Henk van Schaik - Water and Climate Change, Bridging Gaps

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Henk van Schaik - Water and Climate Change, Bridging Gaps

  1. 1. AQUA 2009 Integrated Water Resource Management and Climate Change Cali, November 9, 2009 Water and Climate Change Bridging Gaps Henk van Schaik
  2. 2. CPWC Started 2001 after Third Assessment Report of IPCC 2001 – 2005: Building awareness on climate variability and change – International events: WWF, WWW, IWA – Documentation: books and films – Local dialogues Since 2005: Towards operational responses – International events: WWF, WWW, COP, IWA, WASH, Mediterranean – Information and expertise: Expert Pools and clearing houses WCC, Nairobi Work Programme. DFID, EC, – Network building of practitioners: Connecting Delta Cities – Adaptation programmes: Indonesia, Vietnam, Egypt, Bangladesh
  3. 3. Coping with climate change: top priority Climate change is one of the most fundamental challenges ever to confront humanity. No issue is more fundamental to long-term global prosperity. And no issue is more essential to our survival as a species Summit on Climate Change for Heads of States and Governments, New York, 22 September, 2009 IPCC 2007: By 2020 50 % yield loss in rain fed agric; by 2050 200 million people displaced because of climate; snow melt affecting one billion people. Climate change became a top priority in less than 10 years
  4. 4. C(H)openhagen??? Commitments to mitigation ……how much and by whom? % of reduction and finance Adaptation: vulnerability of LDCs Finance: polluter pays or from ODA budgets Europe agreed on 20 billion/annum from 2020 and 5-7 billion for developing countries on voluntary basis immediately for mitigation and adaptation
  5. 5. COP-15 and Adaptation policies … COP-15: NAPAs regularly to be updated Vulnerable areas including: – Least Developed Countries – Small island Developing States – Countries in Africa affected by drought, desertification and floods Capacity building: Nairobi Work Programme Adaptation Fund: 70 % for LDCs, SIDS and countries in Africa, and 30 % for Disasters Water as medium, water as sector….
  6. 6. Water is the medium……..
  7. 7. WE NEED MORE THAN JUST LOOKING AT THE PROBLEM RES8552
  8. 8. Facts and Forecasts Climate Change and Water: The IPCC Technical Report June 2008 reviewed scientific articles till end 2005
  9. 9. What is the IPCC? Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Scientific intergovernmental body set up by WMO and UNEP - governments are members of IPCC - scientists contribute to IPCC assessments IPCC does not conduct research: it’s role is to assess research IPCC reports are policy-relevant, but policy- neutral
  10. 10. Emission scenarios Globalisation Economic Golden Age Sustainable development A1 Balanced A1 Fossil A1 Technology B1 Emphasis on material wealth Emphasis on sustainability and equity A2 B2 Regional solutions Cultural diversity Regionalisation
  11. 11. Future projections of climate change Best estimate of low emission scenario (B1) is 1.8 ºC (range 1.1-2.9) Best estimate of high emission scenario A1F1 is 4.0 ºC (range 2.4-6.4) Hardly any differences between scenarios for the near future IPCC 2007
  12. 12. Climate change effects on water resources Growth in population, energy demand, changes in technological and land-sue/cover Energy-economy models Greenhouse gases emissions Carbon cycle and other chemical models Atmospheric GHGs concentrations Climate models Future climate projections Hydrological + hydraulic models Future hydrological projections
  13. 13. Precipitation will probably – Increase in the high latitudes – Decrease in most sub-tropical regions
  14. 14. Change in average runoff A1b emissions scenario, multi-model ensemble mean, change by 2090-2099 relative to 1980-1999. White areas denote regions with little agreement
  15. 15. Water Stress Changes to 2025 • 80% of future stress from population & development, • Climate change additional! UNH Vörösmarty et al. 2000
  16. 16. IPCC Technical Paper on Water Figure 5.8: Trends in annual rainfall in (a) South America (1960–2000). An increase is shown by a plus sign, a decrease by a circle; bold values indicate significance at P ≤ 0.05 (reproduced from Haylock et al. (2006) with permission from the American Meteorological Society). (b) Central America and northern South America (1961–2003). Large red triangles indicate positive significant trends, small red triangles indicate positive non-significant trends, large blue triangles indicate negative significant trends, and small blue triangles indicate negative non-significant trends (reproduced from Aguilar et al. (2005) with permission from the American Geophysical Union. [WGII Figure 13.1]
  17. 17. Areal extent of Chacaltaya Glacier, Bolivia, from 1940 to 2005. By 2005, the glacier had separated into three distinct small bodies. The position of the ski hut, which did not exist in 1940, is indicated with a red cross. The ski lift had a length of about 800 m in 1940 and about 600 m in 1996 (shown by a continuous line in 1940 and a broken line in all other panels) and was normally installed during the precipitation season. After 2004, skiing was no longer possible. Photo credits: Francou and Vincent (2006) and Jordan (1991). [WGII Figure 1.1]
  18. 18. Current trends in precipitation (WGII Table 13.2) Change shown in % unless otherwise indicated Period Percentage Amazonia – northern/southern (Marengo, 2004) 1949-1999 -11 to – 17/-23 to +18 1949–1999 -11 to -17 / -23 to Bolivian Amazonia (Ronchail et al., 2005) Since 1970 +15 Argentina – central and north-east (Penalba and 1900–2000 +1 SD to +2 SD Vargas, 2004) Uruguay (Bidegain et al., 2005) 1961-2002 +20 Chile – central (Camilloni, 2005) last 50 years -50 Colombia (Pabón, 2003) 1961–1990 -4 to +6
  19. 19. Table 5.6: Increase in the numbers of people living in waterstressed watersheds in Latin America (million) based on the HadCM3 GCM (Arnell, 2004). [WGII Table 13.6] 1995 2025 2055 Scenario Without With Without With and GCM A1 22,2 35,7 21,0 54,0 60 A2 22,2 55,9 37-66 149,3 60 - 100 B1 22,2 35,7 22 54,0 74 B2 22,2 47,3 7-77 59,4 62
  20. 20. Conclusions IPCC … Climate change is unequivocal; it is another driver of change such as population growth and economic development. IPCC also identifies knowledge gaps: paucity of information particularly hydrological information understanding of links between global climate models and local hydrological models Knowledge on groundwater resources
  21. 21. Camarón que se duerme, se lo lleva la changada
  22. 22. A New Planning Uncertainty
  23. 23. Joint Egyptian-Dutch Water Conference Towards the new Long Term Strategy for Water in the Mediterranean Cairo, Egypt 2 and 3 November 2009 Organised by Egypt, Netherlands, CPWC, APP and GWP-Med Cairo Message to COP-15 Coping with climate change is managing water for life A strong and fair agreement in Copenhagen at the fifteenth Conference of Parties (COP-15) of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) on measures to mitigate and adapt to climate change is crucial for water resources, water services and for life. 25
  24. 24. Issues Climate and Water – Development, Water and Climate – Beyond the water box – Governance – Information – Adaptive Management – Finance See Stockholm message
  25. 25. Climate change in the context of water and development …
  26. 26. Population projection Nile countries Projected population (million) 180 Egypt 160 Ethiopia 140 Eritrea 120 Sudan 100 Uganda 80 Congo 60 Kenya 40 Tanzania 20 Burundi 0 Rwanda 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
  27. 27. World Cities exceeding 5 million residents 1950 2015 Analysis by Munich Re Data: U.N. Population Division
  28. 28. Meeting growing global water demands 6000 Agriculture 5000 Indus try ater Use in km^3 per year Hous eholds Res ervoires 4000 Total 3000 2000 W 1000 0 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020
  29. 29. Worldwide Water Use by Region 3500 Europe 3000 North America Africa Asia 2500 South America Australia& Pacific 2000 1500 1000 500 0 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 31
  30. 30. Historic losses from weather disasters 1950-2005 Direct economic losses [mld. US$] 200 economic losses (in values of 2006) 180 insured losses (in values of 2006) 160 trend economic losses 140 trend insured losses 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 1950 1953 1956 1959 1962 1965 1968 1971 1974 1977 1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 © 2007 NatCatSERVICE, Geo Risks Research, Munich Re 32
  31. 31. …and realities Developing countries and countries in transition: – MDGs and poverty alleviation are the priority – Barely able to cope with present climate variability; – Improving operations (leakages, payments, water efficiency) a step towards coping with CC – Need for more storage (No Regret measures) Climate specific measures in hot spots – Climate information and hydrological information scarce – Limited professional/sectoral capacity – Need for technology transfer – Need for better planning (bankable) – Needs additional funding and external support
  32. 32. local, country and regional adaptation categories 1. Best practises and no regret in – Irrigation – Drinking water – Water for energy 2. Climate specific measures in “ hot spots” including” – Arid areas – Low lying coastal delta’s – Mountainous areas affected by glacier melt – Small islands
  33. 33. Elements for developing an adaptation strategy . Policy, legal and institutional framework h1 Understand the vulnerability Information needs Impact assessment Evaluate Vulnerability assessment Development of measures Financial arrangements Convention of the Protection and Use of Transboundary Watercourses and International Lakes
  34. 34. Diapositiva 35 h1 hvanschaik, 06/04/2009
  35. 35. Netherlands: Climate proofing concept in water…. “The climate is changing and we should make our country climate proof. The national government together with science, policy and other stakeholders” Jan-Peter Balkenende - Dutch Prime Minister, november 2005” Science - Policy interaction
  36. 36. Assignment Advice on protecting the coast and the entire low lying part of the Netherlands against the consequences of climate change on a time scale of 2100 –2200 Wider scope than only safety, multifunctional approach
  37. 37. Committee on Sustainable Coastal Development Advice on protecting the coast and the entire low lying part of the Netherlands against the consequences of climate change on a time scale of 2100 –2200 Wider scope than only safety, multifunctional approach 38
  38. 38. Opening the “water box” Decision-making affecting water (Figure 1.1)
  39. 39. Global Earth Observation System of Systems (GEOSS)
  40. 40. Lack of information and data at a time when we need it more than ever to deal with increasing complexity Distribution of Global Runoff Data Centre streamflow gauges (Figure 13.1)
  41. 41. World Climate Conference 31 August – 4 September 2009, Geneva Decides to establish a Global Framework for Climate Services to strengthen production, availability, delivery and application of science-based climate prediction and services. But no silver bullet on climate information…..
  42. 42. National adaptation strategies Colombia: – Andean highlands ecosystems – Sea level rise 2-5 mm/year – Vector born diseases e.g. Dengue Peru: – Local projects, no indication of specific issues Brazil – Agriculture – Coastal
  43. 43. Sea level rise: “plausible high end scenarios” 2100: + 0.55 - 1.20 m (0.65 – 1.35 incl. soil subs.) Key importance of adaptive management: adapataion measures must be flexible, no-regret (robust) and hand in hand with monitoring & ability to incorporate new scientific insifghts
  44. 44. Concept of water security Threshold Water security Threshold Probability of low extremes Probability of high extremes
  45. 45. An increase in mean and variance of run off imply a nonlinear increase in the probability of extremes, which requires to adjust design criteria Threshold ± 1 SD Threshold Probability of Probability of low extremes high extremes Mean T0 New Mean LJM,2002
  46. 46. Precise and exact information on impacts is not and will never be made available. N o silver bullet. Adaptation is about dealing with uncertainties and risks Principles for adaptation measures for credible future: – Robustness – Flexibility – Resilience
  47. 47. Adaptation measures: Protection by a “ring of floodgates” New perspectives for nature restoration, outside the dikes Development of urban waterfronts 50
  48. 48. Costs < 2050: 1,2 tot 1,6 billion euro /yr 2050 – 2100: 0,9 tot 1,5 billion euro /yr Beach nourishment for coastal land reclamation: 0.1 – 0.3 billion euro/yr (GNP = 550 billion euro/yr) 51
  49. 49. 52 a global network for water professionals
  50. 50. Membrane Bio-Reactors 53
  51. 51. Climate change and water management Climate change is additional to other changes including population growth, economic development, natural variability. Ensure availability and make use of credible climate scenario relevant to the specific hot spot need (coastal protection, agriculture, navigation, hydropower, drinking water supply, ecosystems). Political debate (beyond water) on risk management is essential at local (urban), national, regional (transboundary) and global level. Adaptive Management is top down structural and engineering measures in combination with bottom up building with nature, stakeholder involvement
  52. 52. Prevent mitigate... .. and adapt!
  53. 53. www.waterandclimate.org Thank You

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