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Condemned to Repeat - Allied Rifle Contracts of WW1
 

Condemned to Repeat - Allied Rifle Contracts of WW1

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Lecture to the HBSA, Imperial War Museum, July 2011. ...

Lecture to the HBSA, Imperial War Museum, July 2011.
"Condemned to Repeat - Allied Rifle Contracts of WW1"
This is a presentation delivered to a monthly meeting of the Historical Breechloading Smallarms Association (HBSA) in London, UK.
www.hbsa-uk.org

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    Condemned to Repeat - Allied Rifle Contracts of WW1 Condemned to Repeat - Allied Rifle Contracts of WW1 Presentation Transcript

    • Condemned to RepeatAn Exploration of Allied Small Arms Procurement During theGreat War and its Lessons for the Modern MilitaryEstablishmentAdam Firestone & Luke MercaldoPrepared for:Historic Breech-Loading Small Arms AssociationImperial War Museum, London18 July 2011
    • Progress, far from consisting in change,depends on retentiveness. . . .Those whocannot remember the past arecondemned to repeat it. George Santayana, The Life of Reason, 1905 Copyright Adam C. Firestone, 2011. All rights reserved. 2
    • Agenda Preface Overview Introductions The Context of Current Events World War One American Production of the British Pattern 14 Rifle American Production of the Russian Mosin-Nagant Model 1891 Rifle Notable Wartime Use Parallels and Lessons Learned Conclusion Summary Contacts The Book Copyright Adam C. Firestone, 2011. All rights reserved. 3
    • Preface Every age considers itself “modern” ◦ Advanced from the ignorance and mistakes of the past Thesis: ◦ Technology advances rapidly ◦ Paradigms of human use and management of that technology advance very slowly ◦ Nowhere more evident than in the field of weapons acquisition and procurement policy ◦ A study of the past can guide the present clear of the same mistakes Vantage Points ◦ A modern case from ongoing operations in Libya ◦ Historical case studies focused on Allied rifle contracts in America during World War ◦ Conclusions, Lessons Learned and Military Futurism Copyright Adam C. Firestone, 2011. All rights reserved. 4
    • Overview First World War unprecedented in terms of: ◦ Geographic scope ◦ Size of the forces engaged ◦ Wastage of men and materiel ◦ Demands on national industrial bases Military procurement systems unprepared ◦ Despite lessons of previous wars This presentation examines . . . ◦ The lessons that should have been learned; ◦ The procurement process resulting from the failure to learn; and ◦ The modern legacy of these lessons . . .through the lens of Allied small arms acquisitions in the United States during the War: ◦ British procurement of the Pattern 1914 rifle; and ◦ Imperial Russian procurement of the Mosin-Nagant M1891 rifle Copyright Adam C. Firestone, 2011. All rights reserved. 5
    • Luke MercaldoAdam FirestoneINTRODUCTIONS Copyright Adam C. Firestone, 2011. All rights reserved. 6
    • Luke Mercaldo Luke’s exposure to historic firearms began at an early age… …the result was a lifelong interest in the technology and history of these artifacts Copyright Adam C. Firestone, 2011. All rights reserved. 7
    • Luke Mercaldo Luke’s fascination with technology continued to grow…  …as did his interest in the history defined by the technology. Copyright Adam C. Firestone, 2011. All rights reserved. 8
    • Luke Mercaldo Today, Luke is literally part of the technology that brings the world closer together. Copyright Adam C. Firestone, 2011. All rights reserved. 9
    • A Little About Adam’s World Once upon a time, Adam lived in this world… Copyright Adam C. Firestone, 2011. All rights reserved. 10
    • A Little More About Adam’s World . . .then, Adam moved to this world… . . .but, we won’t talk too much about that shameful part of Adam’s history… Copyright Adam C. Firestone, 2011. All rights reserved. 11
    • Adam’s World Today Copyright Adam C. Firestone, 2011. All rights reserved. 12
    • THE CONTEXT OFCURRENT EVENTS Copyright Adam C. Firestone, 2011. All rights reserved. 13
    • HMS Triumph• 19 March 2011: Triumph launches Tomahawk Land Attack Missiles(TLAM) against coalition targets in Libya in support of OperationOdyssey Dawn• Ensures that the United Kingdom is a full and equal partner in thecoalition Copyright Adam C. Firestone, 2011. All rights reserved. 14
    • Operation Odyssey Dawn British Trafalgar class submarines launched approximately 16 TLAM 20% of UK TLAM inventory By 23 March, press reports MoD and defense industry concerns about UK capability to sustain coalition participation Copyright Adam C. Firestone, 2011. All rights reserved. 15
    • The Real Question What was the reason behind the UK TLAM acquisition? Traditional Weapon System Acquisition Rationales: ◦ Size and nature of existing threats; ◦ Emerging threats; ◦ Previous operational experience; and ◦ National pride and status Copyright Adam C. Firestone, 2011. All rights reserved. 16
    • Rationales Existing threats? ◦ Strategic threat to UK significantly reduced due to end of Cold War in early 1990s ◦ Likelihood: Low Emerging threats? ◦ Post Cold-War threats generally non-state actors ◦ Special operations forces and drones more effective than cruise missiles ◦ Likelihood: Low Copyright Adam C. Firestone, 2011. All rights reserved. 17
    • Rationales Previous operational experience? ◦ Primary operational experience prior to UK acquisition was Iraq (1991) and Bosnia (1995) ◦ 400 TLAM – so where did 64 come from? ◦ Likelihood: Low Copyright Adam C. Firestone, 2011. All rights reserved. 18
    • Rationales  Pride and Status ◦ TLAM capability ensures that UK is key player in coalition warfare ◦ Ensures UK political and diplomatic status ◦ Likelihood: HIGH Copyright Adam C. Firestone, 2011. All rights reserved. 19
    • The Real Answer UK TLAM Numbers ◦ LESS determined by operational concerns ◦ MORE determined by political/diplomatic concerns The Real Result ◦ A force structure that better reflects political and strategic concerns more than the tactical concerns of the warrior in the field Copyright Adam C. Firestone, 2011. All rights reserved. 20
    • Put Another Way… Procurement drivers are often other things than current operational needs. This pattern has existed for as long as nations have had and supplied armies and navies! Let’s take a closer look at the First World War Copyright Adam C. Firestone, 2011. All rights reserved. 21
    • WORLD WAR ONE Copyright Adam C. Firestone, 2011. All rights reserved. 22
    • A Global Conflict Allies and Allied Territories in GREEN Central Powers and Territories in ORANGE Neutrals in GREY Copyright Adam C. Firestone, 2011. All rights reserved. 23
    • Unprecedented Scale Allies  Central Powers ◦ Russia: 12,000,000 ◦ Germany: 13,250,000 ◦ British Empire: 8,841,541 ◦ Austria-Hungary: 7,800,000 ◦ France and Colonies: 8,660,000 ◦ Ottoman Empire: 2,998,321 ◦ Italy: 5,093,140 ◦ Bulgaria: 1,200,000 ◦ USA: 4,743,826 ◦ Total: 25,248,321 ◦ Romania: 1,234,000 ◦ Japan: 800,000 ◦ Serbia: 707,343 68,208,171 men under ◦ Belgium: 380,00 arms around the world; ◦ Greece: 250,000 4% of the world population ◦ Portugal: 250,000 in uniform ◦ Montenegro: 50,000 ◦ Total: 42,959,850 Copyright Adam C. Firestone, 2011. All rights reserved. 24
    • Logistics Requirements Remember - 68,208,171 Copyright Adam C. Firestone, 2011. All rights reserved. 25
    • The Plans Didn’t Survive FirstContact with the Requirements! Recurrent theme: ◦ Logistics planning based on rationale other than current operational needs Example: ◦ British Army in August 1914, 707,000:  247,000 regulars  210,000 reservists  250,000 territorials ◦ 475,000 modern rifles available ◦ 320,000 older rifles available ◦ That would have been fine, save for the facts that…  …by July 1915 1,272,000 rifles had been lost in combat  …by December 1915 the army numbered 2,000,000 men Copyright Adam C. Firestone, 2011. All rights reserved. 26
    • Meeting the Need Between 1914 and 1917, Allied industry unable to keep up with demand Global search for surplus industrial capacity ◦ Not necessarily arms making capacity ◦ “A factory is a factory” concept Result: ◦ Allied hire of American industry to produce war materiel Copyright Adam C. Firestone, 2011. All rights reserved. 27
    • Quick Recap War materiel needs often calculated based on: ◦ Past experience ◦ Other than operational concerns ◦ NOT future conflict projections Resulting materiel shortage Frantic attempt to increase production to make up shortfalls The Good, Fast, Cheap Triangle World War One case studies: ◦ British rifle production in the US ◦ Russian rifle production in the US Copyright Adam C. Firestone, 2011. All rights reserved. 28
    • Case Study: United KingdomAMERICAN PRODUCTIONOF THE BRITISH PATTERN1914 RIFLE Copyright Adam C. Firestone, 2011. All rights reserved. 29
    • They Should Have Known BetterBetween 1899 and 1902, the British Empire was at war with the Boer states of Transvaal and Orange Free State Copyright Adam C. Firestone, 2011. All rights reserved. 30
    • Boer War Perceived as a “limited” war in Britain Despite the perception ◦ British Empire fielded a 500,000 man army ◦ Against a force of approximately 83,000 ◦ For more than two and a half years Enormous wastage and loss of materiel Presaged World War One ◦ Mass armies ◦ Smokeless powder repeating rifles ◦ Trenches ◦ Machine guns ◦ Barbed wire Copyright Adam C. Firestone, 2011. All rights reserved. 31
    • Condemned to Repeat - 1 Do the math: ◦ British forces, Boer War: 500,000 ◦ Modern rifles available, 1914: 475,000 ◦ Shortfall* : (-25,000) *Logistics Requirements Analysis by Analogy ◦ Assumes that the next war is of equal or lesser intensity ◦ Not a large margin for wastage or capture! Copyright Adam C. Firestone, 2011. All rights reserved. 32
    • History Repeats British battlefield experience ◦ End of 1914:  Rifle shortage impacting training of new units ◦ April 1915:  Lowland Division sent to Gallipoli with older rifles chambered for obsolete ammunition Obsolete CLLE Rifle ◦ July 1915:  1,272,000 rifles lost, captured or destroyed Copyright Adam C. Firestone, 2011. All rights reserved. 33
    • American Orders Would you Yanks build 3.8 million rifles, please? ◦ 400.000 SMLE Mk III ◦ 3.4 million Pattern 1914 Additional orders ◦ Japanese Arisaka ◦ Canadian Ross ◦ Winchester 1892 ◦ Winchester 1894 ◦ Remington Rolling Block ◦ Remington 14 ½ Copyright Adam C. Firestone, 2011. All rights reserved. 34
    • The Rifles: Pattern 1914 Development ◦ Mauser pattern rifle design begins in 1908 ◦ High velocity rimless cartridges  .256”  .276” – chosen ◦ 1,250 built at RSAF Enfield for trials in 1913  “.276 Inch Enfield Magazine Rifle Pattern of 1913”  RSAF Enfield development suspended due to outbreak of war Copyright Adam C. Firestone, 2011. All rights reserved. 35
    • The Rifles: Pattern 1914 - 3 Enter Vickers ◦ Proposals submitted to War Office in August 1914  Produce either the SMLE Mk III or Pattern 1913 rechambered for .303  Proposal accepted for Pattern 1913 production  Vickers internal designation: “.303-.276 inch rifle”  Official nomenclature Pattern 1914 Exit Vickers ◦ Only a few tool room samples produced ◦ Contract canceled on 6 July 1916 Copyright Adam C. Firestone, 2011. All rights reserved. 36
    • The Rifles: Pattern 1914 Pattern 1914 Rifle, .303” Copyright Adam C. Firestone, 2011. All rights reserved. 37
    • The Rifles: Pattern 1914 Specifications: ◦ Weight: 9lb 6oz ◦ Length: 46.25” ◦ Barrel: 26”, 1:10”, 5 groove ◦ Integral box magazine, 5 rounds ◦ .303 Mk VII ◦ Leaf sight graduated 200-1,650 yards ◦ Volley sight graduated 1500 – 2,600 yards Copyright Adam C. Firestone, 2011. All rights reserved. 38
    • The Contracts SMLE Mk III Contract ◦ Executed 17 March 1915 ◦ Agency of Imperial Contracting Company  British, offices in New York and London ◦ Prime Contractor  Hopkins and Allen, Norwich, Connecticut Cancelled in July 1915 ◦ No rifles produced Copyright Adam C. Firestone, 2011. All rights reserved. 39
    • The Contracts Seven separate contracts with three companiesManufacturer Execution Date Amount AgentWinchester 24 November 1914 200,000 Sir Courtenay W. BennettRemington-UMC 24 November 1914 200,000 Sir Courtenay W. BennettRemington-UMC 10 February 1915 200,000 J.P. Morgan & CompanyWinchester 16 March 1915 200,000 J.P. Morgan & CompanyEddystone 30 April 1915 1,500,000 J.P. Morgan & CompanyEddystone 2 August 1915 500,000 J.P. Morgan & CompanyRemington-UMC 27 September 1915 600,000 J.P. Morgan & Company 3,400,000 Copyright Adam C. Firestone, 2011. All rights reserved. 40
    • The ContractsDistinguishing the Rifles Remington Eddystone Winchester Copyright Adam C. Firestone, 2011. All rights reserved. 41
    • The Contracts Production and Delivery Delays ◦ Overly aggressive schedules ◦ Delays in factory setup and tooling delivery ◦ Raw material shortages ◦ Labor shortages ◦ Acceptance criteria disputes Copyright Adam C. Firestone, 2011. All rights reserved. 42
    • The Contracts Different contractors, different rifles ◦ 20 design alterations over course of production ◦ Not all alterations applied to all manufacturers  E.g., Winchester’s refusal to lengthen ejector ◦ Result:  Three similar rifles with few interchangeable parts and distinct nomenclature:  Pattern 1914 Mark Ie (Eddystone)  Pattern 1914 Mark 1r (Remington)  Pattern 1914 Mark 1w (Winchester) All manufacturers subject to * modification ◦ Lengthening of locking lugs and correspondingly deeper locking lug recesses Copyright Adam C. Firestone, 2011. All rights reserved. 43
    • The Contracts Reduction and Cancellation ◦ 21 October 1916 collective reduction  Winchester: 235,293  Remington-UMC: 588,236  Eddystone: 1,176,471 ◦ 11 January 1917 collective reduction  Winchester: 235,000  Remington-UMC: 400,000  Eddystone: 500,000 ◦ 12 April 1917 Cancellation  Production machinery sold to US Government for $9M Copyright Adam C. Firestone, 2011. All rights reserved. 44
    • The Contracts Final Production Figures  Winchester: 235,508 by 7 July 1917  Remington-UMC: 403,117 by 11 August 1917  Eddystone: 604,940 by 30 June 1917  Total: 1,243,565 Copyright Adam C. Firestone, 2011. All rights reserved. 45
    • Case Study: Imperial RussiaAMERICAN PRODUCTIONOF THE RUSSIAN MOSIN-NAGANT MODEL 1891RIFLE Copyright Adam C. Firestone, 2011. All rights reserved. 46
    • Lessons of the Russo-Turkish War1877-1878 Origins ◦ Balkan nationalism ◦ Russian territorial ambitions ◦ Religion For our purposes ◦ Use of breech-loading cartridge rifles ◦ Use of magazine repeating rifles Copyright Adam C. Firestone, 2011. All rights reserved. 47
    • Lessons of the Russo-Turkish War1877-1878 Plevna, 1877 Copyright Adam C. Firestone, 2011. All rights reserved. 48
    • Plevna Russian attack on entrenched Turkish forces. Turks armed with .45 Peabody-Martinis and .44 Henrys. Huge Russian losses: ◦ Second battle: 30% casualties ◦ Third battle: 34% casualties Lesson learned: ◦ Russia needs a repeating rifle Copyright Adam C. Firestone, 2011. All rights reserved. 49
    • Russian Repeater Developments 1888 – Trials at the Infantry Officer’s School Sergei Ivanovich Mosin ◦ Berdan II improvements in 1882  12 shot magazine ◦ Three-line rifle, 1890 Nagant Brothers ◦ Rifle submitted to Belgian trials, 1888 ◦ Improved, entered in Russian trials, 1890 Copyright Adam C. Firestone, 2011. All rights reserved. 50
    • A Composite Rifle Majority of the concept from Mosin’s model 1890 Nagant provided magazine, follower and interrupter concept ◦ Critical for feeding of rimmed cartridges! Finalized design approved by Tsar Alexander III in April 1891 ◦ “Three Line Rifle of the Year 1891” Copyright Adam C. Firestone, 2011. All rights reserved. 51
    • The Rifles: Mosin-Nagant M1891 Trekhlineynaya Vintovka Obraska 1891 goda Three-Line Rifle Model of the Year 1891 Mosin-Nagant Model 1891 Copyright Adam C. Firestone, 2011. All rights reserved. 52
    • The Rifles: Mosin-Nagant Specifications: ◦ Weight: 9lb 8oz ◦ Length: 51.5” ◦ Barrel: 31.5”, 1:9.45”, 4 groove ◦ Integral box magazine, 5 rounds ◦ 7.62x54mmR (.311”), M1891 ◦ Leaf sight graduated 400-3,200 arshins  One arshin is 28 inches (311 – 2489 yards) Copyright Adam C. Firestone, 2011. All rights reserved. 53
    • Russo-Japanese War 1904-1905 Copyright Adam C. Firestone, 2011. All rights reserved. 54
    • Russo-Japanese War 1904-1905 3.8 million Mosin-Nagant M1891 rifles in service Rifle performed well (even if the Army didn’t) Logistics issues General Staff Commission (Polivanov) ◦ Charged with investigating future logistics requirements ◦ Basis of estimate was major war in Europe Copyright Adam C. Firestone, 2011. All rights reserved. 55
    • Condemned to Repeat Polivanov Commission Conclusions ◦ Future major war would be from 2 – 6 months in duration ◦ Logistics calculations based on  War with Japan  Location of threat nations ◦ Initial supplies drawn from war reserve stocks ◦ Subsequent supplies delivered directly from factory Copyright Adam C. Firestone, 2011. All rights reserved. 56
    • Condemned to Repeat Polivanov Commission Recommendations ◦ 4,272,744 rifles in reserve stocks  3,924,323 Mosin-Nagant M1891  348,421 Berdan II Model 1870 Reality of the Russian Army ◦ 1,232,738 peacetime strength ◦ 3,766,585 on initial mobilization So far so good – ◦ 157,738 rifles to spare… Except – ◦ Total mobilization was 5,432,746 men ◦ No accounting for loss or wastage Copyright Adam C. Firestone, 2011. All rights reserved. 57
    • Condemned to Repeat The lucky ones – October 1914: Russian Army short 870,000 rifles Copyright Adam C. Firestone, 2011. All rights reserved. 58
    • History Repeats Russian battlefield experience Event NumberRifles needed for mobilized army 5.5 millionRifles needed for called up conscript classes 5 millionRifles needed to replace 36-48 month combat losses 7.2 millionTotal 17.7 million Polivanov Commission error of 11.1 million rifles Desperate search for surplus manufacturing capacity Copyright Adam C. Firestone, 2011. All rights reserved. 59
    • American Orders Would you Amerikanskii build 3.3 million rifles, please? Remington ◦ 1.5 million rifle sets New England Westinghouse ◦ 1.8 million rifle sets Copyright Adam C. Firestone, 2011. All rights reserved. 60
    • The Contracts - Remington First Contract (Model 34RR) ◦ 26 January 1915 ◦ 1,000,000 sets @ $30.00 ◦ Direct with Russian Government Second Contract (Model 34RR) ◦ 16 July 1915 ◦ 200,000 sets @ $30.00 ◦ Direct with Russian Government Third Contract (Model 34RR) ◦ 15 September 1915 ◦ 300,000 @ $30.00 ◦ Through J.P. Morgan as Agent for British Government Copyright Adam C. Firestone, 2011. All rights reserved. 61
    • The Contracts - Remington American Government Contract (War- Ord.No: R-309) ◦ 7 January 1918 ◦ 78,950 ◦ Direct with American Government Russian Embassy Contracts ◦ Post-Bolshevik Revolution (October 1917) ◦ 260,000 ◦ Direct with Russian Embassy Copyright Adam C. Firestone, 2011. All rights reserved. 62
    • The Contracts - Remington Actual deliveries ◦ Under contracts with Russian Government:  513,138 ◦ Under contracts with US Government:  78,950 ◦ Under contracts with Russian Embassy  260,000+ Copyright Adam C. Firestone, 2011. All rights reserved. 63
    • The Contracts - Remington Why so few? Production and Delivery Delays ◦ Overly aggressive schedules ◦ Delays in factory setup and tooling delivery ◦ Raw material shortages ◦ Labor shortages ◦ Acceptance criteria disputes Copyright Adam C. Firestone, 2011. All rights reserved. 64
    • The Contracts - Remington Reduction and Cancellation ◦ 3 November 1916  1,000,000 rifle contract reduced by 9,871 rifles  200,000 rifle contract canceled ◦ 15 November 1917  Last deliveries of Russian rifles  Plant given over to production of machine guns for US war effort Copyright Adam C. Firestone, 2011. All rights reserved. 65
    • The Contracts - Westinghouse New England Westinghouse Company Created by Westinghouse Electric and Manufacturing Company Sole purpose to make Mosin-Nagant rifles for Imperial Russian Government Factory acquisitions ◦ J. Stevens Arms and Tool Company, Chicopee Falls, Massachusetts ◦ Sears & Roebuck (Meriden) Factory, Meriden, Connecticut ◦ A.H. Fox Gun Company, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania Copyright Adam C. Firestone, 2011. All rights reserved. 66
    • The Contracts - Westinghouse First Contract ◦ 21 May 1915 ◦ 1,000,000 sets @ $26.75 ◦ Option for 800,000 more ◦ Direct with Russian Government First option exercise ◦ 17 August 1915 ◦ 800,000 sets @ $26.75 ◦ Agency of J.P. Morgan Company Modification ◦ 1 May 1917 ◦ Unit price raised to $32.75 ◦ Total production reduced to 1,000,000 ◦ Guaranteed cash flow of $1.5M/month ◦ Indemnification for a maximum loss of $5M ◦ British to share in profits Copyright Adam C. Firestone, 2011. All rights reserved. 67
    • The Contracts - Westinghouse Second option exercise ◦ December 1917 ◦ British option to secure 600,000 sets ◦ Additional option for 200,00 sets American Government Contract (War- Ord.No: R-294) ◦ 29 December 1917 ◦ 200,000 sets on cost reimbursable basis ◦ Direct with American Government Russian Embassy Contracts ◦ Options on production until 1 May 1918 Copyright Adam C. Firestone, 2011. All rights reserved. 68
    • The Contracts - Westinghouse Actual deliveries ◦ Under contracts with Russian Government/ J.P. Morgan:  1,081,490 ◦ Under contracts with US Government:  200,000 Copyright Adam C. Firestone, 2011. All rights reserved. 69
    • The Contracts - Westinghouse Why so few? Production and Delivery Delays ◦ Overly aggressive schedules ◦ Delays in factory setup and tooling delivery ◦ Raw material shortages ◦ Labor shortages ◦ Acceptance criteria disputes Copyright Adam C. Firestone, 2011. All rights reserved. 70
    • The Contracts - Westinghouse Termination ◦ February 1918  Last deliveries of Russian rifles  ALL rifles promised under modified contract delivered  Plant given over to production of machine guns for US war effort Copyright Adam C. Firestone, 2011. All rights reserved. 71
    • The ContractsDistinguishing the Rifles - Remington Copyright Adam C. Firestone, 2011. All rights reserved. 72
    • The ContractsDistinguishing the Rifles – New England Westinghouse Copyright Adam C. Firestone, 2011. All rights reserved. 73
    • NOTABLE WARTIMEUSE Copyright Adam C. Firestone, 2011. All rights reserved. 74
    • North Russia Expeditionary Force Copyright Adam C. Firestone, 2011. All rights reserved. 75
    • North Russia Expeditionary Force Allied intervention in Russian Civil War ◦ Prevent war materiel in Archangelsk from capture by Germans/Bolsheviks ◦ Rescue the stranded Czechoslovak Legion ◦ Restore the Eastern Front British arrive on 2 August 1918 ◦ 40,000 troops ◦ Armed with Westinghouse Mosin-Nagant rifles Withdrawal in early 1920 Copyright Adam C. Firestone, 2011. All rights reserved. 76
    • North Russia Expeditionary Force British Forces 2/7th Battalion, Durham Light King’s Royal Rifles Infantry Yorkshire Regiment Royal Sussex Regiment Finnish Legion East Surrey Regiment Hampshire Regiment Highland Light Infantry Royal Scots King’s (Liverpool) Regiment Oxfordshire & Royal Fusiliers Buckinghamshire Light Infantry Copyright Adam C. Firestone, 2011. All rights reserved. 77
    • PARALLELS ANDLESSONS LEARNED Copyright Adam C. Firestone, 2011. All rights reserved. 78
    • Weapon System Procurement, Thenand Now Weapon systems are procured to answer a vital national need . . . ◦ . . . but they are not necessarily procured with an eye toward their use in combat. Issues of use ◦ Expected nature of the conflict ◦ Size of the force involved ◦ Wastage and consumables Copyright Adam C. Firestone, 2011. All rights reserved. 79
    • Weapon System Procurement, Thenand Now Other competing interests ◦ Domestic Politics ◦ Budget ◦ State of the World Copyright Adam C. Firestone, 2011. All rights reserved. 80
    • Lessons and Takeaways Honest Broker ◦ Evaluate all competing requirements before recommending policy ◦ Weight and prioritize requirements  Example:  Enough rifles and spares or more artillery?  Force in being or a force that can be used in combat? Copyright Adam C. Firestone, 2011. All rights reserved. 81
    • One Possible Answer Military Futurism ◦ Strategic diagnosis of emerging security environment ◦ How to see the future rather than what to do ◦ Identify the right set of questions to frame the requirements US DoD Office of Net Assessment (ONA) ◦ Created in 1973 ◦ Led by Director of Net Assessment ◦ Develops and coordinate net assessments of  Standing, trends, and future prospects of U.S. military capabilities and military potential in comparison with those of other countries or groups of countries ◦ Identifies emerging or future threats or opportunities for the United States.[ Copyright Adam C. Firestone, 2011. All rights reserved. 82
    • One Possible Answer Honesty  Futurist develops and identifies requirements ◦ Requirements are the foundation for sound defence planning  Requirements must be assessed honestly  Without both requirements and honesty, the structure cannot stand ◦ Millennium Challenge 02 Requirements Copyright Adam C. Firestone, 2011. All rights reserved. 83
    • Nothing Exists in a Vacuum Honesty about operational requirements is step one Other constraints ◦ Fiscal – How much money do we have? ◦ Temporal – How much time do we have? ◦ External – What other threats must we face? ◦ Political – Public opinion and promises All must be weighted and considered But – the needs of the force cannot be met without an honest assessment of requirements Copyright Adam C. Firestone, 2011. All rights reserved. 84
    • Conclusion Both Britain and Russia faced shortages of critical materiel in 1914 In both cases, ◦ Ample past experience; ◦ Warning signs; and ◦ Visible trends The UK faces a shortage of critical materiel today ◦ Past experience; ◦ Warning signs; and ◦ Visible trends Learning from the past ◦ It’s a choice ◦ We owe it to the men and women who wear our uniforms ◦ If we don’t, we are condemned to repeat our mistakes Copyright Adam C. Firestone, 2011. All rights reserved. 85
    • Summary This presentation has explored recurrent issues in military acquisition programs Two lenses were used to focus the exploration ◦ A modern case from ongoing operations in Libya ◦ Historical case studies focused on Allied rifle contracts in America during World War Conclusions ◦ Applying the lessons learned from the past ◦ Military Futurism as a methodology for applying past wisdom to emerging trends ◦ Requirements and honesty Copyright Adam C. Firestone, 2011. All rights reserved. 86
    • Contacts Luke Mercaldo ◦ capmercaldo@gmail.com Adam Firestone ◦ adam.firestone@gmail.com Copyright Adam C. Firestone, 2011. All rights reserved. 87
    • The Book  Covers the history of the seven European rifles made in the USA during World War One  Authors ◦ Luke Mercaldo ◦ Adam Firestone ◦ Anthony Vanderlinden  Wet Dog Publications ◦ http://www.fn-browning.com ◦ +1-336-394-4138 Copyright Adam C. Firestone, 2011. All rights reserved. 88
    • QUESTIONS? Copyright Adam C. Firestone, 2011. All rights reserved. 89