Increasing relevance of meteorological informations for various stake holders including growers

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Presentation about Meteorological and Hydrological Service of Croatia and its activities, products, etc. during my visit of CCS HAU, Hisar, India (Department of Agrometeorology), February 2013

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Increasing relevance of meteorological informations for various stake holders including growers

  1. 1. Increasing relevance of meteorological informations for various stake holders including growers Tanja Likso Head of Department for Climate Monitoring Meteorological and Hydrological Service Zagreb, Croatia
  2. 2. Outlines        Hystorical review Meteorological and hydrological observations Climate monitoring Weather prediction Agrometeoroloy Climate change and Croatia Strategic goals
  3. 3. Figure 1. Geographical location of Croatia in Europe.
  4. 4. Historical review  Beginning of meteorological observations in 1851 at Dubrovnik  Continuous meteorological observations at Zagreb-Grič since 1862  The first hydrological station was established in 1817 at Stara Gradiška
  5. 5. Hystorical review   Meteorological Service was established in 1947 In 1992 Croatia became a member of WMO
  6. 6. Meteorological and hydrological observations Over 500 clasic weather and hydrological stations Figure 2. Development of meteorological station network in Croatia.
  7. 7. Meteorological and hydrological observations 40 main meteorological stations 114 ordinary meteorological stations Figure 3. Current meteorological observation network.
  8. 8. Meteorological and hydrological observations Several hundred stations Available data base Figure 4. Current hydrological observation network.
  9. 9. Meteorological and hydrological observations 67 automatic stations 2 upper air radiosounding systems Figure 5. Current automatic station network.
  10. 10. Meteorological and hydrological observations REMOTE SENSING MEASUREMENTS 1 mobile sodar 5 radars wind speed and direction up to 1000 m
  11. 11. Meteorological and hydrological observations  USER ORIENTED OBSERVATIONS
  12. 12. Climate monitoring  Air temperature trend in Croatia is in accordance with the global warming trend which is mainly a consequence of greehouse gasses concentration rise due to fossil fuel burning in energy production, industry, transport, etc.
  13. 13. Climate monitoring Figure 6. Global surface air temperature anomalies.
  14. 14. Climate monitoring Figure 7. Annual air temperature anomalies for Zagreb-Grič main meteorological station.
  15. 15. Figure 8. Annual precipitation anomalies for Zagreb-Grič main meteorological station.
  16. 16. Climate monitoring Figure 9. Air temperature anomalies for Croatia in 2012.
  17. 17. Climate monitoring Figure 10. Precipitation amounts for Croatia in December 2012.
  18. 18. Climate monitoring Figure 11. Average annual air temperature for Zagreb-Grič during the period 1862-2012.
  19. 19. Climate monitoring   The average annual air temperature for the year 2012 is 13.7°C - the second warmest year since the beginning of observatioins, i.e. 1862 Air temperature trend at Zagreb-Grič is in accordance with the global warming trend with a cetrain inter-annual fluctuations
  20. 20. Weather prediction (NWP)  Nowcasting 0-3 hours  LAM (LACE, ALADIN)  Medium range forecasts  Long-range Ensemble Prediction  Regional climate modeling up to 25 years  Air pollution models up to 72 hours up to 72 hours up to 10 days up to 6 months
  21. 21. Weather prediction (NWP) Nowcasting by means of EUMETSAT satellite images
  22. 22. Weather prediction (NWP) ALADIN/HR – OPERATIVE PROGNOSTIC MODEL Resolution 8 x 8 km Forecasting period 00+72 hours Model run 00 and 12 UTC
  23. 23. Weather prediction (NWP) ALADIN/HR - time vertical cross-sections and meteograms
  24. 24. Weather prediction (NWP) Medium-range forecasts - ECMWF
  25. 25. Weather prediction (NWP) Long-range Ensemble weather prediction
  26. 26. Agrometeorology   Agricultural reports – warnings, desciption of weather conditions and forecasts for different regions in Croatia It is made on weakly basis and updated twice a week
  27. 27. Agrometeorology       Agricultural meteorology data for the past 7 days: Air temperature (°C) – max., min., min at 5 cm Precipitation: RR (mm), vs (cm) Relative humidity (%) Total sunshine duration (h) Soil temperature – at two depths (5 cm and 20 cm) in °C - max and min value
  28. 28. Agrometeorology   Since 1951 – soil temperature has been measured systematically at a number of meteorological stations. At first, soil temperature was only measured down to a depth of 20 cm during the vegetation period.
  29. 29. Agrometeorology Soil temperature measurements: 2, 5, 10, 20, 30 , 50 and 100 cm depth Observing times: 07 am, 2 pm and 9 pm CET
  30. 30. Agrometeorology Figure 12. Extreme temperatures
  31. 31. Agrometeorology Figure 13. Total sunshine duration
  32. 32. Agrometeorology Figure 14. Total precipitation amounts
  33. 33. Climate change and Croatia   The Croatian economy has many sectors that are directly influenced by climate and therefore may be affected by climate change In Croatia temperature are already increasing, in some areas rainfall appears to be decreasing, and there apper to be more extreme weather events – especially droughts and heat waves
  34. 34. Climate change and Croatia   Climate model suggest if emissions of CFC compounds continue to increase, the period between 2040-2070 will be between 3 and 3.5°C warmer throughout Croatia during the summer By the end of the century, increase in temperature would be more severe
  35. 35. Climate change and Croatia   Tourism  Most model predict that climate change will create uncommfortably hot summers along the Adriatic coast which may cause many tourist to avoid these destinations. Instead, tourist will visit locations in Northern Europe which will become more attractive with climate change. However, the spring and autumn seasons are more attractive for tourists at the Croatian coast.
  36. 36. Climate change and Croatia  Coastal zone and sea-level rise  Global sea level is expected to rise between 9 and 88 cm by 2100 – though large-scale melting of ice in the Antarctic or in Greenland could mean that sea level woud rise much higher
  37. 37. Climate change and Croatia   According to the approximation, the total amount of land submerged with sea-level rise of 50 cm would be over 100 million square metres. Hoever, there is a lot of uncertainity about sea-level rise and it will occur slowly, meaning that there will be time to adapt. At the same time, plans for infrastructure and long-term investments should consider possible sealevel rise
  38. 38. Climate change and Croatia Figure 15. Sea surface during stormy wind.
  39. 39. Climate change and Croatia  Health impacts  The future health risks of climate change in Croatia are not fully understood because there has not been sufficient research. However, the effects may include: - higher cardiovascular risk due to heat waves - increases in allergic reaction and increased frequences of heat stroke - increases in vector-borne illneses carried by mosquitoes and other organisms
  40. 40. Climate change and Croatia   In the summer 2003, it is estimated that 185 additional deaths occured due to the heat wave While heat related health problems may occur, deaths due to cold weather may decrease during the winter time.
  41. 41. Climate change and Croatia   Water resources  Climate change is expected to result in changes to evaporation, soil humidity, ground water recharge, and the amount of water flowing through the rivers Agriculture  In the future, crop models predict that maize production will likely be affected by climate change – resulting in losses of between 6-16 million EUR in 2050
  42. 42. Climate change and Croatia   Fishing and mariculture  Marine fish populations in the Adriatic are already showing fluctuations and changes in behaviour/migration patterns due to climate It is expected that climate change will change the growing season and rearing time for farmed fish such as tuna
  43. 43. Climate change and Croatia   In addition to the migration of existing species of commercial fish, there is the potential for increase of invasive species Fishing fleets are interested in having available sea surface temperature – it helps them to find fish shoals
  44. 44. Strategic goals MARINE METEOROLOGICAL CENTRE SPLIT SUB-REGIONAL WIS CENTRE Vision To be the WMO Information System (WIS) Centre on meteorological information relevant for marine safety and the related tasks for the (eastern) Adriatic
  45. 45. Strategic goals RADAR AND LIGHTNING NETWORK  Radar network on the Adriatic sea  Modernization of the old radars  National and international radar network radar composite  Lightning detection system integrated with neighbouring countries
  46. 46. Strategic goals IMPROVEMENT OF THE EXISTING ORGANIZATION STRUCTURE AND PERFORMANCE  Climate Monitoring and Prediction proactive role in global climate change and research adaptation and mitigation  Air Quality Monitoring  Public Relation and Relation with the Users
  47. 47. Strategic goals    Strenghtening of the units responsible for warnings Outsourcing of the hail suppression activities to local authorities New law on the meteorological and hydrological activities (the role and duties of the Meteorological and Hydrological Service)
  48. 48. Strategic goals NEW HEADQUARTER BUILDING
  49. 49. THANK YOU

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