Lukáš Marek - Spatial Clustering and Multivariate Statistics in Analysis of Infectious Diseases

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Lukáš Marek - Spatial Clustering and Multivariate Statistics in Analysis of Infectious Diseases

  1. 1. Spatial Clustering and Multivariate Statistics in Analysis of Infectious Diseases Lukáš MAREK This presentation is co-financed by the European Social Fund and the state budget of the Czech Republic
  2. 2. Why Geographical Information Systems?  Advanced methods for spatial analyses  Spatial statistics  Exploration of spatial pattern  Visualization and presentation for non-geographers (doctors, specialist) 2nd InDOG Doctoral Conference, 14th October - 15th October 2013, Olomouc
  3. 3. Spatial Analyses of Health Data - AOI  Disease mapping    Visual description of spatial variability of the disease incidence Maps of incidence risk, identification of areas with high risk Geographic correlation studies   Analysis of associations among the incidence and environmental factors Analyses of spatial pattern  Exploration of spatial and spatio-temporal patterns in data  Disease clusters, randomness, … 2nd InDOG Doctoral Conference, 14th October - 15th October 2013, Olomouc
  4. 4. Health and Medical Data  require specific procedures because of their confidentiality  management, presentation and operations  aggregated, anonymized or incomplete data sets  usage of suitable analytical procedures, while the uncertainty and the inaccuracy of data characteristics need to be taken into account during the analysis and interpretation of results 2nd InDOG Doctoral Conference, 14th October - 15th October 2013, Olomouc
  5. 5. Data Privacy  Health and medical data = private, confidential and sensitive data  Keeping all available records but prevent their reidentification  Usefulness of the local scale analysis X privacy protection  Unlikely to explore the relations on the individual level (and not necessary)  Availability, accessibility and restrictions 2nd InDOG Doctoral Conference, 14th October - 15th October 2013, Olomouc
  6. 6. Software 2nd InDOG Doctoral Conference, 14th October - 15th October 2013, Olomouc
  7. 7. Objectives  Disease occurence as the event    Spatial evaluation of infectious diseases in Olomouc Region, Czech Republic   Space, time, attributes Spatial (point) pattern Parotitis, Salmonella, Viral intestinal infections Spatial evaluation of Campylobacter infection in the Czech Republic 2nd InDOG Doctoral Conference, 14th October - 15th October 2013, Olomouc
  8. 8. Campylobacteriosis      Campylobacter bacterium (C. jejuni) Frequent Often foodborne Symptom are similar to salmonella Poultry or fresh milk products 2nd InDOG Doctoral Conference, 14th October - 15th October 2013, Olomouc
  9. 9. Data   Collaboration with Regional Public Health Service in Olomouc and the National Institute of Public Health EPIDAT database       Mandatory records about infectious diseases and patients, manually fulfilled Age, Sex, Date, Profession, Place of residence, infection, isolation, … 2008 - 2012 ≈ 100 000 records (weakly) Anonymized Aggregation   Hexagons with the size of average cadastral unit, administrative units EUROSTAT population grid 2nd InDOG Doctoral Conference, 14th October - 15th October 2013, Olomouc
  10. 10. 2nd InDOG Doctoral Conference, 14th October - 15th October 2013, Olomouc
  11. 11. Time 2nd InDOG Doctoral Conference, 14th October - 15th October 2013, Olomouc
  12. 12. Disease mapping 2nd InDOG Doctoral Conference, 14th October - 15th October 2013, Olomouc
  13. 13. 2nd InDOG Doctoral Conference, 14th October - 15th October 2013, Olomouc
  14. 14. 2nd InDOG Doctoral Conference, 14th October - 15th October 2013, Olomouc
  15. 15. Identification of Spatial Processes   Estimation of the nature of phenomenon Plenty of methods    Testing of Complete Spatial Randomness    Global vs. Local Graphical vs. Numerical Or other spatial processes Scale dependency Bayesian modelling 2nd InDOG Doctoral Conference, 14th October - 15th October 2013, Olomouc
  16. 16. Spatial Pattern 2nd InDOG Doctoral Conference, 14th October - 15th October 2013, Olomouc
  17. 17. 2nd InDOG Doctoral Conference, 14th October - 15th October 2013, Olomouc
  18. 18. Local Moran‘s I with EB Rate 2nd InDOG Doctoral Conference, 14th October - 15th October 2013, Olomouc
  19. 19. Multivariate Clustering  Similarity searching in attribute space  Classification of areas with related properties of occuring diseases and their parameters  Classification of similar cases  Without spatial relations 2nd InDOG Doctoral Conference, 14th October - 15th October 2013, Olomouc
  20. 20. 2nd InDOG Doctoral Conference, 14th October - 15th October 2013, Olomouc
  21. 21. 2nd InDOG Doctoral Conference, 14th October - 15th October 2013, Olomouc
  22. 22. Problems / Challenges         Geocoding Aggregation Age / Population standardization Neighbourhood estimation Modifiable areal unit problem Probability distribution of the disease occurrence Underlying processes Under / Overestimation of results leading to misinterpretation 2nd InDOG Doctoral Conference, 14th October - 15th October 2013, Olomouc
  23. 23. Future work    Spatio-temporal analysis (More of) Bayesian modelling and smoothing Multivariate statistics with spatial relations 2nd InDOG Doctoral Conference, 14th October - 15th October 2013, Olomouc
  24. 24. Thank you for your attention 2nd InDOG Doctoral Conference, 14th October - 15th October 2013, Olomouc

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