DigiWorld                 Yearbook 2012                 12th edition                 Presentation                 Moscow –...
Agenda Introduction         • DigiWorld Institute: who are we? The DigiWorld in 2012         • Geographic and sectorial ...
DigiWorld InstituteWho we are               Copyright © IDATE 2012
From IDATE to DigiWorld Institute?Founded in 1977, IDATE has gained a reputation as a leader in tracking telecom,Internet ...
Where we stand in the marketplace                                              Top-tier consultancy#1 catalogue of        ...
Annual program for the DigiWorld InstituteDigiWorld             Club                                  Club              Cl...
DigiWorld YearbookThe 2012 report, available in French and English, is presented in Paris,Brussels, London and, for the fi...
The DigiWorld Yearbook is published with the supportof DigiWorld Institute members                      Copyright © IDATE ...
The DigiWorld in 2012Geographic and sectorial trends                  Copyright © IDATE 2012
A 3,069-billion market in 2011, with a 4.3% growth• 3 percentage points lower than global GDP growth• 2.7% increase in the...
North America still leading…but Asia and the Pacific are risingDistribution of DigiWorld markets                          ...
After the 2010 recovery, moderate growth in 2011 ; verycontrasted by sector• Strong growth in the equipment market (8% for...
Growth driven by equipment (except for CE)...but a services market still highly dominantGlobal DigiWorld market growth    ...
The DigiWorld trends: New Internet markets versustraditional markets services   Growth       rate 2010-2011             eB...
The DigiWorld in 2012The Game Changers                Copyright © IDATE 2012
1. Will the devices be king? OS and mobilesSource: IDATE                       Copyright © IDATE 2012
2. The Game ChangersA new stage for the Internet and digital economy, driven by a combinationof Mobile, Cloud and Big Data...
3. The Internet Giants’ Business ModelsSource: IDATE18                    Copyright © IDATE 2012
4. Troubled times for telecoms in Europe      Annual growth of the mobile services market in Europe (EU-27) and the U.S.  ...
5. But still room for growth in Russia (1)Telecom service revenues x6 over the last 10 years…                   Growth of ...
5. But still room for growth in Russia (2)Subscriber bases have expanded very rapidly, notably in mobile…                 ...
5. But still room for growth in Russia (3)4 Russian groups in the world top 50 telcos in 2011        World top telcos in 2...
Telcos facing the CAPEX challengeHuge amounts of money to be spent in NGAdeployments                 Copyright © IDATE 2012
Clear need for telcos to invest in NGNTraffic growing but not                        Gap between revenue and traffic growt...
Telcos facing the CAPEX challengeNetwork sharing can help                  Copyright © IDATE 2012
Network sharing an economic imperative for telcosNetwork sharing between two or more operators naturally affectsinfrastruc...
Open access network becoming a business reference model (1)An open access network involves the separation of physical netw...
Open access network becoming a business reference model (2)Open access networks are especially well suited to rural areas ...
Thank you!Join us on:                          Didier POUILLOT                                     Head of Telecom Strateg...
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Transcript of "8 pouillot dwy 2012_moscow_last"

  1. 1. DigiWorld Yearbook 2012 12th edition Presentation Moscow – Oct. 4, 2012Copyright © IDATE 2012
  2. 2. Agenda Introduction • DigiWorld Institute: who are we? The DigiWorld in 2012 • Geographic and sectorial trends • The Game Changers Telcos faced with the CAPEX challenge • Huge amounts of money to be spent in NGA deployments • Network sharing can help All rights reserved. None of the contents of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system or transmitted in any form, including electronically, without the prior written permission of DigiWorld Institute by IDATE. IDATE, DigiWorld, DigiWorld Institute and DigiWorld Yearbook are international trademarks of IDATE2 Copyright © IDATE 2012
  3. 3. DigiWorld InstituteWho we are Copyright © IDATE 2012
  4. 4. From IDATE to DigiWorld Institute?Founded in 1977, IDATE has gained a reputation as a leader in tracking telecom,Internet and media markets, thanks to the skills of our teams of specializedanalysts.Now, with the support of close to 40 member companies – which include many of thedigital economy’s most influential players – the newly rebranded DigiWorld Institute hasentered into a new stage of its development, structured around three main areas ofactivity: Business units Telecoms Strategies Internet TV & digital Regional Content development IDATE Consulting IDATE Research DigiWorld Institute• Time-tested analysis and consultancy Our expertise and client list > Consulting• An independent observatory Our catalogue of reports > Research• A European forum open on the world Our annual programme > DigiWorld Institute4 Copyright © IDATE 2012
  5. 5. Where we stand in the marketplace Top-tier consultancy#1 catalogue of and policy advisory forindependent market governments and localreports in Europe authorities #1 think tank on the digital economy in Europe Copyright © IDATE 2012
  6. 6. Annual program for the DigiWorld InstituteDigiWorld Club Club ClubClubs in Paris in London in Brussels (monthly) (monthly) (monthly)DigiWorld 3 conferences Transatlantic DigiWorldEvents in Paris Dialogue Summit 2012 (Columbia University)DigiWorld DigiWorld DigiWorldPublishing Catalogue of Economic Journal Yearbook market studies (Communications & Strategies)DigiWorld Content Next Gen Access SmartCollaborative Cloud distribution & Networks & Digital CityResearch 6 Copyright © IDATE 2012
  7. 7. DigiWorld YearbookThe 2012 report, available in French and English, is presented in Paris,Brussels, London and, for the first time this year, in Casablanca and inMoscow.An iPad version is availablein association with:7 Copyright © IDATE 2012
  8. 8. The DigiWorld Yearbook is published with the supportof DigiWorld Institute members Copyright © IDATE 2012
  9. 9. The DigiWorld in 2012Geographic and sectorial trends Copyright © IDATE 2012
  10. 10. A 3,069-billion market in 2011, with a 4.3% growth• 3 percentage points lower than global GDP growth• 2.7% increase in the U.S., less than 1% in Europe• Emerging markets remain the most dynamic markets ... still developed markets weigh more than 2/3 of total world sales Digiworld markets by region Copyright © IDATE 2012
  11. 11. North America still leading…but Asia and the Pacific are risingDistribution of DigiWorld markets Contribution to market growthby region, 2011 by region Source: IDATE Copyright © IDATE 2012
  12. 12. After the 2010 recovery, moderate growth in 2011 ; verycontrasted by sector• Strong growth in the equipment market (8% for telecom, 7% for IT) except for consumer electronics• Lower growth in services, from 3% for telecoms to 5% for TV Global Digiworld market by sector Copyright © IDATE 2012
  13. 13. Growth driven by equipment (except for CE)...but a services market still highly dominantGlobal DigiWorld market growth Breakdown of global DigiWorld marketsby sector by sector, in 2011 Source: IDATE Copyright © IDATE 2012
  14. 14. The DigiWorld trends: New Internet markets versustraditional markets services Growth rate 2010-2011 eBook +100% (0.5 Bn, +280%) Online Video (1.4 Bn, +63%) Social+50 to 70% Networks (1.3 Bn, +53%) Cloud (7.4 Bn, +30%) eCommerce Mobile Apps+20 to 50% (1 Bn, +42%) Online Gaming (244 Bn, +15%) (3.5 Bn, +25%) M2M Software & IT+10 to 20% Search Music (1.5 Bn, +17%) (8 Bn, +15%) services (0.8 Bn, +13%) (217 Bn, +2.3%) Telecoms TV services services 0 to +10% (77 Bn, +2.6%) (248 Bn, -1.9%) 0 to -3% Market size 0 to 1 1 to 5 5 to 10 10 to 100 +100 2011 Traditional markets Billion Euro Internet markets Note: 2011 market figures for EU-27 Source: IDATE Copyright © IDATE 2012
  15. 15. The DigiWorld in 2012The Game Changers Copyright © IDATE 2012
  16. 16. 1. Will the devices be king? OS and mobilesSource: IDATE Copyright © IDATE 2012
  17. 17. 2. The Game ChangersA new stage for the Internet and digital economy, driven by a combinationof Mobile, Cloud and Big Data ... Smartphones-Tabs NFC-Mobile banking LTE Facebook Mobile Fixed-Mobile Mobility everywhere Multiscreen Open Data TV everywhere Smart City Streaming IaaS/PaaS/SaaS Big Data ServicesData in Motion in the cloud Analytics eAdvertising-Profiling iCloud/Google Drive/DropBox Network management-DPI-Policy Control-Charging Source: IDATE Copyright © IDATE 2012
  18. 18. 3. The Internet Giants’ Business ModelsSource: IDATE18 Copyright © IDATE 2012
  19. 19. 4. Troubled times for telecoms in Europe Annual growth of the mobile services market in Europe (EU-27) and the U.S. Source: IDATE19 Copyright © IDATE 2012
  20. 20. 5. But still room for growth in Russia (1)Telecom service revenues x6 over the last 10 years… Growth of the telecom services market in Russia (€ billion). Source: IDATE… with mobile services accounting for 60% of total20 Copyright © IDATE 2012
  21. 21. 5. But still room for growth in Russia (2)Subscriber bases have expanded very rapidly, notably in mobile… Subscriber growth in Russia (millions) Source: IDATE… and should continue to expand, notably in broadband21 Copyright © IDATE 2012
  22. 22. 5. But still room for growth in Russia (3)4 Russian groups in the world top 50 telcos in 2011 World top telcos in 2011 Rank Company Country 2011 sales (billion €) 1 NTT Japan 94 624 2 AT&T USA 91 076 3 Verizon USA 79 686 4 Telefonica Spain 62 837 5 China Mobile China 58 728 6 Deutsche Telekom Germany 58 653 7 Vodafone UK 53 547 8 France Telecom France 45 277 9 America Movil Mexico 38 480 10 KDDI Japan 32 168 … … … … 19 Vimpelcom Russia 14 562 … … … … 35 MTS Russia 8 853 … … … … 40 Rostelecom Russia 7 241 47 MegaFon Russia 5 934 Source: IDATE … … … …22 Copyright © IDATE 2012
  23. 23. Telcos facing the CAPEX challengeHuge amounts of money to be spent in NGAdeployments Copyright © IDATE 2012
  24. 24. Clear need for telcos to invest in NGNTraffic growing but not Gap between revenue and traffic growthrevenue… • Growing traffic due to increasing demand for video services • Operators need investments up to build high capacity networks… and carriers have limitedcash for spending in costlyFTTH and LTE infrastructuredeployments Source: Telecom Italia Innovative financing models required • Self-financing by staggering new network deployments • Sharing the network partly or entirely with one or more operators • Developing open access network and public-private partnership models • Outsourcing network operations to equipment vendors to lower costs24 Copyright © IDATE 2012
  25. 25. Telcos facing the CAPEX challengeNetwork sharing can help Copyright © IDATE 2012
  26. 26. Network sharing an economic imperative for telcosNetwork sharing between two or more operators naturally affectsinfrastructure costs, depending on the degree of cooperation betweenthem, by sharing: • Passive elements: masts, sites… the more sites that are shared, the greater the savings • Or active elements such as antennas (mobile) or OLT for FTTx networksNew sharing model Procurement process between France Telecom and Deutsche Telekominvolves joint networkequipment procurement, aswith Deutsche Telekom andFrance Telecom (April 2011) • DT expects to thereby save €900 million over three years and FT €400 million Source: France Telecom/Deutsche Telekom26 Copyright © IDATE 2012
  27. 27. Open access network becoming a business reference model (1)An open access network involves the separation of physical networkaccess and supply of services, in the form of: • Operator-operator relationship between private players. The network is built and managed by an operator while services to end users are delivered by one or several ISPs. This allows local ISPs to have access to the end market without significant capital outlays; • Private-public partnerships (PPP) are the most popular model. One party – generally a public entity – assumes the financial burden while the other party is responsible for the technical and operational aspects.Functional layers in an open access network Source: IDATE27 Copyright © IDATE 2012
  28. 28. Open access network becoming a business reference model (2)Open access networks are especially well suited to rural areas whereInternet service providers cannot obtain a rapid and sufficient return ontheir investment due to the high cost of fibre rollouts Main PPP for FTTH deployments around the world Country/programme National investment Per capita Type of financing (billion €) spending (€) Australia/ 30 1,429 Construction of a national open NBN access network Singapore/ 0.56 125 Construction of a national open NGN National BB Network access network France/ 2 33 Subsidy, following a local call for National ultra-fast broadband plan proposal USA/ 5.6 (only part of which is Less than 18 Subsidy, following a local call for BB Stimulus for FTTH) proposals Source: IDATE28 Copyright © IDATE 2012
  29. 29. Thank you!Join us on: Didier POUILLOT Head of Telecom Strategy BU +33 (0)4 67 14 44 18 +33 (0)6 70 70 85 86 d.pouillot@idate.org Copyright © IDATE 2012
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