Situation normal,
everything must
     change
Sccott Beale/Laughing Squid : http://www.flickr.com/photos/laughingsquid/
Pain
Pain




       No. Slides
Pain    20 slides




       OK
                    No. Slides
246 slides



            Severe
Pain




            risk of
             harm
       OK
                      No. Slides
photos/videoplacebo/3481780379/
Cloud?
Note 1: Cloud computing is still an evolving paradigm. Its definitions, use cases, underlying technologies, issues, risks, ...
Point 1
Cloud computing is
 still an evolving
     paradigm.
http://www.flickr.com/photos/rainbowproject/3928445074/
We don’t know
      what “cloud” is yet.




http://www.flickr.com/photos/rainbowproject/3928445074/
“The real thing to do today is to capture,
what are the dimensions of the thing that
 literally, I will tell you, we’re be...
We don’t know
      what “cloud” is yet




http://www.flickr.com/photos/rainbowproject/3928445074/
We don’t know
      what “cloud” is yet



                                           but bet your
                       ...
We don’t know
      what “cloud” is yet



                                           but bet your
                       ...
“open up exciting new
     prospects for the
employment of computers in
 ways and on a scale that
 would have seemed pure
...
“The challenge of the
  computer utility”
   Douglas Parkhill
        1966
http://www.flickr.com/photos/radioflyer007/ /upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/5/51/Metropolis.jpg
                         ...
http://ftp.arl.army.mil/ftp/historic-computers/png/brlescII1.png
Computer Utility
Cloud Computing
Change
Change
Why now?
Change
  Why now?
Benefits & Risk
Change
  Why now?
Benefits & Risk
   General
Change
   Why now?
 Benefits & Risk
    General
Managing Change
Ubiquity
Ubiquity




           Certainty
Ubiquity




           TV’s, Phones &
           VCRS




                   Certainty
Ubiquity




           TV’s, Phones &
           VCRS




                   Certainty
Ubiquity




           Innovation
                        Certainty
Ubiquity



           Commodity




             Certainty
Ubiquity




           Innovation of
           early lists, 1980.
                           Certainty
Ubiquity




           Custom built,
           DB Marketing
           Mid 80s
                      Certainty
Ubiquity




            Product
           Early 90s




                       Certainty
Utility Services
Ubiquity

              of Salesforce




                              Certainty
Ubiquity
                                   Utility Services


                                      Commodity

          ...
Ubiquity




           Innovation of Z3, 1941
                           Certainty
Ubiquity




           Custom Built LEO, 1946

                      Certainty
Ubiquity




             Products
           IBM 650, 1954




                           Certainty
Ubiquity



           Commodity
            Hardware




                       Certainty
Utility services
Ubiquity

           of Amazon EC2




                              Certainty
Ubiquity




           Innovation of W. H.
           Wollaston, 1821
                            Certainty
Ubiquity




           Early Products,
           Hippolyte Pixii, 1830s



                      Certainty
Utility Services
Ubiquity

           of the National
                  Grid




                              Certainty
Electricity
                                          Accounts
Ubiquity
                             Infrastructure       ...
Ubiquity




                                io n
                           at
                      it is
              ...
http://www.flickr.com/photos/privatenobby
http://www.flickr.com/photos/billege
http://www.flickr.com/photos/billege/
Ubiquity

           Demand
           (user competition)




                                Certainty
http://www.flickr.com/photos/privatenobby
http://www.flickr.com/photos/mush2274
http://www.flickr.com/photos/mush2274/
Ubiquity

           Demand
           (user competition)




                                Improvement
                ...
Ubiquity

           Demand
           (user competition)

                                    io n
                      ...
Ubiquity




           Certainty
Ubiquity




           Certainty
Ubiquity


           Widespread
            (Demand)


                        Feature Complete
                         ...
Ubiquity



           Utility Services




               Certainty
Application


Database      Framework       Messaging


           Operating System

             Virtualisation

  CPU   ...
Application


   Framework       Messaging


Operating System

  Virtualisation

    Memory            I/O
Application


   Framework       Messaging


Operating System

  Virtualisation               Infrastructure

    Memory  ...
Application


   Framework       Messaging     Platform


Operating System

  Virtualisation               Infrastructure
...
Application                   Software


   Framework       Messaging     Platform


Operating System

  Virtualisation   ...
Ubiquity
             Software
                                 ... as a
             Platform            Service
        ...
Change
Why now?
Concept
Concept




          Suitability
Concept
                  ?     Technology




          Suitability
Gerald J. Popek
 (1947-2008)
Attitude




Concept
           ?            Technology




          Suitability
Paul Strassmann   http://www.strassmann.com/
Nick Carr
Ubiquity




                        g
                      in ue
                     h l
                   is va
     ...
Payroll
    HR Systems
       CRM
        ERP
 Sales Automation
   Infrastructure
Finance & Accounting
Ubiquity

           HR   Payroll




                Certainty
Ubiquity

                         HR       Payroll




            Why are we spending
           $600M p.a. on customisi...
Customise your payroll
         system!




http://www.flickr.com/photos/rainbowproject/3928445074/
Ubiquity




           Way back
           when ...

                 Certainty
Ubiquity
               Now




           Way back
           when ...

                 Certainty
Ubiquity




           Standardised
             Service!




                          Certainty
Ubiquity




           Standardised
             Service!

                          Marketplace




                    ...
Attitude




Concept                 Technology




          Suitability
Ubiquity
             Software
                                 ... as a
             Platform            Service
        ...
Change
  Why now?
Benefits & Risk
Ubiquity
               Early Utility
               Westinghouse,
                  1890s


              Product
       ...
Ubiquity

           Economies of scale
           (volume operations)




                                 Certainty
Ubiquity

           Economies of scale
           (volume operations)

           Focus on core
           (outsource)


...
Ubiquity

           Economies of scale
           (volume operations)

           Focus on core
           (outsource)

 ...
Ubiquity

           Economies of scale
           (volume operations)

           Focus on core
           (outsource)

 ...
Ubiquity



           efficiency




                       Certainty
Ubiquity


           Agility
           (Self Service)




                     Certainty
Previous
             Time
             (mins)


 New
server     72,000

64 node
           130,000
 cluster
Previous   Cloud
             Time     Time
             (mins)    (mins)


 New
server     72,000       7

64 node
      ...
Ubiquity


           Agility
           (Self Service)

           Innovation
           (creative destruction,
         ...
The fundamental impulse
                       that sets and keeps the
                       capitalist engine in motion
...
The fundamental impulse
                       that sets and keeps the
                       capitalist engine in motion
...
Creative
                       Destruction

Joseph A. Schumpeter
    (1883 - 1950)
Ubiquity




                          lu e
                        Va
                 in   g
                d
         ...
Ubiquity




                          lu e
                        Va
                 in   g
                d
         ...
Ubiquity
             Internet
                        Electricity
           Hardware




                          Certa...
Ubiquity
                    Internet
                                Electricity
                Hardware



            ...
Ubiquity

             Software
             Platform


           Infrastructure




                              Enable...
Theory of Hierarchy
                    Componentisation


Herbert A. Simon
  (1916 - 2001)
Rate of evolution
                     of a system is
                    dependant upon
                    the organisat...
Application
Application


Database   Framework     Messaging
Application


Database      Framework       Messaging


           Operating System

             Virtualisation

  CPU   ...
Application


Database      Framework       Messaging


           Operating System

             Virtualisation

  CPU   ...
Application




        Orders of
        Magnitude

CPU
Ubiquity
             Software
             Platform


           Infrastructure




                            Accelerat...
Henry Maudslay
 (1771 - 1831)
Ubiquity


           Agility
           (Self Service)

           Innovation
           (creative destruction,
         ...
Importance




             Limit of IT




                           Projects
Importance




             Limit of IT

                            demand
                           (backlog)


       ...
Price



        !P




             !Q
                  Quantity
Ubiquity




           Innovation
           Flemming Valve, 1904
                        Certainty
Ubiquity




           Products
           Intel 4004,
           2300 Transistors, 1971



                     Certainty
Busicom
Busicom




MCS-4
Busicom




Co-Evolution
               MCS-4
> 1,000,000,000,000,000,000
Ubiquity


           Agility
           (Self Service)

           Innovation
           (creative destruction,
         ...
Ubiquity




           consumption




              Certainty
It’ll reduce your
                                             IT spend.




http://www.flickr.com/photos/rainbowproject/39...
consumption


efficiency
“Jevons Paradox”

                    Technological progress
                      that increases the
                   e...
Choice?
Ubiquity
             Market




           You




                      Certainty
Ubiquity
             Market


                      Competitive
                         Gap
           You




         ...
Ubiquity
             Market
                      Pay per use
                      Focus on core
                      E...
Ubiquity
             Market




                   ure
                     ss
                 Pre
           You




  ...
Ubiquity
             Market




                   ure
                     ss
                 Pre
           You
      ...
“Red Queen Hypothesis”

                  The need to constantly
                  evolve in order to stand
              ...
http://www.flickr.com/photos/privatenobby
http://www.flickr.com/photos/billege
http://www.flickr.com/photos/giddygoose/
No Choice?
Ubiquity




           Marketplace




               Certainty
Ubiquity

                  Private




           Marketplace




               Certainty
Ubiquity




               Hybrid




           Certainty
Ubiquity

           Transition
           Confusion
           Governance
           Trust
           Security
          ...
Ubiquity

           Transition     Outsourcing
           Confusion      Suitability
           Governance     Competitio...
Ubiquity




            Transitional Risks
            Security of supply,
           governance, trust ...
             ...
Ubiquity




           Certainty
Only public cloud is
     cloud computing!




http://www.flickr.com/photos/rainbowproject/3928445074/
Benefits   vs   Risks
Recap
Ubiquity
             Software
                                 ... as a
             Platform            Service
        ...
Attitude




Concept                 Technology




          Suitability
Ubiquity
             Software
             Platform


           Infrastructure




                            Accelerat...
Ubiquity

           Transition     Outsourcing
           Confusion      Suitability
           Governance     Competitio...
Ubiquity
             Market




                   ure
                     ss
                 Pre
           You
      ...
http://www.flickr.com/photos/privatenobby
Ubiquity




               Hybrid




           Certainty
Benefits   vs   Risks
Change
  Why now?
Benefits & Risk
   General
Ubiquity




               IT

           Certainty
Ubiquity




           Certainty
Ubiquity

           Infrastructure




                Certainty
Ubiquity

                          Infrastructure




            Collective      Enables
           Intelligence


     ...
Ubiquity


               provided as ..



           built on ...
                          Certainty
Ubiquity




           Certainty
Ubiquity




               Hybrid




           Certainty
Data

Code
Data

Code
Proprietary   Open Source
TCO



Proprietary   Open Source
Exit


Proprietary   Open Source
Minimise future costs

 defacto public standard

open source implementation
Change
   Why now?
 Benefits & Risk
    General
Managing Change
Electricity
                                          Accounts
Ubiquity
                             Infrastructure       ...
Electricity
                                          Accounts
Ubiquity
                             Infrastructure       ...
Lifecycle
#




    Lifecycle
#




    Lifecycle
Electricity
#

    Infrastructure
    Payroll
    CRM
    HR systems




                     Lifecycle
#



    Enterprise 2.0
    Information market
    VRM




                         Lifecycle
#

    Commoditisation
    Demand vs Suppply Competition
           Co-evolution




                             Lifecycle
#

    Commoditisation
    Demand vs Suppply Competition
           Co-evolution




        Innovation
       Creative De...
#




    Lifecycle
#


    Dynamic




              Lifecycle
#


    Dynamic
    Deviation




                Lifecycle
#


    Dynamic
    Deviation
    Uncertain




                Lifecycle
#


    Dynamic
    Deviation
    Uncertain
    Emergent




                Lifecycle
#


    Dynamic
    Deviation
    Uncertain
    Emergent
    Serendipty



                 Lifecycle
#


    Dynamic
    Deviation
    Uncertain
    Emergent
    Serendipty
    Competive Adv.


                     Lifecycle
#
      Chaotic
    Dynamic
    Deviation
    Uncertain
    Emergent
    Serendipty
    Competive Adv.


                 ...
#
      Chaotic        Linear
    Dynamic
    Deviation
    Uncertain
    Emergent
    Serendipty
    Competive Adv.


   ...
#
      Chaotic           Linear
    Dynamic          Repeatable
    Deviation
    Uncertain
    Emergent
    Serendipty
 ...
#
      Chaotic           Linear
    Dynamic          Repeatable
    Deviation        Standardised
    Uncertain
    Emerg...
#
      Chaotic           Linear
    Dynamic          Repeatable
    Deviation        Standardised
    Uncertain        Kn...
#
      Chaotic           Linear
    Dynamic          Repeatable
    Deviation        Standardised
    Uncertain        Kn...
#
      Chaotic           Linear
    Dynamic          Repeatable
    Deviation        Standardised
    Uncertain        Kn...
#
      Chaotic           Linear
    Dynamic          Repeatable
    Deviation        Standardised
    Uncertain        Kn...
#
      Chaotic           Linear
    Dynamic          Repeatable
    Deviation        Standardised
    Uncertain        Kn...
#
       Chaotic              Linear


    Innovation of        Utility Services
    early lists, 1980.      of Salesforce...
Use Six Sigma!




http://www.flickr.com/photos/rainbowproject/3928445074/
#
    Six Sigma




         Lifecycle
#
    Six Sigma
    Repeatable
    Standardised
    Known
    Predictable




            Lifecycle
#
                Six Sigma
    Dynamic
    Deviation
    Uncertain
    Emergent




                     Lifecycle
Use Six Sigma!




                                       No! Use Agile!




http://www.flickr.com/photos/rainbowproject/39...
#

    Agile
     Dynamic
     Deviation
     Uncertain
     Emergent




                 Lifecycle
#

    Agile
            Repeatable
            Standardised
            Known
            Predictable




               ...
#




    No Magic
     Bullet

               Lifecycle
#




    Joseph A. Schumpeter
        (1883 - 1950)
                           Lifecycle
#




    Joseph A. Schumpeter   Prof. Van Valen
        (1883 - 1950)
                                     Lifecycle
Innovation Paradox
   Survival today requires ‘coherence,
      coordination and stability’.
    Survival tomorrow require...
One Size fits all!




http://www.flickr.com/photos/rainbowproject/3928445074/
Ubiquity
                                   Utility Services


                                      Commodity

          ...
#




    Lifecycle
#




    Six Sigma




        Lifecycle
#




    Lifecycle
#




    Outsource




        Lifecycle
#




     Why are we spending
    $600M p.a. on customising
      stuff has no strategic
              value?




       ...
#

      Software
      Platform


    Infrastructure




                     Lifecycle
#

             Software
             Platform


           Infrastructure




    Innovation


                          ...
#




    “Built on”   “Provided as”




                        Lifecycle
http://www.flickr.com/photos/rednuht/479370088
http://www.flickr.com/photos/rednuht/479370088
http://www.flickr.com/photos/fatdeeman/2879894647
http://www.flickr.com/photos/fatdeeman/2879894647
http://www.flickr.com/photos/privatenobby
http://www.flickr.com/photos/8078381@N03/3979391704/
Recap
Ubiquity
             Software
                                 ... as a
             Platform            Service
        ...
Attitude




Concept                 Technology




          Suitability
Ubiquity
             Software
             Platform


           Infrastructure




                            Accelerat...
Ubiquity

           Transition     Outsourcing
           Confusion      Suitability
           Governance     Competitio...
consumption


efficiency
Ubiquity
             Market




                   ure
                     ss
                 Pre
           You
      ...
http://www.flickr.com/photos/privatenobby
Ubiquity




               Hybrid




           Certainty
Benefits   vs   Risks
Minimise future costs

 defacto public standard

open source implementation
#




    “Built on”   “Provided as”




                        Lifecycle
http://www.flickr.com/photos/rednuht/479370088
#

    Commoditisation
    Demand vs Suppply Competition
           Co-evolution




        Innovation
       Creative De...
2010 Study Tour – Surf the Change or Be Swept
Away – Consumerization, Mobility, and the Cloud

The annual LEF EP Study Tou...
E Crime Symposium June 10
E Crime Symposium June 10
E Crime Symposium June 10
E Crime Symposium June 10
E Crime Symposium June 10
E Crime Symposium June 10
E Crime Symposium June 10
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E Crime Symposium June 10

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An exploration of themes around cloud, innovation and commoditisation in I.T. at E-Crime Symposium.

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E Crime Symposium June 10

  1. 1. Situation normal, everything must change
  2. 2. Sccott Beale/Laughing Squid : http://www.flickr.com/photos/laughingsquid/
  3. 3. Pain
  4. 4. Pain No. Slides
  5. 5. Pain 20 slides OK No. Slides
  6. 6. 246 slides Severe Pain risk of harm OK No. Slides
  7. 7. photos/videoplacebo/3481780379/
  8. 8. Cloud?
  9. 9. Note 1: Cloud computing is still an evolving paradigm. Its definitions, use cases, underlying technologies, issues, risks, and benefits will be refined in a spirited debate by the public and private sectors. These definitions, attributes, and characteristics will evolve and change over time. Note 2: The cloud computing industry represents a large ecosystem of many models, vendors, and market niches. This definition attempts to encompass all of the various cloud approaches. Definition of Cloud Computing: Cloud computing is a model for enabling convenient, on-demand network access to a shared pool of configurable computing resources (e.g., networks, servers, storage, applications, and services) that can be rapidly provisioned and released with minimal management effort or service provider interaction. This cloud model promotes availability and is composed of five essential characteristics, three service models, and four deployment models. Essential Characteristics: On-demand self-service. A consumer can unilaterally provision computing capabilities, such as server time and network storage, as needed automatically without requiring human interaction with each service’s provider. Broad network access. Capabilities are available over the network and accessed through standard mechanisms that promote use by heterogeneous thin or thick client platforms (e.g., mobile phones, laptops, and PDAs). Resource pooling. The provider’s computing resources are pooled to serve multiple consumers using a multi-tenant model, with different physical and virtual resources dynamically assigned and reassigned according to consumer demand. There is a sense of location independence in that the customer generally has no control or knowledge over the exact location of the provided resources but may be able to specify location at a higher level of abstraction (e.g., country, state, or datacenter). Examples of resources include storage, processing, memory, network bandwidth, and virtual machines. Rapid elasticity. Capabilities can be rapidly and elastically provisioned, in some cases automatically, to quickly scale out and rapidly released to quickly scale in. To the consumer, the capabilities available for provisioning often appear to be unlimited and can be purchased in any quantity at any time. Measured Service. Cloud systems automatically control and optimize resource use by leveraging a metering capability at some level of abstraction appropriate to the type of service (e.g., storage, processing, bandwidth, and active user accounts). Resource usage can be monitored, controlled, and reported providing transparency for both the provider and consumer of the utilized service. Service Models: Cloud Software as a Service (SaaS). The capability provided to the consumer is to use the provider’s applications running on a cloud infrastructure. The applications are accessible from various client devices through a thin client interface such as a web browser (e.g., web-based email). The consumer does not manage or control the underlying cloud infrastructure including network, servers, operating systems, storage, or even individual application capabilities, with the possible exception of limited user-specific application configuration settings. Cloud Platform as a Service (PaaS). The capability provided to the consumer is to deploy onto the cloud infrastructure consumer-created or acquired applications created using programming languages and tools supported by the provider. The consumer does not manage or control the underlying cloud infrastructure including network, servers, operating systems, or storage, but has control over the deployed applications and possibly application hosting environment configurations. Cloud Infrastructure as a Service (IaaS). The capability provided to the consumer is to provision processing, storage, networks, and other fundamental computing resources where the consumer is able to deploy and run arbitrary software, which can include operating systems and applications. The consumer does not manage or control the underlying cloud infrastructure but has control over operating systems, storage, deployed applications, and possibly limited control of select networking components (e.g., host firewalls). Deployment Models: Private cloud. The cloud infrastructure is operated solely for an organization. It may be managed by the organization or a third party and may exist on premise or off premise. Community cloud. The cloud infrastructure is shared by several organizations and supports a specific community that has shared concerns (e.g., mission, security requirements, policy, and compliance considerations). It may be managed by the organizations or a third party and may exist on premise or off premise. Public cloud. The cloud infrastructure is made available to the general public or a large industry group and is owned by an organization selling cloud services. Hybrid cloud. The cloud infrastructure is a composition of two or more clouds (private, community, or public) that remain unique entities but are bound together by standardized or proprietary technology that enables data and application portability (e.g., cloud bursting for load-balancing between clouds).Note: Cloud software takes full advantage of the cloud paradigm by being service oriented with a focus on statelessness, low coupling, modularity, and semantic interoperability.
  10. 10. Point 1 Cloud computing is still an evolving paradigm.
  11. 11. http://www.flickr.com/photos/rainbowproject/3928445074/
  12. 12. We don’t know what “cloud” is yet. http://www.flickr.com/photos/rainbowproject/3928445074/
  13. 13. “The real thing to do today is to capture, what are the dimensions of the thing that literally, I will tell you, we’re betting our company on, and I think pretty much everybody in the technology industry is betting their companies on” Microsoft CEO, Steve Ballmer
  14. 14. We don’t know what “cloud” is yet http://www.flickr.com/photos/rainbowproject/3928445074/
  15. 15. We don’t know what “cloud” is yet but bet your company on it http://www.flickr.com/photos/rainbowproject/3928445074/
  16. 16. We don’t know what “cloud” is yet but bet your company on it everybody else is. http://www.flickr.com/photos/rainbowproject/3928445074/
  17. 17. “open up exciting new prospects for the employment of computers in ways and on a scale that would have seemed pure fantasy only five year ago”
  18. 18. “The challenge of the computer utility” Douglas Parkhill 1966
  19. 19. http://www.flickr.com/photos/radioflyer007/ /upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/5/51/Metropolis.jpg http:/
  20. 20. http://ftp.arl.army.mil/ftp/historic-computers/png/brlescII1.png
  21. 21. Computer Utility Cloud Computing
  22. 22. Change
  23. 23. Change Why now?
  24. 24. Change Why now? Benefits & Risk
  25. 25. Change Why now? Benefits & Risk General
  26. 26. Change Why now? Benefits & Risk General Managing Change
  27. 27. Ubiquity
  28. 28. Ubiquity Certainty
  29. 29. Ubiquity TV’s, Phones & VCRS Certainty
  30. 30. Ubiquity TV’s, Phones & VCRS Certainty
  31. 31. Ubiquity Innovation Certainty
  32. 32. Ubiquity Commodity Certainty
  33. 33. Ubiquity Innovation of early lists, 1980. Certainty
  34. 34. Ubiquity Custom built, DB Marketing Mid 80s Certainty
  35. 35. Ubiquity Product Early 90s Certainty
  36. 36. Utility Services Ubiquity of Salesforce Certainty
  37. 37. Ubiquity Utility Services Commodity Product Custom built Innovation Certainty
  38. 38. Ubiquity Innovation of Z3, 1941 Certainty
  39. 39. Ubiquity Custom Built LEO, 1946 Certainty
  40. 40. Ubiquity Products IBM 650, 1954 Certainty
  41. 41. Ubiquity Commodity Hardware Certainty
  42. 42. Utility services Ubiquity of Amazon EC2 Certainty
  43. 43. Ubiquity Innovation of W. H. Wollaston, 1821 Certainty
  44. 44. Ubiquity Early Products, Hippolyte Pixii, 1830s Certainty
  45. 45. Utility Services Ubiquity of the National Grid Certainty
  46. 46. Electricity Accounts Ubiquity Infrastructure Payroll CRM HR systems ERP Web Portal Search Engines Enterprise 2.0 Information market VRM Certainty
  47. 47. Ubiquity io n at it is o d m m Co Certainty
  48. 48. http://www.flickr.com/photos/privatenobby
  49. 49. http://www.flickr.com/photos/billege
  50. 50. http://www.flickr.com/photos/billege/
  51. 51. Ubiquity Demand (user competition) Certainty
  52. 52. http://www.flickr.com/photos/privatenobby
  53. 53. http://www.flickr.com/photos/mush2274
  54. 54. http://www.flickr.com/photos/mush2274/
  55. 55. Ubiquity Demand (user competition) Improvement (supply competition) Certainty
  56. 56. Ubiquity Demand (user competition) io n at it is o d m m Co Improvement (supply competition) Certainty
  57. 57. Ubiquity Certainty
  58. 58. Ubiquity Certainty
  59. 59. Ubiquity Widespread (Demand) Feature Complete (Improvement) Certainty
  60. 60. Ubiquity Utility Services Certainty
  61. 61. Application Database Framework Messaging Operating System Virtualisation CPU Memory I/O
  62. 62. Application Framework Messaging Operating System Virtualisation Memory I/O
  63. 63. Application Framework Messaging Operating System Virtualisation Infrastructure Memory I/O
  64. 64. Application Framework Messaging Platform Operating System Virtualisation Infrastructure Memory I/O
  65. 65. Application Software Framework Messaging Platform Operating System Virtualisation Infrastructure Memory I/O
  66. 66. Ubiquity Software ... as a Platform Service Infrastructure ... as a Product Certainty
  67. 67. Change Why now?
  68. 68. Concept
  69. 69. Concept Suitability
  70. 70. Concept ? Technology Suitability
  71. 71. Gerald J. Popek (1947-2008)
  72. 72. Attitude Concept ? Technology Suitability
  73. 73. Paul Strassmann http://www.strassmann.com/
  74. 74. Nick Carr
  75. 75. Ubiquity g in ue h l is va in c im gi D e ra t st Certainty
  76. 76. Payroll HR Systems CRM ERP Sales Automation Infrastructure Finance & Accounting
  77. 77. Ubiquity HR Payroll Certainty
  78. 78. Ubiquity HR Payroll Why are we spending $600M p.a. on customising stuff has no strategic value? Certainty
  79. 79. Customise your payroll system! http://www.flickr.com/photos/rainbowproject/3928445074/
  80. 80. Ubiquity Way back when ... Certainty
  81. 81. Ubiquity Now Way back when ... Certainty
  82. 82. Ubiquity Standardised Service! Certainty
  83. 83. Ubiquity Standardised Service! Marketplace Certainty
  84. 84. Attitude Concept Technology Suitability
  85. 85. Ubiquity Software ... as a Platform Service Infrastructure ... as a Product Certainty
  86. 86. Change Why now? Benefits & Risk
  87. 87. Ubiquity Early Utility Westinghouse, 1890s Product Hippolyte Pixii, 1830s Certainty
  88. 88. Ubiquity Economies of scale (volume operations) Certainty
  89. 89. Ubiquity Economies of scale (volume operations) Focus on core (outsource) Certainty
  90. 90. Ubiquity Economies of scale (volume operations) Focus on core (outsource) Pay per use (utility) Certainty
  91. 91. Ubiquity Economies of scale (volume operations) Focus on core (outsource) Pay per use (utility) Certainty
  92. 92. Ubiquity efficiency Certainty
  93. 93. Ubiquity Agility (Self Service) Certainty
  94. 94. Previous Time (mins) New server 72,000 64 node 130,000 cluster
  95. 95. Previous Cloud Time Time (mins) (mins) New server 72,000 7 64 node 130,000 15 cluster
  96. 96. Ubiquity Agility (Self Service) Innovation (creative destruction, componentisation) Certainty
  97. 97. The fundamental impulse that sets and keeps the capitalist engine in motion comes from the new consumers, goods, the new methods of production or transportation, the new markets, the new forms of industrial organization that capitalist enterprise creates. Joseph A. Schumpeter (1883 - 1950)
  98. 98. The fundamental impulse that sets and keeps the capitalist engine in motion comes from the new consumers, goods, the new methods of production or transportation, the new markets, the new forms of industrial organization that capitalist enterprise creates. Joseph A. Schumpeter (1883 - 1950)
  99. 99. Creative Destruction Joseph A. Schumpeter (1883 - 1950)
  100. 100. Ubiquity lu e Va in g d E ro Certainty
  101. 101. Ubiquity lu e Va in g d E ro Enables Innovation Certainty
  102. 102. Ubiquity Internet Electricity Hardware Certainty
  103. 103. Ubiquity Internet Electricity Hardware Enable Innovation Search Certainty
  104. 104. Ubiquity Software Platform Infrastructure Enable Innovation Certainty
  105. 105. Theory of Hierarchy Componentisation Herbert A. Simon (1916 - 2001)
  106. 106. Rate of evolution of a system is dependant upon the organisation of its subsystems. Herbert A. Simon (1916 - 2001)
  107. 107. Application
  108. 108. Application Database Framework Messaging
  109. 109. Application Database Framework Messaging Operating System Virtualisation CPU Memory I/O
  110. 110. Application Database Framework Messaging Operating System Virtualisation CPU Memory I/O
  111. 111. Application Orders of Magnitude CPU
  112. 112. Ubiquity Software Platform Infrastructure Accelerated Innovation Certainty
  113. 113. Henry Maudslay (1771 - 1831)
  114. 114. Ubiquity Agility (Self Service) Innovation (creative destruction, componentisation) Opportunity (long tail, co-evolution, price elasticity) Certainty
  115. 115. Importance Limit of IT Projects
  116. 116. Importance Limit of IT demand (backlog) Projects
  117. 117. Price !P !Q Quantity
  118. 118. Ubiquity Innovation Flemming Valve, 1904 Certainty
  119. 119. Ubiquity Products Intel 4004, 2300 Transistors, 1971 Certainty
  120. 120. Busicom
  121. 121. Busicom MCS-4
  122. 122. Busicom Co-Evolution MCS-4
  123. 123. > 1,000,000,000,000,000,000
  124. 124. Ubiquity Agility (Self Service) Innovation (creative destruction, componentisation) Opportunity (long tail, co-evolution, price elasticity) Certainty
  125. 125. Ubiquity consumption Certainty
  126. 126. It’ll reduce your IT spend. http://www.flickr.com/photos/rainbowproject/3928445074/
  127. 127. consumption efficiency
  128. 128. “Jevons Paradox” Technological progress that increases the efficiency with which a resource is used, tends to increase the rate of consumption of that resource. William Stanley Jevons, 1865
  129. 129. Choice?
  130. 130. Ubiquity Market You Certainty
  131. 131. Ubiquity Market Competitive Gap You Certainty
  132. 132. Ubiquity Market Pay per use Focus on core Economies of scale Speed to market Accelerated innovation You Certainty
  133. 133. Ubiquity Market ure ss Pre You Certainty
  134. 134. Ubiquity Market ure ss Pre You Prof. Van Valen “Red Queen Hypothesis” Certainty
  135. 135. “Red Queen Hypothesis” The need to constantly evolve in order to stand still relative to a surrounding ecosystem Prof. Van Valen
  136. 136. http://www.flickr.com/photos/privatenobby
  137. 137. http://www.flickr.com/photos/billege
  138. 138. http://www.flickr.com/photos/giddygoose/
  139. 139. No Choice?
  140. 140. Ubiquity Marketplace Certainty
  141. 141. Ubiquity Private Marketplace Certainty
  142. 142. Ubiquity Hybrid Certainty
  143. 143. Ubiquity Transition Confusion Governance Trust Security Transparency Certainty
  144. 144. Ubiquity Transition Outsourcing Confusion Suitability Governance Competition Trust Lock-in Security Second Source Transparency Control Certainty
  145. 145. Ubiquity Transitional Risks Security of supply, governance, trust ... Hybrid Certainty
  146. 146. Ubiquity Certainty
  147. 147. Only public cloud is cloud computing! http://www.flickr.com/photos/rainbowproject/3928445074/
  148. 148. Benefits vs Risks
  149. 149. Recap
  150. 150. Ubiquity Software ... as a Platform Service Infrastructure ... as a Product Certainty
  151. 151. Attitude Concept Technology Suitability
  152. 152. Ubiquity Software Platform Infrastructure Accelerated Innovation Certainty
  153. 153. Ubiquity Transition Outsourcing Confusion Suitability Governance Competition Trust Lock-in Security Second Source Transparency Control Certainty
  154. 154. Ubiquity Market ure ss Pre You Prof. Van Valen “Red Queen Hypothesis” Certainty
  155. 155. http://www.flickr.com/photos/privatenobby
  156. 156. Ubiquity Hybrid Certainty
  157. 157. Benefits vs Risks
  158. 158. Change Why now? Benefits & Risk General
  159. 159. Ubiquity IT Certainty
  160. 160. Ubiquity Certainty
  161. 161. Ubiquity Infrastructure Certainty
  162. 162. Ubiquity Infrastructure Collective Enables Intelligence Certainty
  163. 163. Ubiquity provided as .. built on ... Certainty
  164. 164. Ubiquity Certainty
  165. 165. Ubiquity Hybrid Certainty
  166. 166. Data Code
  167. 167. Data Code
  168. 168. Proprietary Open Source
  169. 169. TCO Proprietary Open Source
  170. 170. Exit Proprietary Open Source
  171. 171. Minimise future costs defacto public standard open source implementation
  172. 172. Change Why now? Benefits & Risk General Managing Change
  173. 173. Electricity Accounts Ubiquity Infrastructure Payroll CRM HR systems ERP Web Portal Search Engines Enterprise 2.0 Information market VRM Certainty
  174. 174. Electricity Accounts Ubiquity Infrastructure Payroll CRM HR systems ERP Web Portal Search Engines Enterprise 2.0 Information market VRM Certainty
  175. 175. Lifecycle
  176. 176. # Lifecycle
  177. 177. # Lifecycle
  178. 178. Electricity # Infrastructure Payroll CRM HR systems Lifecycle
  179. 179. # Enterprise 2.0 Information market VRM Lifecycle
  180. 180. # Commoditisation Demand vs Suppply Competition Co-evolution Lifecycle
  181. 181. # Commoditisation Demand vs Suppply Competition Co-evolution Innovation Creative Destruction Componentisation Lifecycle
  182. 182. # Lifecycle
  183. 183. # Dynamic Lifecycle
  184. 184. # Dynamic Deviation Lifecycle
  185. 185. # Dynamic Deviation Uncertain Lifecycle
  186. 186. # Dynamic Deviation Uncertain Emergent Lifecycle
  187. 187. # Dynamic Deviation Uncertain Emergent Serendipty Lifecycle
  188. 188. # Dynamic Deviation Uncertain Emergent Serendipty Competive Adv. Lifecycle
  189. 189. # Chaotic Dynamic Deviation Uncertain Emergent Serendipty Competive Adv. Lifecycle
  190. 190. # Chaotic Linear Dynamic Deviation Uncertain Emergent Serendipty Competive Adv. Lifecycle
  191. 191. # Chaotic Linear Dynamic Repeatable Deviation Uncertain Emergent Serendipty Competive Adv. Lifecycle
  192. 192. # Chaotic Linear Dynamic Repeatable Deviation Standardised Uncertain Emergent Serendipty Competive Adv. Lifecycle
  193. 193. # Chaotic Linear Dynamic Repeatable Deviation Standardised Uncertain Known Emergent Serendipty Competive Adv. Lifecycle
  194. 194. # Chaotic Linear Dynamic Repeatable Deviation Standardised Uncertain Known Emergent Predictable Serendipty Competive Adv. Lifecycle
  195. 195. # Chaotic Linear Dynamic Repeatable Deviation Standardised Uncertain Known Emergent Predictable Serendipty Procedural Competive Adv. Lifecycle
  196. 196. # Chaotic Linear Dynamic Repeatable Deviation Standardised Uncertain Known Emergent Predictable Serendipty Procedural Competive Adv. CODB Lifecycle
  197. 197. # Chaotic Linear Dynamic Repeatable Deviation Standardised Uncertain Known Emergent Predictable Serendipty Procedural Competive Adv. CODB Lifecycle
  198. 198. # Chaotic Linear Innovation of Utility Services early lists, 1980. of Salesforce Lifecycle
  199. 199. Use Six Sigma! http://www.flickr.com/photos/rainbowproject/3928445074/
  200. 200. # Six Sigma Lifecycle
  201. 201. # Six Sigma Repeatable Standardised Known Predictable Lifecycle
  202. 202. # Six Sigma Dynamic Deviation Uncertain Emergent Lifecycle
  203. 203. Use Six Sigma! No! Use Agile! http://www.flickr.com/photos/rainbowproject/3928445074/
  204. 204. # Agile Dynamic Deviation Uncertain Emergent Lifecycle
  205. 205. # Agile Repeatable Standardised Known Predictable Lifecycle
  206. 206. # No Magic Bullet Lifecycle
  207. 207. # Joseph A. Schumpeter (1883 - 1950) Lifecycle
  208. 208. # Joseph A. Schumpeter Prof. Van Valen (1883 - 1950) Lifecycle
  209. 209. Innovation Paradox Survival today requires ‘coherence, coordination and stability’. Survival tomorrow requires the replacement of these erstwhile virtues. Salaman & Storey
  210. 210. One Size fits all! http://www.flickr.com/photos/rainbowproject/3928445074/
  211. 211. Ubiquity Utility Services Commodity Product Custom built Innovation Certainty
  212. 212. # Lifecycle
  213. 213. # Six Sigma Lifecycle
  214. 214. # Lifecycle
  215. 215. # Outsource Lifecycle
  216. 216. # Why are we spending $600M p.a. on customising stuff has no strategic value? Lifecycle
  217. 217. # Software Platform Infrastructure Lifecycle
  218. 218. # Software Platform Infrastructure Innovation Lifecycle
  219. 219. # “Built on” “Provided as” Lifecycle
  220. 220. http://www.flickr.com/photos/rednuht/479370088
  221. 221. http://www.flickr.com/photos/rednuht/479370088
  222. 222. http://www.flickr.com/photos/fatdeeman/2879894647
  223. 223. http://www.flickr.com/photos/fatdeeman/2879894647
  224. 224. http://www.flickr.com/photos/privatenobby
  225. 225. http://www.flickr.com/photos/8078381@N03/3979391704/
  226. 226. Recap
  227. 227. Ubiquity Software ... as a Platform Service Infrastructure ... as a Product Certainty
  228. 228. Attitude Concept Technology Suitability
  229. 229. Ubiquity Software Platform Infrastructure Accelerated Innovation Certainty
  230. 230. Ubiquity Transition Outsourcing Confusion Suitability Governance Competition Trust Lock-in Security Second Source Transparency Control Certainty
  231. 231. consumption efficiency
  232. 232. Ubiquity Market ure ss Pre You Prof. Van Valen “Red Queen Hypothesis” Certainty
  233. 233. http://www.flickr.com/photos/privatenobby
  234. 234. Ubiquity Hybrid Certainty
  235. 235. Benefits vs Risks
  236. 236. Minimise future costs defacto public standard open source implementation
  237. 237. # “Built on” “Provided as” Lifecycle
  238. 238. http://www.flickr.com/photos/rednuht/479370088
  239. 239. # Commoditisation Demand vs Suppply Competition Co-evolution Innovation Creative Destruction Componentisation Lifecycle
  240. 240. 2010 Study Tour – Surf the Change or Be Swept Away – Consumerization, Mobility, and the Cloud The annual LEF EP Study Tour this year will focus on the rapid evolution of IT consumerization – In terms of driving business change Some Key Questions To Be Addressed • How do we treat IT-savvy employees and customers – in terms of their technology decision rights? • How do we promote business value add in terms of social networking tool usage? – without “heavy handed “ IT governance? • What information sharing rules need to be changed in an era of increased external collaboration? • How do we make it easier for staff to leverage cloud computing services? – while maintaining enterprise discipline around security and risk? 17 – 22 October 2010 San Francisco, USA For more information, visit: http:// lef.csc.com/events/studytour Leading Edge Forum 06/08/10 02:53 AM
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