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  • 1. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. Grain Price Outlook and Market Strategies for Nidera by John Roach August 17, 2009
  • 2. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. 7601 N. Federal Hwy Suite 265-B Boca Raton, FL 33487 800-622-7628 [email_address] http://www.roachag.com
  • 3. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. Why were grain prices so bullish in May and June?
  • 4. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. World Soybean Crop down 27.4 million tons - 34% of entire U.S. Crop
  • 5.
    • Dollar Index
    © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. Weak Dollar from Feb to June 09 then stopped going lower Traders’ 1 st Target
  • 6. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. March Intentions March Intentions
  • 7. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
    • Tight U.S. soybean ending stocks this year and tight corn stocks next year were forecast
    • Slow U.S plantings caused acreage and yield worries
    • China building soybean reserves
    • Fear of rampant inflation
    • Massive speculative money came into grain markets as traders chased bull market moves
    In Addition We Had
  • 8. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
    • South American crops quit shrinking
    • U.S. Dollar quit getting cheaper
    • There is no inflation….yet
    • China quit buying
    • U.S. farmers planted more acres than expected and the weather became nearly perfect for big crops
    Why Have Prices dropped?
  • 9. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. What do the Fundamentals Look Like Now?
  • 10. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. World Soybean Crop is forecast 31.5 Million tons bigger than last year
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    • U.S. and world inventory very tight now
    • We must raise big U.S. crop this year & South America next year
    • 2010 ending stocks increasing but still tight
    • Prices headed down into harvest depending on frost and Dollar value
    Bean Situation and Price Outlook
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    • World coarse grain ending stocks ample
    • U.S. ending stocks are now ample
    • Livestock producers losing money
    • We still need a big corn crop every year
    • Prices headed toward harvest lows – dependant on frost date and Dollar value
    Corn Situation and Price Outlook
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    • World wheat ending stocks as a percentage of usage are 5 th largest on record
    • Look for fewer acres in 2010
    • Prices increasingly dominated by former Soviet Union production
    • CFTC Index fund changes may hurt
    Wheat Situation and Price Outlook
  • 44. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. How Should I Market My Crops?
  • 45. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. Roach Ag Sales Plan
    • Make as many of your sales as possible during the months of March, April, May and June. Avoid October and November
    • Sell in increments to take advantage of several market peaks using Roach Ag Sell Signals
    • Buy puts on unsold new crop production at the same time
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    • Focus the majority of sales in the 1 st half of the year
    • March through June is usually best
    Rule # 1
  • 49.
    • December 2007 Corn
    © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. Both Lines Over 75 = Roach Ag Sell Signal
  • 50. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. Roach Ag Sell Signals Your Digital Thermometer For Prices
  • 51. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. Roach Ag Sell Signals When Both Lines Are Above 75 = Sell Signal
  • 52. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. Roach Ag 2007 Corn Sell Signals 56 Days of Sell Signals ($3.91) and 272 Days Without ($3.71)
  • 53. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. Split your bushels into between 4 or 5 increments and sell one increment of each on each Sell Signal Rule # 2
  • 54. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
    • Sell only when markets are giving us a Roach Ag Sell Signal
    Rule # 3
  • 55. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. Put Opportunity - Buy Puts on some of the Crop You Do Not Want to Sell on a Cash Contract
  • 56. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. Put Opportunity - Buy Puts on some of the Crop You Do Not Want to Sell on a Cash Contract
  • 57. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. Put Opportunity - Buy Puts on some of the Crop You Do Not Want to Sell on a Cash Contract
  • 58. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. Put Opportunity - Buy Puts on some of the Crop You Do Not Want to Sell on a Cash Contract
  • 59. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. Put Opportunity - Buy Puts on some of the Crop You Do Not Want to Sell on a Cash Contract
  • 60. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. Put Opportunity - Buy Puts on some of the Crop You Do Not Want to Sell on a Cash Contract
  • 61. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. Put Opportunity - Buy Puts on some of the Crop You Do Not Want to Sell on a Cash Contract
  • 62. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. Put Opportunity - Buy Puts on some of the Crop You Do Not Want to Sell on a Cash Contract
  • 63. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. Put Opportunity - Buy Puts on some of the Crop You Do Not Want to Sell on a Cash Contract
  • 64. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. Put Opportunity - Buy Puts on some of the Crop You Do Not Want to Sell on a Cash Contract
  • 65. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. Put Opportunity - Buy Puts on some of the Crop You Do Not Want to Sell on a Cash Contract
  • 66. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. Put Opportunity - Buy Puts on some of the Crop You Do Not Want to Sell on a Cash Contract
  • 67. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. 7601 N. Federal Hwy Suite 265-B Boca Raton, FL 33487 800-622-7628 [email_address] http://www.roachag.com