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Html 5 impact analysis for mobile

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This raises some relevant questions for mobile companies especially around the intentions of HTML5, the timing when HTML5 may pose a threat to the app market, the growth of mobile internet traffic and …

This raises some relevant questions for mobile companies especially around the intentions of HTML5, the timing when HTML5 may pose a threat to the app market, the growth of mobile internet traffic and the implications of this technology to mobile products.

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  • 1. HTML-5’s impact On the mobile content market By, Avinash Bharadwaj Tanushree Jana27th Oct 2011
  • 2. HTML-5 impact analysisTable of Contents1. Executive summary .............................................................................................................. 32. Introduction ............................................................................................................................ 43. HTML-5 implementation projections .................................................................................. 64. HTML-5 threat to native app market .................................................................................. 95. Growth of mobile web ........................................................................................................ 126. Conclusions ......................................................................................................................... 14Tables and figuresFigure 1: Potential future of web apps because of HTML5 ............................................................. 3Figure 2: Potential future of web apps because of HTML5. ............................................................ 4Figure 3: Evolution of HTML5 feature implementations. ................................................................ 7Figure 4: Potential future of web apps because of HTML5. ............................................................ 9Figure 5: Evolution of threat from HTML-5 to native app user-base ............................................ 10Figure 6: Implementation status of features influencing threat on native apps .......................... 10Figure 7: Global mobile internet users. Mobithinking .................................................................. 12Figure 8: Global internet traffic. CISCO ......................................................................................... 12Figure 9: Traffic per billion users per month, calculated from Figures 8 and 9. ........................... 13Table 1: HTML5 features and their descriptions ............................................................................. 5Table 2: Current implementation status of HTML5 ........................................................................ 6Last Updated: 3/24/2012 12:40 PM 2/14Proprietary & Confidential
  • 3. HTML-5 impact analysis1. Executive summaryToday there is a lot of speculation about HTML5’s timing and impact on the mobilecontent market. HTML5 based web apps do come with some favorable attributes whichmake HTML5 a potential threat to the app market. This raises some relevant questionsfor mobile software companies especially around the timing when HTML5 may pose athreat to the app market, the growth of mobile internet traffic and its significance to STIR.The analysis concludes the following HTML 5 features that relate to ‘ease of coding’ have had maximum implementation on various phones. They would be 100% complete by 2012. All features but Web workers would get implemented by 2015. Web-workers might take the longest to be implemented, potentially by 2019. 63% of the user-base of native apps can be potentially replaced by HTML-5 based web-apps by 2014. The threat saturates at around 63% as native apps will continue to dominate wherever processor intensive functionalities are required. It is however, another question as to how long will the industry take to adopt HTML5 thereby replacing native apps. According to some of the studies published online, it is estimated that o The total global mobile internet activity would increase 26 times o The global mobile internet users are expected to increase by 88% by 2015. o The traffic per user on HTML5 can potentially increase by 8.4 times (60% of 14) Figure 1: Potential future of web apps because of HTML5Last Updated: 3/24/2012 12:40 PM 3/14Proprietary & Confidential
  • 4. HTML-5 impact analysis2. IntroductionToday there is a lot of speculation about HTML5’s timing and impact on the mobilecontent market. HTML5 based web apps do come with some favorable attributes whichmake HTML5 a potential threat to the app market. This raises some relevant questionsfor mobile software companies especially around the intentions of HTML5, the timingwhen HTML5 may pose a threat to the app market, the growth of mobile internet trafficand the implications of this technology to the internal product.HTML5 is the fifth revision of the HTML standard. .HTML is a language for structuringand presenting content for the World Wide Web, a core technology of the Internetoriginally proposed by Opera Software. As of October 2011, HTML5’s specification is stillunder development, which is expected to end by 2014.HTML5’s core aims have been to improve the language with support for the latestmultimedia while keeping it easily readable by humans and consistently understood bycomputers and devices (web browsers, parsers, etc.). HTML5 is intended to subsumenot only HTML4, but XHTML1 and DOM2HTML (particularly JavaScript) as well.It is said that HTML5 is likely to increase mobile web content consumption and pose athreat to the native app market as shown in Figure 1. This is because it offers valuablemobile web features that can help develop cross platform apps in a short period of timewith a good user-interface. A list of these features and their implications is presented inTable 1.In order to quantify this impact, the next section analyses the current and futureimplementation status of HTML5. Figure 2: Potential future of web apps because of HTML5.Last Updated: 3/24/2012 12:40 PM 4/14Proprietary & Confidential
  • 5. HTML-5 impact analysis HTML5 Features Description Extended video support Introducing new video element Extended audio support Introducing new audio element Including new forms of input types, input Extended form concept attributes including section and grouping elements like Miscellaneous new Element Types and <article>, <header>, <footer> or <figure> Attributes and semantic elements like <mark> Enable native drag & drop and undo history Extended User Interaction Concepts functionality Enable semantic annotation of content with Microdata labels Enable 2D animations based on the new 2D Animation Rendering <canvas> element Indicate the level of support regarding CSS3 in General features and concepts introduced with CSS3 Indicate the level of support regarding the CSS3 Selectors CSS3 Selector concept Provide access to the devices current Geolocation API location based on GPS data, GSM/CDMA cell IDs, network signals and alike Facilitate file access to the devices FileReader API underlying file system Enable users to continue interacting with Offline Web Application Support web applications and documents even when their network connection is unavailable An extension of the Offline Web Application Webstorage support, allows to actively store key/value pairs on the client side An extension of the Webstorage concept, IndexedDB provides a complete client-side database Enables access to connected devices (e.g. Local Devices Support USB devices) based on the <device> element Enables creating 3D animations with the 3D Animation Rendering (WebGL) HTML5 <canvas> element (eg. 3 Dimensional effects like a globe spinning) Provide an API for running background Web Workers scripts in the context of the browser, but independent of user interface scripts Table 1: HTML5 features and their descriptionsLast Updated: 3/24/2012 12:40 PM 5/14Proprietary & Confidential
  • 6. HTML-5 impact analysis3. HTML-5 implementation projectionsThe World Wide Web Consortium has announced that it will be able to release a fullspecification of HTML-5 by 2014. However, in order for HTML5 to be useful, thesefeatures will need to be implemented into browsers of individual handsets.Current implementation status:The Netbiscuits Mobile Web Metrics report Feb 2011, as shown in Table2, has studiedthe implementation status of 17 HTML-5 features over a sample of 2000 devices, across15 handset models. It shows whether a certain feature is fully implemented, partiallyimplemented or not yet implemented. The list below constitutes 50% of the market; therest is a very long tail.It is interesting to observe from Table2, that Apple’s Safari is the implementation leader,followed by Android. However, each phone’s implementation makes a large or smallimpact based on its user-base. Table 2: Current implementation status of HTML5Last Updated: 3/24/2012 12:40 PM 6/14Proprietary & Confidential
  • 7. HTML-5 impact analysisFuture implementation status:The evolution of the implementation of various categories of HTML-5 features, has beenprojected in Figure 3, based on Table 2 and the user-base of each of the phones listed,Figure 3, below suggests that HTML 5 features that relate to ‘ease of coding’ have hadmaximum implementation on various phones. They would be 100% complete by 2012.On the other hand, webworkers may take the longest i.e. by 2019, to get implemented.Please see Table 1 in section 3 to understand what each of these features mean. Figure 3: Evolution of HTML5 feature implementations.MethodologyThe projection has been arrived at by o Using the Netbiscuits report that has analyzed the implementation status of 17 mutually exclusive features of HTML5 over a sample of 2000 devices o Calculating a completion score (%) for each feature based on the completion status in each device and the user-base of that device. For example: If there are 3 handsets with completion scores of 0%, 50% and 100%, with market shares ofLast Updated: 3/24/2012 12:40 PM 7/14Proprietary & Confidential
  • 8. HTML-5 impact analysis 20%,30% and 50%, then the completion score is be [(0% * 20%)+(50% * 30%)+(100% * 50%)]. o The slope for each feature has been calculated using a completion rate. The start of the slope is when the respective feature specification was released and the end of the slope is the current completion score as per the netBiscuits report. o Assumption: The implementation will continue at the same rate as earlier.ImplicationsThe features are at different stages of implementation and thus the threat is likely to varywith time. As can be seen in figure 3, most features are likely to get implemented by2015. Web-workers are likely to get implemented by 2019. Thus, there is an increasingthreat to the native app market. The next section attempts to explore the threat to thenative app market.Last Updated: 3/24/2012 12:40 PM 8/14Proprietary & Confidential
  • 9. HTML-5 impact analysis4. HTML-5 threat to native app marketHTML5 can offer a significant threat to the native app market. Starting 2014, it would bepossible to replace 63% of the apps with HTML5 based web apps. It is however, anotherquestion as to how long will the industry take to adopt HTML5 to replace native apps.Figure 3, shows the evolution of this potential threat with time. It is important tounderstand that even though 100% of the HTML5 features get implemented by 2015, thethreat to native apps remains at 63%. This is because the 37% of the mobile internetconsumption would be processor intensive which cannot be fulfilled by HTML5.It is also important to note that although all features of HTML5 may get completed by2019, the threat % saturates starting 2014. This is because only some features likeaudio/video support, local device support and CSS3 selectors help decide whether anapp can be replaced by its HTML-5 counterpart. Figure 4: Potential future of web apps because of HTML5.MethodologyThe threat has been estimated in the following manner: 1. Categorize the set of native apps available in the Android market based on their functionality. 2. Estimated the user-base of each type of native app based on the average rating. Source: Statistics from the android market. 3. Defined that a native app is potentially under threat from HTML5 if: a. It is possible to develop the required functionality with the available features of HTML-5 b. It is easier to develop the app using HTML-5 c. The required functionality is not processor intensive. Therefore the performance of an HTML-5 based web app would not be compromised much. 4. Measured threat to native apps as the percentage of user-base that it can potentially capture based on the above conditions.Note: Not all features of HTML5 contribute towards threat to current native apps.Last Updated: 3/24/2012 12:40 PM 9/14Proprietary & Confidential
  • 10. HTML-5 impact analysis Figure 5: Evolution of threat from HTML-5 to native app user-base Figure 6: Implementation status of features influencing threat on native appsLast Updated: 3/24/2012 12:40 PM 10/14Proprietary & Confidential
  • 11. HTML-5 impact analysisImplications:The above analysis implies that it would make sense for the industry to move towardsHTML5 development starting 2014. It also means that beyond a point, native apps arelikely to be necessary. The threat saturates around 63%.This also implies that there is a potential for the growth of mobile web due to HTML5.This is explored in the next section.Last Updated: 3/24/2012 12:40 PM 11/14Proprietary & Confidential
  • 12. HTML-5 impact analysis5. Growth of mobile webHTML5 poses not just a threat to the app market but also has the potential to increasemobile web content consumption. As seen in Figure 1, not only does the overlapincrease but the size of the Venn diagram also increases.According to some of the studies published online, it is estimated that The total global mobile internet activity would increase 26 times (Figure 8). The global mobile internet activity using HTML5 can increase by 15.6 times (60% of 26) The global mobile internet users are expected to increase by 88% by 2015. (Figure 9) The traffic per user is expected to increase by 14 times. (Figure 10) The traffic per user on HTML5 can potentially increase by 8.4 times (60% of 14). Figure 7: Growth of mobile web Global traffic - exabytes/month Global mobile internet users8 1500 (mn)6 100042 5000 0 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Figure 8: Global internet traffic. CISCO Figure 7: Global mobile internet users. MobithinkingLast Updated: 3/24/2012 12:40 PM 12/14Proprietary & Confidential
  • 13. HTML-5 impact analysis Traffic per billion users per month (exabytes) 7.00 6.00 5.00 4.00 3.00 2.00 1.00 0.00 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Figure 9: Traffic per billion users per month, calculated from Figures 8 and 9.Implications:The mobile internet traffic growth is actually happening due to increase in internetconsumption per person, not because of growth in user-base. This is because the user-base seems to grow only by 88% by 2015 while the traffic per user grows by 8 times!HTML5 is likely to be one of the significant reasons behind this growth.Last Updated: 3/24/2012 12:40 PM 13/14Proprietary & Confidential
  • 14. HTML-5 impact analysis6. ConclusionsConclusions HTML 5 features that relate to ‘ease of coding’ have had maximum implementation on various phones. They would be 100% complete by 2012. All features but Web workers would get implemented by 2015. Web-workers might take the longest to be implemented, potentially by 2019. 63% of the user-base of native apps can be potentially replaced by HTML-5 based web-apps by 2014. The threat saturates at around 63% as native apps will continue to dominate wherever processor intensive functionalities are required. It is however, another question as to how long will the industry take to adopt HTML5 thereby replacing native apps. According to some of the studies published online, it is estimated that o The total global mobile internet activity would increase 26 times o The global mobile internet users are expected to increase by 88% by 2015. o The traffic per user on HTML5 can potentially increase by 8.4 times (60% of 14)Key assumptions:- The completion score of each HTML-5 feature increases linearly. The user-base of a certain category of apps is directly proportional to its average ratingImplications It would make sense for the industry and mobile software companies to move towards HTML5 development starting 2014. It also means that beyond a point, native apps are likely to be necessary. The threat saturates around 63%. It may appear in the beginning that the mobile traffic is going to increase due to the growth in mobile user-base. However the user-base seems to grow only by 88% by 2015. This means that the traffic growth is actually happening due to increase in internet consumption per person. By 2015 this grows by 8 times! HTML5 is likely to be one of the significant reasons behind this growth.Last Updated: 3/24/2012 12:40 PM 14/14Proprietary & Confidential

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