A Plan for Powering the World for all Purposes WithWind, Water, and Sunlight   Mark Z. Jacobson   Atmosphere/Energy Progra...
What’s the Problem? Why Act Quickly?A. Temperatures are rising rapidlyB. Arctic sea ice area is decreasing quicklyC. Air p...
Mean Global Temperature Anomalies                              Warmest years                              1. 2010/2005    ...
Arctic Sea Ice 1979-2011                                              Lowest years                                        ...
Norilsk, Russia            http://www.worldinterestingfacts.com/infrastructure/top-10-most-polluted-cities-in-the-world.html
Sukinda, India            http://www.worldinterestingfacts.com/infrastructure/top-10-most-polluted-cities-in-the-world.html
Linfen, China            http://www.worldinterestingfacts.com/infrastructure/top-10-most-polluted-cities-in-the-world.html
Asian Brown Cloud Over China                               NASA/ORBIMAGE
Lung of LA Teenage Nonsmoker in 1970s &PM Trends in California              Each 10 υg/m3 PM2.5 in yearly avg. reduces lif...
Steps for Determining Solution to Problems1. Rank energy technologies in terms ofCarbon-dioxide equivalent emissionsAir po...
Electricity/Vehicle Options Studied Electricity options              Vehicle Options Wind turbines                    Batt...
Wind Power, Wind-Driven Wave Power                   www.mywindpowersystem.com
Hydroelectric, Geothermal, Tidal Powerwww.gizmag.comwww.inhabitat.commyecoproject.orgwww.sir-ray.com
Concentrated Solar Power, PV PowerTorresolGemasolar Spain, 15 hrs storage,Matthew Wright, Beyond Zero                     ...
Electric/Hydrogen Fuel Cell VehiclesTesla Roadster all electric   Nissan Leaf all electric                                ...
Electric and Hydrogen Fuel Cell Ships &Tractors; Liquid Hydrogen Aircraft                        Ecofriend.orgZmships.euEl...
Air-Source Heat Pump, Air Source ElectricWater Heater, Solar Water Pre-HeaterMidlandpower.comConservpros.com              ...
Lifecycle CO2e of Electricity Sources                                                       Low Est.        High Est.45040...
Time Between Planning & Operation Nuclear:    10 - 19 y (life 40 y)             Site permit: 3.5 - 6 y             Constru...
CO2e From Current Power Mix due toPlanning-to-Operation Delays, Relative to Wind                                          ...
Total CO2e of Electricity Sources                                                       Low Est.        High Est.600550500...
Change in U.S. CO2 (%) From Converting toBEVs, HFCVs, or E85
Low/High U.S. Air Pollution Deaths/yr For 2020 Upon Conversion of U.S. Vehicle Fleet                                      ...
Wind FootprintsPro.corbins.com   www.eng.uoo.ca    www.npower-renewables.com                                   www.offshor...
Nuclear Footprints  wwwdelivery.superstock.com; Pro.corbis.com; Eyeball-series.org; xs124.xs.to
Area to Power 100% of U.S. Onroad Vehicles      Wind-BEVFootprint 1-2.8 km2  Turbine spacing  0.35-0.7% of US             ...
90m WRF-ARW model results        for 2010                   East Coast Offshore Wind                                   In ...
Water Consumed to Run U.S. Vehicles                  U.S. water demand = 150,000 Ggal/yr
Cleanest Solutions to Global Warming, AirPollution, Energy Security – Energy &Env. Sci, 2, 148 Electric Power          (20...
Powering the World on Renewables Global end-use power demand 2010 12.5 TW Global end-use power demand 2030 with current fu...
Number of Plants or Devices to Power World Technology             Percent Supply 2030     Number 5-MW wind turbines50% 3.8...
World Wind Speeds at 100m       90                                                                 10                     ...
World Surface SolarAll solar worldwide: 6500 TW;All solar over land in high-solar locations~ 340 TWWorld power demand 2030...
Methods of addressing variability of WWS1. Interconnecting geographically-dispersed WWS resources2. Bundling WWS resources...
Matching Hourly Demand With WWS Supply by Aggregating Sites andBundling WWS Resources – Least Cost Optimization for Califo...
Desertec           www.dw-world.de/image/0,,4470611_1,00.jpg
Reserve Base for Nd2O3 (Tg) Used in PermanentMagnets for Wind Turbine GeneratorsCountry        Reserve Base    Needed to p...
Reserve Base for Lithium (Tg) Used in BatteriesCountry      Reserve Base     Possible number of vehicles @10kg/eachU.S.0.4...
Costs of Energy, Including Transmission (¢/kWh)Energy Technology                2005-2010      2020-2030Wind onshore      ...
Long-Distance Transmission Costs (2007 $US)for Transmission 1200-2000 km                                   Low   Med      ...
Summary 2030 electricity cost 4-10¢/kWh for most, 8-13 for some WWS , vs. fossil-fuel 8 + 5.5 externality = 13.5¢/kWh Incl...
Summary, cont.Converting to Wind, Water, & Sun (WWS) and electricity/H2 willreduce global power demand by 30%Methods of ad...
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Webinar - A Plan for Powering the World for all Purposes With Wind, Water, and Sunlight

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This talk discusses a plan to power 100% of the world’s energy for all purposes with wind, water, and sunlight (WWS) within the next 20-40 years. The talk starts by reviewing and ranking major proposed energy-related solutions to global warming, air pollution mortality, and energy security while considering other impacts of the proposed solutions, such as on water supply, land use, resource availability, reliability, wildlife, and catastrophic risk. It then evaluates a scenario for powering the world on the energy options determined to be the best while also considering materials, transmission infrastructure, costs, and politics. The study concludes that powering the world with wind, water, and solar technologies, which are found to be the best when all factors are considered, is technically feasible but politically challenging.

Mark Z. Jacobson Dept. of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Stanford University. Jacobson is Director of the Atmosphere/Energy Program and Professor of Civil and Environmental Engineering at Stanford University. He is also a Courtesy Professor of Energy Resources Engineering, Senior Fellow of the Woods Institute for the Environment, and Senior Fellow of the Precourt Institute.

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Webinar - A Plan for Powering the World for all Purposes With Wind, Water, and Sunlight

  1. 1. A Plan for Powering the World for all Purposes WithWind, Water, and Sunlight Mark Z. Jacobson Atmosphere/Energy Program Dept. of Civil & Environmental Engineering Stanford University Thanks to Mark Delucchi, Cristina Archer, Elaine Hart, Mike Dvorak, Eric Stoutenburg, Bethany Corcoran, John Ten Hoeve Leonardo Energy Webinar, June 16, 2011
  2. 2. What’s the Problem? Why Act Quickly?A. Temperatures are rising rapidlyB. Arctic sea ice area is decreasing quicklyC. Air pollution mortality is one of five leading causes of death worldwide, and higher temperatures contribute to deathsD. Higher population and growing energy demand will result in worsening air pollution and climate problems over time.
  3. 3. Mean Global Temperature Anomalies Warmest years 1. 2010/2005 2. - 3. 2009 4. 2007/1998 5. - 6. 2002 7. 2003/2006 8. - 9. 2001/2004 10. - NASA GISS, 2011
  4. 4. Arctic Sea Ice 1979-2011 Lowest years 2011 1979-2000 mean 15.6 m sq km 2005 2006 2007 2009nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews
  5. 5. Norilsk, Russia http://www.worldinterestingfacts.com/infrastructure/top-10-most-polluted-cities-in-the-world.html
  6. 6. Sukinda, India http://www.worldinterestingfacts.com/infrastructure/top-10-most-polluted-cities-in-the-world.html
  7. 7. Linfen, China http://www.worldinterestingfacts.com/infrastructure/top-10-most-polluted-cities-in-the-world.html
  8. 8. Asian Brown Cloud Over China NASA/ORBIMAGE
  9. 9. Lung of LA Teenage Nonsmoker in 1970s &PM Trends in California Each 10 υg/m3 PM2.5 in yearly avg. reduces life 5-10 mon. (Pope et al., 2009); ~18,000 (5600-23,000) PM2.5 deaths/yr Calif. (ibid.); 50,000-100,000SCAQMD/CARB deaths/yr U.S.; 2.5-3 mill/yr world. Average person in big U.S. city loses 2 yrs.
  10. 10. Steps for Determining Solution to Problems1. Rank energy technologies in terms ofCarbon-dioxide equivalent emissionsAir pollution mortalityWater consumptionFootprint on the ground and total spacing requiredResource abundanceAbility to match peak demand2. Evaluate replacing 100% of energy with best technologies interms of resources, materials, matching supply, costs, politics
  11. 11. Electricity/Vehicle Options Studied Electricity options Vehicle Options Wind turbines Battery-Electric Vehicles (BEVs)Solarphotovoltaics (PV) Hydrogen Fuel Cell Vehicles (HFCVs) Geothermal power plants Corn ethanol (E85) Tidal turbines Cellulosic ethanol (E85) Wave devices Concentrated solar power (CSP) Hydroelectric power plants Nuclear power plants Coal with carbon capture and sequestration (CCS)
  12. 12. Wind Power, Wind-Driven Wave Power www.mywindpowersystem.com
  13. 13. Hydroelectric, Geothermal, Tidal Powerwww.gizmag.comwww.inhabitat.commyecoproject.orgwww.sir-ray.com
  14. 14. Concentrated Solar Power, PV PowerTorresolGemasolar Spain, 15 hrs storage,Matthew Wright, Beyond Zero www.solarthermalmagazine.com i.treehugger.com
  15. 15. Electric/Hydrogen Fuel Cell VehiclesTesla Roadster all electric Nissan Leaf all electric Tesla Model S all electric Electric truckHydrogen fuel cell bus Hydrogen fuel cell–electric hybrid bus
  16. 16. Electric and Hydrogen Fuel Cell Ships &Tractors; Liquid Hydrogen Aircraft Ecofriend.orgZmships.euElectric ship Ec.europa.eu
  17. 17. Air-Source Heat Pump, Air Source ElectricWater Heater, Solar Water Pre-HeaterMidlandpower.comConservpros.com Adaptivebuilders.com Heat pump water heater
  18. 18. Lifecycle CO2e of Electricity Sources Low Est. High Est.450400350300250200150100 50 0 Wind CSP Solar-PV Geoth Tidal Wave Hydro Nuclear Coal-CCS
  19. 19. Time Between Planning & Operation Nuclear: 10 - 19 y (life 40 y) Site permit: 3.5 - 6 y Construction permit approval and issue 2.5 - 4 y Construction time 4 - 9 years Hydroelectric: 8 - 16 y (life 80 y) Coal-CCS: 6 - 11 y (life 35 y) Geothermal: 3 - 6 y (life 35 y) Ethanol, CSP, Solar-PV, Wave, Tidal, Wind: 2 - 5 y (life 40 y)
  20. 20. CO2e From Current Power Mix due toPlanning-to-Operation Delays, Relative to Wind Low Est. High Est.150100 50 0 Wind CSP Solar-PV Geoth Tidal Wave Hydro Nuclear Coal-CCS
  21. 21. Total CO2e of Electricity Sources Low Est. High Est.600550500450400350300250200150100 50 0 Wind CSP Solar-PV Geoth Tidal Wave Hydro Nuclear Coal-CCS
  22. 22. Change in U.S. CO2 (%) From Converting toBEVs, HFCVs, or E85
  23. 23. Low/High U.S. Air Pollution Deaths/yr For 2020 Upon Conversion of U.S. Vehicle Fleet Nuclear Terrorism or War Low Est. High Est.270002400021000180001500012000 9000 6000 3000 0 Wind Wind CSP PV Geo Tidal Wave Hydro Nuclear CCS Corn Cell Gasoline BEV HFCV BEV BEV BEV BEV BEV BEV BEV BEV E85 E85
  24. 24. Wind FootprintsPro.corbins.com www.eng.uoo.ca www.npower-renewables.com www.offshore-power.netPro.corbins.com
  25. 25. Nuclear Footprints wwwdelivery.superstock.com; Pro.corbis.com; Eyeball-series.org; xs124.xs.to
  26. 26. Area to Power 100% of U.S. Onroad Vehicles Wind-BEVFootprint 1-2.8 km2 Turbine spacing 0.35-0.7% of US Nuclear-BEV 0.05-0.062% Cellulosic E85 Footprint 33% 4.7-35.4% of US of total; the rest is buffer Corn E85 9.8-17.6% of US Geoth BEV 0.006-0.008% Solar PV-BEV 0.077-0.18%
  27. 27. 90m WRF-ARW model results for 2010 East Coast Offshore Wind In areas of CF>45% (8.8-9.9 m/s) and excluding 1/3 of area 173 GW avg. power 6.5  19 GW <30 m depth 7.0  37 GW <50 m 7.5  117 GW <200 m 8.0 8.5 9.0 US electricity demand: 9.5 454 GW (EIA, 2009) 9.9 Dvorak, M.J., Corcoran, B.A., McIntyre, N.G., Jacobson, M.Z.. Offshore wind energy resource characterization of the US East Coast. In preparation.
  28. 28. Water Consumed to Run U.S. Vehicles U.S. water demand = 150,000 Ggal/yr
  29. 29. Cleanest Solutions to Global Warming, AirPollution, Energy Security – Energy &Env. Sci, 2, 148 Electric Power (2009)VehiclesRecommended – Wind, Water, Sun (WWS)1. Wind 2. CSP WWS-Battery-Electric3. Geothermal 4. Tidal WWS-Hydrogen Fuel Cell5. PV 6. Wave7. HydroelectricityNot RecommendedNuclear Corn, cellulosic, sugarcane ethanolCoal-CCS Soy, algae biodieselNatural gas, biomass Compressed natural gas
  30. 30. Powering the World on Renewables Global end-use power demand 2010 12.5 TW Global end-use power demand 2030 with current fuels 16.9 TW Global end-use power demand 2030 converting all energy to wind- water-sun (WWS) and electricty/H2 11.5 TW (30% reduction)  Conversion to electricity, H reduces power demand 30%
  31. 31. Number of Plants or Devices to Power World Technology Percent Supply 2030 Number 5-MW wind turbines50% 3.8 mill. (0.8% in place) 0.75-MW wave devices1 720,000 100-MW geothermal plants 4 5350 (1.7% in place) 1300-MW hydro plants4 900 (70% in place) 1-MW tidal turbines1 490,000 3-kW Roof PV systems6 1.7 billion 300-MW Solar PV plants14 40,000 300-MW CSP plants20 49,000 ____ 100%
  32. 32. World Wind Speeds at 100m 90 10 8 0 6 4 -90 2 -180 -90 0 90 180All wind worldwide: 1700 TW;All wind over land in high-wind areas outside Antarctica ~ 70-170 TWWorld power demand 2030: 16.9 TW
  33. 33. World Surface SolarAll solar worldwide: 6500 TW;All solar over land in high-solar locations~ 340 TWWorld power demand 2030: 16.9 TW
  34. 34. Methods of addressing variability of WWS1. Interconnecting geographically-dispersed WWS resources2. Bundling WWS resources as one commodity and using hydroelectricity to fill in gaps in supply3. Using demand-response management4. Oversizing peak generation capacity and producing hydrogen with excess for industry, transportation5. Storing electric power on site or in BEVs (e.g., VTG)6. Forecasting winds and cloudiness better to reduce reserves
  35. 35. Matching Hourly Demand With WWS Supply by Aggregating Sites andBundling WWS Resources – Least Cost Optimization for CaliforniaFor 99.8% of all hours in 2005, 2006, delivered CA elec. carbon free. Can oversizeWWS capacity, use demand-response, forecast, store to reduce NG backup more Hart and Jacobson (2011); www.stanford.edu/~ehart/
  36. 36. Desertec www.dw-world.de/image/0,,4470611_1,00.jpg
  37. 37. Reserve Base for Nd2O3 (Tg) Used in PermanentMagnets for Wind Turbine GeneratorsCountry Reserve Base Needed to power 50% of world with windU.S.2.1Australia1.0China16.0CIS3.8India0.2Others4.1 periodictable.comWorld27.3 4.4 (0.1 Tg/yr for 44 years) Jacobson &Delucchi (2011)
  38. 38. Reserve Base for Lithium (Tg) Used in BatteriesCountry Reserve Base Possible number of vehicles @10kg/eachU.S.0.41 with current known land reservesAustralia0.22China1.1Bolivia5.4Chile3.0Argentina? www.saltsale.comAfghanistan?World land11+ 1.1 billion+ (currently 800 million)Oceans240 Jacobson &Delucchi (2011)
  39. 39. Costs of Energy, Including Transmission (¢/kWh)Energy Technology 2005-2010 2020-2030Wind onshore 4-7 ≤4Wind offshore 10-17 8-13Wave >>11 4-11Geothermal 4-7 4-7Hydroelectric 4 4CSP 11-15 8Solar PV>20 10Tidal >>11 5-7Conventional (+Externalities) 7 (+5)=12 8 (+5.5) =13.5 Delucchi& Jacobson (2010)
  40. 40. Long-Distance Transmission Costs (2007 $US)for Transmission 1200-2000 km Low Med HighCost of l.d. transmission (¢/kWh)0.3 1.2 3.2 Delucchi& Jacobson (2010)
  41. 41. Summary 2030 electricity cost 4-10¢/kWh for most, 8-13 for some WWS , vs. fossil-fuel 8 + 5.5 externality = 13.5¢/kWh Includes long-distance transmission (1200-2000 km) ~1¢/kWh Requires only 0.41% more of world land for footprint; 0.59% for spacing (compared w/40% of world land for cropland and pasture) Eliminates 2.5-3 million air pollution deaths/year Eliminates global warming, provides energy stability
  42. 42. Summary, cont.Converting to Wind, Water, & Sun (WWS) and electricity/H2 willreduce global power demand by 30%Methods of addressing WWS variability: (a) interconnectinggeographically-dispersed WWS; (b) bundling WWS and using hydroto fill in gaps; (c) demand-response; (d) oversizing peak capacityand producing hydrogen with excess for industry, vehicles; (e) on-site storage; (f) forecastingMaterials are not limits although recycling may be needed.Barriers : up-front costs, transmission needs, lobbying, politics.Papers:www.stanford.edu/group/efmh/jacobson/Articles/I/susenergy2030.html
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