HUMAN POPULATIONS
The Walker School
Environmental Science
Mr. Thomas Cooper
WHAT IS DEMOGRAPHY AND
WHY IS IT IMPORTANT?
Demography
    The study of the vital statistics that affect population


    size.
                                     ...
World Population Clock
http://www.census.gov/main/www/popclock.html
Demographic Statistics
    Reproduction Rates


    Infant Mortality Rates


    Life Expectancy


    Total Fertility ...
Cohort Life Tables
    An age-specific summary of the survival pattern of a


    population.
    Life tables are constru...
Survivorship Curves
    Type I


    Type II


    Type III

Life Histories Variables
    Number of Reproductive Periods


    Number of Offspring Each Reproductive Period


    Ges...
WHAT FACTORS AFFECT
HUMAN POPULATION
GROWTH?
Human Population Growth
World Population Growth Rate
    1.25%


    This adds 80 million people a year.

Population Growth Variables
    Crude Birth Rate (CBR)


    Crude Death Rate (CDR)


    Immigration


    Emigration
...
UN World Population Projections
                        12

                        11
                                 Hi...
Crude Birth Rate for the World
Crude Death Rate for the World
Crude Birth and Death Rates
       Average crude birth rate                   Average crude death rate


                 ...
Poverty Affects Population Growth

    Develop Countries Growth Rate 0.1%


    Undeveloped Countries Rate 1.15%

Revolutionary Improvements
    Increased food production


    Better medical care


    Improved sanitation


    Indu...
Current World Population Density
HOW LONG WILL IT TAKE FOR THE
WORLD’S POPULATION TO
DOUBLE?
Doubling Time – Rule of 70
    Life expectancy/growth rate


    70/1.25 = 56 years

Growth Rate Categories
    Rapid (1.5-3%)


    Slow (0.3-1.4%)


    Zeros (0-0.2%)


    Negative

Activity: Movie
    Show PBS program


    “World in the Balance”
    in 20 minute segments
    each day.
    Have studen...
WHAT ARE SOME KEY
INDICATORS OF POPULATION
GROWTH OR DECLINE?
Indicators of Population Growth or Decline

    Natural Increase Rate (NIR)


     Percentage    by which the population...
World Fertility Rates
                        Developed Countries = 2.1%
                        World Average = 2.8%
Changes in US Fertility
Births per thousand population




                                 32
                           ...
Factors Affecting Fertility and Births

    Infant mortality rate


    Average age at marriage


    Ability of Legal A...
HOW CAN FAMILY PLANNING HELP
REDUCE BIRTH AND ABORTION
RATES?
Key Factors to Fewer Children
    Ensuring education


    Having jobs outside the home


    Living in societies where ...
Family Planning Programs
    Birth Spacing


    Birth Control


    Health Care for Pregnant Women


    Heath Care fo...
Room for Improvement
    Need to expand programs to include teenagers


    and sexually active unmarried women.
    Need...
Condom
                         Male
                                                       Contraceptive
                ...
WHAT FACTORS AFFECT
DEATH RATES?
Life Expectancy at Birth
Factors Affecting Death Rates
    Food Supplies and Distribution


    Better Nutrition


    Medical Advances in Vaccin...
Economics and Life Expectancy
World Infant Mortality Rates
Infant Mortality Rates
    Has dropped from 20 per 1000 births to 7 in


    developed countries
    Has dropped from 118...
Factors Still Affecting U.S. Infant Mortality

    Inadequate health care for poor women during


    pregnancy
    Inade...
Infant Mortality and Female Literacy
SHOULD THE U.S.
ENCOURAGE OR
DISCOURAGE IMMIGRATION?
Migration to U.S. by Region of Origin

                          Current Rate: 900,000 per year
Destination of Immigrants by U.S. State
600
                                       Figure 12-14 (1)                                           571


              ...
WHAT ARE AGE
STRUCTURE DIAGRAMS?
Age Structure Diagrams
    Shows the distribution of various


    age groups in a population.
    A great deal of inform...
Developed Countries

                  85+
                  80-85
                                          Male        F...
Developing Countries


                  85+
                  80-85
                                           Male      ...
Teenagers and Pyramids
    The number of people under age


    15 is the major factor
    determining a country’s future...
Ecomomic Projections
    Who will need education


    Who will need jobs


    Who will determine markets


    Who wi...
Warfare Projections
    Youth bulges argue that an excess in especially young adult male population


    predictably lea...
HOW DO HUMAN POPULATIONS
DEVELOP ECONOMICALLY?
The Demographic transition model (DTM)

    A model used to explain


    the process of shift from
    high birth rates ...
Pre-Industrial Stage (Stage 1)
    High birth and death rates


    Low medical care (natural meds)


    Population lim...
Transitional Stage (Stage 2)
    Increased food production


    Better medical care (esp. antibiotics)


    Improved s...
Industrial Stage (Stage 3)
    Need for increased labor force


    Availability of education (esp. female)


    Delay ...
Post Industrial Stage (Stage 4)
    Industrial system no longer supports population


    High unemployment, poverty


 ...
Stage 5 ?
    Countries that have undergone the economic


    transition from manufacturing based industries into
    se...
HOW CAN WE ACHIEVE
POPULATION STABILIZATION?
Achieving Population Stabilization
    Increase the amount of money that they allot to

    public health and family plan...
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Human Population Ecology

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Human Population Ecology

  1. 1. HUMAN POPULATIONS The Walker School Environmental Science Mr. Thomas Cooper
  2. 2. WHAT IS DEMOGRAPHY AND WHY IS IT IMPORTANT?
  3. 3. Demography The study of the vital statistics that affect population  size. •Size •Density •Age Distribution •Dispersion
  4. 4. World Population Clock http://www.census.gov/main/www/popclock.html
  5. 5. Demographic Statistics Reproduction Rates  Infant Mortality Rates  Life Expectancy  Total Fertility Rate  Survivorship Curves  Life Histories / Tables  Life Expectancy at Birth of Epidemic Malaria Area in Papua New Guinea
  6. 6. Cohort Life Tables An age-specific summary of the survival pattern of a  population. Life tables are constructed by following a cohort from birth  to death. A cohort is a group of individuals of the same age.  The table is constructed from the number of individuals that  die in each age-group during a defined time period. Life tables are graphically displayed in survivorship curves. 
  7. 7. Survivorship Curves Type I  Type II  Type III 
  8. 8. Life Histories Variables Number of Reproductive Periods  Number of Offspring Each Reproductive Period  Gestation Time  Maturation Time  Size of Offspring 
  9. 9. WHAT FACTORS AFFECT HUMAN POPULATION GROWTH?
  10. 10. Human Population Growth
  11. 11. World Population Growth Rate 1.25%  This adds 80 million people a year. 
  12. 12. Population Growth Variables Crude Birth Rate (CBR)  Crude Death Rate (CDR)  Immigration  Emigration  Density Dependant Factors  Density Independent Factors  Cultural Practices  Technology Revolutions 
  13. 13. UN World Population Projections 12 11 High High 10.9 10 Medium Low 9 Population (billions) Medium 8 9.3 7 6 Low 7.3 5 4 3 2 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Year
  14. 14. Crude Birth Rate for the World
  15. 15. Crude Death Rate for the World
  16. 16. Crude Birth and Death Rates Average crude birth rate Average crude death rate World 21 9 All developed 11 countries 10 All developing 24 countries 8 Developing 29 countries (w/o China) 9 © 2004 Brooks/Cole – Thomson Learning
  17. 17. Poverty Affects Population Growth Develop Countries Growth Rate 0.1%  Undeveloped Countries Rate 1.15% 
  18. 18. Revolutionary Improvements Increased food production  Better medical care  Improved sanitation  Industry-generated population centers  Information democracy 
  19. 19. Current World Population Density
  20. 20. HOW LONG WILL IT TAKE FOR THE WORLD’S POPULATION TO DOUBLE?
  21. 21. Doubling Time – Rule of 70 Life expectancy/growth rate  70/1.25 = 56 years 
  22. 22. Growth Rate Categories Rapid (1.5-3%)  Slow (0.3-1.4%)  Zeros (0-0.2%)  Negative 
  23. 23. Activity: Movie Show PBS program  “World in the Balance” in 20 minute segments each day. Have students answer  questions on handout for each section.
  24. 24. WHAT ARE SOME KEY INDICATORS OF POPULATION GROWTH OR DECLINE?
  25. 25. Indicators of Population Growth or Decline Natural Increase Rate (NIR)   Percentage by which the population grows in a year. Total Fertility Rate (TFR)   Average number of children a women will have in her lifetime. Infant Mortality Rate (IMR)   Averagenumber of infant deaths under 1 year of age, compared with total live births
  26. 26. World Fertility Rates Developed Countries = 2.1% World Average = 2.8%
  27. 27. Changes in US Fertility Births per thousand population 32 30 28 26 24 22 20 18 End of World War II 16 Demographic Depression Baby boom Baby bust Echo baby boom 14 transition 0 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 Year
  28. 28. Factors Affecting Fertility and Births Infant mortality rate  Average age at marriage  Ability of Legal Abortions  Availability of Reliable Birth Control Methods  Religious beliefs, traditions, and cultural norms  Importance of children as part of the labor force  Cost of raising and educating children  Availability of private and public pension systems  Urbanization  Educational and employment opportunities available for women  Importance of young adults joining the military 
  29. 29. HOW CAN FAMILY PLANNING HELP REDUCE BIRTH AND ABORTION RATES?
  30. 30. Key Factors to Fewer Children Ensuring education  Having jobs outside the home  Living in societies where their rights are not  suppressed
  31. 31. Family Planning Programs Birth Spacing  Birth Control  Health Care for Pregnant Women  Heath Care for Infants 
  32. 32. Room for Improvement Need to expand programs to include teenagers  and sexually active unmarried women. Need to emphasize abstinence.  Educate men about the importance of having fewer  children. Pro-Life and Pro-Choice Groups to Join Forces 
  33. 33. Condom Male Contraceptive 5% sterilization 5% Use Pill 8% No method Other 43% methods 10% Condoms are “somewhat” IUD EFFECTIVE 12% MOST EFFECTIVE: 1. Total Abstinence LEAST EFFECTIVE: 2. Sterilization 1. Douche 3. Vaginal Implants 2. Chance Female sterilization 17%
  34. 34. WHAT FACTORS AFFECT DEATH RATES?
  35. 35. Life Expectancy at Birth
  36. 36. Factors Affecting Death Rates Food Supplies and Distribution  Better Nutrition  Medical Advances in Vaccines and Antibiotics  Improved Sanitation  Safer Water Supplies 
  37. 37. Economics and Life Expectancy
  38. 38. World Infant Mortality Rates
  39. 39. Infant Mortality Rates Has dropped from 20 per 1000 births to 7 in  developed countries Has dropped from 118 to 61 per 1000 births in  developing countries
  40. 40. Factors Still Affecting U.S. Infant Mortality Inadequate health care for poor women during  pregnancy Inadequate health care after birth for babies born  to poor women Drug addiction among pregnant women  High teenage birth rate 
  41. 41. Infant Mortality and Female Literacy
  42. 42. SHOULD THE U.S. ENCOURAGE OR DISCOURAGE IMMIGRATION?
  43. 43. Migration to U.S. by Region of Origin Current Rate: 900,000 per year
  44. 44. Destination of Immigrants by U.S. State
  45. 45. 600 Figure 12-14 (1) 571 Page 260 500 Population in millions 400 273 Total population 300 200 76 100 Projections 2100 2080 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 Year Projected Population Increase in the United States
  46. 46. WHAT ARE AGE STRUCTURE DIAGRAMS?
  47. 47. Age Structure Diagrams Shows the distribution of various  age groups in a population. A great deal of information about  the population broken down by age and sex can be read from a population pyramid, and this can shed light on the extent of development and other aspects of the population. Types: 1. Stationary 2. Expansive 3. Constrictive
  48. 48. Developed Countries 85+ 80-85 Male Female 75-79 70-74 65-69 60-64 55-59 50-54 Age 45-49 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 15-19 10-14 5-9 0-4 300 200 100 0 100 200 300 Population (millions) © 2004 Brooks/Cole – Thomson Learning
  49. 49. Developing Countries 85+ 80-85 Male Female 75-79 70-74 65-69 60-64 55-59 50-54 Age 45-49 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 15-19 10-14 5-9 0-4 300 200 100 0 100 200 300 Population (millions) © 2004 Brooks/Cole – Thomson Learning
  50. 50. Teenagers and Pyramids The number of people under age  15 is the major factor determining a country’s future population growth. Population pyramids can be used  to find the number of economic dependents being supported in a particular population. 30% (1.9 billion) of people on  the planet were under 15 years of age in 2004.
  51. 51. Ecomomic Projections Who will need education  Who will need jobs  Who will determine markets  Who will affect elections  Who will need Medicare 
  52. 52. Warfare Projections Youth bulges argue that an excess in especially young adult male population  predictably leads to social unrest, war and terrorism, as the quot;third and fourth sonsquot; that find no prestigious positions in their existing societies rationalize their impetus to compete by religion or political ideology.
  53. 53. HOW DO HUMAN POPULATIONS DEVELOP ECONOMICALLY?
  54. 54. The Demographic transition model (DTM) A model used to explain  the process of shift from high birth rates and high death rates to low birth rates and low death rates as part of the economic development of a country from a pre-industrial to an industrialized economy.
  55. 55. Pre-Industrial Stage (Stage 1) High birth and death rates  Low medical care (natural meds)  Population limited by food availability (internal) 
  56. 56. Transitional Stage (Stage 2) Increased food production  Better medical care (esp. antibiotics)  Improved sanitation (esp. drinking water)  Decreased death rate  Birth rate stays high (cultural norms)  Period of rapid growth rate 
  57. 57. Industrial Stage (Stage 3) Need for increased labor force  Availability of education (esp. female)  Delay in age of 1st reproduction  Change in cultural norms  Birth rates decline toward zero population growth  (ZPG)
  58. 58. Post Industrial Stage (Stage 4) Industrial system no longer supports population  High unemployment, poverty  Food supplies diminish  Environmental health declines (high disease)  Social strife (disease, famine, war)  Increased death rates and decreased birth rates 
  59. 59. Stage 5 ? Countries that have undergone the economic  transition from manufacturing based industries into service and information based industries called deindustrialization. Examples: United Kingdom (the earliest nation  universally recognized as reaching Stage Five), Germany, Italy, Spain, Portugal, Greece, and most Japan.
  60. 60. HOW CAN WE ACHIEVE POPULATION STABILIZATION?
  61. 61. Achieving Population Stabilization Increase the amount of money that they allot to  public health and family planning Increase the average level of education, especially  of women Increase the employment opportunities for women  Decrease consumption by developed nations 
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