Political Science 5 – Western Political Thought - Power Point #12
Western Political Thought Dr. John Paul Tabakian Political Science 5 Fall 2012 – Power Point #12
COURSE LECTURE: WEEK 12 (1)Today’s Lecture Covers The Following:• “The American Persona”• Rationale of domestic policy• Rationale of foreign policy• America’s rise to power• How citizens view their role• Domestic Policies• Foreign Policies• Major Power, Superpower, Hegemonic Power• How did America rise to power?
COURSE LECTURE: WEEK 12 (2)• Bureaucracies• Interest Groups• Obsolescence of War• Security Dilemma• Deterrence• Bandwagoning• Counterbalancing• Models of Decision Making• Decision Making As Steering• Group Psychology
COURSE LECTURE: WEEK 12 (3)• Crisis Management• Military Industrial Complex• Public Opinion• Legislatures• Strategic Defense Initiative• Missile Defense Agency
BUREAUCRACIES• Diplomats – Virtually all states maintain a diplomatic corps, or foreign service, of diplomats in embassies in foreign capitals – Political appointees – Career diplomats – Tension common between state leaders and foreign policy bureaucrats• Interagency tensions – Bureaucratic rivalry as an influence on foreign policy challenges the notion of states as unitary actors in the international system
OBSOLESCENCE OF WAR• Realism • Struggle for power remains constant• Only variable balance of power• Bipolar • Best method for maintaining peace• Multipolar• Unipolar• Deterrence Theory = war is obsolete!
SECURITY DILEMMA• Nation-states pursue national-interests • Stable international system• Competitive security system • States increase their security • Ego’s gain as alter’s loss• Cooperative security system• States equate as collective good• National interests • International interests
DETERRENCEDeterrence has worked because neitherside really knew what the other side wasthinking. A problem with deterrence is thatthe more times bluffs are made it may leadto a time when someone is going to makethe call. At this point there are only threealternatives:1. Resort to nuclear war2. Retreat3. Resort to conventional war
SECURITY DILEMMA• Nation-states pursue individual national-interests • Leads to a stable international system• Competitive security system • States striving to increase their security • Ego’s gain as alter’s loss• Cooperative security system • States equate security of each as to the collective good. • National interests are seen to bolster international interests
BANDWAGONING• Bandwagoning results in attraction • Countries ally themselves with another nation
COUNTERBALANCING• Counterbalancing results in fear • Countries join together to check another nation
MAKING FOREIGN POLICY• Foreign policies are the strategies governments use to guide their actions in the international arena – Spell out the objectives state leaders have decided to pursue in a given relationship or situation – Foreign policy process • How policies are arrived at and implemented
MODELS OF DECISION MAKING (1)• Rational model – Decision makers set goals, evaluate their relative importance, calculate the costs and benefits of each possible course of action, and then choose the one with the highest benefits and lowest costs. – Role of uncertainty – Accepting of risk versus averse to risk
MODELS OF DECISION MAKING (2)• Organizational process model – Foreign policy makers generally skip the labor- intensive process of identifying goals and alternative actions, relying instead for most decisions on standardized responses or standard operating procedures (sop)• Government bargaining (bureaucratic) model: – Foreign policy decisions result from the bargaining process among various government agencies with somewhat divergent interests in the outcome
INDIVIDUAL DECISION MAKERS (1)• Study of individual decision making revolves around the question of rationality – To what extent are national leaders (or citizens) able to make rational decisions in the national interest?• Difficulties of oversimplification – Individual decision makers have differing values and beliefs and have unique personalities. – Idiosyncrasies
INDIVIDUAL DECISION MAKERS (2) • Beyond individual idiosyncrasies, individual decision making diverges from the rational model in at least three systematic ways: • Decision makers suffer from misperceptions and selective perceptions when they compile information on the likely consequences of their choices • The rationality of individual cost-benefit calculations is undermined by emotions that decision makers feel while thinking about the consequences of their actions (affective bias)
INDIVIDUAL DECISION MAKERS (3) • Cognitive biases are systematic distortions of rational calculations based not on emotional feelings, but simply on the limitations of the human brain in making choices • Cognitive dissonance • Justification of effort • Wishful thinking • Mirror image • Projection • Historical analogies
INDIVIDUAL DECISION MAKERS (4)• Two specific modifications of the rational model of decision making have been proposed to accommodate psychological realities – Bounded rationality: • Takes into account the costs of seeking and processing information. – Optimizing – Satisfying – Prospect theory: • Decision makes go through two phases: editing phase and the evaluation phase. • Holds that evaluations take place by comparison with a reference point, which is often the status quo but might be some past or expected situation
GROUP PSYCHOLOGY• Group dynamics can be a promoter of state interests but they can also introduce new sources of irrationality into the decision-making process• Groupthink – Refers to the tendency for groups to reach decisions without accurately assessing their consequences, because individual members tend to go along with ideas they think the others support – Groups tend to be overly optimistic about the chances of success and are thus more willing to take risks • Iran-Contra scandal
CRISIS MANAGEMENT• Crises are foreign policy situations in which outcomes are very important and time frames are compressed –Time constraints –Groupthink –Psychological stress
MILITARY INDUSTRIAL COMPLEX (1)• Huge interlocking network of governmental agencies, industrial corporations, and research institutes, working together to supply a nation’s military forces• Response to the growing importance of technology• Encompasses a variety of constituencies, each of which has an interest in military spending – Corporations, military officers, universities, and scientific institutes that receive military research contracts – Revolving door – PACS from the military industry
MILITARY INDUSTRIAL COMPLEX (2)The phrase, “Military IndustrialComplex” was first used byPresident Dwight D. Eisenhowerduring his farewell address to thenation on January 17, 1961. Hewarns against the increasinginfluence of corporate influence inall areas of government.
PUBLIC OPINION (1)• Range of views on foreign policy issues held by the citizens of a state• Has a greater influence on foreign policy in democracies than in authoritarian governments – Legitimacy – Propaganda – Journalists as gatekeepers
PUBLIC OPINION (2)• In democracies, public opinion generally has less effect on foreign policy than on domestic policy – Attentive public – Foreign policy elite – Rally ’round the flag syndrome – Diversionary foreign policy
LEGISLATURES (1)• Conduit through which interest groups and public opinion can wield influence – Presidential systems; separate elections • Legislatures play a direct role in foreign policy • Different rules apply to military force – Rally ’round the flag – May challenge the president if they have power of the “purse”
LEGISLATURES (2) – Parliamentary systems; political parties are dominant • Often parliamentary executives do not need to submit treaties or policies for formal approval by the legislature • Call elections; new executive • Legislatures play a key role in designing and implementing foreign policy
STRATEGIC DEFENSE INITIATIVE (1)AIRBORNE LASER LABORATORYThe Airborne Laser Lab was a gas-dynamiclaser mounted in a modified version of a KC-135 used for flight testing. Similar to thecommercial Boeing 707, the slightly smallerKC-135 was designed to military specificationsand operated at hight gross weights. TheNKC-135A (S/N 55-3123) is one of 14 KC-135As permanently converted for specialtesting. It was extensively modified by the AirForce weapons Labratory at Kirtland AFB,New Mexico, and used in an 11-yearexperiment to prove a high-energy laser couldbe operated in an aircraft and employedagainst airborne targets. During theexperiment, the Airborne Laser Lab destroyedfive AIM-9 Sidewinder air-to-air missiles and aNavy BQM-34A target drone.
MDA’s mision is to develop and field anintegrated, layered, ballistic missiledefense system to defend the UnitedStates, its deployed forces, allies, andfriends against all ranges of enemyballistic missiles in all phases of flight.The fundamental objective of the BallisticMissile Defense (BMD) program is todevelop the capability to defend forcesand territories of the United States, itsallies and friends against all classes andranges of ballistic missile threats.
The Missile Defense Agency (MDA) has developed aresearch, development and test program focusing on missiledefense as a single layered defense system. The structureinvolves three basic phases of ballistic missile trajectories:boost, midcourse and terminal. Boost phase is the portion offlight immediately after launch, when the missile is to gainacceleration under power to lift its payload into the air(airspace). This lasts 3-5 minutes.
Midcourse phase is the longest part ofthe missile flight. It is where the missilepayload has separated from thebooster rocket and is coastingunpowered toward a target. This phasecan be as long as 20 minutes. The finalphase is called terminal. This is whenthe missiles warhead re-enters theearths atmosphere and falls towardsits target, propelled only by itsmomentum and the force of gravity.However, its speed can be thousandsof miles per hour. This phase lastsapproximately 30 seconds.
BOOST PHASE DEFENSEThe boost phase is the part of a missile flight pathfrom launch until it stops accelerating under its ownpower. Typically the boost phase ends at altitudes of300 miles or less, and within the first 3 to 5 minutesof flight. During this phase, the rocket is climbingagainst the Earths gravity. Intercepting a missile inits boost phase is the ideal solution. We can defend alarge area of the globe and prevent midcourse decoysfrom being deployed by destroying the missile earlyin its flight. Of the boost phase defenses, theAirborne Laser (ABL) is the most mature.
The two types of boost defense elements are:1. Directed energy systems using high power lasers such as the Airborne Laser2. Kinetic energy interceptorsBoost phase elements will be integrated into anoverall Ballistic Missile Defense operational concept.Sensors developed in this segment will have multi-mission capabilities intended to provide criticaltracking data for threat ballistic missiles in allphases of flight.
AIRBORNE LASER1. Designed to detect, track, target, and kill threatening missiles, no matter if they are short, medium, or long- range2. Uses an amalgamation of technologies including a Boeing 747- 400 freighter and Chemical, Oxygen Iodine Laser (COIL)3. Laser destroys the missile by heating its metal skin until it cracks4. Infrared sensors were first tested on the F-14 "Tomcat" fighter aircraft shortly before the first Gulf War
OverviewThe Airborne Laser program brings together a combinationof technologies: a 747 aircraft, an advanced detection andtracking system, adaptive optics, and a revolutionary high-energy laser, all of which are being integrated into a singleweapon system for the first time
Operational Sequence1. The Airborne Laser uses six strategically placed infrared sensors to detect the exhaust plume of a boosting missile2. Once a target is detected, a kilowatt-class laser, the Track Illuminator, tracks the missile and determines a precise aim point3. The Beacon Illuminator, a second kilowatt-class laser, then measures disturbances in the atmosphere, which are corrected by the adaptive optics system to accurately point and focus the high energy laser4. Using a very large telescope located in the nose turret, the beam control/fire control system focuses the megawatt class laser beam onto a pressurized area of the boosting missile
Development1. Testing was completed on the High Energy Chemical Oxygen Iodine Laser on December 6, 2005. The laser was fired continuously for more than 10 seconds at a power level sufficient to destroy a hostile ballistic missile.2. The Low Power System Integration-active flight test series was successfully completed on Aug. 23, 2007 at Edwards Air Force Base, Calif. During the test, ABL used all three of the aircrafts laser systems to detect, track, and then engaged a target mounted on a test aircraft with a low-power laser that is serving as a surrogate for the high-power laser.3. ABL has begun integration of the High Energy Laser system on the aircraft. Upon completion, the aircraft will undergo additional ground and flight tests prior to the lethal demonstration against a boosting missile in 2009.
KINETIC ENERGY WEAPONS1. The programs primary objective over the next few years is developing an interceptor capable of destroying incoming missiles2. The longer-term objective is to develop an interceptor that can kill ballistic missiles in the midcourse phase of flight3. The first generation of these interceptors, called the Kinetic Energy Interceptor (KEI) element4. System was tested fully in 2011
Kinetic Energy InterceptorsThe Kinetic Energy Interceptors program’s mission is to providethe Ballistic Missile Defense System a strategically deployable,tactically mobile land and sea-based capability to defeat mediumto long-range ballistic missiles during the boost, ascent, andmidcourse phases of flight. The Kinetic Energy Interceptorsweapon system has the potential capacity to be deployed as anelement of the Integrated Ballistic Missile Defense System inthree configurations: land-mobile, sea-mobile, and land-fixed.These multiple deployment configurations increase engagementopportunities, enhance the Ballistic Missile Defense System’slayered defensive capability, and decrease life-cycle operationcosts by leveraging common sub-components across the threedeployed configurations.
OverviewThe Kinetic Energy Interceptors weaponsystem is comprised of three majorcomponents: a missile launcher; a firecontrol and communications unit; and ahigh acceleration interceptor that deliverspayloads capable of destroying adversaryballistic missiles and their lethal payloadsusing kinetic energy.
Details1. The Kinetic Energy Interceptors destroy ballistic missiles in the boost, ascent, or midcourse phases of flight2. During boost or ascent phase intercepts, the interceptor’s payload acquires, homes, and kinetically destroys a hot burning threat ballistic missile prior to deployment of its lethal payload, decoys, and countermeasures3. For midcourse phase intercepts, the interceptor’s payload acquires, discriminates the missile’s deployed lethal payload from accompanying decoys, countermeasures and exhausted boost motors, and then destroys the lethal payload
4. The Kinetic Energy Interceptors weapon system’s mobility enables rapid deployment near an adversary’s launch sites and subsequent early battle-space engagements of the adversary’s ballistic missile in the boost, ascent, and early midcourse phases of flight.5. Mobility provides the operational flexibility to respond to changing adversary conditions (countries, countermeasures, and tactics) and mitigates an adversary’s capability to exploit our fixed-site ballistic missile defense weapon systems.6. The Kinetic Energy Interceptors fire control component interfaces with the Ballistic Missile Defense System command and control element, Ballistic Missile Defense System sensors and other overhead sensors to obtain threat tracking data.
MIDCOURSE PHASE DEFENSEThe midcourse phase of a ballistic missile trajectoryallows the longest window of opportunity to intercept anincoming missile up to 20 minutes. This is the pointwhere the missile has stopped thrusting so it follows amore predictable glide path. The midcourse interceptorand a variety of radars and other sensors have a longertime to track and engage the target compared to boostand terminal interceptors. Also, more than oneinterceptor could be launched to ensure a successful hit.A downside to the longer intercept window is theattacker has an opportunity to deploy countermeasuresagainst a defensive system.
Primary Elements Of Midcourse Defense Segment1. Ground Based Midcourse Defense (GMD)2. Aegis Ballistic Missile Defense (Aegis BMD)Ground Based Midcourse (GMD)1. Defends against long-range ballistic missile attacks2. During a GMD intercept, a booster missile flies toward a targets predicted location and releases a "kill vehicle" on a path with the incoming target.3. The kill vehicle uses data from ground-based radars and its own on-board sensors to collide with the target, thus destroying both the target and the kill vehicle using only the force of the impact
Ground Based Midcourse Defense (GMD)The mission of the Ground-Based MidcourseDefense element of the Ballistic Missile DefenseSystem is to defend the nation, our deployedpersonnel, and our friends and allies against alimited long-range ballistic missile attack.Overview1. Uses an array of sensors, radars, and ground-based interceptors that are capable of shooting down long- range ballistic missiles during the midcourse phase2. Directly hits the incoming missile by ramming the warhead with a closing speed of approximately 15,000 miles per hour to destroy it. This is called “hit-to-kill” technology and has been proven to work
DetailsGround-Based Midcourse Defense iscomposed of three main components:sensors, ground-based interceptors,and fire control and communications1. Sensors: Ground-Based Midcourse Defense uses a variety of sensors and radars to obtain information on missile launches and to track, discriminate, and target an incoming warhead. This information is provided to the Ground-Based Interceptor before launch and during flight to help it find the incoming ballistic missile and close with it.
2. Ground-Based Interceptor: A Ground-Based Interceptor is made up of a three-stage, solid fuel booster and an exoatmospheric kill vehicle. When launched, the booster missile carries the kill vehicle toward the target’s predicted location in space. Once released from the booster, the 152 pound kill vehicle uses data received in-flight from ground- based radars and its own on-board sensors to close with and destroy the target using only the force of the impact.3. Fire Control and Communications: This is the central nervous system of the Ground-Based Midcourse Defense element. It connects all of the hardware, software and communications systems necessary for planning, tasking and controlling Ground-Based Midcourse Defense.
Development1. Interceptor missiles are emplaced at Fort Greely, Alaska and Vandenberg Air Force Base, Calif. More are planned to be emplaced in 20062. Ground-Based Midcourse Defense fire control centers are in Colorado and Alaska3. Several existing early warning radars located around the world, including one on Shemya Island in the Alaskan Aleutian chain, have been upgraded to support flight tests and to provide tracking information in the event of a hostile missile attack4. Nearing completion is a powerful, mobile Sea-based X-Band radar that is scheduled to be fully integrated into the Ballistic Missile Defense System in 2006
AEGISThe sea-based system is intended tointercept short to medium rangehostile missiles in the ascent anddescent phase of midcourse flight.Engaging missiles in the ascent phasereduces the overall BMD Systemssusceptibility to countermeasures.Builds upon technologies in theexisting Aegis Weapons System nowaboard U.S. Navy ships and uses theStandard Missile 3.
Aegis Ballistic Missile DefenseAegis Ballistic Missile Defense is the sea-basedelement of the Missile Defense Agency’sBallistic Missile Defense System that has beentactically certified, deployed and contributes tothe ongoing BMD System under development.Aegis Ballistic Missile Defense leverages andbuilds upon capabilities inherent in the AegisWeapon System, Standard Missile, and NavyBallistic Missile Command, Control,Communications, Computers, and Intelligencesystems. Aegis is at sea, on patrol, certified,and on alert, performing a strategic role inHomeland Defense.
Aegis Ballistic Missile Defense Long Range Surveillanceand Track:1. Aegis Destroyers, on Ballistic Missile Defense patrol, detect and track Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles and report track data to the missile defense system. This capability shares tracking data to cue other missile defense sensors and provides fire control data to Ground-based Midcourse Defense interceptors located at Fort Greely, Alaska and Vandenberg Air Force Base, California. To date, sixteen Aegis Cruisers and Destroyers have been upgraded with the Long Range Surveillance and Track capability.2. At-sea tracking events and flight tests have verified the capability to track Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles and demonstrated the connectivity and reliability of long-haul transmission of track data across nine time zones.
Engagement Capability1. Aegis Cruisers and Long Range Surveillance and Track Destroyers are equipped with the capability to intercept short and medium range, unitary and separating ballistic missile threats with the Standard Missile 3.2. Flight tests are conducted using operational warships, operated by fleet Sailors and Officers. Each test progressively increases the operational realism and complexity of targets and scenarios. To date, there have been nine successful intercepts out of eleven attempts. The next flight mission is scheduled for summer, 2008.3. The engagement capability will be resident in three Aegis Cruisers and 15 Destroyers by 2009. Additionally, the capability is present on several Japanese ships and other nations are interested.
TestingTo date, including a dual engagement in November, 2007and the first test by an allied Navy in December, 2007,the Aegis BMD has had 12 intercepts in 14 attempts,including two intercepts by two interceptors during onetest. Multiple tests are planned for each year.Future Capabilities1. Increased precision track data via radar signal processing upgrades, improving both Long Range Surveillance and Track and engagement capabilities2. Defense against intermediate and intercontinental ballistic missiles3. Increased international participation in sea-based ballistic missile defense capabilities
TERMINAL PHASE DEFENSEA missile enters the terminal phase when the warheadfalls back into the atmosphere. This phase generallylasts from 30 seconds to one minute. The primaryelements in the Terminal Defense Segment are:1. Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD)2. PATRIOT Advanced Capability-3 (PAC-3)3. Arrow, a joint effort between the U.S. and Israel4. Medium Extended Air Defense System (MEADS), a co-developmental program with Germany and Italy
Terminal High Altitude Area Defense System(THAAD)1. THAAD will destroy a ballistic missile as it transitions from the midcourse to terminal phase of its trajectory2. A land-based element that has the capability to shoot down a short or medium range ballistic missile in its final stages of flight3. Consists of four principal components: truck- mounted launchers; interceptors; radars; and command, control and battle management (C2BM)4. All system components fit inside a C-130 aircraft for transport around the world
Arrow1. Developed jointly by the U.S. and Israel. Provides capability to defend against short and medium-range ballistic missiles2. Became operational in October 20003. Arrow Deployability Program (ADP) supports Israels acquisition of a third Arrow battery and Arrows interoperability with U.S. systems4. Arrow System Improvement Program (ASIP) includes both technical cooperation to improve the performance of the AWS and a cooperative test and evaluation program to validate the improved performance
PATRIOT PAC-3 Program1. The most mature elements of the BMDS2. Transferred to the U. S. Army in 2003.3. MDA still responsible for PAC-3s integration into BMDS4. Builds on the previous PATRIOT air and missile defense infrastructure5. PAC-3 missiles were deployed to Southwest Asia as part of Operation Iraqi Freedom in 2003
Medium Extended Air Defense System1. A cooperative effort between the United States, Germany, and Italy to develop an air and missile defense system that is mobile and transportable2. Capable of countering ballistic missiles and air-breathing threats such as aircraft, unmanned aerial vehicles, and cruise missiles, utilizing a radar with a 360 degree capability3. Uses the combat-proven Patriot Advanced Capability-3 (PAC-3) as a platform
4. MEADS role in ballistic missile defense is to bridge the gap between man-portable systems like the Stinger missile and the higher levels of the (BMDS), such as the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) system5. Offers the opportunity for U. S. forces to work in conjunction with our allies and contributes to the interoperability of U. S. and allied forces ballistic missile defense systems6. Future development will be an Army-led effort because of its close association with PAC-3
SensorsAn effective layered defense incorporates a wide-rangeof sensors to detect and track threat missiles through allphases of their trajectory. Satellites and a family of land-and sea-based radars provide worldwide sensorcoverage.Space Tracking and Surveillance System (STSS)The restructured Space Tracking and SurveillanceSystem (STSS) will be a constellation of interoperableResearch and Development (R&D) satellites andsupporting ground infrastructure for the detection,tracking and discrimination of ballistic missiles. Datafrom STSS will be used to allow BMDS interceptors toengage incoming missiles earlier in flight. Plans are forSTSS to be incorporated into the missile defense TestBed beginning in 2006-2007.
Defense Support Program (DSP) SatellitesExisting Defense Support Program (DSP)satellites, now orbiting the earth in ageosynchronous orbit, provide global coveragefor early warning, tracking and identification.Besides warning of a ballistic missile launch,satellite sensors can develop an early estimate ofwhere the hostile missile is headed. Integrationof DSP into the initial missile defense capabilityprovides first, accurate warning and earlytracking of a ballistic missile launch.
Space Based Infrared System (SBIRS)The Space Based Infrared System (SBIRS)constellation will provide early warning ofballistic missile attacks and accurate statevector information to effectively cue otherBallistic Missile Defense System elements tosupport, intercept and negate the threat.Currently under development by the U.S.Air Force, SBIRS will provide early warningmessages, accurate launch point estimatesto support theater attack operations, radarcue for enhanced active defense for boththeater operations and Ground MissileDefense operations.
Early Warning Radars (EWR)MDA is upgrading the hardware andsoftware of existing ground-based radarslocated in California, Alaska andoverseas for incorporation into initialdefense capabilities. These upgradeswill allow the radar to more accuratelydetermine where an incoming ballisticmissile is headed.
THAAD RadarThe TPS-X radar produced for theTerminal High Altitude Area Defense(THAAD) missile system will beupgraded to be used in the Test Bedto validate algorithms and supportforward based capability for nearand long-term missile defensecapabilities.
Forward Deployable Radars (FDR)Forward Deployable Radars would provideadditional layers of sensor capability and moreeffective tracking of hostile missiles. Forwardbasing of ground based radars places theradar where it can obtain data from early partsof an ICBM’s trajectory and provides for earlyand accurate target-tracing and signaturedata, permitting earlier launch of defenseinterceptors and a greater battle space withinwhich they can operate. Derived from theTerminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD)X-band radar, it is air-transportable, addingthe ability to quickly move the radar to where itis most needed.