Nidera In Chicago 8 17 2009

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    Nidera In Chicago 8 17 2009 - Presentation Transcript

    1. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. Grain Price Outlook and Market Strategies for Nidera by John Roach August 17, 2009
    2. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. 7601 N. Federal Hwy Suite 265-B Boca Raton, FL 33487 800-622-7628 [email_address] http://www.roachag.com
    3. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. Why were grain prices so bullish in May and June?
    4. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. World Soybean Crop down 27.4 million tons - 34% of entire U.S. Crop
      • Dollar Index
      © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. Weak Dollar from Feb to June 09 then stopped going lower Traders’ 1 st Target
    6. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. March Intentions March Intentions
    7. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
      • Tight U.S. soybean ending stocks this year and tight corn stocks next year were forecast
      • Slow U.S plantings caused acreage and yield worries
      • China building soybean reserves
      • Fear of rampant inflation
      • Massive speculative money came into grain markets as traders chased bull market moves
      In Addition We Had
    8. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
      • South American crops quit shrinking
      • U.S. Dollar quit getting cheaper
      • There is no inflation….yet
      • China quit buying
      • U.S. farmers planted more acres than expected and the weather became nearly perfect for big crops
      Why Have Prices dropped?
    9. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. What do the Fundamentals Look Like Now?
    10. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. World Soybean Crop is forecast 31.5 Million tons bigger than last year
    11. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
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      • U.S. and world inventory very tight now
      • We must raise big U.S. crop this year & South America next year
      • 2010 ending stocks increasing but still tight
      • Prices headed down into harvest depending on frost and Dollar value
      Bean Situation and Price Outlook
    23. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
    24. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
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    35. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
      • World coarse grain ending stocks ample
      • U.S. ending stocks are now ample
      • Livestock producers losing money
      • We still need a big corn crop every year
      • Prices headed toward harvest lows – dependant on frost date and Dollar value
      Corn Situation and Price Outlook
    36. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
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      • World wheat ending stocks as a percentage of usage are 5 th largest on record
      • Look for fewer acres in 2010
      • Prices increasingly dominated by former Soviet Union production
      • CFTC Index fund changes may hurt
      Wheat Situation and Price Outlook
    44. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. How Should I Market My Crops?
    45. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. Roach Ag Sales Plan
      • Make as many of your sales as possible during the months of March, April, May and June. Avoid October and November
      • Sell in increments to take advantage of several market peaks using Roach Ag Sell Signals
      • Buy puts on unsold new crop production at the same time
    46. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
    47. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
    48. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
      • Focus the majority of sales in the 1 st half of the year
      • March through June is usually best
      Rule # 1
      • December 2007 Corn
      © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. Both Lines Over 75 = Roach Ag Sell Signal
    50. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. Roach Ag Sell Signals Your Digital Thermometer For Prices
    51. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. Roach Ag Sell Signals When Both Lines Are Above 75 = Sell Signal
    52. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. Roach Ag 2007 Corn Sell Signals 56 Days of Sell Signals ($3.91) and 272 Days Without ($3.71)
    53. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. Split your bushels into between 4 or 5 increments and sell one increment of each on each Sell Signal Rule # 2
    54. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
      • Sell only when markets are giving us a Roach Ag Sell Signal
      Rule # 3
    55. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. Put Opportunity - Buy Puts on some of the Crop You Do Not Want to Sell on a Cash Contract
    56. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. Put Opportunity - Buy Puts on some of the Crop You Do Not Want to Sell on a Cash Contract
    57. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. Put Opportunity - Buy Puts on some of the Crop You Do Not Want to Sell on a Cash Contract
    58. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. Put Opportunity - Buy Puts on some of the Crop You Do Not Want to Sell on a Cash Contract
    59. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. Put Opportunity - Buy Puts on some of the Crop You Do Not Want to Sell on a Cash Contract
    60. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. Put Opportunity - Buy Puts on some of the Crop You Do Not Want to Sell on a Cash Contract
    61. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. Put Opportunity - Buy Puts on some of the Crop You Do Not Want to Sell on a Cash Contract
    62. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. Put Opportunity - Buy Puts on some of the Crop You Do Not Want to Sell on a Cash Contract
    63. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. Put Opportunity - Buy Puts on some of the Crop You Do Not Want to Sell on a Cash Contract
    64. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. Put Opportunity - Buy Puts on some of the Crop You Do Not Want to Sell on a Cash Contract
    65. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. Put Opportunity - Buy Puts on some of the Crop You Do Not Want to Sell on a Cash Contract
    66. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. Put Opportunity - Buy Puts on some of the Crop You Do Not Want to Sell on a Cash Contract
    67. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. 7601 N. Federal Hwy Suite 265-B Boca Raton, FL 33487 800-622-7628 [email_address] http://www.roachag.com
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