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© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. Grain Price Outlook and Market Strategies for Nidera by John Roach August 17, 2009
© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.  7601 N. Federal Hwy Suite 265-B Boca Raton, FL  33487 800-622-7628 [e...
© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. Why were grain prices so bullish in May and June?
© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. World Soybean Crop down 27.4 million tons - 34% of entire U.S. Crop
<ul><li>Dollar Index </li></ul>© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. Weak Dollar from Feb to June 09 then stopped going lower Traders...
© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. March Intentions March Intentions
© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. <ul><li>Tight U.S. soybean ending stocks this year and tight corn stocks next year were forecas...
© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. <ul><li>South American crops quit shrinking </li></ul><ul><li>U.S. Dollar quit getting cheaper ...
© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. What do the Fundamentals Look Like Now?
© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. World Soybean Crop is forecast  31.5 Million tons bigger than last year
© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. <ul><li>U.S. and world inventory very tight now </li></ul><ul><li>We must raise big U.S. crop t...
© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. <ul><li>World coarse grain ending stocks ample </li></ul><ul><li>U.S. ending stocks are now amp...
© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. <ul><li>World wheat ending stocks as a percentage of usage are 5 th  largest on record  </li></...
© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. How Should I Market My Crops?
© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. Roach Ag Sales Plan <ul><li>Make as many of your sales as possible during the months of March, ...
© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. <ul><li>Focus the majority of sales in the 1 st  half of the year </li></ul><ul><li>March throu...
<ul><li>December 2007 Corn </li></ul>© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. Both Lines Over 75 = Roach Ag Sell Signal
© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. Roach Ag Sell Signals Your Digital Thermometer For Prices
© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. Roach Ag Sell Signals When Both Lines Are Above 75 = Sell Signal
© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. Roach Ag 2007 Corn Sell Signals 56 Days of Sell Signals ($3.91) and 272 Days Without ($3.71)
© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. Split your bushels into between 4 or 5 increments and sell one increment of each on each Sell S...
© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. <ul><li>Sell only when markets are giving us a Roach Ag Sell Signal </li></ul>Rule # 3
© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. Put Opportunity -  Buy Puts on some of the Crop You Do Not Want to Sell on a Cash Contract
© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. Put Opportunity -  Buy Puts on some of the Crop You Do Not Want to Sell on a Cash Contract
© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. Put Opportunity -  Buy Puts on some of the Crop You Do Not Want to Sell on a Cash Contract
© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. Put Opportunity -  Buy Puts on some of the Crop You Do Not Want to Sell on a Cash Contract
© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. Put Opportunity -  Buy Puts on some of the Crop You Do Not Want to Sell on a Cash Contract
© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. Put Opportunity -  Buy Puts on some of the Crop You Do Not Want to Sell on a Cash Contract
© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. Put Opportunity -  Buy Puts on some of the Crop You Do Not Want to Sell on a Cash Contract
© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. Put Opportunity -  Buy Puts on some of the Crop You Do Not Want to Sell on a Cash Contract
© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. Put Opportunity -  Buy Puts on some of the Crop You Do Not Want to Sell on a Cash Contract
© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. Put Opportunity -  Buy Puts on some of the Crop You Do Not Want to Sell on a Cash Contract
© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. Put Opportunity -  Buy Puts on some of the Crop You Do Not Want to Sell on a Cash Contract
© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. Put Opportunity -  Buy Puts on some of the Crop You Do Not Want to Sell on a Cash Contract
© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.  7601 N. Federal Hwy Suite 265-B Boca Raton, FL  33487 800-622-7628 [e...
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Nidera In Chicago 8 17 2009

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Transcript of "Nidera In Chicago 8 17 2009"

  1. 1. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. Grain Price Outlook and Market Strategies for Nidera by John Roach August 17, 2009
  2. 2. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. 7601 N. Federal Hwy Suite 265-B Boca Raton, FL 33487 800-622-7628 [email_address] http://www.roachag.com
  3. 3. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. Why were grain prices so bullish in May and June?
  4. 4. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. World Soybean Crop down 27.4 million tons - 34% of entire U.S. Crop
  5. 5. <ul><li>Dollar Index </li></ul>© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. Weak Dollar from Feb to June 09 then stopped going lower Traders’ 1 st Target
  6. 6. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. March Intentions March Intentions
  7. 7. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. <ul><li>Tight U.S. soybean ending stocks this year and tight corn stocks next year were forecast </li></ul><ul><li>Slow U.S plantings caused acreage and yield worries </li></ul><ul><li>China building soybean reserves </li></ul><ul><li>Fear of rampant inflation </li></ul><ul><li>Massive speculative money came into grain markets as traders chased bull market moves </li></ul>In Addition We Had
  8. 8. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. <ul><li>South American crops quit shrinking </li></ul><ul><li>U.S. Dollar quit getting cheaper </li></ul><ul><li>There is no inflation….yet </li></ul><ul><li>China quit buying </li></ul><ul><li>U.S. farmers planted more acres than expected and the weather became nearly perfect for big crops </li></ul>Why Have Prices dropped?
  9. 9. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. What do the Fundamentals Look Like Now?
  10. 10. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. World Soybean Crop is forecast 31.5 Million tons bigger than last year
  11. 11. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
  12. 12. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
  13. 13. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
  14. 14. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
  15. 15. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
  16. 16. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
  17. 17. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
  18. 18. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
  19. 19. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
  20. 20. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
  21. 21. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
  22. 22. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. <ul><li>U.S. and world inventory very tight now </li></ul><ul><li>We must raise big U.S. crop this year & South America next year </li></ul><ul><li>2010 ending stocks increasing but still tight </li></ul><ul><li>Prices headed down into harvest depending on frost and Dollar value </li></ul>Bean Situation and Price Outlook
  23. 23. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
  24. 24. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
  25. 25. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
  26. 26. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
  27. 27. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
  28. 28. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
  29. 29. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
  30. 30. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
  31. 31. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
  32. 32. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
  33. 33. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
  34. 34. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
  35. 35. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. <ul><li>World coarse grain ending stocks ample </li></ul><ul><li>U.S. ending stocks are now ample </li></ul><ul><li>Livestock producers losing money </li></ul><ul><li>We still need a big corn crop every year </li></ul><ul><li>Prices headed toward harvest lows – dependant on frost date and Dollar value </li></ul>Corn Situation and Price Outlook
  36. 36. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
  37. 37. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
  38. 38. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
  39. 39. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
  40. 40. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
  41. 41. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
  42. 42. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
  43. 43. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. <ul><li>World wheat ending stocks as a percentage of usage are 5 th largest on record </li></ul><ul><li>Look for fewer acres in 2010 </li></ul><ul><li>Prices increasingly dominated by former Soviet Union production </li></ul><ul><li>CFTC Index fund changes may hurt </li></ul>Wheat Situation and Price Outlook
  44. 44. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. How Should I Market My Crops?
  45. 45. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. Roach Ag Sales Plan <ul><li>Make as many of your sales as possible during the months of March, April, May and June. Avoid October and November </li></ul><ul><li>Sell in increments to take advantage of several market peaks using Roach Ag Sell Signals </li></ul><ul><li>Buy puts on unsold new crop production at the same time </li></ul>
  46. 46. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
  47. 47. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
  48. 48. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. <ul><li>Focus the majority of sales in the 1 st half of the year </li></ul><ul><li>March through June is usually best </li></ul>Rule # 1
  49. 49. <ul><li>December 2007 Corn </li></ul>© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. Both Lines Over 75 = Roach Ag Sell Signal
  50. 50. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. Roach Ag Sell Signals Your Digital Thermometer For Prices
  51. 51. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. Roach Ag Sell Signals When Both Lines Are Above 75 = Sell Signal
  52. 52. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. Roach Ag 2007 Corn Sell Signals 56 Days of Sell Signals ($3.91) and 272 Days Without ($3.71)
  53. 53. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. Split your bushels into between 4 or 5 increments and sell one increment of each on each Sell Signal Rule # 2
  54. 54. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. <ul><li>Sell only when markets are giving us a Roach Ag Sell Signal </li></ul>Rule # 3
  55. 55. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. Put Opportunity - Buy Puts on some of the Crop You Do Not Want to Sell on a Cash Contract
  56. 56. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. Put Opportunity - Buy Puts on some of the Crop You Do Not Want to Sell on a Cash Contract
  57. 57. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. Put Opportunity - Buy Puts on some of the Crop You Do Not Want to Sell on a Cash Contract
  58. 58. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. Put Opportunity - Buy Puts on some of the Crop You Do Not Want to Sell on a Cash Contract
  59. 59. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. Put Opportunity - Buy Puts on some of the Crop You Do Not Want to Sell on a Cash Contract
  60. 60. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. Put Opportunity - Buy Puts on some of the Crop You Do Not Want to Sell on a Cash Contract
  61. 61. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. Put Opportunity - Buy Puts on some of the Crop You Do Not Want to Sell on a Cash Contract
  62. 62. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. Put Opportunity - Buy Puts on some of the Crop You Do Not Want to Sell on a Cash Contract
  63. 63. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. Put Opportunity - Buy Puts on some of the Crop You Do Not Want to Sell on a Cash Contract
  64. 64. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. Put Opportunity - Buy Puts on some of the Crop You Do Not Want to Sell on a Cash Contract
  65. 65. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. Put Opportunity - Buy Puts on some of the Crop You Do Not Want to Sell on a Cash Contract
  66. 66. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. Put Opportunity - Buy Puts on some of the Crop You Do Not Want to Sell on a Cash Contract
  67. 67. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. 7601 N. Federal Hwy Suite 265-B Boca Raton, FL 33487 800-622-7628 [email_address] http://www.roachag.com
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