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Ppm187 politicoreport

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  • 1. POWER AND THE PEOPLE A POLITICO POLL SERIES, SPONSORED BY QUALCOMM DECEMBER 15, 2010METHODOLOGYOn December 3-8, Penn Schoen Berland surveyed 1,000 people in the U.S. with a representative distribution of Americans and 225 Washington D.C. Elites. Margin of error is 3.1%and 6.53% respectively. 1
  • 2. POLITICO BaselineIn general, do you believe thatthings in the country are headed Gen Gen Gen DC DC DCin the right direction or are they Gen Pop Gen Pop Pop Gen Pop Pop Pop DC Elites DC Elites Elites DC Elites Elites Elites GP GPoff on the wrong track? December November October September August July December November October September August July Dem Rep GP IndRight direction 26 28 26 27 32 27 32 38 41 47 45 49 42 15 19Wrong track 60 59 61 61 58 61 58 51 54 49 49 45 37 80 64Dont know 15 13 13 11 11 12 10 11 5 4 6 6 21 5 17In general, do you believe that theeconomy nationwide is headed in Gen Gen Gen DC DC DCthe right direction or is it off on Gen Pop Gen Pop Pop Gen Pop Pop Pop DC Elites DC Elites Elites DC Elites Elites Elites GP GPthe wrong track? December November October September August July December November October September August July Dem Rep GP IndRight direction 26 29 27 24 32 24 38 47 40 43 46 44 41 13 22Wrong track 59 58 59 64 57 65 51 43 49 48 44 46 39 79 60Dont know 16 14 14 12 12 11 11 10 11 9 10 10 20 8 18How much do you feel the Gen Gen Gen DC DC DCcurrent economic downturn Gen Pop Gen Pop Pop Gen Pop Pop Pop DC Elites DC Elites Elites DC Elites Elites Elites GPhas affected you? December November October September August July December November October September August July Dem GP Rep GP IndMore than most Americans 23 22 25 23 24 27 4 4 4 5 8 6 25 22 20Less than most Americans 24 28 27 27 26 24 73 75 73 74 64 74 23 28 21About the same as others 49 46 46 47 48 47 22 20 23 20 28 20 46 48 53Don’t know 4 3 3 3 2 3 0 1 0 0 0 0 6 2 6Do you think the political Gen Gen Gen DC DC DCsystem in Washington Gen Pop Gen Pop Pop Gen Pop Pop Pop DC Elites DC Elites Elites DC Elites Elites ElitesD.C. is broken? December November October September August July December November October September August July GP Dem GP Rep GP IndYes, it is broken 69 70 74 72 72 72 75 67 68 62 73 64 61 77 71No, it is not broken 15 14 14 15 17 15 20 28 30 34 23 31 19 14 12Don’t know 15 16 12 13 11 13 5 5 2 4 4 5 20 9 17 Gen Gen Gen DC DC DCWhich is closest to your Gen Pop Gen Pop Pop Gen Pop Pop Pop DC Elites DC Elites Elites DC Elites Elites Elitesviews? December November October September August July December November October September August July GP Dem GP Rep GP IndThe Tea Party Movement isa fad - it will go away soon 28 29 26 28 28 26 70 70 67 70 60 68 10 41 17enoughI don’t know what the TeaParty Movement is well 30 25 33 30 34 31 7 9 9 6 12 11 39 21 25enough to sayThe Tea Party Movementwill become a viable third 22 25 20 20 24 24 14 13 13 11 11 11 31 23 35party in American politicsDon’t Know 20 21 20 22 17 19 9 8 10 12 13 10 20 16 24 2
  • 3. Overall, how Gen Pop Gen Pop Gen Pop Gen Pop Gen Pop Gen Pop DC Elites DC Elites DC Elites DC Elites DC Elites DC Elitesfavorable are December November October September August July December November October Sept. August Julyyou towards Fav / Fav / Fav / Fav / Fav / Fav / Fav /the following Very Unfav / Very Fav / Unfav Very Fav / Unfav Very Fav / Very Fav / Unfav Very Fav / Unfav Very Unfav / Unfav / Unfav / Unfav / Unfav / Unfav /people? fav DK fav / DK fav / DK fav Unfav / DK fav / DK fav / DK fav DK VF DK VF DK VF DK VF DK VF DKBarack Obama 22 47/48/5 24 45/47/8 24 46/47/6 26 48/48/4 28 51/46/4 25 48/47/5 29 66/33/2 32 64/36/0 35 61/37/1 35 64/35/1 32 66/33/0 36 66/34/0Hillary Clinton 22 55/38/7 22 53/40/8 21 52/39/9 20 51/42/6 21 53/41/7 20 49/45/6 29 74/25/0 33 68/31/0 34 68/30/3 33 72/28/1 32 68/32/0 34 74/25/1George W. Bush 16 38/54/8 14 38/54/8 14 39/52/9 15 44/50/6 14 37/57/6 14 38/54/7 8 26/74/0 8 26/72/2 12 30/67/2 8 24/72/4 6 31/68/0 7 24/74/1Sarah Palin 14 36/53/10 14 36/53/12 14 36/53/11 15 41/50/9 14 35/57/8 14 39/53/8 5 14/84/1 2 14/85/2 4 22/75/3 3 15/82/2 4 18/80/1 3 16/82/2John McCain 11 41/47/12 11 43/46/10 12 44/46/11 13 47/44/10 11 41/50/10 13 43/48/10 5 34/65/0 7 40/59/1 11 39/58/3 8 41/57/1 6 42/57/1 6 39/60/1Joe Biden 10 35/45/21 12 38/46/17 10 37/46/16 11 39/46/15 10 39/45/16 10 37/49/13 19 62/36/2 19 61/37/1 18 56/42/2 20 58/39/2 20 57/39/4 21 58/40/2Mike Huckabee 10 32/30/37 11 33/33/34 11 35/29/36 14 37/28/36 11 33/31/36 11 36/29/34 5 27/64/10 3 29/66/5 6 30/56/14 5 32/59/10 6 33/54/13 3 26/63/13Mitt Romney 8 29/33/38 5 26/36/37 8 31/35/35 12 34/32/34 7 29/33/37 9 30/35/34 8 29/61/10 5 34/60/6 11 35/56/10 6 34/57/8 5 33/56/11 4 32/60/8Nancy Pelosi 7 24/50/25 6 24/52/24 7 24/52/24 7 26/48/26 7 25/50/25 5 23/52/25 10 40/58/2 13 42/56/1 12 40/56/3 12 42/53/5 12 44/52/4 12 45/52/3Harry Reid 5 16/34/49 4 17/37/46 3 13/35/51 4 14/32/54 3 14/35/52 3 15/34/51 6 35/53/12 4 40/48/12 3 33/56/11 6 39/47/13 6 34/47/20 5 38/53/10John Boehner 5 18/23/59 6 18/25/56 5 17/22/61 5 16/20/64 4 12/21/67 4 16/21/63 9 23/57/20 4 26/60/13 4 22/58/21 5 20/58/22 4 20/49/31 1 17/55/28Haley Barbour 4 10/20/71 4 12/18/70 4 12/17/71 4 13/17/71 2 10/18/73 3 11/19/70 3 17/46/36 6 24/45/32 8 23/40/37 4 23/42/36 4 18/37/46 3 20/35/45Mitch McConnell 3 13/24/63 3 13/26/60 3 14/26/60 5 16/21/63 3 12/25/63 2 13/23/64 5 18/60/21 2 20/58/22 4 23/50/27 2 19/58/23 4 21/50/28 2 21/53/27Tim Pawlenty 3 11/18/71 3 14/20/67 4 12/17/71 5 16/15/70 3 11/17/72 3 12/18/69 5 23/31/46 2 24/33/42 4 21/36/43 4 21/39/39 6 26/26/48 2 17/34/50U.S. Congress 3 19/67/14 2 21/63/16 4 23/65/13 5 25/61/14 4 24/66/9 5 25/64/11 1 19/78/2 0 25/74/1 0 22/75/2 1 28/70/2 2 31/68/0 3 29/69/1Michael Steele 2 11/25/64 2 11/26/62 3 13/25/63 3 14/23/64 2 11/25/64 1 11/29/59 1 12/76/12 2 20/69/11 2 19/66/15 2 12/73/15 1 16/64/20 0 11/74/15Tim Kaine 2 10/16/74 1 8/21/71 3 11/16/73 3 11/17/73 2 10/15/75 2 10/16/73 14 45/36/18 11 51/25/24 9 40/34/26 12 52/27/21 8 41/27/32 12 52/30/18 3
  • 4. If Barack Obama runs for re-election in 2012, in general,are you more likely to vote forPresident Obama or for the Gen Gen DC DC DCRepublican Party’s candidate Gen Pop Gen Pop Gen Pop Gen Pop Pop Pop DC Elites DC Elites Elites DC Elites Elites Elites GP GPfor president? December November October September August July December November October September August July Dem Rep GP IndThe Republican Candidate 38 40 40 43 40 42 27 29 36 30 32 28 6 84 28Barack Obama 37 37 39 35 38 37 57 58 52 55 50 56 73 6 29Other 4 4 3 3 4 4 2 3 4 2 3 2 2 1 10Don’t know 21 20 18 19 19 18 14 9 9 13 15 14 19 9 33If the 2012 Presidential election Gen Gen Gen DC DC DCwere held today, who would you be Gen Pop Gen Pop Pop Gen Pop Pop Pop DC Elites DC Elites Elites DC Elites Elites Elites GP GP GPmore likely to vote for? December November October September August July December November October September August July Dem Rep IndBarack Obama 48 46 50 45 50 48 74 73 67 71 70 73 82 13 47Sarah Palin 33 33 35 37 33 36 16 13 21 16 17 17 8 71 23Don’t know 18 20 15 18 17 16 10 14 12 13 13 10 10 16 30If the 2012 Presidential election Gen Gen Gen DC DC DCwere held today, who would you be Gen Pop Gen Pop Pop Gen Pop Pop Pop DC Elites DC Elites Elites DC Elites Elites Elites GP GP GPmore likely to vote for? December November October September August July December November October September August July Dem Rep IndBarack Obama 40 40 41 38 42 39 60 62 57 59 57 63 76 8 33Mitt Romney 33 32 34 38 33 35 29 33 36 30 32 26 6 71 26Don’t know 27 28 25 24 24 26 11 5 7 12 12 11 18 21 41If the 2012 Presidential election Gen Gen Gen DC DC DCwere held today, who would you be Gen Pop Gen Pop Pop Gen Pop Pop Pop DC Elites DC Elites Elites DC Elites Elites Elites GP GP GPmore likely to vote for? December November October September August July December November October September August July Dem Rep IndBarack Obama 39 39 41 40 42 39 60 65 55 59 52 60 73 7 35Tim Pawlenty 22 21 21 26 23 21 23 20 26 21 22 19 5 50 14Don’t know 38 40 38 34 35 40 17 15 19 19 26 22 22 43 51If the 2012 Presidential election Gen Gen Gen DC DCwere held today, who would you be Gen Pop Gen Pop Pop Gen Pop Pop Pop DC Elites DC Elites DC Elites DC Elites Elites Elites GP GP GPmore likely to vote for? December November October September August July December November October September August July Dem Rep IndBarack Obama 40 40 41 40 43 39 60 66 68 64 60 65 76 6 35Mike Huckabee 34 34 35 38 35 35 29 24 22 25 27 23 7 74 25Don’t know 26 26 23 22 22 25 11 10 10 11 14 12 17 21 40If the 2012 Presidential election Gen Gen Gen DC DC DCwere held today, who would you be Gen Pop Gen Pop Pop Gen Pop Pop Pop DC Elites DC Elites Elites DC Elites Elites Elites GP GP GPmore likely to vote for? December November October September August July December November October September August July Dem Rep IndBarack Obama 40 40 40 38 43 39 58 66 56 57 56 60 74 7 35Haley Barbour 19 20 19 24 21 21 20 20 24 23 21 19 4 44 12Don’t know 41 40 41 38 36 40 22 14 20 20 23 22 23 49 53 4
  • 5. CURRENT EVENTSWhich ofthese best Gen Pop Gen Pop Gen Pop Gen Pop Gen Pop DC Elites DC Elites DC Elites DC Elites DC Elitesdescribes December November October September August December November October September August GP Dem GP Rep GP Indhow closelyyou havebeenfollowingeach of theseevents / Closely Closely / Closely Closely Closely Closely Closely / Closely Closely Closely Closely Closely / Closely / Very / Not Very Not Very / Not Very / Not Very / Not Very / Not Very Not Very / Not Very / Not Very / Not Very / Not Very Not Very Notissues? closely closely closely closely closely closely closely closely closely closely closely closely closely closely closely closely closely closely closely closely closely closely closely closely closely closelyState of the U.S.economy 36 78/17 41 82/15 44 80/17 48 82/16 N/A N/A 59 97/2 57 96/0 70 98/3 67 97/3 N/A N/A 38 79/17 40 86/12 30 70/23Terrorist threatsto the United 25 66/30 28 70/26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 36 81/19 46 88/11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 26 65/31 31 75/21 19 57/37StatesExpiration ofBush tax cuts 23 58/35 24 55/40 24 53/40 23 55/41 18 47/47 48 84/16 43 84/16 37 78/21 40 79/20 31 68/31 21 60/35 31 66/31 17 48/41The new U.S.Congress 18 52/42 25 60/35 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 37 86/14 46 95/5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 20 56/39 24 59/37 11 43/48The push torepeal themilitary’s ‘don’t 18 50/44 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 37 80/20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 22 55/39 19 52/45 12 41/48ask, don’t tell’policyWikiLeaks’release of U.S.diplomatic 14 45/48 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 34 78/22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 13 47/45 20 48/47 9 39/48secretsThe beginningsof the 2012presidential 13 40/54 18 49/47 14 41/54 N/A N/A N/A N/A 19 53/47 25 65/34 17 57/43 N/A N/A N/A N/A 16 41/54 17 49/47 5 29/61campaignseason 5
  • 6. TOPIC INVESTIGATION – STATE OF THE UNIONWill you watch the president’s State ofthe Union address in January? Gen Pop DC Elites GP Dem GP Rep GP Ind GP Male GP FemaleYes 44 75 63 36 32 49 39No 32 11 15 42 40 34 30Don’t know 24 14 23 22 29 17 31What should be the focus of PresidentObama’s State of the Union address? Gen Pop DC Elites GP Dem GP Rep GP Ind GP Male GP FemaleImproving the economy and creating jobs 68 65 74 61 69 67 70Reducing the deficit 13 19 11 19 11 14 13Bipartisanship in Washington 4 10 2 5 4 5 2The war on terrorism 3 2 3 5 2 4 2Don’t know 11 4 10 10 14 10 13Do you think President Obama will beable to use his State of the Unionaddress to reclaim his ownership of thenational agenda? Gen Pop DC Elites GP Dem GP Rep GP Ind GP Male GP FemaleYes 27 35 47 10 21 28 25No 42 38 21 68 40 48 37Don’t know 31 27 32 22 39 24 38Do you expect the president’s State ofthe Union address to have a positiveimpact, a negative impact or no impacton your perception of President Obama? Gen Pop DC Elites GP Dem GP Rep GP Ind GP Male GP FemalePositive impact 30 36 56 11 22 32 29Negative impact 17 12 5 33 15 18 17No impact 35 38 24 43 38 36 34Don’t know 17 14 15 12 25 14 20 6
  • 7. TOPIC INVESTIGATION – THE NEW CONGRESSWhich issue should the new Gen Pop Gen Pop DC Elites DC ElitesCongress tackle first? December November December November GP Dem GP Rep GP Ind GP Male GP FemaleWork to reduce the deficit 35 36 50 46 39 29 35 34 35Repeal health care reform 26 29 11 13 11 47 22 25 27Pass another stimulus bill 18 14 20 17 26 12 17 22 15Pass energy policy legislation 6 4 13 16 8 3 7 8 4Don’t know 15 16 6 7 16 9 19 11 18Now that Republicans have gained themajority in the House of Representatives,how effective will they be in Gen Pop Gen Pop DC Elites DC Elitesimplementing their agenda? December November December November GP Dem GP Rep GP Ind GP Male GP FemaleVery effective 11 11 3 2 9 16 7 10 11Somewhat effective 35 35 36 28 25 52 28 37 33Not very effective 22 22 40 47 27 16 23 27 18Not effective at all 11 12 15 21 18 3 11 13 10Don’t know 21 20 4 2 20 13 30 13 29Are you confident that Republicans inCongress will be effective leaders? Gen Pop DC Elites GP Dem GP Rep GP Ind GP Male GP FemaleYes 28 17 12 57 17 30 26No 46 73 71 19 45 50 41Don’t know 26 10 17 24 38 20 33Which of these best describe what youhope to see from congressionalRepublicans in the next session ofCongress? Gen Pop DC Elites GP Dem GP Rep GP Ind GP Male GP FemaleWork together with President Obama and 51 74 68 32 50 51 51congressional DemocratsWork to block President Obama’s agenda 20 11 10 32 18 21 18Work to implement the Republican agenda 12 13 6 26 6 15 10Don’t know 17 2 16 10 26 13 21 7
  • 8. Which of these best describe what youhope to see from President Obama in2011? Gen Pop DC Elites GP Dem GP Rep GP Ind GP Male GP FemaleCompromise with congressional 49 59 34 71 45 54 45RepublicansFocus on pushing the White House agenda 16 31 29 6 12 17 15Block the congressional Republican 11 5 17 4 10 12 9agendaDon’t know 24 4 20 19 34 17 31With a divided government, do you thinkthere will be progress over the next twoyears in solving the nation’s problemsor will nothing get accomplished? Gen Pop DC Elites GP Dem GP Rep GP Ind GP Male GP FemaleNothing will be accomplished 44 55 39 41 51 46 42There will be progress 30 30 33 35 23 34 27Don’t know 26 15 28 24 27 21 31Do you support or oppose the repeal ofdon’t ask, don’t tell - the military’scurrent policy which bars openly gay orlesbian troops from serving? Gen Pop DC Elites GP Dem GP Rep GP Ind GP Male GP FemaleSupport the repeal 43 75 59 31 38 44 42Oppose the repeal 30 14 18 44 28 34 26Don’t know 27 11 23 26 34 22 32How would you rate President Obama’shandling of the efforts to repeal ‘don’task, don’t tell’? Gen Pop DC Elites GP Dem GP Rep GP Ind GP Male GP FemaleHe is handling it poorly 34 42 23 52 28 39 29He is handling it well 26 35 39 16 22 28 24Don’t know 40 24 38 32 50 33 47How would you rate CongressionalRepublicans’ handling of the efforts torepeal ‘don’t ask, don’t tell’? Gen Pop DC Elites GP Dem GP Rep GP Ind GP Male GP FemaleThey are handling it poorly 39 69 49 28 38 43 35They are handling it well 17 12 10 30 11 21 12Don’t know 45 19 41 42 51 36 52 8
  • 9. TOPIC INVESTIGATION – CURRENT EVENTSDo you think President Obama shouldfollow his deficit-reductioncommission’s recommendation to raisethe retirement age for Social Securityfrom 67 to 68? Gen Pop DC Elites GP Dem GP Rep GP Ind GP Male GP FemaleYes 28 70 29 28 28 33 24No 51 20 49 56 50 49 54Don’t know 20 9 22 16 22 19 22Should Julian Assange, the founder ofWikiLeaks, be prosecuted as a terroristfor publishing more than 250, 000 U.S.diplomatic cables? Gen Pop DC Elites GP Dem GP Rep GP Ind GP Male GP FemaleYes 48 49 51 59 34 49 47No 22 36 20 17 29 29 15Don’t know 30 15 29 24 37 21 38TOPIC INVESTIGATION – 2012 POTUS ELECTIONDo you think President Obama Gen Pop Gen Pop DC Elites DC Eliteswill be re-elected in 2012? December November December November GP Dem GP Rep GP Ind GP Male GP FemaleYes 28 26 38 49 50 8 23 30 25No 48 50 27 23 24 76 47 49 47Don’t know 24 25 35 28 26 16 30 21 28Do you think President Obama will face aDemocratic primary challenger in 2012? Gen Pop DC Elites GP Dem GP Rep GP Ind GP Male GP FemaleYes 51 33 50 58 46 55 48No 24 52 30 24 19 29 20Don’t know 24 16 20 18 35 16 32 9
  • 10. Who is most likely to win the Republicanpresidential nomination in 2012? Gen Pop DC Elites GP Dem GP Rep GP Ind GP Male GP FemaleSarah Palin 18 11 15 26 11 17 18Mitt Romney 13 30 11 17 11 16 10Mike Huckabee 9 6 9 12 7 9 9Newt Gingrich 3 5 2 4 2 4 2Ron Paul 2 1 3 2 2 2 2Tim Pawlenty 1 3 2 2 1 2 1Haley Barbour 1 5 0 1 1 1 1Mitch Daniels 1 3 1 0 2 2 0John Thune 1 1 1 1 1 2 0Don’t know 51 34 56 34 63 45 57How satisfied are you with the lineup ofpossible Republican presidentialcandidates thus far? Gen Pop DC Elites GP Dem GP Rep GP Ind GP Male GP FemaleVery satisfied 10 5 8 17 5 14 6Somewhat satisfied 22 19 10 43 15 23 21Somewhat dissatisfied 17 23 14 14 23 18 16Very dissatisfied 17 38 28 5 17 19 15Dont know 34 15 39 21 40 25 41Do you think Sarah Palin is qualified to bepresident? Gen Pop DC Elites GP Dem GP Rep GP Ind GP Male GP FemaleYes 23 11 8 47 17 26 21No 64 86 85 39 68 65 64Don’t know 12 4 7 15 15 9 15Do you think Sarah Palin is abreath of fresh air or a negative Gen Pop Gen Pop DC Elites DC Elitesinfluence in national politics? December November December November GP Dem GP Rep GP Ind GP Male GP FemaleNegative influence 50 50 79 77 75 20 53 50 50Breath of fresh air 34 28 15 14 15 64 25 36 33Don’t know 16 22 6 9 10 16 22 15 17 10