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TV, The Internet and Social Media: Executive Briefing

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An executive briefing on the future of Television including Internet enabled Smart TVs, TV Apps, mobile, and social media integration.

An executive briefing on the future of Television including Internet enabled Smart TVs, TV Apps, mobile, and social media integration.

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    TV, The Internet and Social Media: Executive Briefing TV, The Internet and Social Media: Executive Briefing Presentation Transcript

    • TV the Internetand Social Media Stuar t W. Volkow Xtropia Par tners svolkow@ucla.edu www.stuar tvolkow.com 1 1
    • 2
    • Traditional TV Business Models1. Advertising: Vimeo,Youtube, Crackle, Hulu, Blip TV, Funny or Die etc2. Pay TV (CATV, Satellite Subs)3. Pay Per View or rental: Red Box,Youtube,Vudu (Wallmart)4. Pay to Own: DVD, Downloads: iTunes, Amazon5. Subscription: Netflix, Amazon Prime, Hulu+6. Transactions / Direct Sales 3 3
    • Emerging TV Business Models1. Brand / Product Integration: VuGuru, Electus, Revision 3,Youtube, Crackle, Hulu, Blip TV, Funny or Die, L-Studio, Xfaxtor, American Idol etc.2. Online Content Networks/Ad Networks(Revision3, Machinima,Outrigger)3. Direct to Audience Subscription: HBO GO, ABC, Xfinity4. Pay to Own: DVD, Downloads: iTunes, Amazon5. Transactions / Direct Sales 4 4
    • TV is Changing in Fundamental Ways•From one-way to two-way•From one-to-many to Multi-Modal•From Scheduled to On-Demand•From Sequential “Windows” to Simultaneous•From Broadcast to Variable Quality(exponential growth in UGC)•From Channels to Markets 5
    • TV is Changing in Fundamental Ways• Reality is here to stay worldwide and in more forms• Networks struggle to find niches and ID• Edgy, dark, fantasy, stylized, ?• More complex distribution deals all-around• Gobalization: Where the growth is. 6
    • FAC T S 7 7
    • The US Broadcast NetworksCopyright 2008, Stuart W. Volkow TV Reborn 8 8
    • 9 9
    • Global Advertising 2011=$500 Billion at 4.5% CAGR* $70 Billion / YR U.S. TV Advertising Revenue Google’s Ad Revenue 2010 >20 Billion to $29 Billion** major Networks (CPG and Auto are largest)Global Online Advertising 2011=$80 Billion at 17.2% CAGR* 10 10
    • 11 11
    • Copyright 2009, Stuart W. Volkow Media Marketplace 12
    • 2006-2011 Wild Ride! Disney News Corp Comcast Time Warner CBSCopyright 2008, Stuart W. Volkow TV Reborn 13 13
    • Copyright 2008, Stuart W. Volkow TV Reborn 14 14
    • Copyright 2008, Stuart W. Volkow TV Reborn 15 15
    • 16
    • Nielsen 3 Screen Report Vol #8 Q1 2010 Highlights:• The amount of time spent watching television is still increasing:viewers watched two more hours of TV per month in Q1 2010than in Q1 2009• Average time spent simultaneously using TV and Internet in thehome grew 9.8%, to 3 hours and 41 minutes per month• The number of people who are timeshifting has grown 18%since last year to 94 million, with the average user nowtimeshifting 9 hours and 36 minutes per month• The mobile video audience grew 51.2% year-over- year,surpassing 20 million users for the first time• 52.7% of US homes now have HDTVs and receive HDTVsignals 17
    • Time Warner CEO Jeff Bewkes: Growth Coming From Overseas And TV Everywhereexpects to see a doubling of his overseas business that now generatesabout $2.5B a year in revenue and $500M in operating profit. Most ofthe increase will come as the company’s pay TV networks and showsbecome more broadly distributed, generating higher ratings and adsales. “The value of American-produced content is going up pretty fastaround the world,” 18
    • Connected Devices and TVs• Apple TV • Samsung• Google TV • PS3 • LG• Roku • XBOX • Panasonic• Vudu 19 19
    • Internet Enabled TVsInternet-Enabled iSuppli estimatesTelevisions that by 2014(IETVs) set to some 148 millionrise by a factor televisions withof six by 2013, Internetaccording to connectivity williSuppli Corp. be sold annually. 20 20
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    • 22 22
    • 23 23
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    • Copyright 2009 Stuart Wayne Volkow 25
    • Revue just wasnt hitting the sales targets Logitechoriginally set; after the company dropped the Revue downto $199 in May, they decided to drop another $100 off thisweek. Engadget, 7/28/2011 FAIL 26 26
    • Google TV 2.0 ? http://www.google.com/tv/ http://www.google.com/tv/apps.html 27 27
    • Movies start at $2.99 to rent and $9.99 to own, and you can download TV series for even less. And don’t worry about filling up your hard drive and not having room for games. The PlayStation®3 system is the only console that lets you save all your movies and TV to an external drive.28 28
    • 29 29
    • 30 30
    • “Absolutely, it is aguaranteed productfor Apple,” I wastold by one “prototypes forindividual. “Steve a mass-marketthinks the industry television setis totally broken.” that wouldNick Bolton NYT allow users to access all their media through iCloud and could reach the market in late 2012 or 2013.” SJMN 31
    • The Big Worry for Pay TV Cord Cutting Reed Hastings - Netflix - CEO - Q3 2010 Earnings Report...on cord cutting we still see no evidence that our subscut cords at greater rates than the general population, andits something we survey now and then on. On yourpersonal experience, you know, it is all over the map. Wehave tons of anecdotes of people who -- the streamingstimulates the uses of other formats for, like you saidstreaming meets most of their entertainment needs. So,quite a lot of variety with 17 million members. 32 32
    • Cost of Traditional TV Cost to Replace Traditional TV Digital antenna (over-the-air local channels and✦ Comcast Digital Premier sports) $50 Hulu Plus, per year ($9.99/month) $119.88 Package: $136.93 per month, Joost, YouTube, TV.com, network Web sites (ABC, NBC, CBS, FOX)free 1,632 per year. Netflix Instant, per year: ($8.99/month) $107.88 Includes 200 digital cable channels, with Cost for Roku box, $79.99 premium movie channels, a sports package, on- (free if you have an Xbox, TiVo, Wii, or PS3) demand movies and shows, local programming, Apple TV: Cost for box $229 and DVR service. $1.99 Cost for one premium show per weeknight for a year = $517.40✦ Satellite TV, per year: OR Amazon Video on Demand: Standard-def episodes $1,463.88 $1.99 Cost for one show per weeknight for a year DirecTV Premier Package: $121.99 per $517.40 month. Includes 285-plus digital channels, with premium movie channels plus HD First year (includes equipment costs) $1,104.15 channels and HD DVR with service. Beats cable by $539.01 Beats satellite by $359.73Cable, per year $1,643.16 Second year (no equipment costs) $745.16 Really beats cable and satellite ($898.00; $718.72) 33 33
    • Strategy Questiosn✦ What TVContent Should be Made Available Over The Internet (fixed/mobile)? ✦ Under What Terms? ✦ Pricing?✦ WhatContent Should Be Kept Exclusive for Broadcast?✦ WhatNew Business Models Will Work With Which Audience? 34 34
    • Conflicting Business Models Networks Block Web Programs From Being Viewed on Google TV Sam Schechner, Amir Eefrati, WSJ, 10/22/10 • ABC, CBS and NBC are blocking TV programming on their websites from being viewable on Google TV service • Hulu, whose owners include Disney, NBC Universal and News Corp., also blocks its video • Time Warner Inc.s HBO and Turner Broadcasting networks agreed to be onboard as well as FOX and MTVhttp://online.wsj.com/video/digits-networks-block-web-programs-from-google-tv/F6EB2E6F-DF74-4F1E-8CA6-62C5B814428A.html 35 35
    • Time Warner VOD plans could threaten movietheaters, Netflix and RedboxJon Swartz, USA TODAY, Nov 3, 2010 • "will help lead the (film) industry" to show brand new flicks -- ones that are still playing in theaters -- on VOD by mid-2011, Bewkes told Wall Street analysts in a conference call. • Under the plan, called premium VOD, studios would charge $50 or so to give cable or satellite customers the opportunity to gather family or friends and watch a new movie from the comfort of the living room instead of a theater • Warner Bros. might lengthen the delay period before it offers new DVDs to Netflix and Redbox. The studio 36 36
    • TV Over the Internet • Hulu / Hulu+ • Netflix • Vudu (Wallmart) • Amazon Prime • iTunes 37 37
    • lf GEtEs,r FRtDAy, ApRt[ 13, 2097, l VARI i,r.-i.frr,;:i,#r,*iii.:1it:.:.fii: iiii*i,ilF,ilifiiii{i.l,irl:iililiiS!ii;1tii $illll::flf![il:!$ $OBSBIOuau r $ uuu uru UI BID rrYD H unveils portal Net rlitt Web partnersh i q ByBEilFRITZ I video or communitysitesgeftingtheir first premium I content,including Bebo, Brightcove,CNE! Com- ti CBS Corp. has unveileda broadarrayof online I cast,Joost,Nefvibes,Sling Media andVeoh. ;s distributionpartnerships forgedin thepastfew weeks | "I dont think the world needs portal;CBS another ili venture to put their con- and News Corp. The two $ tent on theNet. plan to build their own il The Eye haslandedall video portal on the Webin the ma_ror Donars rnar tn" aocunonro worrung u,lth a ,tou L ano rc+S uot_o. E rvanenv olnalmers. ceot lbr NlySoace.*hi.h adcied."Bur we rhoughr- ri tutuiro-ou",.o-*,rnu *J-.";if,;;;g"ar..ii --.-;-...-----;;l-..-;._.,=.,--:;J.:"-... ncl5tnatafcc|tncr,n-nu||I|)geInerallTneSenar. iaili:tt irtr1li,8,irliil.uilililtll]irl i::liii.:ii;i.itiitli:riilifii.i;iiij;iiflriilliti,ii,Stuart W.Volkow 2007 38
    • 39 39
    • 40 40
    • ✦ 23 million Subscribers✦> 20,000 Instant Streaming Films and TV Shows✦ Releases often before Blu-Ray✦ $2 Billion on Movie Rights by 2011✦ Epix✦ Trouble with STARZ and other Producers✦ 200 plus Netflix enabled products that will result in 60 million plus devices sold in 2010 41 41
    • This isn’t a subscription service. It’s on-demand with rentals available from $1 to $5.99 and purchases starting at $4.99.42 42
    • new pricing, variations on old models 43 43
    • iTunes 44 44
    • 45 45
    • Amazon 46 46
    • 47 47
    • YouTube: Movies, TV, Storehttp://www.youtube.com/shows 48 48
    • US Networks Hedge The Internet 49
    • 50
    • ?51 51
    • 52 52
    • Internet Direct • New Platforms • Content Networks • Youtube Channels • Youtube Stars 53 53
    • TV (STB) Software F A I L1.2 million users (CEO Avner Ronen) 54 54
    • 55 55
    • Internet Content NetworksCopyright 2011 Stuart Wayne Volkow. Xtropia Partners 56
    • 57 57
    • http://blip.tv/58 58
    • Copyright 2011, Stuart W.Volkow. Xtropia Partners 59
    • T V S P O RT S O V E R T H E I N T E R N E T 60 60
    • http://www.nba.com/leaguepass/broadband/index.html 61 61
    • 62 62
    • Subscriptions Advertising Stuart W.Volkow 2007 63 63
    • CommerceStuart W.Volkow 2007 64 64
    • Youtube Stars 65 65
    • Creators of LG15 Mesh Flinders Miles Beckett66 66
    • 67 67
    • Br and Integr ation and Brand Channels 68 68
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    • Branded Channels www.myxenergy.comStuart W. Volkow, Copyright 2011 71 71
    • iTV - CommerceCopyright, Stuart W.Volkow 2011 72
    • TV A p p s /Widgets 73 73
    • 74
    • VUDU Apps - Theapplications platformfor connected TVs andBlu-ray players 75 75
    • 76 76
    • Google TV Apps 77 77
    • http://connectedtv.yahoo.com/services/tv-widgets/ 78 78
    • Mobile79 79
    • 80 80
    • Personalization and Recommendation Sifting Through Endless Choice 81 81
    • 82 82
    • 83 83
    • Jim Lanzone, Founder-CEO Clicker "We were looking at the next 50 years of television, and how it was merging with the Internet," says Lanzone, Clickers CEO and co- founder. "How would you navigate all of that? A daily calendar wouldnt cut it anymore, which is what programming guides were in the previous 50 years. ... It would need to be a lot more like a search engine."1 million TV episodes and 2million monthly visitors. 84 84
    • 85 85
    • 86
    • http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-P0tkjkSO20&feature=player_embedded 87 87
    • 88
    • Social TV 89 89
    • Over 66 million US consumers are simultaneouslyusing a PC while watching TV. 90 90
    • “Already more than half of Americans arewatching TV and surfing the Websimultaneously. But another trend--givingconnectivity to the device itself--is going tofundamentally change the business modelsaround television and the way we consumeand interact with content.”Adam Ostrow, 10.12.10 91 91
    • According to Nielsen, over 70% oftablet owners and 68% ofSmartphone owners say they usetheir devices while watching TV –much of the time to look up contentabout a show, piece of news, thatthey are watching. 92 92
    • 93 93
    • IntoNow Social Checkinhttp://youtu.be/GmEiE4qcV3k 94 94
    • Real time or near real time two screen or three screen interaction 95
    • 96 96
    • 97 97
    • 98 98
    • 99 99
    • 100 100
    • 101 101
    • 102 102
    • http://twitter.com/ betty_draper 103 103
    • 104 104
    • Social Games 105
    • Conclusions• TV Business Models Must Change• Ad Sales will get tougher - Slow or No Growth• More competition for audience• Growth is international• Internet integration necessary• Make all programming social and interactive• Work harder to make less $$ in the near term 106