IPCC:s tredje delrapport, av Thomas Sterner
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IPCC:s tredje delrapport, av Thomas Sterner

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Thomas Sterner deltog i arbetet med IPCC:s tredje delrapport i den femte rapporten om klimatförändringarna. Fores anordnade tillsammans med Mistra Swecia och Mistra Indigo ett seminarium där bland......

Thomas Sterner deltog i arbetet med IPCC:s tredje delrapport i den femte rapporten om klimatförändringarna. Fores anordnade tillsammans med Mistra Swecia och Mistra Indigo ett seminarium där bland annat Thomas Sterner deltog och presenterade de viktigaste slutsatserna från den tredje delrapporten.

Video från seminariet finns här: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mGYGU07Bdec&list=UUswRg-zqyKXceYXwtZXNeiA

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  • 1. Working Group III contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report
  • 2. Working Group III contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report
  • 3. Working Group III contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report IPCC …Den mest ambitiösa översikten 1 Summary for Policymakers 1 Technical Summary 16 Chapters 235 Authors 900 Reviewers More than 2000 pages Close to 10,000 references More than 38,000 comments
  • 4. Working Group III contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report IPCC …Den mest ambitiösa översikten 1 Summary for Policymakers 1 Technical Summary 16 Chapters 235 Authors 900 Reviewers More than 2000 pages Close to 10,000 references More than 38,000 comments What is NEW? Recommend?
  • 5. Working Group III contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report GHG emissions accelerate despite reduction efforts. Most emission growth is CO2 from fossil fuel combustion.
  • 6. Working Group III contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report GHG emissions accelerate despite reduction efforts. Most emission growth is CO2 from fossil fuel combustion. INCREASING EMISSIONS ENERGY 75% OF INCREASE WGI conclusions
  • 7. Working Group III contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report En Maya Ruin i Slottskogen
  • 8. Working Group III contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report Nej Hopp om mer snö...
  • 9. Working Group III contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report Total Antropogenic CO2 Emissions from Fossil fuel combustion, flaring, Cement, Forestry and other land use (FOLU)
  • 10. Working Group III contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report
  • 11. Working Group III contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report TOTAL GHG GtCO2eq, Total, High Y, Upper M, Lower M Low
  • 12. Working Group III contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report Per Capita emissions High, Upp M. Low M and Low
  • 13. Working Group III contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report Emissions per $ GDP Low, LowM, UppM, High Income
  • 14. Working Group III contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report A growing share of CO2 emissions from fossil fuel combustion and industrial processes in low and middle income countries has been released in the production of goods and services exported, notably from upper‐middle income countries to high income countries.
  • 15. Working Group III contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report Without more mitigation, global mean surface temperature might increase by 3.7° to 4.8°C over the 21st century. Vad behöver göras ?
  • 16. Working Group III contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report Without more mitigation, global mean surface temperature might increase by 3.7° to 4.8°C over the 21st century.
  • 17. Working Group III contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report Mitigation requires major technological and institutional changes including the upscaling of low- and zero carbon energy. Här behövs (mycket) mer förnybar energi
  • 18. Working Group III contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report Substantial reductions in emissions would require large changes in investment patterns.
  • 19. Working Group III contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report Kostnaden för att handla • Att nå 450ppm CO2eq kostar 1.7% (1%-4%) i förlorade Cons 2030, 4.8% (3%-11%) 2100 • Motsvarar sänking i tillväxt med 0.06% (jmft 1.6% - 3%) • Med 2% tillväxt blir vi 5,5 ggr rikare 2100. • Klimatomställningen sänker detta till 5,2 • Vänta till Juli 2102
  • 20. Working Group III contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report Kostnaden för att handla • Att nå 450ppm CO2eq kostar 1.7% (1%-4%) i förlorade Cons 2030, 4.8% (3%-11%) 2100 • Motsvarar sänking i tillväxt med 0.06% (jmft 1.6% - 3%) • Med 2% tillväxt blir vi 5,5 ggr rikare 2100. • Klimatomställningen sänker detta till 5,2 • Vänta till Juli 2102 • Fördelen av minskade klimatskador och förbättrad luft ingår ej i beräkningen.
  • 21. Working Group III contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report Nyttan med att undvika klimatskador ej beräknad • Stor osäkerheter om effekter • Fördelningseffekter • Värdet på mark i Bangladesh vs NY • Värdet av liv • Värdet av risker • Värden långt in i framtiden
  • 22. Working Group III contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report VAD BÖR GÖRAS 1. Behövs AVTAL 2. Behövs Pris på C 3. Behövs Bortagna subventioner 4. Behövs Goda Vilkor Förnybart 5. CCS mm
  • 23. Working Group III contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report Climate treaty needed...
  • 24. Working Group III contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report Är Klimatsystemet en Allmänning?
  • 25. Working Group III contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report Global Commons?
  • 26. Working Group III contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report Känsliga ord • 1. Farliga ord: ”Binding” • 2. Farliga ord: Almänning • 3. Farliga ord: Tillväxt • 4. Medelinkomstländer • 5. Fossil förbränning, 6. Avskaffa Subventioner...
  • 27. Working Group III contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report Styrmedel
  • 28. Working Group III contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report Since AR4, there has been an increased focus on policies designed to integrate multiple objectives, increase co- benefits and reduce adverse side-effects. • Sector-specific policies have been more widely used than economy-wide policies. • Regulatory approaches and information measures are widely used, and are often environmentally effective. • Since AR4, cap and trade systems for GHGs have been established in a number of countries and regions. • In some countries, tax-based policies specifically aimed at reducing GHG emissions–alongside technology and other policies–have helped to weaken the link between GHG emissions and GDP • The reduction of subsidies for GHG-related activities in various sectors can achieve emission reductions, depending on the social and economic context.
  • 29. Working Group III contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report TACK • Thomas Sterner • Coordinating Lead Author, Ch 15 WGIII IPCC AR5 • Professor Miljöekomomi Gölteborg • Visiting Chief Economist http://www.edf.org/people/thomas-sterner • Environmental Defense Fund • www.policyinstruments.se
  • 30. Working Group III contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report ”Comments” from the delgates: Take out subsidies?
  • 31. Working Group III contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report ORD, ORD, ORD • Cap and trade systems for GHGs are being established in a growing number of countries and regions. Their short- run environmental effect has been limited as a result of loose caps or caps that have not proved to be binding (limited evidence, medium agreement). This was related to factors such as the financial and economic crisis, changes in fossil fuel markets, interactions with other policies and regulatory uncertainty. In principle A well-designed cap and trade system can be cost-effective. (national circumstances) Though earlier programmes relied almost exclusively on grandfathering (free allocation of permits), auctioning permits is increasingly applied. If allowances are auctioned, revenues can be used to address other investments with a high social return, and/or reduce the tax and debt burden. [14.4.2, 15.5.3]
  • 32. Working Group III contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report • (In some countries)Tax-based policies, some specifically aimed at reducing energy consumption or emissions–alongside technology and other policies–have helped to weaken the link between GHG emissions and GDP in some countries (high confidence). In a large group of countries, fuel taxes (although not necessarily designed for the purpose of mitigation) have effects that are akin to sectoral carbon taxesTable 15.2. The demand reduction in transport fuel associated with a 1% price increase is 0.6% to 0.8% in the long run, although the short-run response is much smaller [15.5.2]. In some countries revenues are used to reduce other taxes to render policies more politically feasible. This illustrates the general principle that mitigation policies that raise government revenue generally have lower social costs than approaches which do not. While it has previously been assumed that fuel taxes in the transport sector are regressive, there have been a number studies since AR4 that have shown them to be progressive, particularly in low-income countries (medium evidence, medium agreement).
  • 33. Working Group III contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report • The reduction of subsidies to fossil fuels (for GHG related activities) can achieve emission reductions at negative social cost depending on the social and economic context (high confidence). Since AR4 a small but growing literature has quantified emission reductions from subsidy reform and suggests that complete removal of subsidies to high emission technologies in all countries could cut global emissions from (depending on circumstnces and definities) a few percent to as much as 18% (low evidence, medium agreement) [14.3.2, 15.5.2]. Although political economy barriers are substantial, some countries have reformed their tax and budget systems to reduce fuel subsidies. To help reduce possible adverse effects on lower income groups who often spend a large fraction of their income on energy services, many governments have utilized
  • 34. Working Group III contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report Bolivia • Within an appropriate enabling environment, the private sector can play an important role in mitigation (medium evidence, high agreement). The share of total mitigation finance from the private sector, acknowledging data limitations, is estimated to be on average between two-thirds and three-fourths on the global level (2010-2012) (limited evidence, medium agreement). In many countries, public finance interventions by governments and national and international development banks direct
  • 35. Working Group III contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report Bolivia • In many countries the private sector plays central roles in the processes that lead to emissions ….Within an appropriate enabling environment, the private sector can play an important role in mitigation (medium evidence, high agreement). The share of total mitigation finance from the private sector, acknowledging data limitations, is estimated to be on average between two-thirds and three- fourths on the global level (2010-2012) (limited evidence, medium agreement). In many countries, public finance interventions by governments and national and international development banks direct
  • 36. Working Group III contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report SPM.5.2 International cooperation • International cooperation on climate change has diversified over the past decade. The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) remains a primary THE MAIN international forum for climate negotiations, and is seen by many as the most legitimate international climate policy venue due in part to its virtually universal membership [13.3.1, 13.5]. However, other institutions organized at many different scales have risen in importance due to the inclusion of climate change issues in other policy arenas and growing awareness of the co-benefits that can arise from linking climate mitigation and other issues [13.3, 13.4, 13.5].
  • 37. Working Group III contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report Getting Late
  • 38. Working Group III contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report The 25 Japanese were always awake
  • 39. Working Group III contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report
  • 40. Working Group III contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report Is it POSSIBLE ?
  • 41. Working Group III contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report Sverige • Berätta vad vi gjort • Försvara koldioxidsskatten i Sverige • Sprida koldioxidsskatt till EU (uppvärmning mm) • Försvara och utveckla ETS (Sjunkande Cap,golv, tak, långsiktighet, banking....auktionering • Minska avdrags möjligheter • Mer åtgärder industri sektorn • Viktigast; Försvara –gå med i – Energiewende • Capacity building i fattiga länder
  • 42. Working Group III contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report FÖRNYBARA ENERGIKÄLLOR 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 US$/Mwh BNEF Levelized cost of energy per year - Base Cases by Technology Wind - Onshore Wind - Offshore Solar PV - Crystalline Silicon Solar PV - Think film Narutal Gas CCGT Coal Fired Plant
  • 43. Working Group III contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report FÖRNYBARA ENERGIKÄLLOR 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 US$/Mwh BNEF Levelized cost of energy per year - Base Cases by Technology
  • 44. Working Group III contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report
  • 45. Working Group III contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report GHG emissions rise with growth in GDP and population; long-standing trend of decarbonisation of energy reversed.
  • 46. Working Group III contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report Delaying mitigation is estimated to increase the difficulty and narrow the options for limiting warming to 2°C.
  • 47. Working Group III contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report Likelihoods of staying under X degrees Celsius
  • 48. Working Group III contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report Mitigation costs and their increase with other restrictions
  • 49. Working Group III contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report Mitigation can result in large co-benefits for human health and other societal goals.
  • 50. Working Group III contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report Mitigation requires changes throughout the economy. Efforts in one sector determine mitigation efforts in others.
  • 51. Working Group III contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report Spread in emissions/$ GDP within Country groupings
  • 52. Working Group III contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report Effective mitigation will not be achieved if individual agents advance their own interests independently. • Existing and proposed international climate change cooperation arrangements vary in their focus and degree of centralization and coordination. • Issues of equity, justice, and fairness arise with respect to mitigation and adaptation. • Climate policy may be informed by a consideration of a diverse array of risks and uncertainties, some of which are difficult to measure, notably events that are of low probability but which would have a significant impact if they occur.
  • 53. Working Group III contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report Electricity Dec 28-Jan 26 2014
  • 54. Working Group III contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report Electricity per month 2010-2013
  • 55. Working Group III contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report Forecasts for a week
  • 56. Working Group III contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report Nuclear is also intermittent!
  • 57. Working Group III contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report Nuclear intermittency 2011-12
  • 58. Working Group III contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report Regional patterns of GHG emissions are shifting along with changes in the world economy.
  • 59. Working Group III contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report Variation within the country groups