computer management distributed groups with >2, 10, <100, view (troll) hallways with “informal” interaction 1: 1 videophone calls for (problem solving, authoring) interviews classes formal meetings (lectures, conferences, stockholder meetings, town halls, etc..) Mechanisms (how) Synchronous Asynchronous Group Interaction (Who) Type of Work (What) Profession
  • Telepresence: who and what
    • WHO
    • 1:1 person-person communication
    • n:m 2-site-site video conference
    • 1:n-site broadcasting or Mbone narrowcasting
    • distributed group. >2 - 5 - 10 - 100
    • ----
    • person-computer
    • computer management (no persons)
    • What
    • view (troll) hallways, “seeking interaction”
    • 1:1 interview, status report, etc.
    • 1-6 videophone calls for (design, problem solving, authoring)
    • hold staff meetings with 1 or more members distributed
    • attend classes
    • formal meetings (lectures, conferences, stockholder meetings, town halls, etc..)
  • Telemeeting clone
  • Telework clones… being in more than one place at the same time
  • Animatron...
  • Telepresence Mechanisms ( for Work) Synchronous Internet phone & phone conferencing RealAudio & Overhead graphics Shared applications Whiteboards CU SeeMe on POTS… IP Videophone Mbone Video conferencing Room Video conferencing Remote Rover (Robot Videophone) Asynchronous voice mail…STT email ... TTS Home pages replace bulletin boards, file transport, and document distribution Schedule & “Notes” Voice and Video “email” Telepresentations (meetings, presentations, & courses)
  • Voice and Visual Alternatives (in order of increasing B/W)
    • Voice*
    • TTS (synthetic or speaker driven)
    • 4 Kb-64 Kb codec of real voice
    • Stereo of real voice
    • Stereo with sound source identification
    • Projection into arbitrary virtual world environment
    • *variable speed
    • Visual AKA Video*
    • Text avatar (simple… photo)
    • Avatar with voice sync
    • Avatar of real person
    • Video codec based projection
      • “ Postage stamp” … POTS
      • “ Mailing label” … ISDN or 2x POTS
      • Compressed VHS (200 Kbps)
      • MPEG 2 (1- 4 Mbps)
    • Speaker tracking, 1-n cameras
    • VR image of a large space
    • 3d images “holodeck”
    • Animatron e.g. Barney
    • Mobile Animatron
    • *Meeting in real or virtual world
  • Telepresentations: The next or another killer app?
  • Tools for telepresentations and telecollaboration
    • Powerpoint: conference & record, Precept: mbone multicasting
    • NetShow: On demand viewing of video 28.8 - 100 Kb
    • CuSeeMe: audio, video, whiteboard
    • NetMeeting: audio, 2 way video, chat, whiteboard, program sharing
    • Placeware for large scale meetings, presentations, and collaborations
  • Telepresentations “B eing There (e.g. meeting, lecture, confererene) Without Really Being There (or Then) ”
    • Presenter or audience need not be physically present
    • Reach a wider audience
      • “ I have a schedule conflict.”
      • Anybody with a web connection can participate
    • Reduce costs
      • No need to travel to attend or participate in a presentation
  • Telepresentation Features
    • Essential
      • High quality audio and Graphics aka slides
    • Important
      • Some essence of the presenter - even a few still images
    • Non-Essential
      • Video of the presenter
      • Two-way communication
  • Telepresentations will be a well-defined app by 2001.
    • ACM97 was the first telepresented conference with Mbone multicast & servers that host the conference cf. http://www.research.microsoft.com/acm97
    • Bet: More people will view the conference from Cyberspace than that attended it.
    • Big question: will telepresentation technology AKA tele-learning affect learning and education?
  • But does anyone want telework?
  • Problems: socio vs technical
    • Isolation & loneliness
      • need for communication/stimulation
      • chance meetings -- serendipity of ideas
      • loss of group/teamwork skills
      • danger of becoming “terminal”
    • interruptions & focus
    • lack of support staff to help, answer ?s
    • supervision and ability to have 1:1
    • unclear that many people want it… they simply need the contact with people
  • A People Model: Does anyone want telepresence? Spock formal (in writing) Self-control informal (verbal) Sally Field Souter Evangelism Swaggert Analyticals .. being right, detailed anal retentives Drivers … results oriented megalomaniacs Amiables … consensus builders spineless wimps Expressives ... want recognition, need contact psychotics Managing Interpersonal Relationships (MIR) 2D Model --------------chat---------------- email broadcast- push Intensity
  • Everything cyberizable will be in Cyberspace and covered by a hierarchy of computers! Region/ Intranet Campus Home… buildings Body World Continent Fractal Cyberspace: a network of … networks of … platforms Cars… phys. nets
  • By April 1, 2001 videophones will ship in 50% of the PCs and be in use.
    • Gordon Bell vs Jim Gray 1996 (one paper, loser gets fed)
    “ ”
  • Two, $1K Bets with Nicholas Negroponte on Internet Growth
    • That by December 31, 2000 there will be 1 billion users on the web.
    • (5:1 odds) That by December 31, 2001, there will be 1 billion users on the web.
  • Growth in users? World population@1.6% Internet growth extrapolated@98%
  • Good News
    • Bandwidth will come
    • Audio and video compression is improving to live within POTS limit
    • Videophones will be built-into all PCs within 5 years at 0 cost
    • Telepresentations are here for “live” and “on demand” use This will change education!
    • Telecollaboration tools work for simple apps…
  • Telework: Summary
    • The web is the enabler. We still lack B/W.
    • Technology is coming, research lags in handling
      • Storage of all text, audio, and useful video
      • Videophones, cameras, netPCs, WebTV, etc.
      • More pixels we require to increase “presence”
      • Adequate audio… the “killer” component
    • A big part of telework is just office productivity
      • Coexistence with computer, paper, telephone,
      • Data-types require a multimedia database
      • Computer and network management is a real “time killer”
    • CSCW is a rathole. We don’t understand CW
      • The killer apps are simple: telepresentations and shared apps
    • Being connected all the time is essential
  • “ Therapy from long distance debated” - SJ Mercury 5 April 1998 http://www.sjmercury.com/breaking/headline1/056580.htm
  • The End
  • Bonus slides: Gordon’s very own answers to the 16 questions posed in the DVC Brochure
  • Will streaming video bring the Internet to its knees?
    • Depends on the data-rate. Is it 28.8 Kbps? Or > 4500 Kbps for DVD and HDTV-quality?
    • By definition, it won’t or can’t because
    • It won’t be deployed if the network can’t support it
    • Better question: What forms will streaming video take over the next five years for the corporate user?
    • What forms will streaming video take as a function of time for the home internet user?
  • What are the essential ingredients for success in remote collaboration?
    • The type of work… it has to be “coarse grain” I.e. little interaction among the collaborators per unit of collaboration and work output
    • Telepresentation-type collaboration does work
    • The application supporting it
    • Great audio
    • Were you able to collaborate in a single site?
  • How much interoperability is really out there?
    • Not much…among vendors.
    • Microsoft has a solution to this problem and we comply with the various ITU standards
  • Which technology will win the broadband access battle -- cable modems or DSL products?
    • I.e. the dumb or the blind?
    • Cable will lead in the short term because of the inherent ease of doing it, its low cost, and the possibility that users could simply buy their cable modems and attach them. Not a given because the transition to digital channels will confuse things
    • But in the long term, service most likely has to be Central Office based for reliability and scalability and for symmetry.
  • Why are desktop video conferencing sales growing faster in the consumer market than in business market?
    • It would be surprising if videoconferencing sales are growing faster.
    • Surely 2 way videophone is growing
    • Clearer need: the videophone
    • It is easy to do for videophone use
    • Lack of a great product that works
    • Lace of infrastructure on the net, including firewalls
    • Audio isn’t good enough… I.e. acceptable
  • How will Disney use the Internet to distribute multimedia content?
    • Slowly… look at their site with a young child
    • Games, cartoons, and stories
    • To engage the users into stories like DisneyLand or DisneyWorld
  • What does it cost to multicast video to thousands of users from a single stream?
    • Do you have the bandwidth for one or more channels? If so, the cost is nil.
    • Is it just for internal multicasting?
    • Do you want to send to the internet or just receive?
    • All these require just doing it…
    • FYI: Multicasting using NetShow is built in to NT
  • Which streaming media technology places the least demand on your network server?
    • The Mbone standards… are just fine
    • Not using “on demand”
    • However, “on demand” is the most useful and flexible, by far
  • Can videoconferences be made secure?
    • Is this really a problem?
  • How can the enterprise network be used to transmit voice?
    • Wait
    • Adequate and reliable LANs
    • Platforms that support voice are available
    • It really happens when you incorporate desktop IP telephony
  • What are the costs and logistics of broadcasting live over the internet?
    • Why would you want to?
    • You have to use the Mbone channels today or the equivalent of extra-nets?
    • A more realistic scenario would be “on demand” from your site. Anyone can do this!
  • What is being done to simplify life for multipoint users?
    • Who he/she?
  • How do you integrate audio and video into your web pages?
    • Just do it!
  • With the emergence of IP telephony, is regular POTS conferencing dead?
    • Yes, but
    • It is going to take 3-5 years before IP telephony becomes ubiquitous enough
    • It will probably build from a product/technology like NetMeeting
    • Should ask:t what kind of environment or use?
  • What are the best measures of videoconferencing quality?
    • The existing systems using dedicated links
    • Whether users can get work done
  • Will video chat develop like keyboard chat and generate millions of minutes of usage for on line services?
    • It already is. Go visit a Porno studio, however this is really one way chat
    • Unclear how much n-way video chat will be used
    • Expect NetMeeting et al will be the enablers and meetings could be the “killer app”
    • Don’t count out shared games as the enabler and avenue for chat & collaboration
    • Some consumer research questions: Do you want voice at all or text with avatars and comic chat? Or would you rather chat using just voice, voice and avatars, lip-synced images of yourself, 10-30 fps talking images?