FuturICT: New Era of Participatory Global Computing

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FuturICT: New Era of Participatory Global Computing

  1. 1. Global Participatory Computing for Our Complex World Dirk Helbing (ETH Zurich) New science and technology to understand and manage our complex world in a more sustainable and resilient way
  2. 2. Big Data = Big Opportunities, also for Science How to turn data into knowledge? §  theoretically informed data-mining §  models to understand
  3. 3. Old Problems: External Threats to Society
  4. 4. Our Thinking Determines What We See …
  5. 5. … And What We Can’t See…! We need to overcome thelimitations of our conventionalthinking!
  6. 6. We Can‘t Anymore Do Business As Usual“Our financial, transportation, healthsystem are broken.”Sandy Pentland, MIT Media Lab “We are seeing an extraordinary failure of our current political and economic system.” Geoffrey West, former president of the Santa Fe Institute
  7. 7. Networking is Good … But Promotes Cascading Effects §  We now have a global exchange of people, money, goods, information, ideas…§  Globalization and technological change have created a strongly coupled and interdependent world Network infrastructures create pathways for disaster spreading! Need adaptive decoupling strategies.
  8. 8. Cascading Effect and Blackout in the European Power Grid Failure in the continental European electricity grid on November 4, 2006 EU project IRRIIS: E. Liuf (2007) Critical Infrastructure protection, R&D view
  9. 9. Collateral Damage1.  Financial crisis: Losses of 2-20 trillion $2.  Conflict: Global military expenditures amount to 1.5 trillion $ annually. 3.  Terrorism: 9/11 attacks caused 90 billion $ lost output of the US economy4.  Crime and corruption: 2-5% of GDP, about 2 trillion $ annually. 5.  Flu: A true influenza pandemic infecting 1% of world population would cause losses of 1-2 trillion $ per annum 6.  Cybercrime: 750 billion EUR/a in Europe
  10. 10. Are Derivatives Financial Weapons of Mass Destruction?Buffett warns on investment time bombDerivatives are financial weapons of mass destruction "Warren Buffett The rapidly growing trade in derivatives poses a "mega-catastrophic risk" for the economy ..., legendary investor Warren Buffett has warned. The worlds second-richest man made the comments in his famous and plain-spoken"annual letter to shareholders", excerpts of which have been published by Fortunemagazine. The derivatives market has exploded in recent years, with investment banks sellingbillions of dollars worth of these investments to clients as a way to off-load or managemarket risk. But Mr Buffett argues that such highly complex financial instruments are time bombsand "financial weapons of mass destruction" that could harm not only their buyersand sellers, but the whole economic system. (BBC, 4 March, 2003)
  11. 11. The Flash Crash on May 6, 2010 600 billion dollars evaporated in 20 minutesThe flash crash turned solid assets into penny stocks within minutes.Was an interaction effect, no criminal act, ‘fat finger’, or error.
  12. 12. Cascading Effects During Financial Crises Video by Frank Schweitzer et al.
  13. 13. Need New Science to Fill Knowledge GapsFor 30 years or so have we globalized ourworld and pushed for technologicalrevolutions, but the global systems scienceto understand the resulting complex systemsis lacking.1.  Science of systemic risks2.  Practically relevant theory of complex systems3.  New data science4.  Integrated systems design to manage complexity5.  Coevolution of ICT with society
  14. 14. We Should Not Trust Our Intuition Geocentric Picture: Epicycles around the Earth Heliocentric Picture: Elliptical paths around the sun
  15. 15. Emergent Phenomena in Pedestrian Crowds At high densities, several people may compete for the same gap and block each other. This constitutes a conflict and causes intermittent outflows and a faster-is-slower effect.At low densities: At largeself-organized lane formation, densities:like Adam Smith’s invisible handcoordination breaks down
  16. 16. Low Predictability Due to the" Sensitivity to Varying Model Parameters 360 340Wet Bench in Semiconductor Production 320 300 280 260 DS 240 220 200 180Chemical Water Chemical Water GC Chemical Water Dryer Park Positions Input, 160 Output 140 120 100 89 180 240 01-DHF critical ontime 01-ST_dhf 380460540620 300 360 420 02-QDR_1 03-SC_1 380460540620 300 360 420 04-QDR_2 06-SC_2 380 460540620 07-QDR_3 510 570 08-DMG Throughput TEST_1 TEST_2 TEST_3 Analyse software 266,8 255,9 246,1 Production machine 150,9 155,5 178,4 Difference in w/h 115,9 100,4 67,7
  17. 17. Paradoxical Slower-Is-Faster Effect in Chip Production Slower-is- faster effectOld recipe: New recipe:ca. 170/h ca. 230/h
  18. 18. As Coupling Gets Stronger, System Behavior Can Change Completely: Traffic Breakdowns Thanks to Yuki Sugiyama Capacity drop, when capacity is most needed! At high densities, free traffic flow is unstable: Despite best efforts, drivers fail to maintain speed
  19. 19. As Coupling Gets Stronger, System Behavior Can Change Completely: Crowd Disasters Love Parade Disaster in Duisburg, 2010At low densities:self-organized lane formation, like Adam Smith’s invisible hand At large densities: coordination breaks down
  20. 20. Hyper-Connected Systems§  Global ICT = most complex artifact§  Billions of interacting components§  Many autonomous decisions §  à Artificial social systems! §  Too much data? §  Too much speed? §  Too much complexity? ICT seems part of the problem, but also key to the solution! Need to understand socially interacting Source: WEF systems!
  21. 21. Too Much Networking Can Cause Self- Destabilization: Breakdown of Cooperation Different recipes, new solutions, and a paradigm shift in our understanding of the world are needed.
  22. 22. Strongly Coupled and Complex System Behave Fundamentally Different1.  Faster dynamics2.  Increased frequency of extreme events – can have any size3.  Self-organization dominates system dynamics4.  Emergent and counterintuitive system behavior, unwanted feedback, cascade and side Change of perspective (from a effects component- to an interaction-5.  Predictability goes down oriented view) will reveal new solutions!6.  External control is difficult 7.  Larger vulnerability Need a science of multi-level complex systems!
  23. 23. Instruments to Explore the WorldConnect web experiments with data mining andmodelling tools to reach an acceleration of knowledgegeneration as in the Human Genome Project Hubble, Nasa
  24. 24. Build platforms to explore & interact What for? Turn knowledge into wisdom People What is? What if? Create systems Data provide data Models Develop models to sense & create new technology to simulate & understand predictTurn data into information Turn information into knowledge
  25. 25. Platforms to explore & interact Global Participatory Platform Innovation Accelerator Planetary Living Systems Nervous provide data Earth Models to sense & System create new technology Simulator to simulate &understand predict
  26. 26. Platforms to explore & interact Global Participatory Platform Innovation Accelerator Planetary Living Systems Nervous provide data Earth Models to sense & System create new technology Simulator to simulate &understand predict
  27. 27. Crowd-Sourcing 3D Environments Thanks toMarcPollefeys See also Open Streetmap - the free Wiki world map
  28. 28. More Sustainability and Resilience through Collective, ICT-Enabled (Self-)Awareness 1.  Goal: Measure the world’s state and ‘social footprint’ in real time, detect possible threats and opportunities 2.  Use smartphones, social media, digital news sources, sensors… 3.  Incentives to provide data 4.  Control over own data 5.  Privacy-respecting data miningRequires a ‘Planetary Nervous System’ Painting by Maurits Cornelis Escherto answer ‘what is’ questions and a Examples: Open streetmap,‘Living Earth Simulator’ to answer earthquake sensing and warning‘what if’ questions.
  29. 29. New Compasses for Decision-Makers Consider social capital: §  Solidarity, cooperativeness, §  compliance, §  reputation, trust, GDP §  attention, curiosity, §  happiness, health, §  environmental care…Goal: Createindices better than GDP/capita, considering health, Green = Happiest Blueenvironment, social Purplewell-being, … Orangeto promote Red = Least Happysustainability Grey = Data not available Happiness
  30. 30. Platforms to explore & interact Global Participatory Platform Innovation Accelerator Planetary Living Systems Nervous provide data Earth Models to sense & System create new technology Simulator to simulate &understand predict
  31. 31. Building FuturICT’s Living Earth Simulator " Analysis of “What if …” Scenarios Data Models Forecasts demographic infection data contact network models transport + = data multi- scale geographic models ...complexity... data agent- based modelsscenario predictions §  Integrate data and modelsanalysis Validation §  Scale them up to global scale §  Make them more accuratepriorities policies (thanks to Alex Vespignani) Possibilities are limited, but even short-term prediction can be useful, as weather forecasts or new traffic light controls show.
  32. 32. Modelling the global spread of H1N1," combining models of epidemiology and global travel data
  33. 33. Building FuturICT’s Living Earth Simulator §  Integrate existing models (traffic, production, economic system, crowd behavior, social cooperation, social norms, social conflict, crime, war…)§  Scale them up to global scale§  Increase degree of detail, accuracy (statistical and sensitivity analysis, calibration, validation, identification of crucial and questionable modeling assumptions,…)
  34. 34. Interactive Virtual Worlds for Exploration Multi-player serious online games " across diverse platforms
  35. 35. Interactive Virtual Worlds as Experimental Testbed For example different financial architectures, voting rules, transparency and privacy settings, etc.
  36. 36. Managing Complexity: Is It a Lost Battle?§  In a strongly varying world, strict stability and control is not possible anymore or excessively expensive §  Example: Public spending deficits§  Hierarchically organized structures have a critical size, beyond which they become unstable§  Examples: Decay of Soviet Union; many failed mergers in the last decade (Daimler-Chrysler, BMW-Rover, Allianz-Dresdner Bank, …) §  A paradigm shift towards flexible, agile, adaptive systems is needed, possible - and overdue! Boeing 747: Constructed for stable flight Su-47: Utilizes dynamic instability
  37. 37. How to Utilize Properties of Complex Systems? Don‘t Fight the System, Go With the Flow!
  38. 38. Managing Complexity: Modifying InteractionsAllows to Promote Favorable Self-Organization
  39. 39. Self-Control of Traffic Lights: Making More Out of Scarce Resources Smarter CitiesInspiration: Self-organizedoscillations at bottlenecksMeasurementinput Optimal compromise between coordination and Licensing Opportunity local flexibility
  40. 40. Avoiding Crowd Disasters Flow Monitoring in 2007 Situation in 2006§  Avoiding crossing and counter-flows§  Real-time flow monitoring Beneficial for all mode§  Adaptive rerouting of transport and for the environment§  Contingency plans October, 3rd, 2011 Resilient Flow Organization in 2007 STS Forum, 8th Annual Meeting, Kyoto 40
  41. 41. Conflict in the Middle East: Possible Future Scenarios ‘Business as Usual’ Clinton Parameters
  42. 42. Social Norms and Conflict People sanction and suppress each other every day to create social order Computer simulations: Population 1 Strength of population 1 sets the norm Red = individuals preferring behavior 1 Everyone tends Yellow = individuals to do what adjusting to behavior 1 he/she likes (anomie) Blue = individuals preferring behavior 2 Population 2 Green = individuals sets the norm adjusting to behavior 2 Reward of showing preferred behavior / Reward of conforming
  43. 43. Platforms to explore & interact Global Participatory Platform Innovation Accelerator Planetary Living Systems Nervous provide data Earth Models to sense & System create new technology Simulator to simulate &understand predict
  44. 44. Big Data = Big Challenges Cybercrime -  Privacy -  Data security 3 workshops on ethics, own research focus.
  45. 45. Surveillance as Go(o)d Solution? “The internet has totalitarian potential.” §  The Internet cannot be controlled top down (we cannot even control the financial system) §  Rather apply principles of decentralized self-regulation (as in our immune system) §  Build on transparency, reputation systems
  46. 46. Are These Really Twitter Revolutions? The Arabic Blogosphere
  47. 47. Political Cascading Effects Transition from hierarchies to democracies (source: Jürgen Mimkes) hierarchy transition democracy W orl d GNP and f ertility G N P pe r p e r s on in US $ 35 .0 00 h iera rc hies 30 .0 00 tran sitio n 25 .0 00 d em oc ra cies 20 .0 00 tran sitio n lin e 15 .0 00 de m o c r ac i es 10 .0 00 5 .0 00 h i e ra r c h i es 0 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 fe rt i li t y f, c h i ld re n p e r w o m e n
  48. 48. Food Prices as Triggers of Social Unrests
  49. 49. An Open, Transparent Platform for Everyone §  Goal: A ‘data and model commons’, an open platform for everyone§  Potentials: New services and jobs, less barriers for social, economic and political participation§  Problem: A new public good, requiring mechanisms to avoid data pollution, manipulation, misuse, privacy intrusion, cybercrime§  How to promote responsible use? §  Need to develop a Trustable Web, a self-regulating information ecosystem
  50. 50. Why Privacy Is ImportantExample: My diary and trust §  Public and private are two sides of the same medal §  Privacy is a pressure relief system that allows people to adapt to expectation of others during public exposure §  Protection of minorities, protection of socio-diversity §  Reduction of conflict §  If there is no protected private space, people will stop thinking independently, which undermines the wisdom of crowdsFree space is needed for §  If there is no privacy, there is noindividuals to recover and for intimacy, i.e. partnerships andsociety to innovate and evolve. friendships as we know them
  51. 51. Computers Thinking for Us: The Filter Bubble Risk of manipulation and Eli over-confidence. Pariser Supporting egocentric consensus may promote segregation and conflict between groups with different preferences. These questions may have fundamental societal implications.They deserve and require scientific study!
  52. 52. Diversity-Preserving Recommender Systems Avoid conformity and herding effects, protect socio-diversity Source: Yi-Cheng Zhang et al. Value sensitive design!
  53. 53. Socio-Inspired ICTUnderstanding the hidden laws and processes of society Development a new wave of robust, trustworthy andadaptive information systems based on socially inspiredparadigms. Facebook is by nowFundamental transformational effect on ICT and one of the mostComputer Science valuable companies in the world 3. Socio-inspired, 1. Collective awareness bottom-up 2. Social adaptiveness self-organization
  54. 54. Coming Era of Socio-Inspired Innovations Understanding socially interactive systems facilitates socio-inspired ICT§  Cooperation, Example: A ‘Trustable Web’,§  adaptability and self-regulation, reputation-based and self-§  conflict resolution, regulating, to keep§  resilience, cybercrime low§  trust, §  reputation, §  social norms, §  values, ethics, and §  cultureEconomic benefits!New solutions to societal problems!
  55. 55. Client Server Systems vs. Peer to Peer Systems Peer-to-Peer Systems Client-Server Systems Source Application example:
  56. 56. The Dilemma of Social Cooperation The prisoners dilemma game has served as prime example of strategic conflict among individuals. It assumes that, when two individuals cooperate, both get the “reward” R, while both receive the “punishment” P< R, if they defect. If one of them cooperates (“C”) and the other one defects (“D”), the cooperator suffers the “sucker’s payoff” S < P, while the payoff T > R for the second individual reflects the “tempation” to defect. Additionally, one typically assumes S+T < 2R. Player 2 For example: Cooperate Defect S = S = S = -5 1 2 Player 1 Cooperate R1 R2 S1 T2 P1 = P2= P = -2 R1 = R2= R = -1 Defect T1 S2 P1 P2 T1 = T2= T = 0 Many social dilemmas are of a similar kind (see public goods game)
  57. 57. Emergence of Cooperation in Social Dilemma Situations Overfishing,global warming,misuse of socialbenefit systems,tax evasion,free-ridingRed, yellow:defectors(cheaters)Blue, green:cooperators Imitation of the best-performing neighbor, success-driven mobility, and trial-and-error together can cause an outbreak of cooperation, but no subset of these social mechanisms
  58. 58. How the Costly Sanctioning of Free-Riders Can Survive " and Moral Behavior Spreads In memoriam of Elinor Ostrom D = Defectors (Free-Riders), M = Moralists, I=Immoralists C = Non-punishing Cooperators (Second-Order Free-Riders)
  59. 59. Social Money Thanks to Frank Schweitzer and Dirk BrockmannTreat money as nodes in a money flow network rather than as a one-dimensional entity (scalar), give it multi-dimensionality, memory, history, reputation.
  60. 60. “Data is the new oil” – Clive Humby … but models are the new gold … and participation means social capital!http://www.photoeverywhere.co.uk/west/usa/california/sunset_oil_rigDSC_4701.jpg
  61. 61. Stop Searching Where the Light Is!
  62. 62. Learn to Keep Many Things Going at the Same Time …
  63. 63. Demonstrating the Need to Overcome the Barriers of Our Conventional Thinking
  64. 64. Thanks for your interest and thanks to our supporters!

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