1<br />Integrated Scenario Analysis for the California Water Plan Update 2009<br />Rich Juricich, DWR<br />Mohammad Rayej,...
Presentation Overview<br />Water Plan Highlights and climate change <br />Scenario concepts used in California Water Plan<...
3<br />Climate Change: Stressing Our Water System (1)<br />
4<br />Average Annual Snowmelt Projections<br />
5<br />Projected Decrease in CA Snowmelt<br />
6<br />Historical & Projected Sea Level at GG<br />
7<br />American River RunoffAnnual Maximum 3-Day Flow<br />
8<br />Scenario Concepts<br />
Water Plan Scenarios Used ToConsider Future Uncertainty<br />Three plausible yet very different conditions during 2050 pla...
Scenarios Organized Around Uncertainty<br />Economic <br />and Financial<br />Institutional <br />and Political<br />Natur...
Evaluating Uncertainty Using Scenarios<br />Indicators<br />(e.g. Supply Reliability)<br />Scenario 1 <br />(with Manageme...
3 Baseline Scenarios for 2050Plausible Yet Different Futures<br /><ul><li>Recent trends continue into the future for popul...
More coordinated planning & infill
Lower population growth
Lower reduction in agricultural production
New environment water -- High
More background water conservation
Less coordinated planning, sprawl
Higher population growth
Higher reduction in agricultural production
New environment water -- Low
Less background water conservation</li></ul>Current Trends<br />Strategic Growth<br />Expansive Growth<br />12<br />
Technical Outreach for Scenarios<br />December 2007 – Scenario proposal<br />April 2008 – Shared Vision Planning<br />June...
Quantifying Future Scenariosfor Update 2009<br />Using WEAP analytical tool to quantify water demand and supplies for futu...
15<br />Future Precipitation Projections<br />Future Temperature Projections <br />Local time series of monthly weather<br...
Weather sequences drive hydrologic models to calculate:
irrigation demand (HR and PA)
hydrologic flows (PA analysis, only) </li></ul>Hydrologic Model<br />Analysis Considers Possible Climate Change Impacts<br...
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Juricich Sess11 102309

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Juricich Sess11 102309

  1. 1. 1<br />Integrated Scenario Analysis for the California Water Plan Update 2009<br />Rich Juricich, DWR<br />Mohammad Rayej, DWR<br />David Groves, RAND<br />David Yates, NCAR<br />David Purkey, SEI<br />Brian Joyce, SEI<br />Andy Draper, MWH<br />
  2. 2. Presentation Overview<br />Water Plan Highlights and climate change <br />Scenario concepts used in California Water Plan<br />Application of scenarios to statewide Hydrologic Regions<br />Summary of climate information in Water Plan Update 2009<br />2<br />
  3. 3. 3<br />Climate Change: Stressing Our Water System (1)<br />
  4. 4. 4<br />Average Annual Snowmelt Projections<br />
  5. 5. 5<br />Projected Decrease in CA Snowmelt<br />
  6. 6. 6<br />Historical & Projected Sea Level at GG<br />
  7. 7. 7<br />American River RunoffAnnual Maximum 3-Day Flow<br />
  8. 8. 8<br />Scenario Concepts<br />
  9. 9. Water Plan Scenarios Used ToConsider Future Uncertainty<br />Three plausible yet very different conditions during 2050 planning horizon<br />Explore key uncertainties facing water community<br />Factors water community has little control over<br />Not predictions ---- used to evaluate water management responses<br />9<br />
  10. 10. Scenarios Organized Around Uncertainty<br />Economic <br />and Financial<br />Institutional <br />and Political<br />Natural <br />Systems<br />Technology<br />Social<br />Practices<br />10<br />
  11. 11. Evaluating Uncertainty Using Scenarios<br />Indicators<br />(e.g. Supply Reliability)<br />Scenario 1 <br />(with Management<br />Response )<br />Scenario 3 (baseline)<br />Scenario 2 (baseline)<br />Scenario 1 (baseline)<br />Water Portfolios<br />Uncertainties:<br />Future Climate <br />Population Growth<br />Land Use Patterns<br />Economic Cycles<br />2050<br />Today<br />11<br />
  12. 12. 3 Baseline Scenarios for 2050Plausible Yet Different Futures<br /><ul><li>Recent trends continue into the future for population, agricultural production, environmental water, and background water conservation
  13. 13. More coordinated planning & infill
  14. 14. Lower population growth
  15. 15. Lower reduction in agricultural production
  16. 16. New environment water -- High
  17. 17. More background water conservation
  18. 18. Less coordinated planning, sprawl
  19. 19. Higher population growth
  20. 20. Higher reduction in agricultural production
  21. 21. New environment water -- Low
  22. 22. Less background water conservation</li></ul>Current Trends<br />Strategic Growth<br />Expansive Growth<br />12<br />
  23. 23. Technical Outreach for Scenarios<br />December 2007 – Scenario proposal<br />April 2008 – Shared Vision Planning<br />June 2008 – Refinement of scenario proposal<br />Climate change<br />Environmental water<br />Flood management<br />Water quality<br />February 2009 – Review of preliminary demands<br />June 2009 – Review of revised results & graphics<br />July 2009 – Climate TAG<br />13<br />
  24. 24. Quantifying Future Scenariosfor Update 2009<br />Using WEAP analytical tool to quantify water demand and supplies for future scenarios and water management responses<br />WEAP Hydrologic Region analysis being done for all regions --- high level, coarse representation<br />WEAP Planning Area analysis for Sacramento and San Joaquin regions --- more physically based<br />Each scenario evaluated with 12 climate sequences (climate change, multiple year droughts, wet years)<br />14<br />
  25. 25. 15<br />Future Precipitation Projections<br />Future Temperature Projections <br />Local time series of monthly weather<br /><ul><li>Statistical downscaling methods produce local weather sequences*
  26. 26. Weather sequences drive hydrologic models to calculate:
  27. 27. irrigation demand (HR and PA)
  28. 28. hydrologic flows (PA analysis, only) </li></ul>Hydrologic Model<br />Analysis Considers Possible Climate Change Impacts<br /><ul><li>Global circulation models produce numerous projections of future temperature and precipitation patterns
  29. 29. Six GCMs
  30. 30. Two global emissions scenarios </li></ul>* Using the World Climate Research Programme&apos;s (WCRP&apos;s) Coupled Model<br />Intercomparison Project phase 3 (CMIP3) multi-model dataset <br />
  31. 31. Hydrologic Region Scale Analysis<br />16<br />
  32. 32. Hydrologic Region Analysis<br />Monthly, climate-driven demands to 2050<br />reflect global climate change projections<br />Agriculture, Urban, and Environmental sectors<br />Simple representation of supplies possible<br />17<br />All 10 Hydrologic Regions<br />
  33. 33. Framework for Statewide Scenarios<br />Response packages evaluated using Planning Area model for select Hydrologic Regions<br />New!<br />New!<br />Supply and environmental flows<br />addressed using Planning Area model<br />18<br />
  34. 34. 19<br />Water Scenarios 2050: Range of Considerations<br />
  35. 35. 20<br />3 Future Scenarios: Key Factors of Uncertainty<br />
  36. 36. 21<br />Legend: Water Demand Changes& Climate Change Variability<br />
  37. 37. 22<br />2050 Water Demand Changes <br />by Sector & Scenario<br />
  38. 38. Climate change increases variability and range of future statewide water demands<br />23<br />
  39. 39. Regional Water Demand Changes by Scenario<br />24<br />
  40. 40. Planning Area AnalysisSacramento and San Joaquin River Regions<br />Hydrologically-based water system simulation by month to 2050 <br />reflect global climate change projections<br />Estimate environmental flows, system operations, deliveries, and reliability <br />More direct representation of response packages<br />25<br />Sacramento<br />River<br />San Joaquin<br />River<br />Sacramento River & <br />San Joaquin River<br />Hydrologic Regions<br />
  41. 41. Climate Information in Update 2009<br />Highlights<br />Volume 1<br />Chapter 4 – California Water Today<br />Chapter 5 – Managing an Uncertain Future<br />Chapter 6 – Integrated Data and Analysis<br />Volume 4 Reference guide<br />Climate Adaptation Strategy<br />Climate Science<br />26<br />
  42. 42. Summary<br />Water Plan uses scenarios to capture future uncertainties like population growth, land use changes, and climate change<br />Water Plan shows water demands out to 2050 using 3 scenarios and 12 climate sequences<br />As part of Update 2009 we have piloted finer detail analysis at Planning Area scale<br />Pre-Final draft of Water Plan is available on-line and contains a wealth of information on California water management.<br />27<br />
  43. 43. Reference Information<br />Rich Juricich<br />juricich@water.ca.gov<br />(916) 651-9225<br />Water Plan Update 2009<br />http://www.waterplan.water.ca.gov/cwpu2009<br />SWAN<br />http://www.waterplan.water.ca.gov/swan<br />28<br />

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