• Share
  • Email
  • Embed
  • Like
  • Save
  • Private Content
Bitcoin and the Future of Money
 

Bitcoin and the Future of Money

on

  • 1,262 views

Keynote at Islandsbanki Wealth Management's Open Meeting on Cryptocurrencies, April, 2014 (www.vib.is).

Keynote at Islandsbanki Wealth Management's Open Meeting on Cryptocurrencies, April, 2014 (www.vib.is).

Statistics

Views

Total Views
1,262
Views on SlideShare
1,227
Embed Views
35

Actions

Likes
6
Downloads
15
Comments
0

1 Embed 35

https://twitter.com 35

Accessibility

Upload Details

Uploaded via as Adobe PDF

Usage Rights

© All Rights Reserved

Report content

Flagged as inappropriate Flag as inappropriate
Flag as inappropriate

Select your reason for flagging this presentation as inappropriate.

Cancel
  • Full Name Full Name Comment goes here.
    Are you sure you want to
    Your message goes here
    Processing…
Post Comment
Edit your comment

    Bitcoin and the Future of Money Bitcoin and the Future of Money Presentation Transcript

    • Bitcoin and the Future of Money The emergence of the first global, decentralized, digital cryptocurrency Sveinn Valfells, PhD linkd.in/wtaHi5 Islandsbanki Wealth Management (VIB.is) Open Meeting on Cryptocurrencies April 23, 2014 Sveinn Valfells, PhD (linkd.in/wtaHi5) Bitcoin and the Future of Money Islandsbanki Wealth Management (VIB.is) Open Meet / 18
    • Outline 1 Money and Modern Civilisation 2 The Economic Consequences of Bitcoin 3 About the Author Sveinn Valfells, PhD (linkd.in/wtaHi5) Bitcoin and the Future of Money Islandsbanki Wealth Management (VIB.is) Open Meet / 18
    • Money and Modern Civilisation Outline 1 Money and Modern Civilisation 2 The Economic Consequences of Bitcoin 3 About the Author Sveinn Valfells, PhD (linkd.in/wtaHi5) Bitcoin and the Future of Money Islandsbanki Wealth Management (VIB.is) Open Meet / 18
    • Money and Modern Civilisation Money and Modern Civilisation: A Brief History Money serves as store of value, medium of exchange, unit of account “The ascent of money has been essential to the ascent of man” — Niall Ferguson [1] 600 BC – 1971 AD Croesus mints first gold coins around 600 BC in Sardis (Asia Minor). Distinctive colour, easy to work with, useless for tools and weapons. Used by Roman Empire, in Middle Ages, by British Empire and by United States. President Nixon suspends convertibility of USD into Gold, 1971 AD. Fungible, divisible, impossible to counterfeit, supply constrained only by mining. Figure: Croesus and gold coin from Sardis (top); Nixon and USD gold note (bottom). Sveinn Valfells, PhD (linkd.in/wtaHi5) Bitcoin and the Future of Money Islandsbanki Wealth Management (VIB.is) Open Meet / 18
    • Money and Modern Civilisation Fiat (Paper) Money Is A Government Backed IOU Fiat money is not backed by physical commodity “Money is a special kind of IOU that is universally trusted.” — Bank of England [2] Figure: Fiat money is created in transactions between central banks, commercial banks and bank customers [2]. Sveinn Valfells, PhD (linkd.in/wtaHi5) Bitcoin and the Future of Money Islandsbanki Wealth Management (VIB.is) Open Meet / 18
    • Money and Modern Civilisation Great Thinkers Agree on Basic Role of Money Function of money is to store value and transmit between unrelated parties over distance and time Money is a crystal formed of necessity in the course of the exchanges. — Karl Marx [3] The importance of money flows from it being a link between the present and the future. — John M. Keynes [4] The very performance of its central function requires money to be generally acceptable and to pass from hand to hand. As a result, individuals may be led to enter into contracts with persons far removed in space and acquaintance, and a long period may elapse between the issue of a promise and the demand for its fulfilment. — Milton Friedman [5] Sveinn Valfells, PhD (linkd.in/wtaHi5) Bitcoin and the Future of Money Islandsbanki Wealth Management (VIB.is) Open Meet / 18
    • The Economic Consequences of Bitcoin Outline 1 Money and Modern Civilisation 2 The Economic Consequences of Bitcoin 3 About the Author Sveinn Valfells, PhD (linkd.in/wtaHi5) Bitcoin and the Future of Money Islandsbanki Wealth Management (VIB.is) Open Meet / 18
    • The Economic Consequences of Bitcoin Bitcoin Is a Token AND a Network Fungible, divisible, impossible to counterfeit, prescribed supply, tested governance model Figure: Private–public key public used for authentication (top); transactions cleared on a peer-to-peer network (bottom). Figure: The chain of blocks of transactions is updated every 10m [6]. Sveinn Valfells, PhD (linkd.in/wtaHi5) Bitcoin and the Future of Money Islandsbanki Wealth Management (VIB.is) Open Meet / 18
    • The Economic Consequences of Bitcoin Bitcoin Has Large Addressable Markets Bitcoin can serve as store of value, medium of exchange and unit of account “In an extreme case, virtual currencies could have a substitution effect on central bank money if they become widely accepted.” — ECB [7] Global asset classes (value storage) Private investment in gold >$1T [8]. London housing stock >£1T [9]. Global payment streams (value transmission) Growth in global electronic payments ≈7% [10]. Non-bank market share from 6% to 21% during 2009-13 [10]. Global non-bank payments in major economies >$609B (2011) [11]. Global m-payments ≈ $300B (est. 2013) [12]. PayPal 25% YOY increase in payment volume to $180B in 2013 [13]. Sveinn Valfells, PhD (linkd.in/wtaHi5) Bitcoin and the Future of Money Islandsbanki Wealth Management (VIB.is) Open Meet / 18
    • The Economic Consequences of Bitcoin Bitcoin Is Growing Like Bacteria in a Petri-Dish Money will rotate into cryptocurrencies from traditional assets, payment streams [14, 15] Cryptocurrency economics Endstate is one dominant network, 2–3 runners-up. Fast growth (+2σ) Fast rotation into Bitcoin from assets, payments. Steady growth Steady rotation into Bitcoin from assets, payments (expected case). Contraction (−2σ). Bitcoin stagnates, money leaks out. Figure: Growth of Bitcoin market cap modelled as Geometric Brownian motion (µ = 50%, σ = 50%). Sveinn Valfells, PhD (linkd.in/wtaHi5) Bitcoin and the Future of Money Islandsbanki Wealth Management (VIB.is) Open Meet / 18
    • The Economic Consequences of Bitcoin Bitcoin Ecosystem Is Rapidly Evolving Developed countries lead Bitcoin adoption [17, 18, 19] Milestones to date (2009–14): Bitcoin foundation established. >5M downloads of official client. ≈ 3M active hosted wallets. Accepted by ≈ 40,000 merchants. $20B annual transaction volume. $6B annual exchange volume. $100M in venture funding from leading VCs. Ecosystem of exchanges, payment processors, ATMs, payment cards, wallets, miners, vault storage, PtP lending. $6B+ market cap. 50Petahash computing power. Figure: Bitcoin client downloads (per capita) [16]. Sveinn Valfells, PhD (linkd.in/wtaHi5) Bitcoin and the Future of Money Islandsbanki Wealth Management (VIB.is) Open Meet / 18
    • The Economic Consequences of Bitcoin Many Governments Recognize Bitcoin Regulatory framework for cryptocurrencies is falling into place [20, 21] [Virtual currencies] may hold long-term promise, particularly if the innovations promote a faster, more secure and more efficient payment system. — Ben Bernanke, November, 2013 Relevance Regulatory situation US Largest economy Conflicting approach of financial and tax authorities. Bill in Congress to define cryptocurrencies as money. CN 2nd largest economy Credit bubble, FX controls in place, authorities effectively shutting down Bitcoin exchanges. DE Largest EU economy Recognized as “private money”. UK Largest FX/gold markets Same treatment as FX and investment gold. Sveinn Valfells, PhD (linkd.in/wtaHi5) Bitcoin and the Future of Money Islandsbanki Wealth Management (VIB.is) Open Meet / 18
    • The Economic Consequences of Bitcoin Bitcoin Is Not Fully De-Risked Mainstream adoption faces hurdles For Strong brand recognition. 5+ years of development. Diverse community of committed participants. Rapidly growing market cap, turnover. Rapidly growing ecosystem. Regulatory acceptance in many key jurisdictions. Against Consumer adoption still limited. Market cap small, liquidity low. Ecosystem immature. Conflicting regulatory approaches. Concentrated ownership. Potential for market manipulation, collusion. Sveinn Valfells, PhD (linkd.in/wtaHi5) Bitcoin and the Future of Money Islandsbanki Wealth Management (VIB.is) Open Meet / 18
    • The Economic Consequences of Bitcoin Opportunity for Iceland Lies with Consumers, Clearing Digitally advanced nation with abundant energy and substantial tourism [22] Consumer payments GDP per capita: $43K. Internet usage: 91%. E-payments per capita: 328/year. Tourists per capita: 2.0/year. Payment clearing (mining) ≈$600M market, est power requirement 30MW. Computationally intensive, low bandwidth, modest latency, data and human capital requirements. Datacenters with competitive Power Usage Effectiveness. Sveinn Valfells, PhD (linkd.in/wtaHi5) Bitcoin and the Future of Money Islandsbanki Wealth Management (VIB.is) Open Meet / 18
    • The Economic Consequences of Bitcoin Bitcoin Is A Leap In The Ascent of Money Bitcoin pioneers a new category of global, digital, decentralized money Key themes in near- and middle term are: Adoption Bitcoin will continue to gain adoption as (i) a global digital payments network and (ii) an asset class similar to gold. Drivers Potential drivers include international cash remittance, micropayments, global inflation. Price Price will continue to rise if turnover increases faster than supply. Leaders Democratic countries with (relatively) stable, open financial systems will extend regulation to Bitcoin (Brazil, Canada, EU, US). Laggards Autocratic countries with (relatively) vulnerable, closed financial systems may limit or ban use of Bitcoin (China, Russia). Threats A better cryptocurrency; regulatory clampdown across G20; global deflation; market manipulation of BTC price; collusion of key BTC stakeholders. Surprises New usecases, new companies not anticipated to date. Sveinn Valfells, PhD (linkd.in/wtaHi5) Bitcoin and the Future of Money Islandsbanki Wealth Management (VIB.is) Open Meet / 18
    • About the Author Outline 1 Money and Modern Civilisation 2 The Economic Consequences of Bitcoin 3 About the Author Sveinn Valfells, PhD (linkd.in/wtaHi5) Bitcoin and the Future of Money Islandsbanki Wealth Management (VIB.is) Open Meet / 18
    • About the Author About Sveinn Valfells, PhD linkd.in/wtaHi5 Some relevant previous remarks: Bitcoin is potential dynamite waiting to be ignited. — Communication with Teddy Shalon, August, 2011 Bitcoin can easily be projected to rise to $20 – $120 within three years. — Communication with Pamir Gelenbe, January, 2013 We expect Bitcoin clearing [mining] revenues to grow to $600M-$3B within three years [with] energy requirement of 12-70MW. — Communication with Landsvirkjun, August, 2013 [23] MtGox failure is not systemic . . . trend of Bitcoin will continue upwards but will be interspersed with price spikes and corrections. — BBC World News & BBC World Business Edition, February, 2014 Sveinn Valfells, PhD (linkd.in/wtaHi5) Bitcoin and the Future of Money Islandsbanki Wealth Management (VIB.is) Open Meet / 18
    • About the Author References [1] Niall Ferguson. The ascent of money. London: Allen Lane. 2008. [2] Amar Radia Michael McLeay and Ryland Thomas. Money in the modern economy. http://www.bankofengland.co.uk. Quarterly Bulletin, Q1 2014. [3] Karl Marx. Das kapital. Hamburg: Verlag von Otto Meisner. 1867. [4] John Maynard Keynes. The general theory of employment, interest and money. London: Palgrave Macmillan. 1934. [5] Milton Friedman. A program for monetary stability. New York: Fordham University Press. 1960. [6] Scotch Branwell. Assembling the bitcoin block chain. http://bitwriters.blogspot.co.uk/. December 2, 2013. [7] European Central Bank. Virtual Currency Schemes. http://www.ecb.europa.eu. October, 2012. [8] Wikipedia. Gold reserve. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gold_reserve. Retrieved June, 2013. [9] Savills. UK Housing Stock Climbs [to] £5T. http://www.savills.co.uk. February, 2013. [10] CapGemini, Efma, RBS. The 8th Annual World Payments Report 2012. http://www.capgemini.com. October 9, 2012. [11] Global Finance. Payments Volumes Worldwide. http://www.gfmag.com. Based on BIS report published January, 2013. [12] Eileen Yu. Global mobile payment transactions to surpass $235B. http://www.zdnet.com. June 4, 2013. [13] Ed Parry. Financials. https://www.paypal-media.com/about. Retrieved, April 2014. [14] Wikipedia. Network effect. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Network_effect. Retrieved June, 2013. [15] Wikipedia. Geometric Brownian motion. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Geometric_Brownian_motion. Retrieved June, 2013. [16] John Nelson. The united nations of bitcoin. http://uxblog.idvsolutions.com. October 22, 2013. [17] Sourceforge. Bitcoin. http://sourceforge.net. Retrived April, 2014. [18] CoinDesk. State of Bitcoin 2014 . http://www.coindesk.com. February 24, 2014. [19] blockchain.info. Blockchain.info – charts. http://blockchain.info. Retrieved, April 2014. [20] Wikipedia. Legality of Bitcoins by country. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Legality_of_Bitcoins_by_country. Retrieved April, 2014. [21] Stan Higgins. US Congressman to Submit Bitcoin Tax Bill. http://blockchain.info. April 8, 2014. [22] Various sources incl. Central Bank of Iceland, Statistics Iceland. [23] Jon H Egilsson & Sveinn Valfells. Global Payment Processing Using Icelandic Energy Resources. Memorandum for Landsvirkjun. August, 2013. Sveinn Valfells, PhD (linkd.in/wtaHi5) Bitcoin and the Future of Money Islandsbanki Wealth Management (VIB.is) Open Meet / 18