Situation Normal Everything Must Change
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Situation Normal Everything Must Change

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A very short and codensed version of the pres

A very short and codensed version of the pres

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Situation Normal Everything Must Change Presentation Transcript

  • 1. Situation Normal,Everything Must Change
  • 2. EvolutionImpacts Cycles TodayStrategy
  • 3. Diffusion, a common concept ...
  • 4. Evolve ?... doesnt explain evolution ...
  • 5. However, theres a nonUbiquity time based process of evolution ... Utility Commodity Product Service Custom Built Genesis Certainty
  • 6. ... which we call commoditisationUbiquity User ti on iti sa m od C om Supply Certainty
  • 7. ... which helpsexplain the whole story.
  • 8. Map evolution against ... Custom CommodityGenesis Product Evolution
  • 9. ... value chain. We can useValue Chain this to explain how industry changes ... Evolution
  • 10. ... creating a cycle ofcommoditisation driving higher order systems.
  • 11. Hence Cloud ... Product Utility
  • 12. Chaotic As things evolve, their characteristics change ...
  • 13. Chaotic Linear Six Sigma... which is why one size fits all methods dont work.
  • 14. Evolution Impacts Cycles Today... this cycle also has Strategy standard impacts ...
  • 15. Creative Destruction + Efficiency $$+ Value
  • 16. Componentisation + Efficiency+ Agility+ Value
  • 17. Jevons + More + Efficiency+ Agility+ Value
  • 18. ... and its not just activities (what we do)that evolve but also practices (how we do things) ... ∆ Practices ∆ Activities
  • 19. ... through a similar process. Novel Emerging Good BestGenesis Custom Product Commodity
  • 20. Often practices co-evolve with activities ... Best Product Utility Best
  • 21. ... creating inertia to change ... Best Product Utility + Transition Best
  • 22. ... or a least one of the forms of inertia ... Inertia
  • 23. ... which also occurs in vendors ... Inertia + Past Success
  • 24. ... leading to three economic eras ... Peace / Margin War / Disruption Build / Growth
  • 25. Carlotta Perez... which appear in every age ...
  • 26. Peace / Margin Technology Diffusion Maturity Synergy War / Build / Growth Frenzy Disruption Eruption... e.g. .... Time
  • 27. Technology Diffusion Organisations ... each state of war is associated with new organisational forms ... Time
  • 28. ... those organisations beingbased on the new practices ... Best Product Utility Organisations Best
  • 29. ... hence we have a common cycle of change ... Inertia Disruption New Emerging Growth
  • 30. ... for every age ... Mechanical Components Inertia Disruption American Emerging System Growth
  • 31. ... ditto ... Means of mass communication Inertia Disruption Web 2.0 Emerging Growth
  • 32. ... ditto ... Cloud Inertia Disruption Next Emerging Growth
  • 33. ... ditto ...The next Age ?
  • 34. 2004
  • 35. ... ditto ... Manufacturing Inertia Disruption Next Next Emerging Growth
  • 36. ... also we see increases in unmodelled data ... Inertia Disruption Data New Emerging Growth
  • 37. ... which evolves ... Algorithms Unmodelled Modelled ∆ Practices ∆ Activities
  • 38. So what is happening today? Today ...
  • 39. ... what we would expect ... Cloud Inertia Disruption Data Next Emerging Growth
  • 40. ... and also new forms of organisation ... Web 2.0 Traditional Next
  • 41. ... with different Traditional Next Gencharacteristics ... Structure Departmental Cell Focus Profit Disruptive Open source Cost reduction Weapon Scaling Scale-up Distributed Resilience N+1 Design For Fail Failure Disaster Rec. Chaos Engine Learning Analysts Ecosystem Infrastructure Enterprise Commodity
  • 42. Of importance ... Ecosystem ...Innovate Leverage Commoditise
  • 43. ... and use of open as a competitive weapon ... Open Technology (open source, open data, openhardware, open standards, open APIs, open process)
  • 44. Open Technology1. Drive adoption2. Drive innovation (as in feature completeness)3. Drive innovation (genesis higher order systems)4. Drive efficiency5. Undermine competitors barrier to entry6. Enable formation of an ecosystem (ILC)7. Protect an existing value chain ... numerous strategies in the wild ...
  • 45. Open Technology9. Prevent competitors differentiating around a corerevenue stream (Tower & Moat)10. Retention and recruitment of talent11. On ramp to another product or service (open core)12. Overcome an obstacle (insertion strategy)13. Encourage formation of a competitive market(interoperable play)14. Avoid transition costs (standards play)
  • 46. Open Source & the Next Age ... this will also matter in the next age...
  • 47. ... critical is understandUbiquity evolution ... Utility Commodity Product Service Custom Built Genesis Certainty
  • 48. ThreatValue Chain Barrier ... understand the landscape ... Evolution
  • 49. Competing in an Open World Please complete oursurvey - bit.ly/opensurvey