Stephen H. Schneider *   Melvin and Joan Lane Professor for Interdisciplinary Environmental Studies, Professor,  Departmen...
 
Falsifies Global Warming??
Falsifies Global Warming?? Going to Hell in a Handbasket??
 
 
 
 
 
 
<ul><li>“ Med ia rol ogy ” </li></ul>
 
 
 
 
Hundreds Gather to Protest Global Warming
Hundreds Gather to Protest Global Warming
Hundreds Gather to Protest Global Warming   Non linear “tipping points” matter!
Greenland Ice Melt, 1992 vs. 2002
 
More snow Fast melting
 
 
Moulin Creating a “tipping point”?
Source: Roger Braithwaite, University of Manchester (UK)
Source: Roger Braithwaite, University of Manchester (UK) High tech NASA attempts to discover Greenland tipping point??
 
 
Competing Explanations Tipping    Global Warming
  Some adaptive capacity Source: MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Climate Change <1°C (4.1%; 1 in 24 odds) 1...
NASA After Schaer et al., 2004 Switzerland Summer T, 1860-2003 Extreme Events: Heat
IPCC, 2007 Extreme Events: Heat
Wildfires Frequency increased four fold in last 30 years . Source: Westerling et al. 2006 Western US area burned
Extreme Events: Wildfires Late Snowmelt Years Early Snowmelt Years Fewer, smaller fires More, larger fires Westerling
 
Adaptation??
Adaptation Move up (or polerward); plant (or develop) warmer varieties; or... abandon
  Some adaptive capacity Source: MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Climate Change <1°C (4.1%; 1 in 24 odds) 1...
 
Need Behavior Change  Need Basic Understanding of Underlying Issues of Risk and Risk Management
Need Behavior Change  Need Basic Understanding of Underlying Issues of Risk and Risk Management
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Policy Sequence: 1-Adaptation to change already in the pipeline 2-Performance standards 3-Public private partnerships (inc...
Policy Sequence: 1-Adaptation to change already in the pipeline 2-Performance standards 3-Public private partnerships (inc...
Policy Sequence: 1-Adaptation to change already in the pipeline  --mitigation for changes beyond what we can adapt to 2-Pe...
Policy Sequence: 1-Adaptation to change already in the pipeline 2-Performance standards 3-Public private partnerships (inc...
Source: Rosenfeld 2005
 
If a KWh is $0.15, then 40,000 GWh hours per year is a  savings  of about $6 billion per year!
Policy Sequence: 1-Adaptation to change already in the pipeline 2-Performance standards 3-Public private partnerships (inc...
Methods to achieve announced  climate sustainability goals? <ul><li>Volunteerism </li></ul><ul><li>Technology, R,D & D inc...
Methods to achieve announced  climate sustainability goals? <ul><li>Volunteerism </li></ul><ul><li>Technology, R,D & D inc...
 
 
 
Out of the box thinking :  combined wind, solar thermal with storage, smart grids and uses for “dumped &quot;energy when s...
                                                                                                                          ...
Figure 1. Concept of low-temperature pyrolysis bio-energy with biochar sequestration. Typically, about 50% of the pyrolyze...
Policy Sequence: 1-Adaptation to change already in the pipeline 2-Performance standards 3-Public private partnerships (inc...
Shadow price  on carbon (fee for dumping in the atmosphere—polluter pays principle) -Cap and trade -Carbon tax -Revenue re...
Shadow price  on carbon (fee for dumping in the atmosphere—polluter pays principle) -Cap and trade -Carbon tax -Revenue re...
Shadow price  on carbon (fee for dumping in the atmosphere—polluter pays principle) -Cap and trade -Carbon tax -Revenue re...
Shadow price  on carbon (fee for dumping in the atmosphere—polluter pays principle) -Cap and trade -Carbon tax -Revenue re...
Policy Sequence: 1-Adaptation to change already in the pipeline 2-Performance standards 3-Public private partnerships (inc...
Questions??? Comments??
Upcoming SlideShare
Loading in …5
×

Motivating Game Changing Actions In an Era of Spin and Confusion

939 views
889 views

Published on

Professor Schneider is actively involved with the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) and specializes in projecting global climate change and related impacts for the future. He is also dedicated to communicating science to the public.

Published in: News & Politics, Technology
0 Comments
0 Likes
Statistics
Notes
  • Be the first to comment

  • Be the first to like this

No Downloads
Views
Total views
939
On SlideShare
0
From Embeds
0
Number of Embeds
140
Actions
Shares
0
Downloads
0
Comments
0
Likes
0
Embeds 0
No embeds

No notes for slide
  • Here is an outline of the structure of my talk. First I’ll discuss some of the key findings of a recent Intergovernmental report that investigated the nature and causes of climate change. Then I’ll define some terms that I’ll be using in my talk. Next I’ll try to give you some indication of the principal advances that have been made in our knowledge of the causes of climate change. Most of the talk will focus on discussion of one example of a so-called “fingerprint” study - a statistical comparison of patterns of climate change in observed data and in model predictions. Finally, in my concluding remarks, I’ll point out some of the key uncertainties in this type of work, and tell you why I believe that we all have a stake in advancing the science.
  • In the context of vulnerability, vulnerability is generally higher to extreme events, because we are less adapted to cope with extreme conditions, especially as they move beyond what we have seen previously
  • Expected to be one of the near-term challenges of climate change, since small changes in average conditions can create large changes in the incidence of extremes.
  • 1972 - 2003, NPS, USFS &amp; BIA Fires over 1000 acres
  • Here is an outline of the structure of my talk. First I’ll discuss some of the key findings of a recent Intergovernmental report that investigated the nature and causes of climate change. Then I’ll define some terms that I’ll be using in my talk. Next I’ll try to give you some indication of the principal advances that have been made in our knowledge of the causes of climate change. Most of the talk will focus on discussion of one example of a so-called “fingerprint” study - a statistical comparison of patterns of climate change in observed data and in model predictions. Finally, in my concluding remarks, I’ll point out some of the key uncertainties in this type of work, and tell you why I believe that we all have a stake in advancing the science.
  • Motivating Game Changing Actions In an Era of Spin and Confusion

    1. 1. Stephen H. Schneider * Melvin and Joan Lane Professor for Interdisciplinary Environmental Studies, Professor, Department of Biology Senior Fellow, Woods Institute for the Environment Stanford University Motivating Game Changing Actions In an Era of Spin and Confusion SWISSNEX, Meeting the Energy Challenge Wednesday, March 17, 2010 7:30-8:30pm *[Website for more info: climatechange.net.]
    2. 3. Falsifies Global Warming??
    3. 4. Falsifies Global Warming?? Going to Hell in a Handbasket??
    4. 11. <ul><li>“ Med ia rol ogy ” </li></ul>
    5. 16. Hundreds Gather to Protest Global Warming
    6. 17. Hundreds Gather to Protest Global Warming
    7. 18. Hundreds Gather to Protest Global Warming Non linear “tipping points” matter!
    8. 19. Greenland Ice Melt, 1992 vs. 2002
    9. 21. More snow Fast melting
    10. 24. Moulin Creating a “tipping point”?
    11. 25. Source: Roger Braithwaite, University of Manchester (UK)
    12. 26. Source: Roger Braithwaite, University of Manchester (UK) High tech NASA attempts to discover Greenland tipping point??
    13. 29. Competing Explanations Tipping  Global Warming
    14. 30. Some adaptive capacity Source: MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Climate Change <1°C (4.1%; 1 in 24 odds) 1 to 1.5°C (11.4%; 1 in 9 odds) 1.5 to 2°C (20.6%; 1 in 5 odds) 2 to 2.5°C (22.5%; 1 in 4 odds) 2.5 to 3°C (16.8%; 1 in 6 odds) 3 to 4°C (16.2%; 1 in 6 odds) 4 to 5°C (4.6%; 1 in 22 odds) >5°C (3.8%; 1 in 26 odds)
    15. 31. NASA After Schaer et al., 2004 Switzerland Summer T, 1860-2003 Extreme Events: Heat
    16. 32. IPCC, 2007 Extreme Events: Heat
    17. 33. Wildfires Frequency increased four fold in last 30 years . Source: Westerling et al. 2006 Western US area burned
    18. 34. Extreme Events: Wildfires Late Snowmelt Years Early Snowmelt Years Fewer, smaller fires More, larger fires Westerling
    19. 36. Adaptation??
    20. 37. Adaptation Move up (or polerward); plant (or develop) warmer varieties; or... abandon
    21. 38. Some adaptive capacity Source: MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Climate Change <1°C (4.1%; 1 in 24 odds) 1 to 1.5°C (11.4%; 1 in 9 odds) 1.5 to 2°C (20.6%; 1 in 5 odds) 2 to 2.5°C (22.5%; 1 in 4 odds) 2.5 to 3°C (16.8%; 1 in 6 odds) 3 to 4°C (16.2%; 1 in 6 odds) 4 to 5°C (4.6%; 1 in 22 odds) >5°C (3.8%; 1 in 26 odds) Little adaptive capacity
    22. 40. Need Behavior Change  Need Basic Understanding of Underlying Issues of Risk and Risk Management
    23. 41. Need Behavior Change  Need Basic Understanding of Underlying Issues of Risk and Risk Management
    24. 61. Policy Sequence: 1-Adaptation to change already in the pipeline 2-Performance standards 3-Public private partnerships (incentives to innovation) 4-Shadow price on carbon (polluter pays--with equity side payments) 5-Geoengineering
    25. 62. Policy Sequence: 1-Adaptation to change already in the pipeline 2-Performance standards 3-Public private partnerships (incentives to innovation) 4-Shadow price on carbon (polluter pays--with equity side payments) 5-Geoengineering
    26. 63. Policy Sequence: 1-Adaptation to change already in the pipeline --mitigation for changes beyond what we can adapt to 2-Performance 2-Performance standards 3-Public private partnerships (incentives to innovation) 4-Shadow price on carbon (polluter pays--with equity side payments) 5-Geoengineering
    27. 64. Policy Sequence: 1-Adaptation to change already in the pipeline 2-Performance standards 3-Public private partnerships (incentives to innovation) 4-Shadow price on carbon (polluter pays--with equity side payments) 5-Geoengineering
    28. 65. Source: Rosenfeld 2005
    29. 67. If a KWh is $0.15, then 40,000 GWh hours per year is a savings of about $6 billion per year!
    30. 68. Policy Sequence: 1-Adaptation to change already in the pipeline 2-Performance standards 3-Public private partnerships (incentives to innovation -IT Opportunity ) 4-Shadow price on carbon (polluter pays--with equity side payments) 5-Geoengineering
    31. 69. Methods to achieve announced climate sustainability goals? <ul><li>Volunteerism </li></ul><ul><li>Technology, R,D & D incentives </li></ul>
    32. 70. Methods to achieve announced climate sustainability goals? <ul><li>Volunteerism </li></ul><ul><li>Technology, R,D & D incentives </li></ul>Deployment/demonstration
    33. 74. Out of the box thinking : combined wind, solar thermal with storage, smart grids and uses for “dumped &quot;energy when system overproduces
    34. 75.                                                                                                                                                     
    35. 76. Figure 1. Concept of low-temperature pyrolysis bio-energy with biochar sequestration. Typically, about 50% of the pyrolyzed biomass is converted into biochar and can be returned to soil. Source: Johannes Lehmann, 2007
    36. 77. Policy Sequence: 1-Adaptation to change already in the pipeline 2-Performance standards 3-Public private partnerships (incentives to innovation) 4-Shadow price on carbon (polluter pays--with equity side payments) 5-Geoengineering
    37. 78. Shadow price on carbon (fee for dumping in the atmosphere—polluter pays principle) -Cap and trade -Carbon tax -Revenue recycling for equity side payments?
    38. 79. Shadow price on carbon (fee for dumping in the atmosphere—polluter pays principle) -Cap and trade -Carbon tax -Revenue recycling for equity side payments?
    39. 80. Shadow price on carbon (fee for dumping in the atmosphere—polluter pays principle) -Cap and trade -Carbon tax -Revenue recycling for equity side payments?
    40. 81. Shadow price on carbon (fee for dumping in the atmosphere—polluter pays principle) -Cap and trade -Carbon tax -Revenue recycling for equity side payments?
    41. 82. Policy Sequence: 1-Adaptation to change already in the pipeline 2-Performance standards 3-Public private partnerships (incentives to innovation) 4-Shadow price on carbon (polluter pays--with equity side payments) 5-Geoengineering
    42. 83. Questions??? Comments??

    ×