Bigornia Sess10 102809


Published on

Published in: Technology
  • Be the first to comment

  • Be the first to like this

No Downloads
Total views
On SlideShare
From Embeds
Number of Embeds
Embeds 0
No embeds

No notes for slide
  • November 8, 2009
  • Water Management Whittier Narrow dam in southern california is a dry project… most of the time. About 12 years ago, that vacant land looked pretty valuable to numerous developers. Suddenly, a swarm of applicants wanted to build auto malls, hospitals, thaetres, etc. in this highly desirable location.
  • Our dams are old. The age of the dams increases the importance of dam safety awareness.
  • This slide shows a schematic of a typical complex system Especially with backwater effects, upstream dams, and changing development patterns In 1997, El Nino brought warm storms onto an above-average snowpack We faced the prospect of 14 dam spills in the central valley over one infamous weekend during the El Nino driven flood season. Note where Sacramento sits and where Olivehurst sits What if…
  • Many rural communities along a 125 mile stretch suffered from levee breaches Could have been an urban area like Sacramento
  • For our dams, there has been much planning done beforehand, and regulation plans were developed to account for many basin characteristics such as snowpack density , ground wetness, forecasted rainfalls and other human parameters, such as agricultural needs later in the year. These plans of how much water to release from the dam are codified in laws… but cannot account for every situation, so tough decisions are constantly being made.
  • 11/08/09 SPD/Bigornia System complexities… Upstream projects New urban development Levee adequacy? Maintenance, floodfight, ICW/RIP. inventory Rotenone white bass Water supply at our projects vs flood control in Tulare Lakebed USBR and State Water Project Deviations
  • This is important because we need to forecast how much water will be able to be conatined in our reservoirs’ flood pools. While operating the dams, many conflicting interests need to be prioritized, with residual risk in mind. In this diagram, we need to figure out how much water to release from the dam, and when to do it. These decisions might be made hourly, or even more often. In a typical operation scenario, we could have endangered species nesting at the edge of the reservoir, and downstream , there could be agricultural fields, a bridge crossing and homes, all potentially damaged at different water levels. How much water needs to be released to minimize damage… and when…
  • Another complex system is the Colorado River. Our dry Painted Rock Dam filled its 2.5 MAF capacity with a 200-yr event in 1993. We held water back to avoid overtopping levees and nearly ended up with a catastrophe on our hands.
  • After several weeks of spill, we examined the spillway, and found that we were a little lucky. We came about this close to spillway failure. Had the spillway eroded a few more feet, a couple of million acre feet would have rushed into the Colorado River at Yuma and into Mexico
  • Another complication is that vegetation is home to many threatened and endangered species, especially in our region with over 300 TES in California alone.
  • NEPA is thought of as the umbrella overseeing all other environmental compliance.
  • Your roles as project managers is not enviable, in that you have to juggle so many different goals, with such limited resources. The water control team at the division is working to help your team balance and juggle all these competing interests under the scrutiny of each of those competing interests. We’re proud to be a part of your team.
  • So after the recovery, it is once again time for us to evaluate what has happened, to apply any lessons learned into being better positioned and prepared for future flood events. The evaluation and preparation really brings us back to the beginning of the cycle the planning, which leads to designing and building…
  • Nadruk op wat de beslisser kan doen, welke info heeft hij nodig? Wij kijken daar naar over alle disciplines heen en integreren waar nodig.
  • **More than 350 miles of levees in the southeast Louisiana area **41 miles sustained severe damage **128 miles of levee sustained minor damage 5 Parishes 350 Miles of Levee/Floodwall 68 Pumping Stations (Fed & Non-Fed) 4 Gated Outlets
  • November 8, 2009
  • Precipitation Hydrology and hydraulics Hurricane tracks, wind and surge Infrastructure response to loadings Levee integrity and system response Real-time floodplan flows Evacuation Special motel considerations Levee system interrelationships Risk analysis November 8, 2009
  • Towards a smart, networked flood control organization Improve quality of decision making during emergencies Better knowledge of crisis decision making and uncertainties Fast and real time prediction of calculated risks Education and training, scenario studies, design, O&M Integration of Dutch flood control expertise and IBM IT knowledge November 8, 2009
  • Content is same as previous slide. Change background by changing Slide Color Scheme (Menu > Format > Slide Color Scheme...)
  • And we also work together on research. This is a plane that the NWS flies into El Nino storms to drop data-gathering electronics through the atmosphere and into the ocean to retrieve important meteorological and oceanographic information. We are very interested in other agencies’ improvements in forecasting technologies, as that will ultimately help our flood damage reduction mission.
  • **More than 350 miles of levees in the southeast Louisiana area **41 miles sustained severe damage **128 miles of levee sustained minor damage 5 Parishes 350 Miles of Levee/Floodwall 68 Pumping Stations (Fed & Non-Fed) 4 Gated Outlets
  • **More than 350 miles of levees in the southeast Louisiana area **41 miles sustained severe damage **128 miles of levee sustained minor damage 5 Parishes 350 Miles of Levee/Floodwall 68 Pumping Stations (Fed & Non-Fed) 4 Gated Outlets
  • **More than 350 miles of levees in the southeast Louisiana area **41 miles sustained severe damage **128 miles of levee sustained minor damage 5 Parishes 350 Miles of Levee/Floodwall 68 Pumping Stations (Fed & Non-Fed) 4 Gated Outlets
  • November 8, 2009
  • Bigornia Sess10 102809

    1. 1. Developing an ‘Intelligent’ Flood Management System Imagine the result SAME Water Conference October 28, 2009 Boni Bigornia Vice President ARCADIS
    2. 2. Developing An ‘Intelligent’ Flood Management System
    3. 3. Outline <ul><li>Existing “Systems” and Natural Threats </li></ul><ul><li>Additional Complications </li></ul><ul><li>Needs for an Intelligent Flood System </li></ul><ul><li>The Big Picture – Life Cycle Management </li></ul><ul><li>The Nerve Center </li></ul><ul><li>Smart Levees </li></ul><ul><li>Decision Making Guidebook </li></ul><ul><li>Planning Ahead - Flood Plain Management </li></ul><ul><li>Innovative Measures </li></ul>
    4. 4. What is Real-Time Water Management?
    5. 5. EL. 184.0 ft. EL. 239.0 ft. EL. 228.5 ft. EL. 238.9 ft. EL. 208.0 ft. EL. 201.6 ft. 30,905 AC - FT FLOOD CONTROL 2,498 AC - FT Joint FC and Water Supply Cross Over Weir Weir Separating East & West Pit EL. 188.0 ft. 31,742 AC - FT SPILLWAY SURCHARGE EL. 200.0 ft. Rio Hondo San Gabriel River Taking Line EL. 229.0 ft. 9 - 50’Wx29’H Spillway Gates 55 ft 4 - 30’Wx20H’ Outlet Gates 252 Acres 2,411 Acres 2,498 AC - FT 65,677 AC - FT EL. 213.5 ft. 532 AC - FT Joint FC and Water Supply Based on: WNSG - April 1978 Survey Data WNRH - August 1977 Survey Data EL. 220.15 ft. Parking Lot Ground Floor 3,622 Acres EL. 231.15 ft. Building Ground Floor 50 yr EL 221.8 100 yr EL 227.0 200 yr El 230.0 33,935 AC - FT Flood Basins or Something Else? EO 11988 – Floodplain Management?
    6. 6. Water Management Decisions
    7. 7. Real Time Water Management in the Central Valley - Multi-Purpose Reservoirs flood control conservation
    8. 8. ORO BUL FOL CMN INV BLB SHA Feather Yuba American Consumnes Stony Cr Yolo Bypass Sacramento Basin • [ 79k ] Bend Bridge Tisdale Weir Ord Ferry Moulton Weir Yuba City • Colusa Weir • Sacramento Rio Vista Sutter Bypass Cache Cr Rumsey [ 300k ] [ 100k ] [ 15k ] [ 10k ] [ 20k ] [ Channel Capacity ] [ 5k ] [ 115k ] [ 50k ] [ 120k ] Marysville [ 150k ] • Nicholas • • Fremont Weir • • Mokelumne Antioch • DELTA Systems Considerations 180-yr 80-yr 180-yr
    9. 9. What Could Have Happened? Feather River levee break in ’97 West Sacramento
    10. 10. Water Management Complications
    11. 11. Water Management Complications Storage in Thousand acre-feet Flood control reservation in thousand acre-feet (Negative values for use only with adjustment criteria). Rain Flood Snowmelt Flood Flood Control Diagram for: Friant Dam, Millerton Lake San Joaquin River, California Maximum Flood Control Reservation 390,000 ac-ft Precipitation Parameters 170,000 ac-ft
    12. 12. The Tulare Basin - A Typically Complex Basin FRI PNF TRM SCC ISB Buena Vista Lake Bed Mendota Pool Tulare Lakebed California Aqueduct San Joaquin R. Kings R. (8 kcfs) Kaweah R. Tule R. Kern R. Kern River Intertie (<1kcfs) Mammoth Pool (SCE) 123 kAF Wishon (PG&E) 123 kAF Courtright (PG&E) 128 kAF 390/520 kAF 1,637 sq.mi. 1,000kAF 1,545 sq.mi. 143 kAF 561 sq.mi. 82 kAF 391 sq.mi. 570 kAF 1,009 sq.mi. BDC 30/46 kAF 82 sq.mi. McKay’s Point Madera Canal (1kcfs) Friant-Kern Canal (4kcfs) Chowchilla Canal Eastside Bypass (5.5kcfs) (2.5 kcfs) (4.75 kcfs) (5.5 kcfs) (3.5 kcfs) (4.6 kcfs) (3.2 kcfs) Army Weir Crescent Weir St. John’s R. Cross Crk. 40 k 60-103 k San Joaquin R. Delta-Mendota Canal Porterville (10kcfs) Fresno (8 kcfs) Visalia Bakersfield (125y) (45y) (36y) (333y) Fresno Slough (25y) Cottonwood Crk Gould Canal Fresno Canal
    13. 13. Water Management Decisions for Balancing Impacts Associated Damages Release From Dam $ 2 M $ 400 K $ 100 K 10,000 cfs 3,000 cfs 1,000 cfs 2 ft Water Conservation
    14. 14. Glen Cyn Dam Hoover Dam Little Colorado River Clover Creek Mathews Cyn Dam Pine Cyn Dam Meadow Valley Wash ALMO DAM Bill Williams River Imperial Dam Salt River San Francisco River Stewart Mt. Dam Mormon Flat Dam Horse Mesa Dam Roosevelt Dam Tat Momolikot Dam Coolidge Dam Gila River Santa Cruz River San Pedro River PTRK DAM New Waddell Dam Bartlett Dam Horseshoe Dam Salt River Salt River Santa Rosa Wash Gila River Gila River Granite Reef Dam Verde River Agua Fria Coachella Canal All American Canal Parker Dam Headgate Rock Dam Las Vegas Holbrook Flagstaff Phoenix Yuma Lees Ferry Gila River Colorado River Gulf of California MWD Colorado River Aqueduct . Needles . Parker Palo Verde Div. Dam . Blythe Laguna Dam Morelos Dam . Tucson Salton Sea Davis Dam [ 45 K ] [ 28 K ] [ 40 K ] [ 28 K ] [ 20 K ] [ 180 K ] [ 180 K ] [ 7 K ] [ 4 K ] [ 35 K ] [ 7 K ] [ 0.3 K ] [ 10 K ] [ 5 K ] [ 20 K ] CA Mexico AZ UT NV Water Management – Risk Management 1983 1993
    15. 15. Water Management to Avoid Dam Spills!!
    16. 16. Painted Rock Dam Spillway Erosion Didn’t look bad during the flood!
    17. 17. Impacts of Vegetation on Levees Vegetation attracts burrowing animals which create tunnels and create piping and seepage problems
    18. 18. … from 1994 pub indicating species endangerment patterns in the U.S. greatest number next greatest least greatest minimal number Endangered Species Hot Spots
    20. 20. Threats to a Water Control Manager/Flood System <ul><li>Riverine floods </li></ul><ul><li>Debris flows, fires </li></ul><ul><li>Hurricane floods, surges, wind </li></ul><ul><li>1986 Cost-Sharing - Systems aren’t systems </li></ul><ul><li>Juggling conflicting interests </li></ul><ul><li>Funding shortages or priorities </li></ul><ul><li>Maintenance of levees </li></ul><ul><li>Policies versus laws versus politics </li></ul>
    21. 21. Complications to Consider in all Water Management Decisions <ul><li>Laws and legal repercussions – rule curves, NEPA </li></ul><ul><li>National, State, and local policies </li></ul><ul><li>Funds available now and in the future (PL 84-99) </li></ul><ul><li>Uncertainties and consequences (gaging, model and data imperfections) </li></ul><ul><li>Unanticipated constraints (surfers, nests) </li></ul><ul><li>System impacts </li></ul>
    22. 22. Balancing/Juggling Project Purposes and Public Values Flood Control Hydro- power Reservoir recreation Urban Runoff D/s levees D/s fish Reservoir fish D/s wildlife Reservoir Wildlife D/s Recreation Laws Dissolved Oxygen Temperature M&I Water Supply Agriculture Reservoir Easements Public Politicians Resource Agencies
    23. 23. A Water Control Manager’s Needs for Flood Risk Management <ul><li>More data </li></ul><ul><li>Better integrated models </li></ul><ul><li>More knowledge of physics – verified analytic techniques </li></ul><ul><li>Better understanding of risks and uncertainties </li></ul><ul><li>Better understanding of system impacts and consequences </li></ul><ul><li>Decision making tools to understand risks and tradeoffs of decisions in the real-time </li></ul><ul><li>Decision making tools to understand impacts of decisions and actions in the long term – life cycle planning </li></ul>
    24. 24. The Water Control Manager MUST Consider the Bigger Picture <ul><li>Real-Time Operations (daily decisions) </li></ul><ul><li>Contingencies (emergency management) </li></ul><ul><li>Planning and Design (resiliency, robustness, and sustainability) </li></ul><ul><li>Funding and Support Programs (federal, state, local, non-government organizations, private interests) </li></ul>
    25. 25. The Big Picture is Life Cycle Management <ul><li>Cycle of Events </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Actions Before an Event – Planning, Designing, Building </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Actions During an Event – Real Time </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Actions After an Event – Recovery </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Evaluation, Preparation… </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>i.e., Actions Before an Event – Planning, Designing, Building </li></ul></ul>Natural Event Human Activity Actions During Event Response After Event Modify Human Activity Preparation in case of natural event
    26. 26. Intelligent Flood Protection System
    27. 27. Key Components in a Nerve Center <ul><li>New technologies, research, and lessons learned (New Orleans, IJkDijk, ERDC, Deltares, NOAA) </li></ul><ul><li>Linking databases and models </li></ul><ul><li>Increased monitoring and high-level analyses </li></ul><ul><li>Coordinated action plans </li></ul><ul><li>Contingency plans, and redundant communication chains </li></ul><ul><li>Decision making tools </li></ul><ul><li>Life Cycle Planning Tools </li></ul>
    28. 28. Top-down View of Information Needs Meteorology Water levels Breach locations Flood mapping
    29. 29. Nerve Center – Data In <ul><li>Where Water Management </li></ul><ul><li>Decisions are made </li></ul><ul><li>based on: </li></ul><ul><li>Smart Levees </li></ul><ul><li>Other telemetry </li></ul><ul><li>Forecasting Systems </li></ul><ul><li>GIS </li></ul><ul><li>Underlying Models </li></ul><ul><li>Trigger Thresholds </li></ul>
    30. 30. Inspection and Monitoring Data Continuous Electric Sounding Thermal Infrared Spectroscopy Laser Scanning
    31. 31. And Remote Levee Sensor Monitoring Data- “Smart Levees” **BOTDR = Brillouin Optical Time Domain Reflectometry
    32. 32. IJkdijk – Slope Stability test site IJkdijk – Slope Stability Test Site
    33. 33. Macro Stability Experiment The levee was subjected to natural forces by several activities under controlled circumstances and collapsed on Saturday the 27th of September at 16.02 PM.
    34. 34. One Sensor System – Network of GeoBeads™ <ul><li>Based on chipsensors </li></ul><ul><li>Multiple parameters </li></ul><ul><li>Focussed on ground stability monitoring </li></ul><ul><li>Real time data gathering </li></ul><ul><li>Modular and scalable network </li></ul><ul><li>‘ Plug and measure’ </li></ul><ul><li>Remote visualisation & interpretation </li></ul>L x D: 150 x 22 mm 1
    35. 35. A Second Sensor System - HydroDetect Geotextile Fabric with Fiber Optics Water channel (hole, crack, root) WATER Leak detection : Warning! 2
    36. 36. A Third Sensor System – Ported Cable with Fiber Optics tested by ERDC 3
    37. 37. Example Design Indicating all Sensor Systems Dutch Experiences on Levees
    38. 38. Leaky cable resistivity GeoBeads GeoDETECT Water depth & temperature Gold, Silver + Bronze “ Gold” “ Bronze” “ Silver”
    39. 39. SMART Levee Test System GeoBeads Pore Pressure, Temperature and Inclinometer MEMS GeoDETECT Fiber optic temperature and stress Leaky Cable Resistivity Water Depth and Temperature Sensors Meteorological data station LAN WAN Iridium or VSAT Monitoring and analysis center
    40. 40. Key Levee Data piezometer_point borehole_point sand_boil_point flood_fight_point levee_failure_point cross_section_line encroachment_point floodwall_line levee_centerline protected_area pump_station_point levee_relief_well_point closure_structure_line levee_crossing_point levee_station_point gravity_drain_line rehabilitation_line toe_drain_line
    41. 42. GIS overlays to support real-time modeling <ul><li>Roads </li></ul><ul><li>Utilities </li></ul><ul><li>Hospitals </li></ul><ul><li>Safe houses </li></ul><ul><li>Sewer and water treatment plants </li></ul><ul><li>Vegetation and ecosystem </li></ul><ul><li>Land development </li></ul><ul><li>Construction stockpiles and equipment warehouses </li></ul>
    42. 43. Underlying Models <ul><li>Precipitation </li></ul><ul><li>Hydrology and hydraulics </li></ul><ul><li>Hurricane tracks, wind and surge </li></ul><ul><li>Infrastructure response to loadings </li></ul><ul><li>Levee integrity and system response </li></ul><ul><li>Scenario Floodplain flows </li></ul><ul><li>Evacuation </li></ul><ul><li>Special model considerations </li></ul>
    43. 44. DATA TRANSLATION STRENGTH ON MAP X  X  F grond geom. stijgh. STRENGTH CHARACTERISTIC CONSEQUENCES INPUT CONVERSION OUTPUT levee sections calcuation profile design situation SCHEMATICS CLASSICAL ASSESSMENT ETL, EC, ER, EM SOPs Judgement 0,8 0,9 1,0 1,1 1,2 1,3 1,4 1,5 1,6 geometriy geology groundwater etc.
    44. 45. <ul><li>Integration of hydraulic loads and boundary conditions </li></ul><ul><li>Levee strengths </li></ul><ul><li>Forecasting Systems </li></ul><ul><li>Failure mechanisms </li></ul><ul><li>Flood scenarios </li></ul>Nerve Center – Decisions Out
    45. 46. Simplified Communications
    46. 47. Phased Action Plans and Contingency Planning <ul><li>System Operations/Water Management Decisions (e.g., SOPs, operational deviations, coordination meetings) </li></ul><ul><li>Advance Notifications and Warnings </li></ul><ul><li>Flood Fighting Prioritization </li></ul><ul><li>Evacuation Options </li></ul><ul><li>Rescues </li></ul>
    47. 48. Pre-Established Evacuation Plan Modeling <ul><li>Demand Data </li></ul><ul><li>Population Types </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Permanent Residents </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Transient Population </li></ul><ul><li>Special Facilities </li></ul><ul><li>Vehicle Occupancy Rates (VORs) </li></ul>Vehicular demand Warning System EAS, TARs, Sirens Warning diffusion and mobilization distribution curves Loading distribution curves <ul><li>Supply Data </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Speed Limits </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Number of Lanes </li></ul><ul><li>Contraflow Plan </li></ul>Traffic flow capacities Traffic Assignment Models (User Equilibrium, System Equilibrium, Dynamic Assignment) Measure of Effectiveness (MOEs) : Evacuation time estimates (ETEs), clearance times, average travel times, queuing analysis, average traffic flow, average speed, average density. Flood Modeling Figure XXX: Intelligent & Integrated Evacuation Planning, Modeling, and Response
    48. 49. Evacuation Plan Activation
    49. 50. Contingency Planning <ul><li>Safe Houses </li></ul><ul><li>Rapid Breach Repair </li></ul><ul><li>Levee Superiority (reinforced overflow levees) </li></ul><ul><li>Boat/Helicopter rescue </li></ul>
    50. 51. Trigger Thresholds Graphic <ul><li>Actual Rainfall </li></ul><ul><li>Forecasted Wind and Surge </li></ul><ul><li>Forecasted Water Levels </li></ul><ul><li>Forecasted Levee Response to Loads </li></ul><ul><li>Actual Levee Response to Loads </li></ul><ul><li>System Performance Observations </li></ul><ul><li>Special Circumstances/Emergencies </li></ul>
    51. 52. Decision-Making <ul><li>Use pre-established (and pre-practiced) Guidebook that… </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Uses pre-established trigger thresholds and forecast models to outlay risks and tradeoffs </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Evaluates potential consequences to life safety and property, including critical infrastructure </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Establishes a process to communicate status and potential hazard scenarios to decision-makers on federal, state, and local emergency teams </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Evaluates support from federal, state, and local sources and engage resources </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Adjusts the action item flowchart as risks are updated by data and field observations </li></ul></ul>
    52. 53. Continuous Planning <ul><li>Life Cycle Planning! </li></ul><ul><li>Actions BEFORE an event planning, designing, building </li></ul><ul><li>Actions DURING an event operation </li></ul><ul><li>Actions AFTER an event recovery, evaluation, preparation </li></ul>
    53. 54. Flood Risk Management – Buying Down Risk
    54. 55. Flood Plain Management Graphic <ul><li>Public information </li></ul><ul><li>Mapping and regulations </li></ul><ul><li>Evacuation Plans </li></ul><ul><li>Flood preparedness </li></ul><ul><li>Non Structural Floodproofing </li></ul><ul><li>FEMA Community Rating System and USACE Floodplain Management Plans </li></ul><ul><li>Innovative Measures </li></ul>
    55. 56. NOAA Hurricane Hunters P-3 Hurricane Hunter “notches” (Doppler RADAR mounted under fuselage). Preparing Wind Dropsondes and AXBT’s
    56. 57. Innovative Measures Glass levees, floating structures
    57. 58. Innovative Measures Concrete levee and concrete sliding flood gates
    58. 59. Innovative Measures Levee Superiority
    59. 60. Summary
    60. 61. Who is ARCADIS? ARCADIS offers project and construction management, design, engineering and consultancy services on issues in society relating to Infrastructure, Environment, Buildings and Water.
    61. 62. Lessons Learned… 28 October 2009 © 2009 ARCADIS
    62. 63. Lessons Learned
    63. 64. Questions?