0
Situation Normal,
Everything Must
     Change
Simon
Wardley
ubuntu
DANGER!
Will Robinson
 DANGER!
Sccott Beale/Laughing Squid : http://www.flickr.com/photos/laughingsquid/
Pain
Pain




       No. Slides
Pain    20 slides




       OK
                    No. Slides
303 slides



            Severe
Pain




            risk of
             harm
       OK
                      No. Slides
photos/videoplacebo/3481780379/
Cloud?
What is
cloud computing?
http://www.flickr.com/photos/fimbrethil/
It’s like
computers on the
  internet, innit.
http://www.flickr.com/photos/radioflyer007/
http://www.flickr.com/photos/radioflyer007/
                                    http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/5/5...
http://ftp.arl.army.mil/ftp/historic-computers/png/brlescII1.png
“Online”

http://ftp.arl.army.mil/ftp/historic-computers/png/brlescII1.png
It’s like
computers on the
  internet, innit.
http://www.flickr.com/photos/rainbowproject/3928445074/
£10,000 please.

http://www.flickr.com/photos/rainbowproject/3928445074/
Image from Oliver Twist
It’s like SaaS or Software as a Service, and
   infrastructure provision and PaaS, that’s
 Platform as a Service and utili...
http://www.flickr.com/photos/mharrsch/160253695/
Cloud = Product

http://www.flickr.com/photos/mharrsch/160253695/
Cloud = Profit

http://www.flickr.com/photos/mharrsch/160253695/
67 definitions
Cloud?
303 slides



            Severe
Pain




            risk of
             harm
       OK
                      No. Slides
1.   On-demand self-service Internet
infrastructure where you pay-as-you-go
     and use only what you need, all
  managed...
2           . Note 1: Cloud computing is still an evolving paradigm. Its definitions, use cases, underlying technologies, i...
Point 1
Cloud computing is
 still an evolving
     paradigm.
We don’t know
      what “cloud” is yet.




http://www.flickr.com/photos/rainbowproject/3928445074/
“The real thing to do today is to capture,
what are the dimensions of the thing that
literally, I will tell you, we’re bet...
We don’t know
       what “cloud” is yet




http://www.flickr.com/photos/rainbowproject/3928445074/
We don’t know
       what “cloud” is yet



                                           but bet your
                      ...
We don’t know
       what “cloud” is yet



                                           but bet your
                      ...
“open up exciting new
     prospects for the
employment of computers in
 ways and on a scale that
 would have seemed pure
...
“The challenge of the
  computer utility”
   Douglas Parkhill
       1966
http://www.flickr.com/photos/radioflyer007/
                                    http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/5/5...
http://ftp.arl.army.mil/ftp/historic-computers/png/brlescII1.png
“Online”

http://ftp.arl.army.mil/ftp/historic-computers/png/brlescII1.png
+44 years
Computer Utility
Cloud Computing
Economics
Economics
What is cloud?
Economics
What is cloud?
  Why now?
Economics
What is cloud?
  Why now?
Benefits & Risks
Economics
What is cloud?
  Why now?
Benefits & Risks
    Myths
Tell me your
                 secrets!




Sccott Beale/Laughing Squid : http://www.flickr.com/photos/laughingsquid/
Ubiquity
Ubiquity




           Certainty
Ubiquity




           TV’s, Phones &
           VCRS




                   Certainty
Ubiquity




           TV’s, Phones &
           VCRS




                   Certainty
Ubiquity




           Innovation
                        Certainty
Ubiquity



           Commodity




             Certainty
Ubiquity




           Innovation of
           early lists, 1980.
                           Certainty
Ubiquity




           Custom built,
           DB Marketing
           Mid 80s
                      Certainty
Ubiquity




            Product
           Early 90s




                       Certainty
Utility Services
Ubiquity

              of Salesforce




                              Certainty
Ubiquity
                                   Utility Services


                                      Commodity

          ...
Ubiquity




           Innovation of Z3, 1941
                           Certainty
Ubiquity




           Custom Built LEO, 1946

                      Certainty
Ubiquity




             Products
           IBM 650, 1954




                           Certainty
Ubiquity



           Commodity
            Hardware




                       Certainty
Utility services
Ubiquity

           of Amazon EC2




                              Certainty
Ubiquity




           Innovation of W. H.
           Wollaston, 1821
                            Certainty
Ubiquity




           Early Products,
           Hippolyte Pixii, 1830s



                      Certainty
Utility Services
Ubiquity

           of the National
                  Grid




                              Certainty
Electricity
                                          Accounts
Ubiquity
                             Infrastructure       ...
Ubiquity




                                       io n
                                  at
                          it...
http://www.flickr.com/photos/privatenobby
http://www.flickr.com/photos/billege
http://www.flickr.com/photos/billege/
Ubiquity

           Demand
           (user competition)




                                Certainty
http://www.flickr.com/photos/privatenobby
http://www.flickr.com/photos/mush2274
http://www.flickr.com/photos/mush2274/
Ubiquity

           Demand
           (user competition)




                                Improvement
                ...
Ubiquity

           Demand
           (user competition)

                                            io n
              ...
Economics
What is cloud?
Ubiquity




           Certainty
Ubiquity




           Certainty
Ubiquity


           Widespread
            (Demand)


                        Feature Complete
                         ...
Ubiquity




           Certainty
Application


Database      Framework       Messaging


           Operating System

             Virtualisation

  CPU   ...
Application


   Framework       Messaging


Operating System

  Virtualisation

    Memory            I/O
Application


   Framework       Messaging


Operating System

  Virtualisation               Infrastructure

    Memory  ...
Application


   Framework       Messaging      Platform


Operating System

  Virtualisation               Infrastructure...
Application                    Software


   Framework       Messaging      Platform


Operating System

  Virtualisation ...
Ubiquity
             Software
                                 ... as a
             Platform            Service
        ...
Economics
What is cloud?
  Why now?
What is
Industrial
Revolution?
It’s like
mechanised
horses, innit.
43 definitions
1. Broad socioeconomic and
technological changes starting
            in the
     early 18th century.
2. Rapid development of
    industry in the
  early 19th century.
No definition
+ 200 years
Cloud? Hang
                               on, let’s look at
                                   Google.




http://www.flic...
Not a thing
Transition
http://www.flickr.com/photos/21734563@N04/2179722280/
Concept
Concept




          Suitability
Concept                 Technology




          Suitability
Attitude




Concept                 Technology




          Suitability
Attitude




Concept
          Industrial      Technology
          Revolution

            Suitability
Industrial
                = Product
     Revolution

http://www.flickr.com/photos/mharrsch/160253695/
Cloud
               = Product
     Computing

http://www.flickr.com/photos/mharrsch/160253695/
Concept
Concept




          Suitability
Concept
                  ?     Technology




          Suitability
Gerald J. Popek
 (1947-2008)
Attitude




Concept
           ?            Technology




          Suitability
Paul Strassmann   http://www.strassmann.com/
Nick Carr
Ubiquity




                        g
                      in ue
                     h l
                   is va
     ...
Payroll
    HR Systems
       CRM
        ERP
 Sales Automation
   Infrastructure
Finance & Accounting
Ubiquity

           HR   Payroll




                Certainty
Ubiquity

                         HR       Payroll




            Why are we spending
           $600M p.a. on customisi...
Gain
   competitive advantage
    by customising your
        payroll system




http://www.flickr.com/photos/rainbowprojec...
Ubiquity




           Way back
           when ...

                 Certainty
Ubiquity
               Now




           Way back
           when ...

                 Certainty
Ubiquity




           Standardised
             Service!




                          Certainty
Ubiquity




           Standardised
             Service!

                          Marketplace




                    ...
Attitude




Concept                 Technology




          Suitability
Ubiquity
             Software
                                 ... as a
             Platform            Service
        ...
Recap
Ubiquity
                                   Utility Services


                                      Commodity

          ...
Demand
Ubiquity

           (user competition)




                                 Improvement
                          ...
Ubiquity


           Widespread
            (Demand)


                        Feature Complete
                         ...
Attitude




Concept                 Technology




          Suitability
Ubiquity
             Software
                                 ... as a
             Platform            Service
        ...
Economics
What is cloud?
  Why now?
Benefits & Risks
Ubiquity
               Early Utility
               Westinghouse,
                  1890s


              Product
       ...
Ubiquity

           Economies of scale
           (volume operations)




                                 Certainty
Ubiquity

           Economies of scale
           (volume operations)

           Focus on core
           (outsource)


...
Ubiquity

           Economies of scale
           (volume operations)

           Focus on core
           (outsource)

 ...
Ubiquity

           Economies of scale
           (volume operations)

           Focus on core
           (outsource)

 ...
The fundamental impulse
                       that sets and keeps the
                       capitalist engine in motion
...
The fundamental impulse
                       that sets and keeps the
                       capitalist engine in motion
...
Creative
                       Destruction

Joseph A. Schumpeter
    (1883 - 1950)
Ubiquity




                             lu e
                           Va
                    in   g
              o   ...
Ubiquity




                             lu e
                           Va
                    in   g
              o   ...
Ubiquity
             Internet
                        Electricity
           Hardware




                          Certa...
Ubiquity
                    Internet
                                Electricity
                Hardware



            ...
Ubiquity
             Software
             Platform


           Infrastructure




                            Certainty
Ubiquity
             Software
             Platform


           Infrastructure




                              Enable
...
Previous
             Time
             (mins)


 New
server     72,000

64 node
           130,000
 cluster
Previous   Cloud
             Time     Time
             (mins)    (mins)


 New
server     72,000       7

64 node
      ...
Theory of Hierarchy
                    Componentisation


Herbert A. Simon
  (1916 - 2001)
Rate of evolution
                     of a system is
                    dependant upon
                    the organisat...
Application
Application


Database   Framework     Messaging
Application


Database      Framework       Messaging


           Operating System

             Virtualisation

  CPU   ...
Application


Database      Framework       Messaging


           Operating System

             Virtualisation

  CPU   ...
Application




        Orders of
        Magnitude

CPU
Ubiquity
             Software
             Platform


           Infrastructure




                            Accelerat...
Henry Maudslay
 (1771 - 1831)
Standards
    Matter
Henry Maudslay
 (1771 - 1831)
Ubiquity




           Innovation
           Flemming Valve, 1904
                        Certainty
Ubiquity




           Products
           Intel 4004,
           2300 Transistors, 1971



                     Certainty
Busicom
Busicom




MCS-4
Busicom




Co-Evolution
               MCS-4
> 1,000,000,000,000,000,000
                                Greater
                              consumption



   1
0.0002c




$700             Reduced cost
                   per unit
“Jevons Paradox”

                    Technological progress
                      that increases the
                   e...
Ubiquity

           Economies of scale
           (volume operations)

           Focus on core
           (outsource)

 ...
Ubiquity


           Accelerated
           Innovation
           (componentisation)




                   Certainty
Ubiquity


           Accelerated
           Innovation
           (componentisation)

           Greater
           consu...
Economics
What is cloud?
  Why now?
Benefits & Risks
Ubiquity



           Disruptive


                         ... as a
                        Product




                ...
Transition
Ubiquity




                        Certainty
Transition
Ubiquity

           Confusion




                        Certainty
Transition
Ubiquity

           Confusion
           Governance




                        Certainty
Transition
Ubiquity

           Confusion
           Governance
           Trust




                        Certainty
Transition
Ubiquity

           Confusion
           Governance
           Trust
           Security




                 ...
Transition
Ubiquity

           Confusion
           Governance
           Trust
           Security
           Transparen...
Outsourcing
Ubiquity




             Certainty
Outsourcing
Ubiquity

           Suitability




              Certainty
Outsourcing
Ubiquity

           Suitability
           Competition




              Certainty
Outsourcing
Ubiquity

           Suitability
           Competition
           Lock-in




              Certainty
Outsourcing
Ubiquity

           Suitability
           Competition
           Lock-in
           Second Source




      ...
Outsourcing
Ubiquity

           Suitability
           Competition
           Lock-in
           Second Source
          ...
Transition     Outsourcing
Ubiquity

           Confusion      Suitability
           Governance     Competition
         ...
You have choice!




http://www.flickr.com/photos/rainbowproject/3928445074/
Ubiquity
             Market




           You




                      Certainty
Ubiquity
             Market


                      Competitive
                         Gap
           You




         ...
Ubiquity
             Market   Pay per use
                      Focus on core
                      Economies of scale
  ...
http://www.flickr.com/photos/privatenobby
http://www.flickr.com/photos/billege
http://www.flickr.com/photos/giddygoose/
“Red Queen Hypothesis”

                  The need to constantly
                  evolve in order to stand
              ...
Ubiquity
             Market




                         re
                     ssu
                 Pre
           You
...
Benefits   vs   Risks
Ubiquity




           Marketplace




              Certainty
Ubiquity

                  Private




           Marketplace




              Certainty
Ubiquity




               Hybrid




           Certainty
Ubiquity




            Transitional Risks
            Security of supply,
           governance, trust ...
             ...
Ubiquity




           Certainty
Only public cloud is
     cloud computing!




http://www.flickr.com/photos/rainbowproject/3928445074/
variety of models



Consumer   Provider
ubuntu
Standards
    Matter
Henry Maudslay
 (1771 - 1831)
Ubiquity




            Transitional Risks
            Security of supply,
           governance, trust ...
             ...
Public cloud

Amazon EC2


               Ubuntu on EC2

                 (April’09)
Private cloud
Ubuntu Enterprise
     Cloud          Eucalyptus       VM

                     Web UI       KVM Hyp.

   (A...
Public cloud     Private cloud

Amazon EC2     Eucalyptus       VM

                Web UI       KVM Hyp.

               ...
Public cloud                Private cloud

Amazon EC2                Eucalyptus       VM

                           Web U...
> 10,000
private clouds
based on UEC
We inserted the Ubuntu
Server CD, selected Ubuntu
   Enterprise Cloud, and
   drank energy drinks.
ubuntu.com/cloud
Recap
Ubiquity
                                   Utility Services


                                      Commodity

          ...
Ubiquity
             Software
                                 ... as a
             Platform            Service
        ...
Attitude




Concept                 Technology




          Suitability
Ubiquity

           Economies of scale
           (volume operations)

           Focus on core
           (outsource)

 ...
Ubiquity




           Disruptive
                         ... as a
                        Product




                 ...
Ubiquity
             Market




                         re
                     ssu
                 Pre
           You
...
Knitted by
                                               Nana’s.




http://www.flickr.com/photos/21734563@N04/2179722280/
Benefits   vs   Risks
Ubiquity




            Transitional Risks
            Security of supply,
           governance, trust ...
             ...
Public cloud                Private cloud

Amazon EC2                Eucalyptus       VM

                           Web U...
Economics
What is cloud?
  Why now?
Benefits & Risks
    Myths
Only public cloud is
     cloud computing!




http://www.flickr.com/photos/rainbowproject/3928445074/
Only public cloud is
     cloud computing!




                                          You have choice!




http://www.fl...
Only public cloud is
     cloud computing!




                                          You have choice!
Standards don’t ...
Cloud is Green.




                                        It’ll reduce your
                                            ...
Ubiquity
                         Software
                         Platform


                       Infrastructure




 ...
Ubiquity
                         Software
                         Platform


                       Infrastructure   Acc...
efficiency
consumption


efficiency
It’s an Innovation




      Oh, Yes it is.


http://www.flickr.com/photos/rainbowproject/3928445074/
Ubiquity




           Standardised
             Service!

                          Marketplace




                    ...
Innovation = Profit


http://www.flickr.com/photos/mharrsch/160253695/
Ubiquity



                                   Profit!



                        Branding


           Innovation
        ...
Ubiquity
                 Market

                             Profit!




           You

                          Certai...
Ubiquity



                                       Profit!




           Why are we spending so
           much on stuff t...
All IT is the same!




http://www.flickr.com/photos/rainbowproject/3928445074/
Ubiquity




               IT

           Certainty
Ubiquity




           Certainty
Ubiquity

           Infrastructure




                Certainty
Ubiquity

                          Infrastructure




            Collective    Accelerates
           Intelligence


   ...
Ubiquity


               provided as ..



           built on ...
                          Certainty
One size fits all




http://www.flickr.com/photos/rainbowproject/3928445074/
Ubiquity




           Certainty
Ubiquity




           Dynamic




                     Certainty
Ubiquity




           Dynamic
           Uncertain




                       Certainty
Ubiquity




           Dynamic
           Uncertain
           Deviation



                       Certainty
Ubiquity




           Dynamic
           Uncertain
           Deviation
           Differential


                      ...
Ubiquity




           Dynamic
           Uncertain
           Deviation
           Differential
           Worth
       ...
Ubiquity




           Certainty
Ubiquity
           Static




                    Certainty
Ubiquity
           Static
           Defined




                    Certainty
Ubiquity
           Static
           Defined
           No Deviation




                          Certainty
Ubiquity
           Static
           Defined
           No Deviation
           Standard




                          Cer...
Ubiquity
           Static
           Defined
           No Deviation
           Standard
           Cost




             ...
Ubiquity




             Different
           Characteristics

                       Certainty
Ubiquity
                  Utility Services
                     of Salesforce



                                90’s Ear...
Ubiquity




                No
           Magic Bullets

                      Certainty
Ubiquity




                   Six Sigma


           Agile

                       Certainty
Ubiquity




           Six Sigma
                Certainty
Ubiquity




           Six Sigma
                Certainty
Ubiquity




           Six Sigma
                Certainty
The fundamental impulse
                       that sets and keeps the
                       capitalist engine in motion
...
Ubiquity




           Agile
              Certainty
Ubiquity




           Agile
              Certainty
Ubiquity




           Agile
              Certainty
Ubiquity
             Market




                         re
                     ssu
                 Pre
           You
...
Ubiquity


                                 Competitive
                                  Efficiency
                      ...
Innovation Paradox
   Survival today requires ‘coherence,
      coordination and stability’.
    Survival tomorrow require...
Ubiquity
             Software
             Platform


           Infrastructure




                            Accelerat...
Summary
Ubiquity
             Software
                                 ... as a
             Platform            Service
        ...
Ubiquity




           Disruptive
                         ... as a
                        Product




                 ...
variety of models



Consumer   Provider
Public cloud                  Private cloud

Amazon EC2                 Eucalyptus        VM

                            ...
All IT is the                SLAs are
                                        same!                   what count!
        ...
Ubiquity
             Market




                         re
                     ssu
                 Pre
           You
...
Henry Maudslay
 (1771 - 1831)
consumption


efficiency
Ubiquity




               IT

           Certainty
Ubiquity


                                 Competitive
                                  Efficiency
                      ...
Attitude




Concept                 Technology




          Suitability
“The challenge of the
  computer utility”
   Douglas Parkhill
       1966
Innovation = Profit


http://www.flickr.com/photos/mharrsch/160253695/
Why?
We don’t know
       what “cloud” is yet



                                          but bet your
                       ...
http://www.flickr.com/photos/8078381@N03/3979391704/
ubuntu.com/cloud
   @swardley
Change
Electricity
                                          Accounts
Ubiquity
                             Infrastructure       ...
Electricity
                                          Accounts
Ubiquity
                             Infrastructure       ...
Lifecycle
#




    Lifecycle
#




    Lifecycle
Electricity
#

    Accounts
    Infrastructure
    Payroll
    CRM
    HR systems
    ERP




                     Lifecyc...
Linear
#

    Procedural
    Predictable
    Outsourcing




                  Lifecycle
#
    Chaotic
    Emergant
    Gamble
    Collaboration




                    Lifecycle
http://www.flickr.com/photos/fatdeeman/2879894647
Linear
                          Procedural
                          Predictable
                          Outsourcing


...
?
http://www.flickr.com/photos/fatdeeman/2879894647
http://www.flickr.com/photos/privatenobby
One size fits all




http://www.flickr.com/photos/rainbowproject/3928445074/
Ubiquity

                         HR       Payroll




            Why are we spending
           $600M p.a. on customisi...
Ubiquity




           Six Sigma
                Certainty
Ubiquity
             Software
             Platform


           Infrastructure




                            Accelerat...
Situation normal,
everything must
     change
Situation Normal, FOWA Dublin
Situation Normal, FOWA Dublin
Situation Normal, FOWA Dublin
Situation Normal, FOWA Dublin
Situation Normal, FOWA Dublin
Situation Normal, FOWA Dublin
Situation Normal, FOWA Dublin
Situation Normal, FOWA Dublin
Situation Normal, FOWA Dublin
Situation Normal, FOWA Dublin
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Situation Normal, FOWA Dublin

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General introduction into the subject of cloud & commoditistion from FOWA Dublin.

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Transcript of "Situation Normal, FOWA Dublin"

  1. 1. Situation Normal, Everything Must Change
  2. 2. Simon Wardley
  3. 3. ubuntu
  4. 4. DANGER! Will Robinson DANGER!
  5. 5. Sccott Beale/Laughing Squid : http://www.flickr.com/photos/laughingsquid/
  6. 6. Pain
  7. 7. Pain No. Slides
  8. 8. Pain 20 slides OK No. Slides
  9. 9. 303 slides Severe Pain risk of harm OK No. Slides
  10. 10. photos/videoplacebo/3481780379/
  11. 11. Cloud?
  12. 12. What is cloud computing?
  13. 13. http://www.flickr.com/photos/fimbrethil/
  14. 14. It’s like computers on the internet, innit.
  15. 15. http://www.flickr.com/photos/radioflyer007/
  16. 16. http://www.flickr.com/photos/radioflyer007/ http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/5/51/Metropolis.jpg
  17. 17. http://ftp.arl.army.mil/ftp/historic-computers/png/brlescII1.png
  18. 18. “Online” http://ftp.arl.army.mil/ftp/historic-computers/png/brlescII1.png
  19. 19. It’s like computers on the internet, innit.
  20. 20. http://www.flickr.com/photos/rainbowproject/3928445074/
  21. 21. £10,000 please. http://www.flickr.com/photos/rainbowproject/3928445074/
  22. 22. Image from Oliver Twist
  23. 23. It’s like SaaS or Software as a Service, and infrastructure provision and PaaS, that’s Platform as a Service and utility computing being provided in public clouds, which is different from private clouds which aren’t cloud computing, unless of course you’re talking about hybrid clouds which sort of are and it’s hype and lock-in and did I mention infrastructure?
  24. 24. http://www.flickr.com/photos/mharrsch/160253695/
  25. 25. Cloud = Product http://www.flickr.com/photos/mharrsch/160253695/
  26. 26. Cloud = Profit http://www.flickr.com/photos/mharrsch/160253695/
  27. 27. 67 definitions
  28. 28. Cloud?
  29. 29. 303 slides Severe Pain risk of harm OK No. Slides
  30. 30. 1. On-demand self-service Internet infrastructure where you pay-as-you-go and use only what you need, all managed by a browser, application or API. Cloud computing is broken up into multiple segments including: Cloud Infrastructure, Cloud Platforms and Cloud Applications. (see "Cloud Pyramid")
  31. 31. 2 . Note 1: Cloud computing is still an evolving paradigm. Its definitions, use cases, underlying technologies, issues, risks, and benefits will be refined in a spirited debate by the public and private sectors. These definitions, attributes, and characteristics will evolve and change over time. Note 2: The cloud computing industry represents a large ecosystem of many models, vendors, and market niches. This definition attempts to encompass all of the various cloud approaches. Definition of Cloud Computing: Cloud computing is a model for enabling convenient, on-demand network access to a shared pool of configurable computing resources (e.g., networks, servers, storage, applications, and services) that can be rapidly provisioned and released with minimal management effort or service provider interaction. This cloud model promotes availability and is composed of five essential characteristics, three service models, and four deployment models. Essential Characteristics: On-demand self-service. A consumer can unilaterally provision computing capabilities, such as server time and network storage, as needed automatically without requiring human interaction with each service’s provider. Broad network access. Capabilities are available over the network and accessed through standard mechanisms that promote use by heterogeneous thin or thick client platforms (e.g., mobile phones, laptops, and PDAs). Resource pooling. The provider’s computing resources are pooled to serve multiple consumers using a multi-tenant model, with different physical and virtual resources dynamically assigned and reassigned according to consumer demand. There is a sense of location independence in that the customer generally has no control or knowledge over the exact location of the provided resources but may be able to specify location at a higher level of abstraction (e.g., country, state, or datacenter). Examples of resources include storage, processing, memory, network bandwidth, and virtual machines. Rapid elasticity. Capabilities can be rapidly and elastically provisioned, in some cases automatically, to quickly scale out and rapidly released to quickly scale in. To the consumer, the capabilities available for provisioning often appear to be unlimited and can be purchased in any quantity at any time. Measured Service. Cloud systems automatically control and optimize resource use by leveraging a metering capability at some level of abstraction appropriate to the type of service (e.g., storage, processing, bandwidth, and active user accounts). Resource usage can be monitored, controlled, and reported providing transparency for both the provider and consumer of the utilized service. Service Models: Cloud Software as a Service (SaaS). The capability provided to the consumer is to use the provider’s applications running on a cloud infrastructure. The applications are accessible from various client devices through a thin client interface such as a web browser (e.g., web-based email). The consumer does not manage or control the underlying cloud infrastructure including network, servers, operating systems, storage, or even individual application capabilities, with the possible exception of limited user-specific application configuration settings. Cloud Platform as a Service (PaaS). The capability provided to the consumer is to deploy onto the cloud infrastructure consumer-created or acquired applications created using programming languages and tools supported by the provider. The consumer does not manage or control the underlying cloud infrastructure including network, servers, operating systems, or storage, but has control over the deployed applications and possibly application hosting environment configurations. Cloud Infrastructure as a Service (IaaS). The capability provided to the consumer is to provision processing, storage, networks, and other fundamental computing resources where the consumer is able to deploy and run arbitrary software, which can include operating systems and applications. The consumer does not manage or control the underlying cloud infrastructure but has control over operating systems, storage, deployed applications, and possibly limited control of select networking components (e.g., host firewalls). Deployment Models: Private cloud. The cloud infrastructure is operated solely for an organization. It may be managed by the organization or a third party and may exist on premise or off premise. Community cloud. The cloud infrastructure is shared by several organizations and supports a specific community that has shared concerns (e.g., mission, security requirements, policy, and compliance considerations). It may be managed by the organizations or a third party and may exist on premise or off premise. Public cloud. The cloud infrastructure is made available to the general public or a large industry group and is owned by an organization selling cloud services. Hybrid cloud. The cloud infrastructure is a composition of two or more clouds (private, community, or public) that remain unique entities but are bound together by standardized or proprietary technology that enables data and application portability (e.g., cloud bursting for load-balancing between clouds).Note: Cloud software takes full advantage of the cloud paradigm by being service oriented with a focus on statelessness, low coupling, modularity, and semantic interoperability.
  32. 32. Point 1 Cloud computing is still an evolving paradigm.
  33. 33. We don’t know what “cloud” is yet. http://www.flickr.com/photos/rainbowproject/3928445074/
  34. 34. “The real thing to do today is to capture, what are the dimensions of the thing that literally, I will tell you, we’re betting our company on, and I think pretty much everybody in the technology industry is betting their companies on” Microsoft CEO, Steve Ballmer
  35. 35. We don’t know what “cloud” is yet http://www.flickr.com/photos/rainbowproject/3928445074/
  36. 36. We don’t know what “cloud” is yet but bet your company on it http://www.flickr.com/photos/rainbowproject/3928445074/
  37. 37. We don’t know what “cloud” is yet but bet your company on it everybody else is. http://www.flickr.com/photos/rainbowproject/3928445074/
  38. 38. “open up exciting new prospects for the employment of computers in ways and on a scale that would have seemed pure fantasy only five year ago”
  39. 39. “The challenge of the computer utility” Douglas Parkhill 1966
  40. 40. http://www.flickr.com/photos/radioflyer007/ http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/5/51/Metropolis.jpg
  41. 41. http://ftp.arl.army.mil/ftp/historic-computers/png/brlescII1.png
  42. 42. “Online” http://ftp.arl.army.mil/ftp/historic-computers/png/brlescII1.png
  43. 43. +44 years
  44. 44. Computer Utility Cloud Computing
  45. 45. Economics
  46. 46. Economics What is cloud?
  47. 47. Economics What is cloud? Why now?
  48. 48. Economics What is cloud? Why now? Benefits & Risks
  49. 49. Economics What is cloud? Why now? Benefits & Risks Myths
  50. 50. Tell me your secrets! Sccott Beale/Laughing Squid : http://www.flickr.com/photos/laughingsquid/
  51. 51. Ubiquity
  52. 52. Ubiquity Certainty
  53. 53. Ubiquity TV’s, Phones & VCRS Certainty
  54. 54. Ubiquity TV’s, Phones & VCRS Certainty
  55. 55. Ubiquity Innovation Certainty
  56. 56. Ubiquity Commodity Certainty
  57. 57. Ubiquity Innovation of early lists, 1980. Certainty
  58. 58. Ubiquity Custom built, DB Marketing Mid 80s Certainty
  59. 59. Ubiquity Product Early 90s Certainty
  60. 60. Utility Services Ubiquity of Salesforce Certainty
  61. 61. Ubiquity Utility Services Commodity Product Custom built Innovation Certainty
  62. 62. Ubiquity Innovation of Z3, 1941 Certainty
  63. 63. Ubiquity Custom Built LEO, 1946 Certainty
  64. 64. Ubiquity Products IBM 650, 1954 Certainty
  65. 65. Ubiquity Commodity Hardware Certainty
  66. 66. Utility services Ubiquity of Amazon EC2 Certainty
  67. 67. Ubiquity Innovation of W. H. Wollaston, 1821 Certainty
  68. 68. Ubiquity Early Products, Hippolyte Pixii, 1830s Certainty
  69. 69. Utility Services Ubiquity of the National Grid Certainty
  70. 70. Electricity Accounts Ubiquity Infrastructure Payroll CRM HR systems ERP Web Portal Search Engines Enterprise 2.0 Information market VRM Certainty
  71. 71. Ubiquity io n at it is o d m m Co Certainty
  72. 72. http://www.flickr.com/photos/privatenobby
  73. 73. http://www.flickr.com/photos/billege
  74. 74. http://www.flickr.com/photos/billege/
  75. 75. Ubiquity Demand (user competition) Certainty
  76. 76. http://www.flickr.com/photos/privatenobby
  77. 77. http://www.flickr.com/photos/mush2274
  78. 78. http://www.flickr.com/photos/mush2274/
  79. 79. Ubiquity Demand (user competition) Improvement (supply competition) Certainty
  80. 80. Ubiquity Demand (user competition) io n at it is o d m m C o Improvement (supply competition) Certainty
  81. 81. Economics What is cloud?
  82. 82. Ubiquity Certainty
  83. 83. Ubiquity Certainty
  84. 84. Ubiquity Widespread (Demand) Feature Complete (Improvement) Certainty
  85. 85. Ubiquity Certainty
  86. 86. Application Database Framework Messaging Operating System Virtualisation CPU Memory I/O
  87. 87. Application Framework Messaging Operating System Virtualisation Memory I/O
  88. 88. Application Framework Messaging Operating System Virtualisation Infrastructure Memory I/O
  89. 89. Application Framework Messaging Platform Operating System Virtualisation Infrastructure Memory I/O
  90. 90. Application Software Framework Messaging Platform Operating System Virtualisation Infrastructure Memory I/O
  91. 91. Ubiquity Software ... as a Platform Service Infrastructure ... as a Product Certainty
  92. 92. Economics What is cloud? Why now?
  93. 93. What is Industrial Revolution?
  94. 94. It’s like mechanised horses, innit.
  95. 95. 43 definitions
  96. 96. 1. Broad socioeconomic and technological changes starting in the early 18th century.
  97. 97. 2. Rapid development of industry in the early 19th century.
  98. 98. No definition
  99. 99. + 200 years
  100. 100. Cloud? Hang on, let’s look at Google. http://www.flickr.com/photos/radioflyer007/ http://petjunction.blogspot.com/2007/07/adorables.html
  101. 101. Not a thing
  102. 102. Transition
  103. 103. http://www.flickr.com/photos/21734563@N04/2179722280/
  104. 104. Concept
  105. 105. Concept Suitability
  106. 106. Concept Technology Suitability
  107. 107. Attitude Concept Technology Suitability
  108. 108. Attitude Concept Industrial Technology Revolution Suitability
  109. 109. Industrial = Product Revolution http://www.flickr.com/photos/mharrsch/160253695/
  110. 110. Cloud = Product Computing http://www.flickr.com/photos/mharrsch/160253695/
  111. 111. Concept
  112. 112. Concept Suitability
  113. 113. Concept ? Technology Suitability
  114. 114. Gerald J. Popek (1947-2008)
  115. 115. Attitude Concept ? Technology Suitability
  116. 116. Paul Strassmann http://www.strassmann.com/
  117. 117. Nick Carr
  118. 118. Ubiquity g in ue h l is va in c im gi D e ra t st Certainty
  119. 119. Payroll HR Systems CRM ERP Sales Automation Infrastructure Finance & Accounting
  120. 120. Ubiquity HR Payroll Certainty
  121. 121. Ubiquity HR Payroll Why are we spending $600M p.a. on customising stuff has no strategic value? Certainty
  122. 122. Gain competitive advantage by customising your payroll system http://www.flickr.com/photos/rainbowproject/3928445074/
  123. 123. Ubiquity Way back when ... Certainty
  124. 124. Ubiquity Now Way back when ... Certainty
  125. 125. Ubiquity Standardised Service! Certainty
  126. 126. Ubiquity Standardised Service! Marketplace Certainty
  127. 127. Attitude Concept Technology Suitability
  128. 128. Ubiquity Software ... as a Platform Service Infrastructure ... as a Product Certainty
  129. 129. Recap
  130. 130. Ubiquity Utility Services Commodity Product Custom built Innovation Certainty
  131. 131. Demand Ubiquity (user competition) Improvement (supply competition) Certainty
  132. 132. Ubiquity Widespread (Demand) Feature Complete (Improvement) Certainty
  133. 133. Attitude Concept Technology Suitability
  134. 134. Ubiquity Software ... as a Platform Service Infrastructure ... as a Product Certainty
  135. 135. Economics What is cloud? Why now? Benefits & Risks
  136. 136. Ubiquity Early Utility Westinghouse, 1890s Product Hippolyte Pixii, 1830s Certainty
  137. 137. Ubiquity Economies of scale (volume operations) Certainty
  138. 138. Ubiquity Economies of scale (volume operations) Focus on core (outsource) Certainty
  139. 139. Ubiquity Economies of scale (volume operations) Focus on core (outsource) Pay per use (utility) Certainty
  140. 140. Ubiquity Economies of scale (volume operations) Focus on core (outsource) Pay per use (utility) Speed (Self Service) Certainty
  141. 141. The fundamental impulse that sets and keeps the capitalist engine in motion comes from the new consumers, goods, the new methods of production or transportation, the new markets, the new forms of industrial organization that capitalist enterprise creates. Joseph A. Schumpeter (1883 - 1950)
  142. 142. The fundamental impulse that sets and keeps the capitalist engine in motion comes from the new consumers, goods, the new methods of production or transportation, the new markets, the new forms of industrial organization that capitalist enterprise creates. Joseph A. Schumpeter (1883 - 1950)
  143. 143. Creative Destruction Joseph A. Schumpeter (1883 - 1950)
  144. 144. Ubiquity lu e Va in g o d E r Certainty
  145. 145. Ubiquity lu e Va in g o d E r Enables Innovation Certainty
  146. 146. Ubiquity Internet Electricity Hardware Certainty
  147. 147. Ubiquity Internet Electricity Hardware Enable Innovation Search Certainty
  148. 148. Ubiquity Software Platform Infrastructure Certainty
  149. 149. Ubiquity Software Platform Infrastructure Enable Innovation Certainty
  150. 150. Previous Time (mins) New server 72,000 64 node 130,000 cluster
  151. 151. Previous Cloud Time Time (mins) (mins) New server 72,000 7 64 node 130,000 15 cluster
  152. 152. Theory of Hierarchy Componentisation Herbert A. Simon (1916 - 2001)
  153. 153. Rate of evolution of a system is dependant upon the organisation of its subsystems. Herbert A. Simon (1916 - 2001)
  154. 154. Application
  155. 155. Application Database Framework Messaging
  156. 156. Application Database Framework Messaging Operating System Virtualisation CPU Memory I/O
  157. 157. Application Database Framework Messaging Operating System Virtualisation CPU Memory I/O
  158. 158. Application Orders of Magnitude CPU
  159. 159. Ubiquity Software Platform Infrastructure Accelerated Innovation Certainty
  160. 160. Henry Maudslay (1771 - 1831)
  161. 161. Standards Matter Henry Maudslay (1771 - 1831)
  162. 162. Ubiquity Innovation Flemming Valve, 1904 Certainty
  163. 163. Ubiquity Products Intel 4004, 2300 Transistors, 1971 Certainty
  164. 164. Busicom
  165. 165. Busicom MCS-4
  166. 166. Busicom Co-Evolution MCS-4
  167. 167. > 1,000,000,000,000,000,000 Greater consumption 1
  168. 168. 0.0002c $700 Reduced cost per unit
  169. 169. “Jevons Paradox” Technological progress that increases the efficiency with which a resource is used, tends to increase the rate of consumption of that resource. William Stanley Jevons, 1865
  170. 170. Ubiquity Economies of scale (volume operations) Focus on core (outsource) Pay per use (utility) Speed (Self Service) Certainty
  171. 171. Ubiquity Accelerated Innovation (componentisation) Certainty
  172. 172. Ubiquity Accelerated Innovation (componentisation) Greater consumption (componentisation, co- evolution, price elasticity) Certainty
  173. 173. Economics What is cloud? Why now? Benefits & Risks
  174. 174. Ubiquity Disruptive ... as a Product Certainty
  175. 175. Transition Ubiquity Certainty
  176. 176. Transition Ubiquity Confusion Certainty
  177. 177. Transition Ubiquity Confusion Governance Certainty
  178. 178. Transition Ubiquity Confusion Governance Trust Certainty
  179. 179. Transition Ubiquity Confusion Governance Trust Security Certainty
  180. 180. Transition Ubiquity Confusion Governance Trust Security Transparency Certainty
  181. 181. Outsourcing Ubiquity Certainty
  182. 182. Outsourcing Ubiquity Suitability Certainty
  183. 183. Outsourcing Ubiquity Suitability Competition Certainty
  184. 184. Outsourcing Ubiquity Suitability Competition Lock-in Certainty
  185. 185. Outsourcing Ubiquity Suitability Competition Lock-in Second Source Certainty
  186. 186. Outsourcing Ubiquity Suitability Competition Lock-in Second Source Control Certainty
  187. 187. Transition Outsourcing Ubiquity Confusion Suitability Governance Competition Trust Lock-in Security Second Source Transparency Control Certainty
  188. 188. You have choice! http://www.flickr.com/photos/rainbowproject/3928445074/
  189. 189. Ubiquity Market You Certainty
  190. 190. Ubiquity Market Competitive Gap You Certainty
  191. 191. Ubiquity Market Pay per use Focus on core Economies of scale Speed to market Accelerated innovation You Reduced cost Certainty
  192. 192. http://www.flickr.com/photos/privatenobby
  193. 193. http://www.flickr.com/photos/billege
  194. 194. http://www.flickr.com/photos/giddygoose/
  195. 195. “Red Queen Hypothesis” The need to constantly evolve in order to stand still relative to a surrounding ecosystem Prof. Van Valen
  196. 196. Ubiquity Market re ssu Pre You Prof. Van Valen “Red Queen Hypothesis” Certainty
  197. 197. Benefits vs Risks
  198. 198. Ubiquity Marketplace Certainty
  199. 199. Ubiquity Private Marketplace Certainty
  200. 200. Ubiquity Hybrid Certainty
  201. 201. Ubiquity Transitional Risks Security of supply, governance, trust ... Hybrid Certainty
  202. 202. Ubiquity Certainty
  203. 203. Only public cloud is cloud computing! http://www.flickr.com/photos/rainbowproject/3928445074/
  204. 204. variety of models Consumer Provider
  205. 205. ubuntu
  206. 206. Standards Matter Henry Maudslay (1771 - 1831)
  207. 207. Ubiquity Transitional Risks Security of supply, governance, trust ... Hybrid Certainty
  208. 208. Public cloud Amazon EC2 Ubuntu on EC2 (April’09)
  209. 209. Private cloud Ubuntu Enterprise Cloud Eucalyptus VM Web UI KVM Hyp. (April ’09) Cloud Node Controller Controller Ubuntu Server Edition Physical (bare bones)
  210. 210. Public cloud Private cloud Amazon EC2 Eucalyptus VM Web UI KVM Hyp. Cloud Node Controller Controller Ubuntu Server Edition Physical (bare bones)
  211. 211. Public cloud Private cloud Amazon EC2 Eucalyptus VM Web UI KVM Hyp. Cloud Node Controller Controller EC2 & S3 API Ubuntu Server Edition Physical (bare bones)
  212. 212. > 10,000 private clouds based on UEC
  213. 213. We inserted the Ubuntu Server CD, selected Ubuntu Enterprise Cloud, and drank energy drinks.
  214. 214. ubuntu.com/cloud
  215. 215. Recap
  216. 216. Ubiquity Utility Services Commodity Product Custom built Innovation Certainty
  217. 217. Ubiquity Software ... as a Platform Service Infrastructure ... as a Product Certainty
  218. 218. Attitude Concept Technology Suitability
  219. 219. Ubiquity Economies of scale (volume operations) Focus on core (outsource) Pay per use (utility) Speed (Self Service) Certainty
  220. 220. Ubiquity Disruptive ... as a Product Certainty
  221. 221. Ubiquity Market re ssu Pre You Prof. Van Valen “Red Queen Hypothesis” Certainty
  222. 222. Knitted by Nana’s. http://www.flickr.com/photos/21734563@N04/2179722280/
  223. 223. Benefits vs Risks
  224. 224. Ubiquity Transitional Risks Security of supply, governance, trust ... Hybrid Certainty
  225. 225. Public cloud Private cloud Amazon EC2 Eucalyptus VM Web UI KVM Hyp. Cloud Node Controller Controller EC2 & S3 API Ubuntu Server Edition Physical (bare bones)
  226. 226. Economics What is cloud? Why now? Benefits & Risks Myths
  227. 227. Only public cloud is cloud computing! http://www.flickr.com/photos/rainbowproject/3928445074/
  228. 228. Only public cloud is cloud computing! You have choice! http://www.flickr.com/photos/rainbowproject/3928445074/
  229. 229. Only public cloud is cloud computing! You have choice! Standards don’t matter http://www.flickr.com/photos/rainbowproject/3928445074/
  230. 230. Cloud is Green. It’ll reduce your IT spend. http://www.flickr.com/photos/rainbowproject/3928445074/
  231. 231. Ubiquity Software Platform Infrastructure Pay per use (utility) Economies of scale (volume operations) Certainty
  232. 232. Ubiquity Software Platform Infrastructure Accelerated Innovation (componentisation) Pay per use (utility) Greater consumption Economies of scale (componentisation, co- (volume operations) evolution, Jevons paradox) Certainty
  233. 233. efficiency
  234. 234. consumption efficiency
  235. 235. It’s an Innovation Oh, Yes it is. http://www.flickr.com/photos/rainbowproject/3928445074/
  236. 236. Ubiquity Standardised Service! Marketplace Certainty
  237. 237. Innovation = Profit http://www.flickr.com/photos/mharrsch/160253695/
  238. 238. Ubiquity Profit! Branding Innovation Certainty
  239. 239. Ubiquity Market Profit! You Certainty
  240. 240. Ubiquity Profit! Why are we spending so much on stuff that has no strategic value? Certainty
  241. 241. All IT is the same! http://www.flickr.com/photos/rainbowproject/3928445074/
  242. 242. Ubiquity IT Certainty
  243. 243. Ubiquity Certainty
  244. 244. Ubiquity Infrastructure Certainty
  245. 245. Ubiquity Infrastructure Collective Accelerates Intelligence Certainty
  246. 246. Ubiquity provided as .. built on ... Certainty
  247. 247. One size fits all http://www.flickr.com/photos/rainbowproject/3928445074/
  248. 248. Ubiquity Certainty
  249. 249. Ubiquity Dynamic Certainty
  250. 250. Ubiquity Dynamic Uncertain Certainty
  251. 251. Ubiquity Dynamic Uncertain Deviation Certainty
  252. 252. Ubiquity Dynamic Uncertain Deviation Differential Certainty
  253. 253. Ubiquity Dynamic Uncertain Deviation Differential Worth Certainty
  254. 254. Ubiquity Certainty
  255. 255. Ubiquity Static Certainty
  256. 256. Ubiquity Static Defined Certainty
  257. 257. Ubiquity Static Defined No Deviation Certainty
  258. 258. Ubiquity Static Defined No Deviation Standard Certainty
  259. 259. Ubiquity Static Defined No Deviation Standard Cost Certainty
  260. 260. Ubiquity Different Characteristics Certainty
  261. 261. Ubiquity Utility Services of Salesforce 90’s Early Product Custom built, DB Marketing Innovation of early lists Certainty
  262. 262. Ubiquity No Magic Bullets Certainty
  263. 263. Ubiquity Six Sigma Agile Certainty
  264. 264. Ubiquity Six Sigma Certainty
  265. 265. Ubiquity Six Sigma Certainty
  266. 266. Ubiquity Six Sigma Certainty
  267. 267. The fundamental impulse that sets and keeps the capitalist engine in motion comes from the new consumers, goods, the new methods of production or transportation, the new markets, the new forms of industrial organization that capitalist enterprise creates. Joseph A. Schumpeter (1883 - 1950)
  268. 268. Ubiquity Agile Certainty
  269. 269. Ubiquity Agile Certainty
  270. 270. Ubiquity Agile Certainty
  271. 271. Ubiquity Market re ssu Pre You Prof. Van Valen “Red Queen Hypothesis” Certainty
  272. 272. Ubiquity Competitive Efficiency (Survival Today) Future Wealth (Survival Tomorrow) Certainty
  273. 273. Innovation Paradox Survival today requires ‘coherence, coordination and stability’. Survival tomorrow requires the replacement of these erstwhile virtues. Salaman & Storey
  274. 274. Ubiquity Software Platform Infrastructure Accelerated Innovation Certainty
  275. 275. Summary
  276. 276. Ubiquity Software ... as a Platform Service Infrastructure ... as a Product Certainty
  277. 277. Ubiquity Disruptive ... as a Product Certainty
  278. 278. variety of models Consumer Provider
  279. 279. Public cloud Private cloud Amazon EC2 Eucalyptus VM Web UI KVM Hyp. Cloud Node Controller Controller Common Management Tools Ubuntu Server Edition Physical (bare bones)
  280. 280. All IT is the SLAs are same! what count! It’s green! Standards It’s about don’t matter technology Cloud is an Only public cloud is cloud Innovation computing! http://www.flickr.com/photos/rainbowproject/3928445074/
  281. 281. Ubiquity Market re ssu Pre You Prof. Van Valen “Red Queen Hypothesis” Certainty
  282. 282. Henry Maudslay (1771 - 1831)
  283. 283. consumption efficiency
  284. 284. Ubiquity IT Certainty
  285. 285. Ubiquity Competitive Efficiency (Survival Today) Future Wealth (Survival Tomorrow) Certainty
  286. 286. Attitude Concept Technology Suitability
  287. 287. “The challenge of the computer utility” Douglas Parkhill 1966
  288. 288. Innovation = Profit http://www.flickr.com/photos/mharrsch/160253695/
  289. 289. Why?
  290. 290. We don’t know what “cloud” is yet but bet your company on it everybody else is. http://www.flickr.com/photos/rainbowproject/3928445074/
  291. 291. http://www.flickr.com/photos/8078381@N03/3979391704/
  292. 292. ubuntu.com/cloud @swardley
  293. 293. Change
  294. 294. Electricity Accounts Ubiquity Infrastructure Payroll CRM HR systems ERP Web Portal Search Engines Enterprise 2.0 Information market VRM Certainty
  295. 295. Electricity Accounts Ubiquity Infrastructure Payroll CRM HR systems ERP Web Portal Search Engines Enterprise 2.0 Information market VRM Certainty
  296. 296. Lifecycle
  297. 297. # Lifecycle
  298. 298. # Lifecycle
  299. 299. Electricity # Accounts Infrastructure Payroll CRM HR systems ERP Lifecycle
  300. 300. Linear # Procedural Predictable Outsourcing Lifecycle
  301. 301. # Chaotic Emergant Gamble Collaboration Lifecycle
  302. 302. http://www.flickr.com/photos/fatdeeman/2879894647
  303. 303. Linear Procedural Predictable Outsourcing http://www.flickr.com/photos/fatdeeman/2879894647
  304. 304. ? http://www.flickr.com/photos/fatdeeman/2879894647
  305. 305. http://www.flickr.com/photos/privatenobby
  306. 306. One size fits all http://www.flickr.com/photos/rainbowproject/3928445074/
  307. 307. Ubiquity HR Payroll Why are we spending $600M p.a. on customising stuff has no strategic value? Certainty
  308. 308. Ubiquity Six Sigma Certainty
  309. 309. Ubiquity Software Platform Infrastructure Accelerated Innovation Certainty
  310. 310. Situation normal, everything must change
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