Grain Price Outlook and Market Strategies<br />Cruise The Crop Markets<br />by John Roach<br />January 17 - 24, 2010<br />...
How Should I Market My Crops?<br />© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.<br />
© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.<br />
© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.<br />
© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.<br />
Roach Ag Sales Plan<br />Make as many of your sales as possible during the months of March, April, May and June.  Avoid Oc...
Rule # 1<br /><ul><li>Focus the majority of sales in the 1st half of the year
March through June is usually best</li></ul>© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.<br />
© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.<br />December 2007 Corn<br />Both Lines Over 75 = Roach Ag Sell Signal<br />
Roach Ag Sell & Buy Signals<br />Your Digital Thermometer For Prices<br />© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.<br />
Roach Ag Sell Signals<br />When Both Lines Are Above 75 = Sell Signal<br />© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.<br />
Roach Ag 2007 Corn Sell Signals<br />56 Days of Sell Signals ($3.91) and 272 Days Without ($3.71)<br />© Roach Ag Marketin...
Rule # 2<br /><ul><li>Sell only when markets are giving us a Roach Ag Sell Signal</li></ul>© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.<br />
Rule # 3<br /><ul><li>Figure out the percentage of bushels you are comfortable selling each and every spring and tie that ...
Rule # 4<br /><ul><li>Make sure you have enough on-farm or other owned storage to hold the balance of a crop using your be...
Rule # 5<br /><ul><li>Make sure you sell enough in the spring prior to harvest to generate necessary cash-flow from harves...
Rule # 6<br /><ul><li>Split your old crop bushels and new crop contracts into between 3 and 5 increments and sell one incr...
Put Opportunity - Buy Puts on some of the Crop You Do Not Want to Sell on a Cash Contract<br />© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.<...
Put Opportunity - Buy Puts on some of the Crop You Do Not Want to Sell on a Cash Contract<br />© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.<...
© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.<br />
Put Opportunity - Buy Puts on some of the Crop You Do Not Want to Sell on a Cash Contract<br />© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.<...
© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.<br />
Put Opportunity - Buy Puts on some of the Crop You Do Not Want to Sell on a Cash Contract<br />© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.<...
© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.<br />
© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.<br />
© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.<br />
Put Opportunity - Buy Puts on some of the Crop You Do Not Want to Sell on a Cash Contract<br />December 2009 Corn Sales<br...
© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.<br />
Put Opportunity - Buy Puts on some of the Crop You Do Not Want to Sell on a Cash Contract<br />© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.<...
Put Opportunity - Buy Puts on some of the Crop You Do Not Want to Sell on a Cash Contract<br />© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.<...
© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.<br />
Put Opportunity - Buy Puts on some of the Crop You Do Not Want to Sell on a Cash Contract<br />© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.<...
© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.<br />
Put Opportunity - Buy Puts on some of the Crop You Do Not Want to Sell on a Cash Contract<br />© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.<...
© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.<br />
© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.<br />
© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.<br />
Put Opportunity - Buy Puts on some of the Crop You Do Not Want to Sell on a Cash Contract<br />© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.<...
© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.<br />
Roach Ag Marketing Plan <br />Worksheet<br />© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.<br />
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Cruise The Crop Markets 2010 Day 2

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Cruise The Crop Markets 2010 Day 2

  1. 1. Grain Price Outlook and Market Strategies<br />Cruise The Crop Markets<br />by John Roach<br />January 17 - 24, 2010<br />Day 2<br />© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.<br />
  2. 2. How Should I Market My Crops?<br />© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.<br />
  3. 3. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.<br />
  4. 4. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.<br />
  5. 5. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.<br />
  6. 6. Roach Ag Sales Plan<br />Make as many of your sales as possible during the months of March, April, May and June. Avoid October and November<br />Sell in increments to take advantage of several market peaks using Roach Ag Sell Signals<br />Buy puts on unsold new crop production with either profit goal or insurance goal <br />© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.<br />
  7. 7. Rule # 1<br /><ul><li>Focus the majority of sales in the 1st half of the year
  8. 8. March through June is usually best</li></ul>© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.<br />
  9. 9. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.<br />December 2007 Corn<br />Both Lines Over 75 = Roach Ag Sell Signal<br />
  10. 10. Roach Ag Sell & Buy Signals<br />Your Digital Thermometer For Prices<br />© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.<br />
  11. 11. Roach Ag Sell Signals<br />When Both Lines Are Above 75 = Sell Signal<br />© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.<br />
  12. 12. Roach Ag 2007 Corn Sell Signals<br />56 Days of Sell Signals ($3.91) and 272 Days Without ($3.71)<br />© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.<br />
  13. 13. Rule # 2<br /><ul><li>Sell only when markets are giving us a Roach Ag Sell Signal</li></ul>© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.<br />
  14. 14. Rule # 3<br /><ul><li>Figure out the percentage of bushels you are comfortable selling each and every spring and tie that % to the your crop insurance policy coverage level</li></ul>© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.<br />
  15. 15. Rule # 4<br /><ul><li>Make sure you have enough on-farm or other owned storage to hold the balance of a crop using your best ever yields</li></ul>© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.<br />
  16. 16. Rule # 5<br /><ul><li>Make sure you sell enough in the spring prior to harvest to generate necessary cash-flow from harvest through February</li></ul>© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.<br />
  17. 17. Rule # 6<br /><ul><li>Split your old crop bushels and new crop contracts into between 3 and 5 increments and sell one increment of each on each Sell Signal </li></ul>© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.<br />
  18. 18. Put Opportunity - Buy Puts on some of the Crop You Do Not Want to Sell on a Cash Contract<br />© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.<br />
  19. 19. Put Opportunity - Buy Puts on some of the Crop You Do Not Want to Sell on a Cash Contract<br />© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.<br />
  20. 20. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.<br />
  21. 21. Put Opportunity - Buy Puts on some of the Crop You Do Not Want to Sell on a Cash Contract<br />© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.<br />
  22. 22. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.<br />
  23. 23. Put Opportunity - Buy Puts on some of the Crop You Do Not Want to Sell on a Cash Contract<br />© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.<br />
  24. 24. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.<br />
  25. 25. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.<br />
  26. 26. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.<br />
  27. 27. Put Opportunity - Buy Puts on some of the Crop You Do Not Want to Sell on a Cash Contract<br />December 2009 Corn Sales<br />© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.<br />
  28. 28. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.<br />
  29. 29. Put Opportunity - Buy Puts on some of the Crop You Do Not Want to Sell on a Cash Contract<br />© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.<br />
  30. 30. Put Opportunity - Buy Puts on some of the Crop You Do Not Want to Sell on a Cash Contract<br />© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.<br />
  31. 31. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.<br />
  32. 32. Put Opportunity - Buy Puts on some of the Crop You Do Not Want to Sell on a Cash Contract<br />© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.<br />
  33. 33. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.<br />
  34. 34. Put Opportunity - Buy Puts on some of the Crop You Do Not Want to Sell on a Cash Contract<br />© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.<br />
  35. 35. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.<br />
  36. 36. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.<br />
  37. 37. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.<br />
  38. 38. Put Opportunity - Buy Puts on some of the Crop You Do Not Want to Sell on a Cash Contract<br />© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.<br />
  39. 39. © Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.<br />
  40. 40. Roach Ag Marketing Plan <br />Worksheet<br />© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.<br />
  41. 41. Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. <br />7601 N. Federal Hwy<br />Suite 265-B<br />Boca Raton, FL 33487<br />800-622-7628<br />jroach@roachag.com<br />http://www.roachag.com<br />© Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd.<br />
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