© OECD/IEA 2010
Cancún and beyond, where we are
now and what to expect in Mexico
Implications for Carbon Markets
Christina...
© OECD/IEA - 2010
Building a Climate Agreement
© OECD/IEA - 2010
 CREDITING/OFFSET mechanisms
 CDM – baselines, programmatic,
LDCs, nuclear, CCS
 REDD
 Sectoral cred...
© OECD/IEA - 2010
Crediting/Offset Mechanisms
Future of CDM
 Continuation without Kyoto Protocol ?
 Form (CCS, nuclear, ...
© OECD/IEA - 2010
Overview of emission reductionsOverview of emission reductions
achieved by Clean Developmentachieved by ...
© OECD/IEA - 2010
1. From projects to sector
2. Beyond pure offsetting
Contribution to global
emission reductions
Credits/...
© OECD/IEA - 2010
Bottom-up evolution of markets ?
Todd Stern, US Climate Envoy:
“we don’t agree that an internationally l...
© OECD/IEA - 2010
Current and Proposed Emissions Trading Systems
Operating Likely (?) Considering
© OECD/IEA - 2010
Issues for a bottom-up approach
 Agreed accounting of pledges (incl. overlap)
 Measurement, Reporting ...
© OECD/IEA - 2010
Carbon Prices ?
 WEO 2009 : Scenario OECD linked trading 2013
USD 50/t in 2020 and USD 110/t in 2030.
...
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Christina Hood's power-point presentation

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Christina Hood's presentation at the Carbon Markets Conference

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  • Nearly 200 countries and about 2000 negotiators trying to build a framework.
  • Electricity supply projects account for an important share of the total expected supply of CERs by 2012.
    Energy efficiency projects remain underrepresented.
  • Project reviewed detailed designs of schemes currently in operation, or that have reached an advanced stage of design.
    Operating (with approximate emissions coverage):
    EU ETS ( 2,000 MT)
    Switzerland (3 MT)
    New Zealand (approx 35MT)
    Alberta (116 MT)
    RGGI (Connecticut, Delaware, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New York, Rhode Island, Vermont) (162 MT)
    GGAS NSW (7 MT)
    Likely (with approximate emissions coverage):
    NOTE THAT WE DELIBERATELY DON’T MAKE ASSESSMENT OF LIKELIHOOD IN PAPER – WE JUST LOOK AT DESIGN DETAILS. THIS SLIDE IS JUST TO GIVE YOU A “LAY OF THE LAND” TODAY.
    WCI – California, New Mexico, British Columbia, Ontario, Quebec – over 1/3 of Canada’s emissions (500-1000 MT)
    Korea (400MT)
    Japan (1,000 MT)
    Australia (500 MT)
    China ( few hundred MT as trial ?)
    Considering (with approximate emissions coverage):
    USA (5,500 MT) and Canada (600MT)
    Mexico
    Chile
    Brazil
    Ukraine, Russia, Kazhakistan
    Turkey
  • Christina Hood's power-point presentation

    1. 1. © OECD/IEA 2010 Cancún and beyond, where we are now and what to expect in Mexico Implications for Carbon Markets Christina Hood, Climate Change Unit, International Energy Agency FORES, Stockholm 20 October 2010
    2. 2. © OECD/IEA - 2010 Building a Climate Agreement
    3. 3. © OECD/IEA - 2010  CREDITING/OFFSET mechanisms  CDM – baselines, programmatic, LDCs, nuclear, CCS  REDD  Sectoral crediting  TRADING mechanisms  Domestic and International ETS  Little appetite for top-down framework  Possibility of top-down targets, criteria, delivered by bottom-up mechanisms Cancún – Carbon Markets
    4. 4. © OECD/IEA - 2010 Crediting/Offset Mechanisms Future of CDM  Continuation without Kyoto Protocol ?  Form (CCS, nuclear, standardised baselines)  Buyers ? (EU ETS, Japan, USA) ? New Market Mechanisms  Need acknowledged  Goal: scaling-up flow of credits, moving beyond pure offsetting  Progress on REDD, little on sectoral …but needs trading schemes to create demand
    5. 5. © OECD/IEA - 2010 Overview of emission reductionsOverview of emission reductions achieved by Clean Developmentachieved by Clean Development Mechanism projectsMechanism projects Source: UNEP Risø, CDM pipeline, consulted in January 2010 CDM pipeline information: Less than 1.5 GtCO2 listed in electricity until 2012 – Likely delivery of reductions: 400 Mt - 600 MtCO2 Projected electricity emissions over that decade in non-Annex I: 60 GtCO2 Growth trend in CO2 from electricity in non-Annex I since 2000: +8% per year CDM structurally unlikely to deliver needed mitigation Total emission reductions expected over 2000- 12, est. January 2010: 1.1 GtCO2
    6. 6. © OECD/IEA - 2010 1. From projects to sector 2. Beyond pure offsetting Contribution to global emission reductions Credits/allowances for sale Business as usual Emission baseline Actual performance tCO2ortCO2/unitofoutput Time CDM: cost-effectiveness, not global emission reduction beyond Kyoto countries’ goals: pure offsetting Scaled-up market mechanisms also aim for enhanced global mitigation Require environmentally-ambitious baselines
    7. 7. © OECD/IEA - 2010 Bottom-up evolution of markets ? Todd Stern, US Climate Envoy: “we don’t agree that an internationally legally binding agreement is a precondition for markets" “In light of the trials and tribulations of negotiating a strong, effective legal treaty, it is worth recognizing that if an international accord included countries making political commitments to each other to implement serious, mandatory national laws and regulations; to be internationally transparent in what they do; and to provide appropriate mitigation, technology, adaptation and forestry assistance to poor countries, you’d be much of the way home” Point Carbon News 8 October 2010
    8. 8. © OECD/IEA - 2010 Current and Proposed Emissions Trading Systems Operating Likely (?) Considering
    9. 9. © OECD/IEA - 2010 Issues for a bottom-up approach  Agreed accounting of pledges (incl. overlap)  Measurement, Reporting and Verification  Offset criteria  Bi/Multilateral agreement on tradability of units … potentially allows for mechanisms to be developed ahead of political agreement on targets
    10. 10. © OECD/IEA - 2010 Carbon Prices ?  WEO 2009 : Scenario OECD linked trading 2013 USD 50/t in 2020 and USD 110/t in 2030.  OECD analysis Copenhagen pledges “high and linked” scenario USD 25/t in 2020 “low and fragmented” USD 13-60/t in 2020 …but very sensitive to offset limit

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