Your SlideShare is downloading. ×
0
Nidera In Chicago 8 17 2009
Nidera In Chicago 8 17 2009
Nidera In Chicago 8 17 2009
Nidera In Chicago 8 17 2009
Nidera In Chicago 8 17 2009
Nidera In Chicago 8 17 2009
Nidera In Chicago 8 17 2009
Nidera In Chicago 8 17 2009
Nidera In Chicago 8 17 2009
Nidera In Chicago 8 17 2009
Nidera In Chicago 8 17 2009
Nidera In Chicago 8 17 2009
Nidera In Chicago 8 17 2009
Nidera In Chicago 8 17 2009
Nidera In Chicago 8 17 2009
Nidera In Chicago 8 17 2009
Nidera In Chicago 8 17 2009
Nidera In Chicago 8 17 2009
Nidera In Chicago 8 17 2009
Nidera In Chicago 8 17 2009
Nidera In Chicago 8 17 2009
Nidera In Chicago 8 17 2009
Nidera In Chicago 8 17 2009
Nidera In Chicago 8 17 2009
Nidera In Chicago 8 17 2009
Nidera In Chicago 8 17 2009
Nidera In Chicago 8 17 2009
Nidera In Chicago 8 17 2009
Nidera In Chicago 8 17 2009
Nidera In Chicago 8 17 2009
Nidera In Chicago 8 17 2009
Nidera In Chicago 8 17 2009
Nidera In Chicago 8 17 2009
Nidera In Chicago 8 17 2009
Nidera In Chicago 8 17 2009
Nidera In Chicago 8 17 2009
Nidera In Chicago 8 17 2009
Nidera In Chicago 8 17 2009
Nidera In Chicago 8 17 2009
Nidera In Chicago 8 17 2009
Nidera In Chicago 8 17 2009
Nidera In Chicago 8 17 2009
Nidera In Chicago 8 17 2009
Nidera In Chicago 8 17 2009
Nidera In Chicago 8 17 2009
Nidera In Chicago 8 17 2009
Nidera In Chicago 8 17 2009
Nidera In Chicago 8 17 2009
Nidera In Chicago 8 17 2009
Nidera In Chicago 8 17 2009
Nidera In Chicago 8 17 2009
Nidera In Chicago 8 17 2009
Nidera In Chicago 8 17 2009
Nidera In Chicago 8 17 2009
Nidera In Chicago 8 17 2009
Nidera In Chicago 8 17 2009
Nidera In Chicago 8 17 2009
Nidera In Chicago 8 17 2009
Nidera In Chicago 8 17 2009
Nidera In Chicago 8 17 2009
Nidera In Chicago 8 17 2009
Nidera In Chicago 8 17 2009
Nidera In Chicago 8 17 2009
Nidera In Chicago 8 17 2009
Nidera In Chicago 8 17 2009
Nidera In Chicago 8 17 2009
Nidera In Chicago 8 17 2009
Upcoming SlideShare
Loading in...5
×

Thanks for flagging this SlideShare!

Oops! An error has occurred.

×
Saving this for later? Get the SlideShare app to save on your phone or tablet. Read anywhere, anytime – even offline.
Text the download link to your phone
Standard text messaging rates apply

Nidera In Chicago 8 17 2009

568

Published on

Published in: Business, Technology
0 Comments
0 Likes
Statistics
Notes
  • Be the first to comment

  • Be the first to like this

No Downloads
Views
Total Views
568
On Slideshare
0
From Embeds
0
Number of Embeds
1
Actions
Shares
0
Downloads
4
Comments
0
Likes
0
Embeds 0
No embeds

Report content
Flagged as inappropriate Flag as inappropriate
Flag as inappropriate

Select your reason for flagging this presentation as inappropriate.

Cancel
No notes for slide

Transcript

  • 1. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. Grain Price Outlook and Market Strategies for Nidera by John Roach August 17, 2009
  • 2. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. 7601 N. Federal Hwy Suite 265-B Boca Raton, FL 33487 800-622-7628 [email_address] http://www.roachag.com
  • 3. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. Why were grain prices so bullish in May and June?
  • 4. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. World Soybean Crop down 27.4 million tons - 34% of entire U.S. Crop
  • 5. <ul><li>Dollar Index </li></ul>© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. Weak Dollar from Feb to June 09 then stopped going lower Traders’ 1 st Target
  • 6. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. March Intentions March Intentions
  • 7. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. <ul><li>Tight U.S. soybean ending stocks this year and tight corn stocks next year were forecast </li></ul><ul><li>Slow U.S plantings caused acreage and yield worries </li></ul><ul><li>China building soybean reserves </li></ul><ul><li>Fear of rampant inflation </li></ul><ul><li>Massive speculative money came into grain markets as traders chased bull market moves </li></ul>In Addition We Had
  • 8. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. <ul><li>South American crops quit shrinking </li></ul><ul><li>U.S. Dollar quit getting cheaper </li></ul><ul><li>There is no inflation….yet </li></ul><ul><li>China quit buying </li></ul><ul><li>U.S. farmers planted more acres than expected and the weather became nearly perfect for big crops </li></ul>Why Have Prices dropped?
  • 9. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. What do the Fundamentals Look Like Now?
  • 10. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. World Soybean Crop is forecast 31.5 Million tons bigger than last year
  • 11. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
  • 12. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
  • 13. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
  • 14. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
  • 15. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
  • 16. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
  • 17. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
  • 18. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
  • 19. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
  • 20. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
  • 21. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
  • 22. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. <ul><li>U.S. and world inventory very tight now </li></ul><ul><li>We must raise big U.S. crop this year &amp; South America next year </li></ul><ul><li>2010 ending stocks increasing but still tight </li></ul><ul><li>Prices headed down into harvest depending on frost and Dollar value </li></ul>Bean Situation and Price Outlook
  • 23. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
  • 24. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
  • 25. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
  • 26. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
  • 27. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
  • 28. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
  • 29. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
  • 30. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
  • 31. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
  • 32. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
  • 33. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
  • 34. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
  • 35. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. <ul><li>World coarse grain ending stocks ample </li></ul><ul><li>U.S. ending stocks are now ample </li></ul><ul><li>Livestock producers losing money </li></ul><ul><li>We still need a big corn crop every year </li></ul><ul><li>Prices headed toward harvest lows – dependant on frost date and Dollar value </li></ul>Corn Situation and Price Outlook
  • 36. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
  • 37. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
  • 38. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
  • 39. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
  • 40. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
  • 41. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
  • 42. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
  • 43. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. <ul><li>World wheat ending stocks as a percentage of usage are 5 th largest on record </li></ul><ul><li>Look for fewer acres in 2010 </li></ul><ul><li>Prices increasingly dominated by former Soviet Union production </li></ul><ul><li>CFTC Index fund changes may hurt </li></ul>Wheat Situation and Price Outlook
  • 44. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. How Should I Market My Crops?
  • 45. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. Roach Ag Sales Plan <ul><li>Make as many of your sales as possible during the months of March, April, May and June. Avoid October and November </li></ul><ul><li>Sell in increments to take advantage of several market peaks using Roach Ag Sell Signals </li></ul><ul><li>Buy puts on unsold new crop production at the same time </li></ul>
  • 46. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
  • 47. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
  • 48. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. <ul><li>Focus the majority of sales in the 1 st half of the year </li></ul><ul><li>March through June is usually best </li></ul>Rule # 1
  • 49. <ul><li>December 2007 Corn </li></ul>© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. Both Lines Over 75 = Roach Ag Sell Signal
  • 50. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. Roach Ag Sell Signals Your Digital Thermometer For Prices
  • 51. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. Roach Ag Sell Signals When Both Lines Are Above 75 = Sell Signal
  • 52. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. Roach Ag 2007 Corn Sell Signals 56 Days of Sell Signals ($3.91) and 272 Days Without ($3.71)
  • 53. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. Split your bushels into between 4 or 5 increments and sell one increment of each on each Sell Signal Rule # 2
  • 54. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. <ul><li>Sell only when markets are giving us a Roach Ag Sell Signal </li></ul>Rule # 3
  • 55. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. Put Opportunity - Buy Puts on some of the Crop You Do Not Want to Sell on a Cash Contract
  • 56. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. Put Opportunity - Buy Puts on some of the Crop You Do Not Want to Sell on a Cash Contract
  • 57. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. Put Opportunity - Buy Puts on some of the Crop You Do Not Want to Sell on a Cash Contract
  • 58. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. Put Opportunity - Buy Puts on some of the Crop You Do Not Want to Sell on a Cash Contract
  • 59. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. Put Opportunity - Buy Puts on some of the Crop You Do Not Want to Sell on a Cash Contract
  • 60. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. Put Opportunity - Buy Puts on some of the Crop You Do Not Want to Sell on a Cash Contract
  • 61. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. Put Opportunity - Buy Puts on some of the Crop You Do Not Want to Sell on a Cash Contract
  • 62. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. Put Opportunity - Buy Puts on some of the Crop You Do Not Want to Sell on a Cash Contract
  • 63. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. Put Opportunity - Buy Puts on some of the Crop You Do Not Want to Sell on a Cash Contract
  • 64. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. Put Opportunity - Buy Puts on some of the Crop You Do Not Want to Sell on a Cash Contract
  • 65. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. Put Opportunity - Buy Puts on some of the Crop You Do Not Want to Sell on a Cash Contract
  • 66. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. Put Opportunity - Buy Puts on some of the Crop You Do Not Want to Sell on a Cash Contract
  • 67. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. 7601 N. Federal Hwy Suite 265-B Boca Raton, FL 33487 800-622-7628 [email_address] http://www.roachag.com

×