(Agile) planning and estimation How to plan the flight of a bird?

Planning, what is it? Estimation The art of guessing what the amount of time will be for a certain activity Planning The act of scheduling activities over resources and time in order to meet a certain deadline. “ Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future. ” Niels Bohr

Estimation

The art of guessing what the amount of time will be for a certain activity

Planning

The act of scheduling activities over resources and time in order to meet a certain deadline.

The planning onion

The ultimate goal?

Goals of planning Reducing Risk Reducing Uncertainty Supporting Better Decision Making Establishing Trust Conveying Information

Reducing Risk

Reducing Uncertainty

Supporting Better Decision Making

Establishing Trust

Conveying Information

Estimating Guessing the complexity and duration of a task/feature

Guessing the complexity and duration of a task/feature

Estimating: complexity Estimating on a relative scale! We (humans) are good at relative estimating 1 or 2, 5 or 10? Example:

Estimating on a relative scale!

We (humans) are good at relative estimating

1 or 2, 5 or 10?

Example:

Estimating: relative estimates Points are an abstract representation of size, which includes complexity, effort etc. Scales often used: Fibonacci scale: 1,1,2,3,5,8,13,21,… Linear scale: 1,2,3,4,… T-shirt sizes: S,M,L,XL

Points are an abstract representation of size, which includes complexity, effort etc.

Scales often used:

Fibonacci scale: 1,1,2,3,5,8,13,21,…

Linear scale: 1,2,3,4,…

T-shirt sizes: S,M,L,XL

Estimating: relative points Points do not have units(!) Points are not directly related to hours or days So why use them, if we need to plan on time? How can we use an abstract concept to derive durations?

Points do not have units(!)

Points are not directly related to hours or days

So why use them, if we need to plan on time?

How can we use an abstract concept to derive durations?

Points: an example Dog-points: The height of a dog from the ground to the shoulder. Assign dog-points to the following breeds: Labrador retriever Terrier Great Dane (Deense dog) Poodle Dachshund German Sheppard (Duitse herder) St. Bernard Bulldog

Dog-points:

The height of a dog from the ground to the shoulder.

Assign dog-points to the following breeds:

Labrador retriever

Terrier

Great Dane (Deense dog)

Poodle

Dachshund

German Sheppard (Duitse herder)

St. Bernard

Bulldog

A possible result… What did you choose as a basis, where are your dog-points relative to? 3 Bulldog 9 Saint Bernard 5 German Sheppard 1 Dachshund 3 Poodle 10 Great Dane 3 Terrier 5 Labrador Retriever Dog-points Breed

Important: Context! The context of the estimating in points determines the outcome. What if we chose another dog in the previous example?

The context of the estimating in points determines the outcome.

What if we chose another dog in the previous example?

From points to time Remember the dogs? Pick a “known” task as a basis, and extrapolate. This is in IDEAL-time

Remember the dogs?

Pick a “known” task as a basis, and extrapolate.

This is in IDEAL-time

Now estimate these (in ideal time)

So we are done now? We have a list of features expressed in ideal-time.

We have a list of features expressed in ideal-time.

Two problems remain Where do we get the complexity points from? Single source is bad (less context) Who has the most experience? The implementors! Converting ideal-time to lead-time Assigning Priority Business value first! Technical complexity

Where do we get the complexity points from?

Single source is bad (less context)

Who has the most experience?

The implementors!

Converting ideal-time to lead-time

Assigning Priority

Business value first!

Technical complexity

Getting complexity points A tool is PLANNING POKER

A tool is PLANNING POKER

Intermezzo: Agile principles Collaborate Learn Speculate

Planning Poker To determine Estimates By builders/implementors Reaching consensus FAST! Gain relative effort estimations Speculate Collaborate

To determine Estimates

By builders/implementors

Reaching consensus FAST!

Gain relative effort estimations

Result Clear, Consise, tasks Relative effort Not: hours/days of work! 1 Task 15 8 Task 14 5 Task 13 3 Task 12 2 Task 11 2 Task 10 1 Task 9 13 Task 8 5 Task 7 2 Task 6 2 Task 5 5 Task 4 2 Task 3 3 Task 2 1 Task 1

Planning poker, the mechanics – the cards People are good at estmating within an order of magnitude. Remember the ranges? Dog-points?

People are good at estmating within an order of magnitude.

Remember the ranges? Dog-points?

Planning poker --- preparations We need: A prioritized list of features or tasks. An analist or business-person to elaborate on the tasks.

We need:

A prioritized list of features or tasks.

An analist or business-person to elaborate on the tasks.

Planning poker --- A round of play Per task: Each person in the group shows his/her estimation at the same time, don’t think to long about it. The highest and lowest scores elaborate on their choice (short!) If needed, a short discussion about the values follows Repeat the steps above until consensus is reached Important: don’t give any information about your estimate before showing the card!

Per task:

Each person in the group shows his/her estimation at the same time, don’t think to long about it.

The highest and lowest scores elaborate on their choice (short!)

If needed, a short discussion about the values follows

Repeat the steps above until consensus is reached

Planning Filling the box…

Planning Several techniques Planning tasks and dependencies Planning milestones Linear planning Gantt-charts Time-boxing Iterative

Several techniques

Planning tasks and dependencies

Planning milestones

Linear planning

Gantt-charts

Time-boxing

Iterative

Focus on: time-boxed planning A Time-box is a fixed period of time. During this time we can work on implementing features (and preferably nothing else..) A typical time-box is between 2 weeks and 2 months. Time-boxes are also called iterations

A Time-box is a fixed period of time. During this time we can work on implementing features (and preferably nothing else..)

A typical time-box is between 2 weeks and 2 months.

Time-boxes are also called iterations

Planning with time-boxes Input: Desired end-date Prioritized list of features “ average speed of implementation” Output:

Input:

Desired end-date

Prioritized list of features

“ average speed of implementation”

Output:

Nr. Of items can grow between time-boxes

Speculate Collaborate Learn

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