The Landscape of 2021 A.D. FINAL PROJECT COMM 303-50 BILL BRANTLEY
INTRODUCTION TOCOMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGIES By: Svetlana Dimitrova Carissa Boice Ricky Price Kristy Wilkerson Ashley Williams Holly Thomas Asia Mesnae Taylor
WHAT WILL THE COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGY LANDSCAPE LOOK LIKE IN 2021 A.D?Communication technology has grown so muchover the past 10 years and it will continue togrow. By 2021 A.D. there will be a lot morethings that will be changed. Perhaps everyonewill be online all the time, and will know what acomputer is and how to use it. There will be nomore boxed software, 3-D TV will become normalfor everyone. There will be no more filingcabinets, because everything will becomputerized. Tablets may become more popularthan computers and laptops…
The communication landscape will become more portable andeverything will be connected to the internet. The development ofsmart phones and tablets has allowed individuals to take theircomputers wherever they go. They provide numerous degrees ofentertainment and social networking. If an individual wants to read abook, they can use their portable device. If they want to watch aYouTube video, they can use their portable device. If they want toupdate their Twitter, they can use their portable device.Wi-Fi and cellular internet have made accessing the entertainmentmore available. There are few places in the United States where anindividual does not have access to the internet or cell phone service.By 2021 A.D. most media technologies will begin to look the same.They will all have the feel of the internet, no matter where we usethem. They will be more interactive and just about every piece oftechnology will have a way to access the internet.
Schools will get rid of text books all togetherand perhaps E-books will be the only meansof reading… these have become more andmore popular. Instead of carrying a book foreach class, students could carry a Nook or e-reader and have a whole library at theirfingertips
The Umbrella Perspective“The use of an “umbrella” to illustrate these five factors is the result of the manner in which they were drawn on achalkboard during a lecture in 1988. The arrangement of the five attributes resembled an umbrella and the name stuck” (Grant & Meadows) In order to understand technology first you will need to understand the competing and complementary technologies and the larger social environment and within these technology exists. The umbrella perspective main focus is to describe the adaption of new technologies into society. The umbrella perspective will also help us understand communication technology.
The following levels must be examined to understand a communication technology: •Hardware-which is the communication technology itself•Software-is the messages or content of the communication technology •Organizational Infrastructure-this is the involvement in the production/distribution •Social System-the political, economic and media systems •Individual Users-consists of actual and potential And then there are factors that need to be considered within the umbrella perspective: •Enabling-makes an application of communication technology possible •Limiting-limits an application or creates a barrier•Motivating-reasons or incentives for adopting (business and user needs) •Inhibiting-disincentives for adopting (business and user needs) These factors can be identified in all of the above levels except for the hardware. Hardware can only be identified within the limiting and enabling factors and by itself hardware does not provide motivation. Motivation has to come from the software or any of the other levels.
Rogers Diffusion of InnovationDeveloped in in mid 1900s byEverett M.Rogers, the theorydescribes diffusion as theprocess by which aninnovation is communicatedthrough certain channels overtime among the members of asocial system.
Four Elements of InfluenceRogers, a professor of rural 1. The Innovationsociology, published a booktitled Diffusion of Innovationsin 1962. 2. Communication ChannelsThe book included four mainelements that influence the 3. Timespread of a new idea. 4. Social System
Decision Innovation ProcessIndividuals progress through fivestages as members of a socialsystem.1. Knowledge2. Persuasion3. Decision (Can eitherReject or Accept It)4. Implementation5. ConfirmationBy this, if the information isadopted, it spreads throughvarious communicationchannels.
Moores Innovation Adoption RatesThe rate of adoption is defined as the relative speed with which members of a social system adopt an innovation. The rates are determined by an individuals adopter category such as: 1st to adopt innovation, willing to takeInnovators risks, youngest in age, have great financial lucidity.Early Adopters 2nd fastest to adopt, high degree of opinion leadership, high social status, advance educationEarly Majority Adopt after varying degree of time.Late Majority Adopt after avg. member of society, Very skeptical, Below average social status.Laggards Last to adopt. No opinion leadership, lowest financial and social status.
Rogers Five FactorsIntrinsic Characteristics of Innovation that Influence an Individuals Decision to Adopt or Reject an Innovation FACTOR DEFINITON1. Relative advantage • How improved an innovation is over the previous generation • The level of compatibility that2. Compatibility an innovation has to be assimilated3. Complexity or Simplicity • If its too difficult an indiv. will not likely adopt it4. Trialability • How easily an innov. may be experimented with as it is being adopted.5. Observability • Extent that an innov. is visible to others.
Social SystemsDuring communication, the idea israrely evaluated from a scientificstandpoint; rather, subjectiveperceptions of the innovationinfluence diffusion.Finally, Social Systems determinefour things:1. Norms of Diffusion2. Roles of Opinion Leaders andChange Agents3. Types of Innovation Decisions4. Innovation consequences
Critical Mass Theory• The Critical Mass theory is the stage of the diffusion process that an interactive medium has to reach in order for the adoption to take off. Once it has reached the “tipping point” the product explodes. People get to know about it and hear the word of mouth and everyone wants to try it or get one.• In the future, critical mass theory will become easier to adapt to, and once something new comes out people won’t have to wait - they will just go get it. In the future, the critical mass won’t take as long to reach the diffusion process, and more likely it will explode a lot faster than before.• A good example of critical mass would be the IPAD. Now days it feels like everyone has one. It is kind of pointless and there really is no point in it or having one if you already have an IPhone and/or a computer. However once it reached the diffusion process everyone got one, but later on most people rarely even used it.• In the future, critical mass theory will become more dominate and make new products more widespread, because of the way technology is growing.
Uses and Gratifications Theory• This theory focuses on what users want out of their technology. It states that they will seek technologies that satisfy their needs. This theory deals with why people choose certain media technologies over others. The textbook Communication Technology Update and Fundamentals says that “people watch television for information, relaxation, to pass time, by habit, excitement, and for social utility (Rubin, 2002.)” This theory can also be used to compare different media technology based on why people use them.• How does Uses and Gratifications Theory support this vision?• Uses and Gratifications Theory states that people use certain technologies over others to fulfill their needs. Portable devices are able to fulfill nearly every need a person has in a communication technology. This is mostly due to the internet and the variety of content available online. Thus nearly every technology will have a way to connect to the internet in order to satisfy the ever growing desire of consumers to stay constantly connected to others.
Media System Dependency Theory• The Media System Dependency Theory is a theory that tries to explain the role of media in a society. Television is a media that is dependent on. We use television to obtain information from around, watch television shows, and movies. In 2021, television technology will be so realistic that you won’t know its television. We will continue to depend on television to keep us informed on new technologies. Commercials will continue to advertise new technology as it becomes available. Another dependency would be cell phones. People depend on cell phones to obtain information whether it is phone call, text, internet or news.
Social Learning Theory/Social Cognitive Theory• People learn by watching others.• Behavior is imitated.• Reinforcement and punishment plays role.• Self-regulation is an important factor – learners believe they can perform the behavior.• Useful framework for examining effects and communication media.• Functional and dysfunctional behavior.• Adoption of new technologies.
The Theory of the Long Tail• The Theory of the Long Tail is a theory that explains how our culture and society shifts from mass markets to narrow interests.• People are now able to enjoy themselves based off their interests versus the interest of programming which is conducted by the thought of what they think the people like instead of what the people actually want.• Infinite Shelf space effect is a new distribution mechanism for P2P networks, digital downloading, and streaming which have taken the place of retail and broadcast media.• The long tail seems as if niches are fragments of mass media, which in turn will be co-categorized long tails of the masses.• We have access to more media now that there are niches but we are paying less for the privilege versus having “hits” where consumptions were not all that accessible or easy to find or free.
• Long Tail is the driving force for expansion in media and multimedia so businesses have to catch up. = Yellow Curve = non-hits, or niches (new growth present & future)• Vertical axis is sales and the horizontal axis is products. The red part is the hits (market domination). Millions of niches from virtual stock is the Long Tail = infinite choices. Technology has made the long tail theory effective because consumers are able to easily find niche products. The standard demand curve can apply to all industries.
The Principle of Relative ConstancyThe Principle of Relative Constancy theory is explained as a theorythat explains what happens to technologies as newer onesbecome available. A good example is a VCR. All movies were onVHS tapes and played in VCR’s. Over time, VHS’s turned into DVD’sand DVD’s into Blue Ray. Now we continue on to Netflix. I can’timagine what else could become of videos. VHS’s have faded out,DVD’s not so much. I do believe the technologies such as E-bookswill fade textbooks out. There will not be a such thing as regularcell phones. All cell phones will be smart phones with Internet,text messaging, mobile television and satellite radio equipped.Eventually cell phones will combine all of our accessoriestogether. We will no longer need portable DVD players, I-pods, orlaptops.
Communication Technologies The main three communication technologies are cell phones, Facebook, and computers. Cell phones are big part of communication people have their email on theirphones, you can text message or talk any time. Also on all the smart phones you can surf the web or play games, etc it is basically a computer in your pocket, however there used to be no cell phones, but today we all act like we could not live without them. Facebook has become a really big social networking website that a lot of people communicate with throughinviting people places, or finding old friends, or just to chat and see how someone is doing. Overall Facebook is neat, but it is very over rated and some people spend way too much time on it.Computers are also a big part of our everyday lives, people use them for work/email or for school or to communicate with people that are far away.
The Growing Technology• Cars are yet to change in the future. There could be auto- adjust mirrors, seats and steering wheels based on who enters the car, memorize your seat and make your car the way you want to. Imagine a car with skin that fits your desire, that moves… a car that has motion! It switches automatically, a car that adapts to a specific user’s habits and behaviors. A car with it’s own attitude, thinking flexible, backing flexible…