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India S  Future   By  Gurcharan  Das ( Nov 2009)
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India S Future By Gurcharan Das ( Nov 2009)

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Indi's Future: Economic state of the Nation …

Indi's Future: Economic state of the Nation
--Proaperity will spread in India but happiness will not,untill we fix governance:Gurucharan Das

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Even though the world has just discovered it, the India growth story is not new. It has been going on for 25 years
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from Radha Rajan
date Tue, Jan 5, 2010 at 9:50 PM
subject Economic state of the nation

Excellent powerpoint presentation for the layman. Concise and telling. Urge you to see it.

RR

Published in: Business, Health & Medicine

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  • Please centre and cut the word old and put It has been onto a new line- could we make a consistent style for statements- maybe always in yellow, centred and growing? Please could we have some kind of outline of India in the background to make the slide prettier
  • Could we use the script- does that fit with template?
  • Could we have a line for the y axis as well as numbers Please animate all graphs so lines/bars and pie charts grow
  • Again y axis
  • Again line for y axis- is there a reason that the line is on green rather than orange?
  • Line for y axis
  • Y axis line Could we put text in white in a box of It– put Equals …..on its own line in yellow to make it more impactful
  • Could we centre up the chart?
  • Cut the word and and centre up. Could we either make the statement grow and/or make it into a different colour to make it more impactful? Or could we add an image – we have loads of India images
  • Is it on brand to use script here?
  • Could we add India image from file? Make yellow title bullet and white sub bullets
  • Again could we add India image from file Same with bullets and sub bullets
  • animate
  • Centre up and change colour Grow as two separate statements
  • Centre these up – maybe make a little bigger?
  • These should be bullet points- image search Indian Policeman?
  • Image of Delhi at night from Google or istock?
  • Make bullets consistent
  • Y axis as a line Please cut This means
  • Make bullets consistent
  • Animate graph
  • Pic of Indian school kids? Consistent bullet points
  • Please make a pie chart out of religious percentages Make bullet points out of last 3 points
  • Could we find an Indian Elephant image?
  • Transcript

    • 1. INDIA’S FUTURE Or prosperity will spread in India but happiness will not, until we fix governance by Gurcharan Das November 12, 2009 WIPRO Marbella
    • 2.
      • Where are we coming from?
      • Where are we today?
      • Where are we going in the
      • future?
    • 3. Even though the world has just discovered it, the India growth story is not new It has been going on for 25 years
    • 4. What is the India story?
    • 5. 28 years of high growth 1.0 3.5 6.0 8.9 (%) Average annual GDP growth 0 2 4 6 8 10 1900-1950 1950-1980 1980-2002 2002-2007
    • 6. Population growth is slowing Sources: 1900-1990: Angus Maddison (1995), Monitoring the World Economy, 1990-2000:Census of India (2001) 1.0 2.2 2.1 1.8 1.5 (%) 0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 1901-1950 1951-1980 1981-1990 1991-2000 2001-2010
    • 7. Literacy is rising Source: Census of India (2001) 17 52 65 80 (%) 0 20 40 60 80 100 1950 1990 2000 2010 (proj)
    • 8. When middle class is 50% then the politics will also change Source: The Consuming Class, National Council of Applied Economic Research, 2002 65 220 368 8% 22% 32% 0 100 200 300 400 1980 2000 2010 (m)
    • 9. Poverty is declining 46 26 16 1% of the people have been crossing poverty line each year for 25 years Equals ~ 200m (%) 0 10 20 30 40 50 1980 2000 2010
    • 10. Per capita income gains Source: World Bank US$ ppp 2005 3,051 1980 1,178
    • 11. India is now the 4th largest economy
      • It will overtake Japan between 2012 and 2014 to become the 3rd largest
    • 12. The India model is unique
    • 13. Drivers of growth
      • India
        • Domestic
      • East and S.E. Asia
        • Exports
    • 14. Drivers of growth
      • India
        • Domestic
        • Services
      • East and S.E. Asia
        • Exports
        • Manufacturing
    • 15. Drivers of growth
      • India
        • Domestic
        • Services
        • Consumption
      • East and S.E. Asia
        • Exports
        • Manufacturing
        • Investment
    • 16. Drivers of growth
      • India
        • Domestic
        • Services
        • Consumption
        • High tech, capital intensive industry
      • East and S.E. Asia
        • Exports
        • Manufacturing
        • Investment
        • Low tech, labour intensive industry
    • 17. Implications of India model
      • ‘ Domestically led’ means:
        • Insulation from global downturns
        • Less volatility
        • We will come out of the global crisis
        • faster
    • 18. Implication of India model
      • ‘ Services led’ raises uncomfortable questions:
        • Have we skipped the industrial revolution?
        • How do we take people from farms to cities?
        • Will SEZ’s be our tipping point?
    • 19. Implication of India model – Consumption led People Friendly: Consumption as % of GDP People Friendly, Less inequality: Gini Index Will India become the next big consuming economy after the U.S.? 41% 45% 59% U.S. China Brazil India 33% 58% 42% 64% Europe China India
    • 20. Reasons for success India’s success is market-led whereas China’s is state induced The entrepreneur is at the centre of the Indian model
    • 21. Rise of globally competitive Indian companies
    • 22. India has a vibrant private space
        • 100 Indian Companies have market cap of US$ 1bn
    • 23. India has a vibrant private space
        • 100 Indian Companies have market cap of US$ 1bn
        • 1,000 Indian Companies have received foreign institutional investment
    • 24. India has a vibrant private space
        • 100 Indian Companies have market cap of US$ 1bn
        • 1,000 Indian Companies have received foreign institutional investment
        • 125 Fortune 500 companies have R&D bases in India
    • 25. India has a vibrant private space
        • 100 Indian Companies have market cap of US$ 1bn
        • 1,000 Indian Companies have received foreign institutional investment
        • 125 Fortune 500 companies have R&D bases in India
        • 390 Fortune 500 companies have outsourced software development to India
    • 26. India has a vibrant private space
        • 100 Indian Companies have market cap of US$ 1bn
        • 1,000 Indian Companies have received foreign institutional investment
        • 125 Fortune 500 companies have R&D bases in India
        • 390 Fortune 500 companies have outsourced software development to India
        • 2% bad loans in Indian banks (v~20% in China)
    • 27. India has a vibrant private space
        • 100 Indian Companies have market cap of US$ 1bn
        • 1,000 Indian Companies have received foreign institutional investment
        • 125 Fortune 500 companies have R&D bases in India
        • 390 Fortune 500 companies have outsourced software development to India
        • 2% bad loans in Indian banks (v~20% in China)
        • 80% credit goes to private sector (v~10% in China)
    • 28. Public space is a problem
      • We have
        • Dynamic democracy with honest elections
        • Free, lively media and press
        • But we also have
        • Poor governance !
    • 29. Governance Failures
      • Not the minister caught with a bribe
      • 1 out of 4 school teachers absent in
      • government schools
      • 2 out of 5 doctors absent in primary health
      • centers
      • Delhi’s water
      • Land titles
      • Etc
    • 30. Ironically, we used to have world class institutions from 1950-1980, but our problem was growth. Now we have growth, but our institutions are failing
        • Bureaucracy
        • Judiciary
        • Police
    • 31. The economy grows at night when the government is asleep
    • 32.  
    • 33. Key reforms
        • Opened economy to trade and investment
        • Dismantled controls
        • Lowered tariffs
        • Dropped tax rates
        • Broke public sector monopolies
    • 34. Understanding India’s economic success
        • Remarkable --every government has reformed (slowly)
        • since 1991
        • Even slow reforms add up
        • 65 countries have done the same reforms – why did India
        • become the second fastest in the world?
        • Unappreciated fact – rule of law
    • 35. “ By 2010 India will have world’s largest number of English speakers” “When 300 million Indians speak a word in a certain way, that will be the way to speak it.” Professor David Crystal Cambridge Encyclopedia of the English Language
    • 36. Understanding India’s economic success
        • Mental revolution among the young
        • ‘ I want to be Bilgay’
        • Raju’s secret of success
        • Banianisation of society
        • 180 TV channels; 65 news channels
        • The rise of Hinglish
    • 37. Where are we today?
      • Growth fell to 6.7% in 08-09; 7% in 09-10
      • Pain has been less than in China
      • Competitive companies have recovered faster.
      • Risk of protectionism has receded
      • Recovery has been ahead of the world
    • 38. Where are we going?
        • Base case post recovery is 7.5 % – 8.5 % GDP growth
        • Democracy will not permit more than 8% unless you have a Thatcher
        • 1.5% population growth
        • Demographic dividend – growth will continue beyond China’s
    • 39. Per capita income 2,100 3,050 5,800 16,800 37,000 On a ppp basis 2000 2005 2020 2040 2066 0 10 20 30 40 ($000)
    • 40. Convergence in the 21st century
        • Why convergence is intuitive?
        • Convergence didn’t happen in the 20th century because the world was closed
        • Returning to a world of equality prior to 1750
        • When China and India accounted for 45% of world GDP
    • 41. India will gradually turn middle-class 50% 50% 8% 22% 32% West of the Kanpur- Chennai line East of the Kanpur- Chennai line Chennai Kanpur- 1980 2000 2010 2020 2040
    • 42. What could stop the show?
      • Infrastructure
      • - Improving via public-private parterships
      • Fiscal Deficit
      • Governance
      • None of these stopped the show in the past 25 years
      • - Nuclear War?
    • 43. Education System
      • Is reasonably good for the top 20%
      • But it is abysmal for the rest
        • 1 in 4 teachers is absent in government primary schools
        • Hence, 54% of children in urban India are in
        • private schools
        • Solution: Education Vouchers
    • 44. Caste system
        • Origin of India’s caste system
        • Classical four castes vs 3000 jatis
        • Hostage to competitive politics
        • Source of competitive advantage
        • Affirmative action
    • 45. Role of Religion
      • India’s pluralism, diversity and tolerance
      • Hinduism
        • Spiritual entrepreneurialism: Gurus
        • No hierarchy: Every Brahmin thinks he is the Pope
        • 300 million gods: Lack of theological narcissism
        • Nasadiya Temper
      85% Hindu 12% Muslim 2% Sikh 1% Christian
    • 46. Elephant and not Tiger
        • India got democracy before capitalism and this has made all the difference
        • It is slower than China but its path is surer
        • However, an elephant at 8% growth is a formidable beast
        • We have waited 3000 years for this moment
        • India is more likely to preserve its way of life
    • 47. The Wise Elephant