Asian Energy Trends and Prospects for Energy Efficiency


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Peter du Pont, Chief of Party
USAID ECO-Asia Clean Development and Climate Program

Presented at
TBLI Asia Conference 2008, Bangkok, Thailand

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  • Asian Energy Trends and Prospects for Energy Efficiency

    1. 1. Asian Energy Trends and Prospects for Energy Efficiency 29 May 2008 Peter du Pont, Chief of Party USAID ECO-Asia Clean Development and Climate Program Presented at TBLI Asia Conference 2008, Bangkok, Thailand
    2. 3. U.S. contribution to offset emissions of U.S. officials flying to international Climate Change meetings
    3. 4. Overview <ul><li>From Ideas to Action: regional analysis of clean energy options </li></ul><ul><li>Lessons from Thailand’s Energy Efficiency Successes </li></ul><ul><li>Case Study of Energy-Saving Lamps: How Hard Is It to Make the Change? </li></ul>
    4. 5. From Ideas to Action: Regional Analysis of Asia’s Clean Energy Options
    5. 6. ECO-Asia Clean Development and Climate Program Geographic Coverage <ul><li>China </li></ul><ul><li>India </li></ul><ul><li>Indonesia </li></ul><ul><li>Philippines </li></ul><ul><li>Thailand </li></ul><ul><li>Vietnam </li></ul>These 6 countries account for 96% of the GDP of Asia’s developing countries
    6. 7. USAID-funded review of clean energy priorities in Asia <ul><li>Objectives </li></ul><ul><li>Identify clean energy priorities – technologies, sectors, and initiatives </li></ul><ul><li>Identify opportunities for regional action </li></ul><ul><li>Methodology </li></ul><ul><li>organized “listening tours” with 220 key energy stakeholders in the 6 countries </li></ul><ul><li>researched and prepared more than 300 profiles on clean energy institutions, policies, programs </li></ul><ul><li>prepared in-depth country reports on the clean energy opportunities in the 6 countries </li></ul>
    7. 8. Comparative Evaluation of Fuel Options <ul><li>Supply-Side Energy </li></ul><ul><li>Coal (CCT and carbon storage) </li></ul><ul><li>Petroleum </li></ul><ul><li>Natural Gas (incl. methane capture) </li></ul><ul><li>Renewables (biomass, wind, solar, small hydro, geothermal, biofuels) </li></ul><ul><li>Nuclear </li></ul><ul><li>Energy Efficiency </li></ul><ul><li>Power generation and transmission efficiency </li></ul><ul><li>End-use efficiency (buildings, appliances, lighting, industry, transport, etc.) </li></ul>
    8. 9. DEMAND DRIVERS Economic growth and increased incomes are leading to large increases in energy demand Source: APERC 2006
    9. 10. UNTAPPED EFFICIENCY But regional experience shows significant potential for efficiency improvements Efficiency gains in Korean appliances – 1993 to 2000 Source: Sun-Keun Lee, 2001
    10. 11. OIL AND ENERGY SECURITY Southeast Asia will import 70% of its oil by 2030 Source: APEC 2006 Imported Oil as Share of Total Oil Consumption
    11. 12. COAL RELIANCE (1) Coal is the “fuel of choice” for the next 15-20 years to meet demand Source: BP Statistics 2006 The share of primary energy from coal has risen from 43% in 1980, to 48% in 2005, and is projected to reach 51% in 2030. Note: This data includes all of Asia, not just developing Asia Primary Energy Mix for Asian Countries, 1980 to 2005 Oil Gas Coal Nuclear Hydro
    12. 13. COAL RELIANCE (2) Share of coal increasing dramatically in India, ASEAN Note: Thailand data are for 2021, not 2030
    13. 14. Criteria pollutant levels in Asian megacities Local air pollution has been linked to more than 500,000 premature deaths annually in Asia (WHO) LOCAL AIR POLLUTION Fossil Fuels Lead to High Particulate Levels
    14. 15. INCREASING CO2 EMISSIONS Developing Asia’s CO2 Emissions Will Increase 4-Fold Current 26 billion metric tons CO 2 2030 40 billion metric tons CO 2 Source: APERC, TERI
    15. 16. Projected CO 2 Emissions by Sector (2002 - 2030) Source: APERC, TERI ELECTRICITY IS MAJOR SOURCE More than half of CO 2 emissions from power plants 2002 2030
    16. 17. What is the Answer? There is no Single Silver Bullet <ul><li>Coal </li></ul><ul><li>Expected nearly 4-fold increase in consumption by 2030, will lead to 13 billion metric tons of annual CO 2 by 2030 </li></ul><ul><li>Petroleum </li></ul><ul><li>Import dependency to increase drastically (exporters turn into importers; others will import 70-90% of their needs) </li></ul><ul><li>Natural Gas </li></ul><ul><li>By 2030, countries will import between 40-75 percent of their needs. </li></ul><ul><li>Nuclear </li></ul><ul><li>Even with massive investment, nuclear projected to supply only approx. 4-8% of primary energy needs by 2030 (China, India, Thailand, and Vietnam) </li></ul><ul><li>Renewable Sources </li></ul><ul><li>Even with major expansion, current estimates project renewables to account for 5-10% of future energy needs by 2030 </li></ul>
    17. 18. Estimated energy delivery costs by clean energy type Typical cost of avoided electricity generation (about 6-7 US cents/kWh) Sources: Compiled from Sims et al, 2003; Sawin 2004; LBNL, 2005 and IEA, 2006 The “least cost” options are energy efficiency, and they cost ¼ to ½ as much as building a new power plant
    18. 19. Costs of carbon reductions by clean energy option A number of options can reduce CO 2 emissions at no net cost
    19. 20. Ranking of clean energy options for regional cooperation
    20. 21. Top 6 priority clean energy technologies and sectors for regional cooperation <ul><li>Energy-efficient lighting and appliances </li></ul><ul><li>Clean coal technologies </li></ul><ul><li>Renewable energy technologies </li></ul><ul><ul><li>(esp. onshore wind energy and biomass-fired electricity) </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Energy-efficiency in the transport sector </li></ul><ul><li>Biofuels for transportation </li></ul><ul><li>Methane capture </li></ul>
    21. 22. Implementing Just These Options Can Reduce Future Emissions from Asia’s Developing Economies by 25%
    22. 23. Thailands’ Energy Efficiency Success Story: Smart Policy and Finance Needed to Stimulate EE
    23. 24. Thailand’s DSM Initiatives – Focusing on the Residential Sector Source: EGAT
    24. 25. Successful Implementation of DSM in Thailand Source: DSM in Thailand: The EGAT Experience. Mrs. Napaporn Phumaraphand, Director, DSM & Planning Division, Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand (EGAT). Presented at workshop on Energy Efficiency in Power Distribution and End Use Project, Jakarta, Indonesia. 5 June., 2006 Programs AS of March 31, 2006 Peak Demand Energy Consumption Carbon Dioxide Reduction Reduction Emission Reduction (MW) (GWh) (Million tons) 1. 36 and 18 Watt Fluorescent Lamp Program 401.5 1,957.5 1.45 2. Energy Efficient Compact Fluorescent 10.0 57.2 0.04 Lamp Program       3. Energy Efficient Refrigerator Program 236.3 2,357.9 1.74 4. Energy Efficient Air-conditioner Program 640.7 2,686.2 1.87 5. Street Light Program - 17.22 0.01 6. Energy Efficient Ballast Program 13.8 85.0 0.06 7. High Efficiency Motor Program 0.2 1.2 - 8. Green Building Program 2.6 10.3 0.01 Total 1,304.8 7,172.5 5.18
    25. 26. Thailand Benchmarked Against U.S. Utilities (Cumulative Annual Energy Savings as a Percentage of Annual Utility Energy Sales) Source: EGAT data for Thailand. U.S. data from ACEEE. A Nationwide Assessment of Utility Sector Energy Efficiency . August 2006. RANK STATE PERCENTAGE OF ANNUAL KWH SALES 1 Connecticut 8.3% 2 California 7.8% 3 Minnesota 7.6% 4 Washington 7.5% 5 Vermont 7.1% 6 Oregon 6.4% 7 Massachusetts 6.3% 8 Rhode Island 6.2% THAILAND 5.2% 9 Wisconsin 4.8% 10 Montana 4.3% U.S. Average 2.1%
    26. 27. Cost Comparison of Clean Energy Options Demand Side Measures Supply Side Measures
    27. 28. Commercial Costs of DSM/EE and NT2 Resources DSM/EE is 40% of the cost of NT2
    28. 29. Comparison of DSM/EE Potentials Average cost of DSM/EE is THB 0.92/kWh 1,225 MW of DSM potential not included in PDP
    29. 30. Energy-Saving Lamps: Poster Child for a Climate Success, or a Market Failure?
    30. 31. Phase-Out of Inefficient Lighting <ul><li>40 countries have announced plans to “phase out” inefficient lamps within the next five years </li></ul><ul><li>Technically, the solution is relatively straightforward </li></ul><ul><ul><li>More efficient incandescents, halogens, CFLs, and LEDs </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Some problems with scale-up and transition </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Complete phase out could reduce annual electricity use by 800 TWh and avoid 470 million tonnes of CO2 emissions by 2010 </li></ul>Emergence of Compact Fluorescent Lamps, or CFLs
    31. 32. Global CFL Sales <ul><li>Estimating Market Size </li></ul>Annual Sales Volume (in million units) Country 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006* China (Production) 750 800 1,040 1,380 1,760 2,400 India NA 34 40 46 70* 100* Indonesia 40 50 60 70 90 Philippines 4.5 NA NA 18 25* NA Thailand NA NA NA NA 10 15 Vietnam NA NA 5.4 7.0 8.4 11* Source: IAEEL for pre-1997 data; CALI and ECO-Asia estimates for post-2007
    32. 33. Rum Smugglers circa 1810 So, What is the Problem?
    33. 34. CFL Lamp Smugglers circa 2007
    34. 35. Up to 50% of CFLs Produced in Asia are Shoddy <ul><li>Market Share by Quality </li></ul>Source: Australian Green House Office Reports 2006, and ECO-Asia 2007 <ul><li>Generally speaking, a poor-quality CFL is a lamp that burns out faster, or gives off less light, than advertised, or than prescribed by national standards and guidelines. </li></ul>
    35. 36. Worldwide, There are 43 Different Sets of Specifications for CFLs (Vary by Country)
    36. 37. Global CFL Market Growth and levelling out of global CFL demand <ul><li>Global CFLi demand has surged from 1.5 Bn (2006) to 2.5 Bio in 2008 </li></ul><ul><li>Already from 2010 the CFLi demand growth slows down followed by levelling off to a level of around 4.2 Bn as from 2014 </li></ul><ul><li>It is imperative to improve & secure adequate product quality levels in this process </li></ul>Source: Philips Lighting
    37. 38. The Way Forward <ul><li>USAID ECO-Asia CDCP is working with suppliers to develop a voluntary Quality Identification System for CFLs sold in Asia </li></ul><ul><li>The system will classify CFLs as “Good,” “Better,” and “Best” </li></ul><ul><li>Hopefully, this will become an international system for identifying and marking CFL quality </li></ul>
    38. 39. Thank You!