0
Situation Normal, Everything Must Change
          Simon Wardley, Researcher




Leading Edge Forum                       ...
“The challenge of the
  computer utility”
   Douglas Parkhill
        1966
Ubiquity
                                   Utility Services


                                      Commodity

          ...
Ubiquity




                                io n
                           at
                      it is
              ...
Ubiquity

           Demand
           (user competition)

                                    io n
                      ...
Ubiquity
             Software
                                 ... as a
             Platform            Service
        ...
Attitude




Concept                 Technology




          Suitability
Ubiquity




           Standardised
             Service!

                          Marketplace




                    ...
Ubiquity

           Economies of scale
           (volume operations)   Agility
           Focus on core         (Self Se...
Creative
                       Destruction

Joseph A. Schumpeter
    (1883 - 1950)
Theory of Hierarchy
                    Componentisation


Herbert A. Simon
  (1916 - 2001)
Ubiquity
             Software
             Platform


           Infrastructure




                            Accelerat...
Standards
    Matter
Henry Maudslay
 (1771 - 1831)
Ubiquity



           Disruptive




                        Certainty
Transition     Outsourcing
Ubiquity

           Confusion      Suitability
           Governance     Competition
         ...
Ubiquity
             Market


                      Competitive
                         Gap
           You




         ...
Ubiquity
             Market




                   ure
                     ss
                 Pre
           You
      ...
Ubiquity




            Transitional Risks
            Security of supply,
           governance, trust ...
             ...
consumption


efficiency
“Jevons Paradox”

                    Technological progress
                      that increases the
                   e...
#




    Lifecycle
#



    Commoditisation
    Demand vs Supply Competition



       Innovation
      Creative Destruction
       Component...
H. Pixii, 1832             National Grid, ‘30s


Turing ‘36                    PowerEdge, ‘02


        Z3 ‘41      IBM 65...
#
      Chaotic             Linear
    Dynamic            Repeatable
    Deviation          Standardised
    Uncertain    ...
#




    Joseph A. Schumpeter   Prof. Van Valen
        (1883 - 1950)
                                     Lifecycle
Innovation Paradox
   Survival today requires ‘coherence,
      coordination and stability’.
    Survival tomorrow require...
#



       Commoditisation

    Network Effects, Open
     Source, Participation

          Innovation
                  ...
#



    Commoditisation

    Pricing, Confusion,
         Branding

      Innovation
                      Lifecycle
http://www.flickr.com/photos/rednuht/479370088
http://www.flickr.com/photos/fatdeeman/2879894647
#




    Six Sigma




        Lifecycle
Why are we spending
$600M p.a. on customising stuff
    has no strategic value?
One size fits all




http://www.flickr.com/photos/rainbowproject/3928445074/
IT
#

    Admin
    Business




               Lifecycle
VS
#
      Pioneers         Colonisers      Town Planner
      Innovate          Leverage        Commoditise

         Lists ...
#
     Innovate        Leverage          Commoditise
    Days / Weeks   Months / Years          Years
        Agile       ...
#
    Innovate    Leverage      Commoditse

    20% Work    Google Labs   Core Services

    Summer of   Marketplace   Defi...
Innovate        Leverage     Commoditse
                    Where2
GIS ‘62             Oct’04
                            ...
#
    Innovate    Leverage      Commoditse

    CRM Ideas   Acquisition   Core Services

                AppExchange     P...
Global Research & Advisory
       Organization
  Membership of a community of true
peers, business and technology experts
...
Leading Edge Forum
#




                         Lifecycle

    Leading Edge Forum
http://lef.csc.com




 Leading Edge Forum
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Foreshore Event

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Transcript of "Foreshore Event"

  1. 1. Situation Normal, Everything Must Change Simon Wardley, Researcher Leading Edge Forum 07/08/10 01:32 PM
  2. 2. “The challenge of the computer utility” Douglas Parkhill 1966
  3. 3. Ubiquity Utility Services Commodity Product Custom built Innovation Certainty
  4. 4. Ubiquity io n at it is o d m m Co Certainty
  5. 5. Ubiquity Demand (user competition) io n at it is o d m m Co Improvement (supply competition) Certainty
  6. 6. Ubiquity Software ... as a Platform Service Infrastructure ... as a Product Certainty
  7. 7. Attitude Concept Technology Suitability
  8. 8. Ubiquity Standardised Service! Marketplace Certainty
  9. 9. Ubiquity Economies of scale (volume operations) Agility Focus on core (Self Service) (outsource) Innovation Pay per use (creative destruction, (utility) componentisation) Certainty
  10. 10. Creative Destruction Joseph A. Schumpeter (1883 - 1950)
  11. 11. Theory of Hierarchy Componentisation Herbert A. Simon (1916 - 2001)
  12. 12. Ubiquity Software Platform Infrastructure Accelerated Innovation Certainty
  13. 13. Standards Matter Henry Maudslay (1771 - 1831)
  14. 14. Ubiquity Disruptive Certainty
  15. 15. Transition Outsourcing Ubiquity Confusion Suitability Governance Competition Trust Lock-in Security Second Source Transparency Control Certainty
  16. 16. Ubiquity Market Competitive Gap You Certainty
  17. 17. Ubiquity Market ure ss Pre You Prof. Van Valen “Red Queen Hypothesis” Certainty
  18. 18. Ubiquity Transitional Risks Security of supply, governance, trust ... Hybrid Certainty
  19. 19. consumption efficiency
  20. 20. “Jevons Paradox” Technological progress that increases the efficiency with which a resource is used, tends to increase the rate of consumption of that resource. William Stanley Jevons, 1865
  21. 21. # Lifecycle
  22. 22. # Commoditisation Demand vs Supply Competition Innovation Creative Destruction Componentisation Lifecycle
  23. 23. H. Pixii, 1832 National Grid, ‘30s Turing ‘36 PowerEdge, ‘02 Z3 ‘41 IBM 650, ‘54 Amazon EC2 ‘06 Siebel SIS ’94 Customer DBM ’80s Centric ‘70s VRM ‘06 MyDex ‘08 Lifecycle
  24. 24. # Chaotic Linear Dynamic Repeatable Deviation Standardised Uncertain Known Emergent Predictable Serendipty Procedural Competitive Adv. CODB Lifecycle
  25. 25. # Joseph A. Schumpeter Prof. Van Valen (1883 - 1950) Lifecycle
  26. 26. Innovation Paradox Survival today requires ‘coherence, coordination and stability’. Survival tomorrow requires the replacement of these erstwhile virtues. Salaman & Storey
  27. 27. # Commoditisation Network Effects, Open Source, Participation Innovation Lifecycle
  28. 28. # Commoditisation Pricing, Confusion, Branding Innovation Lifecycle
  29. 29. http://www.flickr.com/photos/rednuht/479370088
  30. 30. http://www.flickr.com/photos/fatdeeman/2879894647
  31. 31. # Six Sigma Lifecycle
  32. 32. Why are we spending $600M p.a. on customising stuff has no strategic value?
  33. 33. One size fits all http://www.flickr.com/photos/rainbowproject/3928445074/
  34. 34. IT # Admin Business Lifecycle
  35. 35. VS
  36. 36. # Pioneers Colonisers Town Planner Innovate Leverage Commoditise Lists Siebel SIS ’94 Customer DBM ’80s Salesforce ’02 (10.6%) Centric ‘70s Lifecycle
  37. 37. # Innovate Leverage Commoditise Days / Weeks Months / Years Years Agile Agile TOGAF Re-use Decide Common Service Experiment Evaluate Standardise Collaborate Monitor / Acquire Supply Chain High Risk ROI Price vs QoS Fail Quick Tactic Low Risk Min. Inv. Mod. Inv. High. Inv. In-house Ecosystem Outsource Lifecycle
  38. 38. # Innovate Leverage Commoditse 20% Work Google Labs Core Services Summer of Marketplace Defined Build Code Procedures Open Source Investment Acquisition Google Lifecycle
  39. 39. Innovate Leverage Commoditse Where2 GIS ‘62 Oct’04 Map API ’05 Panoramio ‘07 ‘08 Lifecycle
  40. 40. # Innovate Leverage Commoditse CRM Ideas Acquisition Core Services AppExchange Platform (monitor) Defined Build Procedures SalesForce Lifecycle
  41. 41. Global Research & Advisory Organization Membership of a community of true peers, business and technology experts and advisers Leading Edge Forum
  42. 42. Leading Edge Forum
  43. 43. # Lifecycle Leading Edge Forum
  44. 44. http://lef.csc.com Leading Edge Forum
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