Illinois and iowa 7 12 to 7-20-2010
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  • 1. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. Grain Price Outlook and Market Strategies For Wyffels’ Corn Strategies 2010 Presented by: John Roach July13 & 20, 2010
  • 2.
    • Disclaimer:
    • These data and comments are provided for information purposes only and are not intended to be used for specific trading strategies. Although all information is believed to be reliable, we cannot guarantee its accuracy or completeness. Commodity trading involves the risk of loss, and you should fully understand those risks before trading.  Past financial results are not necessarily indicative of future performance.
    • John Roach was paid an honorarium to make the following presentation. John Roach is completely responsible for the content that follows.
  • 3. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. What are the Fundamentals Now?
  • 4. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
  • 5. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
  • 6. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
  • 7. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
  • 8. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
  • 9. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
  • 10. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
  • 11. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
  • 12.  
  • 13.  
  • 14. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. July 2010 42.9 Bu / Acre
  • 15. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. Iowa Soybean Plantings Condition (10,200 thousand acres) SOURCE: USDA June 30, 2010 Planted Acres Report and July 12, 2010 Crop Progress Report
  • 16. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. Illinois Soybean Plantings Condition (9,300 thousand acres) SOURCE: USDA June 30, 2010 Planted Acres Report and July 12, 2010 Crop Progress Report
  • 17. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. Minnesota Soybean Plantings Condition (7,500 thousand acres) SOURCE: USDA June 30, 2010 Planted Acres Report and July 12, 2010 Crop Progress Report
  • 18. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. Missouri Soybean Plantings Condition (7,500 thousand acres) SOURCE: USDA June 30, 2010 Planted Acres Report and July 12, 2010 Crop Progress Report
  • 19. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
  • 20. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
  • 21. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
  • 22. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. July 1, 2010
  • 23. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
  • 24. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
  • 25. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
  • 26. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
    • Tight stocks until harvest
    • 2010 supplies becoming more surplus
    • Prices headed toward harvest lows if no weather problems
    • S. America will still be shipping in Dec. hurting new crop bean price
    Bean Situation and Price Outlook
  • 27. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
  • 28. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
  • 29. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. USDA 2009 World Corn Yields 12/10/09 Non – U.S. 58.9 Bu/Acre World 80.3 Bu/Acre U.S. 162.9 Bu/Acre
  • 30. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
  • 31. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
  • 32. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
  • 33.  
  • 34.  
  • 35. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. July 2010 163.5 Bu / Ac
  • 36. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. Iowa Corn Plantings Condition (13,300 thousand acres) SOURCE: USDA June 30, 2010 Planted Acres Report and July 12, 2010 Crop Progress Report
  • 37. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. Illinois Corn Plantings Condition (12,600 thousand acres) SOURCE: USDA June 30, 2010 Planted Acres Report and July 12, 2010 Crop Progress Report
  • 38. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. Nebraska Corn Plantings Condition (8,800 thousand acres) SOURCE: USDA June 30, 2010 Planted Acres Report and July 12, 2010 Crop Progress Report
  • 39. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. Minnesota Corn Plantings Condition (7,500 thousand acres) SOURCE: USDA June 30, 2010 Planted Acres Report and July 12, 2010 Crop Progress Report
  • 40. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. U.S. Corn Condition (% Good, Excellent)
  • 41. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
  • 42. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
  • 43. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
  • 44. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
  • 45. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
  • 46. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
  • 47. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
  • 48. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. July 1, 2010
  • 49. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
  • 50. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
  • 51. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
  • 52. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
    • World coarse grain and U.S. ending stocks smaller
    • Poor quality took more bushels
    • This year crop quality back to normal
    • We need a big corn crop in 2011
    • Prices headed to harvest low- sell ‘11 and ‘12
    • Inflation gone
    Corn Situation and Price Outlook
  • 53. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. How Should I Market My Crops?
  • 54. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
    • Focus the majority of sales in the 1 st half of the year
    • March through June is usually best
    Rule # 1
  • 55. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
  • 56. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
  • 57. Why Market Grain Aggressively?
    • In the last 21 years,
    • Comparing December Corn Futures in
    • March–June vs. Oct-Nov
    • Dropped Significantly – 15 years
    • Drifted Sideways – 3 years
    • Increased Significantly – 3 years
    • Marketing Ahead is Correct 85% of the Time!
  • 58. What is it worth? The 5 Year Ave. of Dec corn during Oct – Nov $3.07 0.66 The 5 Year Ave. of Dec corn during Roach Mar – June Sell Signals = $3.73
  • 59. What is it worth? 150 bpa X 0.66 = $100 per acre
  • 60. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
    • Sell only when markets are giving us a Roach Ag Sell Signal
    Rule # 2
  • 61.
    • December 2007 Corn
    © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. Both Lines Over 75 = Roach Ag Sell Signal
  • 62. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. Roach Ag Sell & Buy Signals Your Digital Thermometer For Prices
  • 63. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. Roach Ag Sell Signals When Both Lines Are Above 75 = Sell Signal
  • 64. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. Roach Ag 2007 Corn Sell Signals 56 Days of Sell Signals ($3.91) and 272 Days Without ($3.71)
  • 65. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
    • Figure out the percentage of bushels you are comfortable selling each and every spring and tie that % to the your crop insurance policy coverage level
    Rule # 3
  • 66. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
    • Make sure you have enough on-farm or other owned storage to hold the balance of a crop using your best ever yields
    Rule # 4
  • 67. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
    • Make sure you sell enough in the spring prior to harvest to generate necessary cash-flow from harvest through February
    Rule # 5
  • 68. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
    • Split your old crop bushels and new crop contracts into between 3 and 5 increments and sell one increment of each on each Sell Signal
    Rule # 6
  • 69. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. Put Opportunity - Buy Puts on some of the Crop You Do Not Want to Sell on a Cash Contract
  • 70. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. Put Opportunity - Buy Puts on some of the Crop You Do Not Want to Sell on a Cash Contract
  • 71. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. Put Opportunity - Buy Puts on some of the Crop You Do Not Want to Sell on a Cash Contract
  • 72. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. Put Opportunity - Buy Puts on some of the Crop You Do Not Want to Sell on a Cash Contract
  • 73. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
  • 74. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. December 2009 Roach Ag. Corn Sell Signals Put Opportunity - Buy Puts on some of the Crop You Do Not Want to Sell on a Cash Contract
  • 75. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. December 2010 Roach Ag. Corn Sell Signals
  • 76. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. Put Opportunity - Buy Puts on some of the Crop You Do Not Want to Sell on a Cash Contract
  • 77. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. Put Opportunity - Buy Puts on some of the Crop You Do Not Want to Sell on a Cash Contract
  • 78. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. Put Opportunity - Buy Puts on some of the Crop You Do Not Want to Sell on a Cash Contract
  • 79. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. Put Opportunity - Buy Puts on some of the Crop You Do Not Want to Sell on a Cash Contract
  • 80. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.
  • 81. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. Put Opportunity - Buy Puts on some of the Crop You Do Not Want to Sell on a Cash Contract
  • 82. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. Nov. 2010 Roach Ag. Bean Sell Signals
  • 83. What About the Grain You Don’t Want to Sell Ahead?
    • Build Storage to hold increasingly larger yields
    • Increased infrastructure will reduce harvest bottlenecks
    • Reduce drying and shrink costs
    • Capture the futures carry available
    • Capture the improvement in basis and competition between bids
    • Space out your workload
    • Avoid extremely low harvest bids
    • Price Risk
      • “ If I sell, Prices might go higher.”
    • Marketing Risk
      • “ If I oversell, I won’t have enough money to buy-back my sales.”
  • 84.
    • Buy Puts on spring Sell Signals
    • Hold them until an August – September Buy Signal
    • It takes advantage of the normal price decline
    • Cash in and wait until next year
    • May also sell Calls if margin calls don’t freak you out – you have to fund Call option loss as it occurs
    • Spend about 30 cents on corn and 50 cents on bean
    • Frequently able to double your money – but will lose premium if prices don’t go down
    Cover Unsold Grain With Put Options
  • 85. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. The Information Revolution is Driving the Long Term Demand for Milk, Meat, and Eggs
  • 86. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. 7601 N. Federal Hwy Suite 265-B Boca Raton, FL 33487 800-622-7628 [email_address] http:// www.roachag.com