E Crime Symposium June 10

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An exploration of themes around cloud, innovation and commoditisation in I.T. at E-Crime Symposium.

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E Crime Symposium June 10

  1. 1. Situation normal, everything must change
  2. 2. Sccott Beale/Laughing Squid : http://www.flickr.com/photos/laughingsquid/
  3. 3. Pain
  4. 4. Pain No. Slides
  5. 5. Pain 20 slides OK No. Slides
  6. 6. 246 slides Severe Pain risk of harm OK No. Slides
  7. 7. photos/videoplacebo/3481780379/
  8. 8. Cloud?
  9. 9. Note 1: Cloud computing is still an evolving paradigm. Its definitions, use cases, underlying technologies, issues, risks, and benefits will be refined in a spirited debate by the public and private sectors. These definitions, attributes, and characteristics will evolve and change over time. Note 2: The cloud computing industry represents a large ecosystem of many models, vendors, and market niches. This definition attempts to encompass all of the various cloud approaches. Definition of Cloud Computing: Cloud computing is a model for enabling convenient, on-demand network access to a shared pool of configurable computing resources (e.g., networks, servers, storage, applications, and services) that can be rapidly provisioned and released with minimal management effort or service provider interaction. This cloud model promotes availability and is composed of five essential characteristics, three service models, and four deployment models. Essential Characteristics: On-demand self-service. A consumer can unilaterally provision computing capabilities, such as server time and network storage, as needed automatically without requiring human interaction with each service’s provider. Broad network access. Capabilities are available over the network and accessed through standard mechanisms that promote use by heterogeneous thin or thick client platforms (e.g., mobile phones, laptops, and PDAs). Resource pooling. The provider’s computing resources are pooled to serve multiple consumers using a multi-tenant model, with different physical and virtual resources dynamically assigned and reassigned according to consumer demand. There is a sense of location independence in that the customer generally has no control or knowledge over the exact location of the provided resources but may be able to specify location at a higher level of abstraction (e.g., country, state, or datacenter). Examples of resources include storage, processing, memory, network bandwidth, and virtual machines. Rapid elasticity. Capabilities can be rapidly and elastically provisioned, in some cases automatically, to quickly scale out and rapidly released to quickly scale in. To the consumer, the capabilities available for provisioning often appear to be unlimited and can be purchased in any quantity at any time. Measured Service. Cloud systems automatically control and optimize resource use by leveraging a metering capability at some level of abstraction appropriate to the type of service (e.g., storage, processing, bandwidth, and active user accounts). Resource usage can be monitored, controlled, and reported providing transparency for both the provider and consumer of the utilized service. Service Models: Cloud Software as a Service (SaaS). The capability provided to the consumer is to use the provider’s applications running on a cloud infrastructure. The applications are accessible from various client devices through a thin client interface such as a web browser (e.g., web-based email). The consumer does not manage or control the underlying cloud infrastructure including network, servers, operating systems, storage, or even individual application capabilities, with the possible exception of limited user-specific application configuration settings. Cloud Platform as a Service (PaaS). The capability provided to the consumer is to deploy onto the cloud infrastructure consumer-created or acquired applications created using programming languages and tools supported by the provider. The consumer does not manage or control the underlying cloud infrastructure including network, servers, operating systems, or storage, but has control over the deployed applications and possibly application hosting environment configurations. Cloud Infrastructure as a Service (IaaS). The capability provided to the consumer is to provision processing, storage, networks, and other fundamental computing resources where the consumer is able to deploy and run arbitrary software, which can include operating systems and applications. The consumer does not manage or control the underlying cloud infrastructure but has control over operating systems, storage, deployed applications, and possibly limited control of select networking components (e.g., host firewalls). Deployment Models: Private cloud. The cloud infrastructure is operated solely for an organization. It may be managed by the organization or a third party and may exist on premise or off premise. Community cloud. The cloud infrastructure is shared by several organizations and supports a specific community that has shared concerns (e.g., mission, security requirements, policy, and compliance considerations). It may be managed by the organizations or a third party and may exist on premise or off premise. Public cloud. The cloud infrastructure is made available to the general public or a large industry group and is owned by an organization selling cloud services. Hybrid cloud. The cloud infrastructure is a composition of two or more clouds (private, community, or public) that remain unique entities but are bound together by standardized or proprietary technology that enables data and application portability (e.g., cloud bursting for load-balancing between clouds).Note: Cloud software takes full advantage of the cloud paradigm by being service oriented with a focus on statelessness, low coupling, modularity, and semantic interoperability.
  10. 10. Point 1 Cloud computing is still an evolving paradigm.
  11. 11. http://www.flickr.com/photos/rainbowproject/3928445074/
  12. 12. We don’t know what “cloud” is yet. http://www.flickr.com/photos/rainbowproject/3928445074/
  13. 13. “The real thing to do today is to capture, what are the dimensions of the thing that literally, I will tell you, we’re betting our company on, and I think pretty much everybody in the technology industry is betting their companies on” Microsoft CEO, Steve Ballmer
  14. 14. We don’t know what “cloud” is yet http://www.flickr.com/photos/rainbowproject/3928445074/
  15. 15. We don’t know what “cloud” is yet but bet your company on it http://www.flickr.com/photos/rainbowproject/3928445074/
  16. 16. We don’t know what “cloud” is yet but bet your company on it everybody else is. http://www.flickr.com/photos/rainbowproject/3928445074/
  17. 17. “open up exciting new prospects for the employment of computers in ways and on a scale that would have seemed pure fantasy only five year ago”
  18. 18. “The challenge of the computer utility” Douglas Parkhill 1966
  19. 19. http://www.flickr.com/photos/radioflyer007/ /upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/5/51/Metropolis.jpg http:/
  20. 20. http://ftp.arl.army.mil/ftp/historic-computers/png/brlescII1.png
  21. 21. Computer Utility Cloud Computing
  22. 22. Change
  23. 23. Change Why now?
  24. 24. Change Why now? Benefits & Risk
  25. 25. Change Why now? Benefits & Risk General
  26. 26. Change Why now? Benefits & Risk General Managing Change
  27. 27. Ubiquity
  28. 28. Ubiquity Certainty
  29. 29. Ubiquity TV’s, Phones & VCRS Certainty
  30. 30. Ubiquity TV’s, Phones & VCRS Certainty
  31. 31. Ubiquity Innovation Certainty
  32. 32. Ubiquity Commodity Certainty
  33. 33. Ubiquity Innovation of early lists, 1980. Certainty
  34. 34. Ubiquity Custom built, DB Marketing Mid 80s Certainty
  35. 35. Ubiquity Product Early 90s Certainty
  36. 36. Utility Services Ubiquity of Salesforce Certainty
  37. 37. Ubiquity Utility Services Commodity Product Custom built Innovation Certainty
  38. 38. Ubiquity Innovation of Z3, 1941 Certainty
  39. 39. Ubiquity Custom Built LEO, 1946 Certainty
  40. 40. Ubiquity Products IBM 650, 1954 Certainty
  41. 41. Ubiquity Commodity Hardware Certainty
  42. 42. Utility services Ubiquity of Amazon EC2 Certainty
  43. 43. Ubiquity Innovation of W. H. Wollaston, 1821 Certainty
  44. 44. Ubiquity Early Products, Hippolyte Pixii, 1830s Certainty
  45. 45. Utility Services Ubiquity of the National Grid Certainty
  46. 46. Electricity Accounts Ubiquity Infrastructure Payroll CRM HR systems ERP Web Portal Search Engines Enterprise 2.0 Information market VRM Certainty
  47. 47. Ubiquity io n at it is o d m m Co Certainty
  48. 48. http://www.flickr.com/photos/privatenobby
  49. 49. http://www.flickr.com/photos/billege
  50. 50. http://www.flickr.com/photos/billege/
  51. 51. Ubiquity Demand (user competition) Certainty
  52. 52. http://www.flickr.com/photos/privatenobby
  53. 53. http://www.flickr.com/photos/mush2274
  54. 54. http://www.flickr.com/photos/mush2274/
  55. 55. Ubiquity Demand (user competition) Improvement (supply competition) Certainty
  56. 56. Ubiquity Demand (user competition) io n at it is o d m m Co Improvement (supply competition) Certainty
  57. 57. Ubiquity Certainty
  58. 58. Ubiquity Certainty
  59. 59. Ubiquity Widespread (Demand) Feature Complete (Improvement) Certainty
  60. 60. Ubiquity Utility Services Certainty
  61. 61. Application Database Framework Messaging Operating System Virtualisation CPU Memory I/O
  62. 62. Application Framework Messaging Operating System Virtualisation Memory I/O
  63. 63. Application Framework Messaging Operating System Virtualisation Infrastructure Memory I/O
  64. 64. Application Framework Messaging Platform Operating System Virtualisation Infrastructure Memory I/O
  65. 65. Application Software Framework Messaging Platform Operating System Virtualisation Infrastructure Memory I/O
  66. 66. Ubiquity Software ... as a Platform Service Infrastructure ... as a Product Certainty
  67. 67. Change Why now?
  68. 68. Concept
  69. 69. Concept Suitability
  70. 70. Concept ? Technology Suitability
  71. 71. Gerald J. Popek (1947-2008)
  72. 72. Attitude Concept ? Technology Suitability
  73. 73. Paul Strassmann http://www.strassmann.com/
  74. 74. Nick Carr
  75. 75. Ubiquity g in ue h l is va in c im gi D e ra t st Certainty
  76. 76. Payroll HR Systems CRM ERP Sales Automation Infrastructure Finance & Accounting
  77. 77. Ubiquity HR Payroll Certainty
  78. 78. Ubiquity HR Payroll Why are we spending $600M p.a. on customising stuff has no strategic value? Certainty
  79. 79. Customise your payroll system! http://www.flickr.com/photos/rainbowproject/3928445074/
  80. 80. Ubiquity Way back when ... Certainty
  81. 81. Ubiquity Now Way back when ... Certainty
  82. 82. Ubiquity Standardised Service! Certainty
  83. 83. Ubiquity Standardised Service! Marketplace Certainty
  84. 84. Attitude Concept Technology Suitability
  85. 85. Ubiquity Software ... as a Platform Service Infrastructure ... as a Product Certainty
  86. 86. Change Why now? Benefits & Risk
  87. 87. Ubiquity Early Utility Westinghouse, 1890s Product Hippolyte Pixii, 1830s Certainty
  88. 88. Ubiquity Economies of scale (volume operations) Certainty
  89. 89. Ubiquity Economies of scale (volume operations) Focus on core (outsource) Certainty
  90. 90. Ubiquity Economies of scale (volume operations) Focus on core (outsource) Pay per use (utility) Certainty
  91. 91. Ubiquity Economies of scale (volume operations) Focus on core (outsource) Pay per use (utility) Certainty
  92. 92. Ubiquity efficiency Certainty
  93. 93. Ubiquity Agility (Self Service) Certainty
  94. 94. Previous Time (mins) New server 72,000 64 node 130,000 cluster
  95. 95. Previous Cloud Time Time (mins) (mins) New server 72,000 7 64 node 130,000 15 cluster
  96. 96. Ubiquity Agility (Self Service) Innovation (creative destruction, componentisation) Certainty
  97. 97. The fundamental impulse that sets and keeps the capitalist engine in motion comes from the new consumers, goods, the new methods of production or transportation, the new markets, the new forms of industrial organization that capitalist enterprise creates. Joseph A. Schumpeter (1883 - 1950)
  98. 98. The fundamental impulse that sets and keeps the capitalist engine in motion comes from the new consumers, goods, the new methods of production or transportation, the new markets, the new forms of industrial organization that capitalist enterprise creates. Joseph A. Schumpeter (1883 - 1950)
  99. 99. Creative Destruction Joseph A. Schumpeter (1883 - 1950)
  100. 100. Ubiquity lu e Va in g d E ro Certainty
  101. 101. Ubiquity lu e Va in g d E ro Enables Innovation Certainty
  102. 102. Ubiquity Internet Electricity Hardware Certainty
  103. 103. Ubiquity Internet Electricity Hardware Enable Innovation Search Certainty
  104. 104. Ubiquity Software Platform Infrastructure Enable Innovation Certainty
  105. 105. Theory of Hierarchy Componentisation Herbert A. Simon (1916 - 2001)
  106. 106. Rate of evolution of a system is dependant upon the organisation of its subsystems. Herbert A. Simon (1916 - 2001)
  107. 107. Application
  108. 108. Application Database Framework Messaging
  109. 109. Application Database Framework Messaging Operating System Virtualisation CPU Memory I/O
  110. 110. Application Database Framework Messaging Operating System Virtualisation CPU Memory I/O
  111. 111. Application Orders of Magnitude CPU
  112. 112. Ubiquity Software Platform Infrastructure Accelerated Innovation Certainty
  113. 113. Henry Maudslay (1771 - 1831)
  114. 114. Ubiquity Agility (Self Service) Innovation (creative destruction, componentisation) Opportunity (long tail, co-evolution, price elasticity) Certainty
  115. 115. Importance Limit of IT Projects
  116. 116. Importance Limit of IT demand (backlog) Projects
  117. 117. Price !P !Q Quantity
  118. 118. Ubiquity Innovation Flemming Valve, 1904 Certainty
  119. 119. Ubiquity Products Intel 4004, 2300 Transistors, 1971 Certainty
  120. 120. Busicom
  121. 121. Busicom MCS-4
  122. 122. Busicom Co-Evolution MCS-4
  123. 123. > 1,000,000,000,000,000,000
  124. 124. Ubiquity Agility (Self Service) Innovation (creative destruction, componentisation) Opportunity (long tail, co-evolution, price elasticity) Certainty
  125. 125. Ubiquity consumption Certainty
  126. 126. It’ll reduce your IT spend. http://www.flickr.com/photos/rainbowproject/3928445074/
  127. 127. consumption efficiency
  128. 128. “Jevons Paradox” Technological progress that increases the efficiency with which a resource is used, tends to increase the rate of consumption of that resource. William Stanley Jevons, 1865
  129. 129. Choice?
  130. 130. Ubiquity Market You Certainty
  131. 131. Ubiquity Market Competitive Gap You Certainty
  132. 132. Ubiquity Market Pay per use Focus on core Economies of scale Speed to market Accelerated innovation You Certainty
  133. 133. Ubiquity Market ure ss Pre You Certainty
  134. 134. Ubiquity Market ure ss Pre You Prof. Van Valen “Red Queen Hypothesis” Certainty
  135. 135. “Red Queen Hypothesis” The need to constantly evolve in order to stand still relative to a surrounding ecosystem Prof. Van Valen
  136. 136. http://www.flickr.com/photos/privatenobby
  137. 137. http://www.flickr.com/photos/billege
  138. 138. http://www.flickr.com/photos/giddygoose/
  139. 139. No Choice?
  140. 140. Ubiquity Marketplace Certainty
  141. 141. Ubiquity Private Marketplace Certainty
  142. 142. Ubiquity Hybrid Certainty
  143. 143. Ubiquity Transition Confusion Governance Trust Security Transparency Certainty
  144. 144. Ubiquity Transition Outsourcing Confusion Suitability Governance Competition Trust Lock-in Security Second Source Transparency Control Certainty
  145. 145. Ubiquity Transitional Risks Security of supply, governance, trust ... Hybrid Certainty
  146. 146. Ubiquity Certainty
  147. 147. Only public cloud is cloud computing! http://www.flickr.com/photos/rainbowproject/3928445074/
  148. 148. Benefits vs Risks
  149. 149. Recap
  150. 150. Ubiquity Software ... as a Platform Service Infrastructure ... as a Product Certainty
  151. 151. Attitude Concept Technology Suitability
  152. 152. Ubiquity Software Platform Infrastructure Accelerated Innovation Certainty
  153. 153. Ubiquity Transition Outsourcing Confusion Suitability Governance Competition Trust Lock-in Security Second Source Transparency Control Certainty
  154. 154. Ubiquity Market ure ss Pre You Prof. Van Valen “Red Queen Hypothesis” Certainty
  155. 155. http://www.flickr.com/photos/privatenobby
  156. 156. Ubiquity Hybrid Certainty
  157. 157. Benefits vs Risks
  158. 158. Change Why now? Benefits & Risk General
  159. 159. Ubiquity IT Certainty
  160. 160. Ubiquity Certainty
  161. 161. Ubiquity Infrastructure Certainty
  162. 162. Ubiquity Infrastructure Collective Enables Intelligence Certainty
  163. 163. Ubiquity provided as .. built on ... Certainty
  164. 164. Ubiquity Certainty
  165. 165. Ubiquity Hybrid Certainty
  166. 166. Data Code
  167. 167. Data Code
  168. 168. Proprietary Open Source
  169. 169. TCO Proprietary Open Source
  170. 170. Exit Proprietary Open Source
  171. 171. Minimise future costs defacto public standard open source implementation
  172. 172. Change Why now? Benefits & Risk General Managing Change
  173. 173. Electricity Accounts Ubiquity Infrastructure Payroll CRM HR systems ERP Web Portal Search Engines Enterprise 2.0 Information market VRM Certainty
  174. 174. Electricity Accounts Ubiquity Infrastructure Payroll CRM HR systems ERP Web Portal Search Engines Enterprise 2.0 Information market VRM Certainty
  175. 175. Lifecycle
  176. 176. # Lifecycle
  177. 177. # Lifecycle
  178. 178. Electricity # Infrastructure Payroll CRM HR systems Lifecycle
  179. 179. # Enterprise 2.0 Information market VRM Lifecycle
  180. 180. # Commoditisation Demand vs Suppply Competition Co-evolution Lifecycle
  181. 181. # Commoditisation Demand vs Suppply Competition Co-evolution Innovation Creative Destruction Componentisation Lifecycle
  182. 182. # Lifecycle
  183. 183. # Dynamic Lifecycle
  184. 184. # Dynamic Deviation Lifecycle
  185. 185. # Dynamic Deviation Uncertain Lifecycle
  186. 186. # Dynamic Deviation Uncertain Emergent Lifecycle
  187. 187. # Dynamic Deviation Uncertain Emergent Serendipty Lifecycle
  188. 188. # Dynamic Deviation Uncertain Emergent Serendipty Competive Adv. Lifecycle
  189. 189. # Chaotic Dynamic Deviation Uncertain Emergent Serendipty Competive Adv. Lifecycle
  190. 190. # Chaotic Linear Dynamic Deviation Uncertain Emergent Serendipty Competive Adv. Lifecycle
  191. 191. # Chaotic Linear Dynamic Repeatable Deviation Uncertain Emergent Serendipty Competive Adv. Lifecycle
  192. 192. # Chaotic Linear Dynamic Repeatable Deviation Standardised Uncertain Emergent Serendipty Competive Adv. Lifecycle
  193. 193. # Chaotic Linear Dynamic Repeatable Deviation Standardised Uncertain Known Emergent Serendipty Competive Adv. Lifecycle
  194. 194. # Chaotic Linear Dynamic Repeatable Deviation Standardised Uncertain Known Emergent Predictable Serendipty Competive Adv. Lifecycle
  195. 195. # Chaotic Linear Dynamic Repeatable Deviation Standardised Uncertain Known Emergent Predictable Serendipty Procedural Competive Adv. Lifecycle
  196. 196. # Chaotic Linear Dynamic Repeatable Deviation Standardised Uncertain Known Emergent Predictable Serendipty Procedural Competive Adv. CODB Lifecycle
  197. 197. # Chaotic Linear Dynamic Repeatable Deviation Standardised Uncertain Known Emergent Predictable Serendipty Procedural Competive Adv. CODB Lifecycle
  198. 198. # Chaotic Linear Innovation of Utility Services early lists, 1980. of Salesforce Lifecycle
  199. 199. Use Six Sigma! http://www.flickr.com/photos/rainbowproject/3928445074/
  200. 200. # Six Sigma Lifecycle
  201. 201. # Six Sigma Repeatable Standardised Known Predictable Lifecycle
  202. 202. # Six Sigma Dynamic Deviation Uncertain Emergent Lifecycle
  203. 203. Use Six Sigma! No! Use Agile! http://www.flickr.com/photos/rainbowproject/3928445074/
  204. 204. # Agile Dynamic Deviation Uncertain Emergent Lifecycle
  205. 205. # Agile Repeatable Standardised Known Predictable Lifecycle
  206. 206. # No Magic Bullet Lifecycle
  207. 207. # Joseph A. Schumpeter (1883 - 1950) Lifecycle
  208. 208. # Joseph A. Schumpeter Prof. Van Valen (1883 - 1950) Lifecycle
  209. 209. Innovation Paradox Survival today requires ‘coherence, coordination and stability’. Survival tomorrow requires the replacement of these erstwhile virtues. Salaman & Storey
  210. 210. One Size fits all! http://www.flickr.com/photos/rainbowproject/3928445074/
  211. 211. Ubiquity Utility Services Commodity Product Custom built Innovation Certainty
  212. 212. # Lifecycle
  213. 213. # Six Sigma Lifecycle
  214. 214. # Lifecycle
  215. 215. # Outsource Lifecycle
  216. 216. # Why are we spending $600M p.a. on customising stuff has no strategic value? Lifecycle
  217. 217. # Software Platform Infrastructure Lifecycle
  218. 218. # Software Platform Infrastructure Innovation Lifecycle
  219. 219. # “Built on” “Provided as” Lifecycle
  220. 220. http://www.flickr.com/photos/rednuht/479370088
  221. 221. http://www.flickr.com/photos/rednuht/479370088
  222. 222. http://www.flickr.com/photos/fatdeeman/2879894647
  223. 223. http://www.flickr.com/photos/fatdeeman/2879894647
  224. 224. http://www.flickr.com/photos/privatenobby
  225. 225. http://www.flickr.com/photos/8078381@N03/3979391704/
  226. 226. Recap
  227. 227. Ubiquity Software ... as a Platform Service Infrastructure ... as a Product Certainty
  228. 228. Attitude Concept Technology Suitability
  229. 229. Ubiquity Software Platform Infrastructure Accelerated Innovation Certainty
  230. 230. Ubiquity Transition Outsourcing Confusion Suitability Governance Competition Trust Lock-in Security Second Source Transparency Control Certainty
  231. 231. consumption efficiency
  232. 232. Ubiquity Market ure ss Pre You Prof. Van Valen “Red Queen Hypothesis” Certainty
  233. 233. http://www.flickr.com/photos/privatenobby
  234. 234. Ubiquity Hybrid Certainty
  235. 235. Benefits vs Risks
  236. 236. Minimise future costs defacto public standard open source implementation
  237. 237. # “Built on” “Provided as” Lifecycle
  238. 238. http://www.flickr.com/photos/rednuht/479370088
  239. 239. # Commoditisation Demand vs Suppply Competition Co-evolution Innovation Creative Destruction Componentisation Lifecycle
  240. 240. 2010 Study Tour – Surf the Change or Be Swept Away – Consumerization, Mobility, and the Cloud The annual LEF EP Study Tour this year will focus on the rapid evolution of IT consumerization – In terms of driving business change Some Key Questions To Be Addressed • How do we treat IT-savvy employees and customers – in terms of their technology decision rights? • How do we promote business value add in terms of social networking tool usage? – without “heavy handed “ IT governance? • What information sharing rules need to be changed in an era of increased external collaboration? • How do we make it easier for staff to leverage cloud computing services? – while maintaining enterprise discipline around security and risk? 17 – 22 October 2010 San Francisco, USA For more information, visit: http:// lef.csc.com/events/studytour Leading Edge Forum 06/08/10 02:53 AM

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