0
TOWARDS NEARLY ZEROENERGY BUILDINGS
Webinar

23/01/2014
Dr. Andreas Hermelink
Content
> Introduction
> Nearly Zero-Energy Buildings (nZEB)
> Reporting template and analytical framework for Member Stat...
Introduction – What‘s the issue?
> Emissions gap report Cancún:
Scenarios that give the world a
chance to stay below 2 °C ...
A roadmap for moving to a low carbon economy
in 2050, EC 2011, Minimum Reduction vs. 1990

0%
-10%
-20%

Cross sectoral

P...
A roadmap for moving to a low carbon economy
in 2050, EC 2011, Maximum Reduction vs. 1990

0%

Cross sectoral

Power

Buil...
Content
> Introduction
> Nearly Zero-Energy Buildings (nZEB)
> Reporting template and analytical framework for Member Stat...
Definition of Nearly Zero-Energy Buildings
> Energy Performance of Buildings Directive’s (EPBD), Article 9:
– [A nearly Ze...
Nearly Zero-Energy Buildings: Key Questions

2019/2021

today

building stock

> Burning questions
– Options to achieve ne...
Nearly Zero-Energy Buildings: Close Up
> Residential & non-residential buildings
> All NEW buildings
> Included services: ...
Content
> Introduction
> Nearly Zero-Energy Buildings (nZEB)
> Reporting template and analytical framework for Member
Stat...
Request for National nZEB Plans
> Member States shall draw up national plans for increasing the number of
nearly zero-ener...
Template for National Plans
> Reporting template
– provided by the European Commission to MS; developed by Ecofys
– Also s...
Template for nZEB definition
> How do member states define the nearly
zero-energy buildings? Do they fulfill the
EPBD/RED ...
Template for nZEB definition

14

© ECOFYS | 23/01/2014 | Dr. Andreas Hermelink
Content
> Introduction
> Nearly Zero-Energy Buildings (nZEB)
> Reporting template and analytical framework for Member Stat...
Different Physical Boundaries for Supplying
Energy from Renewable Sources, 1

on-site

nearby

off-site

> “the nearly zer...
Single Building and Off-Site Supply

import
export

on-site

nearby

off-site

> Two different physical boundaries for dem...
Metric and Period of the Balance
> EPBD requires national nZEB definition to
include a numerical indicator for the energy
...
Period of the Balance – „Load Match Index“
> Different sub-intervals
for a 1 year period:

– 1 year
source: Koch et al. 20...
Variations in nZEB definitions
80

Number of available
definitions/labels

70
60
50
not defined

40

no

30

yes

20
10
0
...
Content
> Introduction
> Nearly Zero-Energy Buildings (nZEB)
> Reporting template and analytical framework for Member Stat...
Approach for deriving benchmarks

> Cost-optimality methodology
> Dynamic simulation of multiple variants (office, single,...
Cost-optimality: Definition of “global costs”

> Global cost calculations (EN 15459) result in a net present
value of cost...
Derivation of cost optimal level

1
€/m2
2

3

4

5

6

„Cost optimal
range“

Economic
optimum

kWh/m2a

25

© ECOFYS | 23...
Financial and environmental gap today

26

© ECOFYS | 23/01/2014 | Dr. Andreas Hermelink
Defining the primary energy benchmark area

27

© ECOFYS | 23/01/2014 | Dr. Andreas Hermelink
Defining the primary energy benchmark area

The “benchmark area” is determined in the following way:
• Determine the varia...
Results net primary energy ranges
Simulated net primary energy ranges in different European
regions and building categorie...
Results energy needs

Simulated energy needs for heating and cooling in different
European regions and building categories...
Results onsite share renewables
Simulated shares of onsite renewables on total primary energy
demand in different European...
32

Paris - Office - New Building - 2010
Financial Persp. (RIR = 4%, Tax included)

100%

3500
3000

80%

2500
60%

2000

...
Summary results energy needs

Energy needs (being the sum of heating and cooling) turned out to
be in the following low ra...
Content
> Introduction
> Nearly Zero-Energy Buildings (nZEB)
> Reporting template and analytical framework for Member Stat...
Cost-opt vs. nZEB – The Commission‘s view

> After 2013, all new buildings and renovations shall be based on
cost optimal ...
Cost-opt vs. nZEB – The Commission‘s answer

> Basically cost optimality and nearly zero energy buildings are two
differen...
Gap in life cycle costs

2020

Financial and environmental gaps between nearly zero-energy building,

2010

Financial and ...
Content
> Introduction
> Nearly Zero-Energy Buildings (nZEB)
> Reporting template and analytical framework for Member Stat...
Conclusions and Recommendations
> nZEB usually are correlated with very low energy needs (close
>
>
>
>
>

39

or equal to...
Conclusions and Recommendations
> It is likely to be a good economic investment to continue

support for innovation and to...
Please contact us for more information
Dr. Andreas Hermelink
Ecofys Germany GmbH
Am Karlsbad 11
10785 Berlin
Germany
T: +4...
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Towards Nearly Zero Energy Buildings

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Already by 2021, every new building in Europe has to meet the standard of nearly zero-energy buildings.

During 2012, a consortium led by Ecofys undertook a study for the European Commission to provide guidance to Member States and the EC with regards to the implementation of the requirements for nearly zero-energy buildings under the Energy Performance of Buildings Directive (EPBD). The study features benchmarks for nearly zero-energy buildings for different European climates, an analytical framework for evaluating Member States national plans for increasing the number of such buildings, a reporting template for these plans and an analysis of the convergence between cost optimal levels and nearly zero-energy buildings.

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Transcript of "Towards Nearly Zero Energy Buildings"

  1. 1. TOWARDS NEARLY ZEROENERGY BUILDINGS Webinar 23/01/2014 Dr. Andreas Hermelink
  2. 2. Content > Introduction > Nearly Zero-Energy Buildings (nZEB) > Reporting template and analytical framework for Member States > Specific issues around the nZEB definition > Benchmarks for nZEB > Convergence between cost-optimality and nZEB? > Conclusions and Recommendations 2 © ECOFYS | 23/01/2014 | Dr. Andreas Hermelink
  3. 3. Introduction – What‘s the issue? > Emissions gap report Cancún: Scenarios that give the world a chance to stay below 2 °C have: > World GHG Emissions peak before 2020 > World GHG Emissions in 2050 50-60% below 1990 level > Due to the high share of industrialized countries in GHG emissions, Europe has a target of 80%-95% GHG reductions. 3 © ECOFYS | 23/01/2014 | Dr. Andreas Hermelink
  4. 4. A roadmap for moving to a low carbon economy in 2050, EC 2011, Minimum Reduction vs. 1990 0% -10% -20% Cross sectoral Power Buildings -20% -30% -37% -40% -50% 2030 -54% 2050 -60% -70% -80% -80% -90% -100% 4 © ECOFYS | 23/01/2014 | Dr. Andreas Hermelink -93% 2020 -88%
  5. 5. A roadmap for moving to a low carbon economy in 2050, EC 2011, Maximum Reduction vs. 1990 0% Cross sectoral Power Buildings -10% -20% -30% -30% 2020 -40% -53% -50% -60% -68% -70% -80% -90% -95% -100% 5 © ECOFYS | 23/01/2014 | Dr. Andreas Hermelink -91% -99% 2030 2050
  6. 6. Content > Introduction > Nearly Zero-Energy Buildings (nZEB) > Reporting template and analytical framework for Member States > Specific issues around the nZEB definition > Benchmarks for nZEB > Convergence between cost-optimality and nZEB? > Conclusions and Recommendations 6 © ECOFYS | 23/01/2014 | Dr. Andreas Hermelink
  7. 7. Definition of Nearly Zero-Energy Buildings > Energy Performance of Buildings Directive’s (EPBD), Article 9: – [A nearly Zero-Energy Building is a] “building that has a very high energy performance… [ ]. The nearly zero or very low amount of energy required should to a very significant extent be covered by energy from renewable sources, including renewable energy produced on-site or nearby.” 2019/2021 7 © ECOFYS | 23/01/2014 | Dr. Andreas Hermelink today building stock
  8. 8. Nearly Zero-Energy Buildings: Key Questions 2019/2021 today building stock > Burning questions – Options to achieve nearly zero-energy buildings? – What about the share of renewables? – What is “nearly zero”? – Do nZEB need to be cost-optimal? 8 © ECOFYS | 23/01/2014 | Dr. Andreas Hermelink
  9. 9. Nearly Zero-Energy Buildings: Close Up > Residential & non-residential buildings > All NEW buildings > Included services: heating, domestic hot water, cooling, ventilation, lighting (commercial buildings) and auxiliary energy => NOT: plug-loads, appliances > First, reduce energy needs for these services to cost-optimal levels > Second, cover the nearly zero rest (very significantly) from renewable sources > Annual GHG emissions 2050: appr. 3 kg CO2 / m2a in building stock > => nZEB also means nearly zero emission building! > Today there is no more specific definition in Europe which is common sense! 9 © ECOFYS | 23/01/2014 | Dr. Andreas Hermelink
  10. 10. Content > Introduction > Nearly Zero-Energy Buildings (nZEB) > Reporting template and analytical framework for Member States > Specific issues around the nZEB definition > Benchmarks for nZEB > Convergence between cost-optimality and nZEB? > Conclusions and Recommendations 10 © ECOFYS | 23/01/2014 | Dr. Andreas Hermelink
  11. 11. Request for National nZEB Plans > Member States shall draw up national plans for increasing the number of nearly zero-energy buildings (EPBD Article 9 paragraph 1). > The National plans shall include: – Application in practice of the national definition of nearly zero energy buildings – Intermediate targets – Policies and financial or other measures for the promotion of nZEB > “The Commission shall evaluate the national plans … notably the adequacy of the measures envisaged by the Member States… .” (EPBD Article 9, paragraph 4). > After having received the national plan the Commission “… may request further specific information regarding the requirements set out in paragraphs 1,2 and 3” => common reporting format on nZEB is helpful 11 © ECOFYS | 23/01/2014 | Dr. Andreas Hermelink
  12. 12. Template for National Plans > Reporting template – provided by the European Commission to MS; developed by Ecofys – Also serves the Commission as an analytical framework. > Categories included – Starting point – Application of the definition of nearly zero-energy building – Intermediate targets (qualitative and quantitative) – Intermediate targets also for new buildings occupied and owned by public authorities (by 31 December 2018) – Policies and measures for the promotion of all new buildings being nearly zero-energy buildings after 31 December 2018 resp. – Additional information – Possible improvements (self-assessment and possible improvements) 12 © ECOFYS | 23/01/2014 | Dr. Andreas Hermelink
  13. 13. Template for nZEB definition > How do member states define the nearly zero-energy buildings? Do they fulfill the EPBD/RED requirements? > Table for reporting the detailed application of the definition of nearly zero-energy buildings in practice. 13 © ECOFYS | 23/01/2014 | Dr. Andreas Hermelink
  14. 14. Template for nZEB definition 14 © ECOFYS | 23/01/2014 | Dr. Andreas Hermelink
  15. 15. Content > Introduction > Nearly Zero-Energy Buildings (nZEB) > Reporting template and analytical framework for Member States > Specific issues around the nZEB definition > Benchmarks for nZEB > Convergence between cost-optimality and nZEB? > Conclusions and Recommendations 15 © ECOFYS | 23/01/2014 | Dr. Andreas Hermelink
  16. 16. Different Physical Boundaries for Supplying Energy from Renewable Sources, 1 on-site nearby off-site > “the nearly zero or very low amount of energy required should be covered to a very significant extent by energy from renewable sources, including [but not saying: “being” or “limited to”] energy from renewable sources produced on-site or nearby”. > Main arguments to include off-site: provide sufficient number of choices for building owner, ensure equal chances, reflect reality of renewable supply 16 © ECOFYS | 23/01/2014 | Dr. Andreas Hermelink
  17. 17. Single Building and Off-Site Supply import export on-site nearby off-site > Two different physical boundaries for demand and supply > Balancing import and export > Balance gets easier when focus switches to building owner as „legal system“ => high share of RE possible without any on-site renewables 18 © ECOFYS | 23/01/2014 | Dr. Andreas Hermelink
  18. 18. Metric and Period of the Balance > EPBD requires national nZEB definition to include a numerical indicator for the energy performance. Which metric to use? – Delivered energy => primary energy factors (PEF) => Primary energy – PEF sometimes intransparent, for electricity steep decrease forecasted – Switch to CO2 might happen in the future > Period of the balance – EPBD: Net balance over one year (include heating & cooling) – Question of length of sub-intervals – The shorter the sub-interval, the more ambitious it is to achieve (nearly) zeroenergy balances => aim: less stress for (electricity) grids 19 © ECOFYS | 23/01/2014 | Dr. Andreas Hermelink
  19. 19. Period of the Balance – „Load Match Index“ > Different sub-intervals for a 1 year period: – 1 year source: Koch et al. 2011 – 1 month – 1 day – 1 hour > Balancing „PV on the roof“-export with import from grid; > PV system sized for annual „net 0“ > Result: The net ZEB can only “live” without importing energy for 25% of a year’s hours; e.g. all nocturnal hours need energy imports. > Annual sub-interval over-estimates renewable share > Currently monthly balances seem to be a viable solution. 20 © ECOFYS | 23/01/2014 | Dr. Andreas Hermelink
  20. 20. Variations in nZEB definitions 80 Number of available definitions/labels 70 60 50 not defined 40 no 30 yes 20 10 0 option1:footprint option2:on-site option3:off-site generation option4:off-site green electricity > 71 nZEB definitions from 17 EU and 2 countries beyond have been analysed > graph shows which boundary is explicitly allowed/forbidden/not mentioned for renewable energy (heat & electricity) 21 © ECOFYS | 23/01/2014 | Dr. Andreas Hermelink
  21. 21. Content > Introduction > Nearly Zero-Energy Buildings (nZEB) > Reporting template and analytical framework for Member States incl. specific issues around the nZEB definition > Benchmarks for nZEB > Convergence between cost-optimality and nZEB? > Conclusions and Recommendations 22 © ECOFYS | 23/01/2014 | Dr. Andreas Hermelink
  22. 22. Approach for deriving benchmarks > Cost-optimality methodology > Dynamic simulation of multiple variants (office, single, 4 climate zones/cities, new/retrofit, 2010/2020, private/societal perspective) => clouds of variants > Defining primary energy benchmark area > Calculation of renewable share within benchmark area > Classification of energy needs within benchmark area > Feedback-loop with global cost 23 © ECOFYS | 23/01/2014 | Dr. Andreas Hermelink
  23. 23. Cost-optimality: Definition of “global costs” > Global cost calculations (EN 15459) result in a net present value of costs incurred during a defined calculation period > initial investment > annual costs for every year (running costs) > final (residual) value > disposal costs > Two different perspectives to be taken > macroeconomic perspective (excl. taxes and subsidies, including carbon costs etc., macroeconomic discount rate) > financial perspective (incl. taxes and subsidies, excluding carbon costs etc., market interest rate) 24 © ECOFYS | 23/01/2014 | Dr. Andreas Hermelink
  24. 24. Derivation of cost optimal level 1 €/m2 2 3 4 5 6 „Cost optimal range“ Economic optimum kWh/m2a 25 © ECOFYS | 23/01/2014 | Dr. Andreas Hermelink
  25. 25. Financial and environmental gap today 26 © ECOFYS | 23/01/2014 | Dr. Andreas Hermelink
  26. 26. Defining the primary energy benchmark area 27 © ECOFYS | 23/01/2014 | Dr. Andreas Hermelink
  27. 27. Defining the primary energy benchmark area The “benchmark area” is determined in the following way: • Determine the variant with minimum net primary energy, • Consider an increase of 15 to 25 kWh/m2y, • At this new level of net primary determine the variant with minimum global cost, • Increase global cost by 15-25% 28 © ECOFYS | 23/01/2014 | Dr. Andreas Hermelink
  28. 28. Results net primary energy ranges Simulated net primary energy ranges in different European regions and building categories 29 © ECOFYS | 23/01/2014 | Dr. Andreas Hermelink
  29. 29. Results energy needs Simulated energy needs for heating and cooling in different European regions and building categories 30 © ECOFYS | 23/01/2014 | Dr. Andreas Hermelink
  30. 30. Results onsite share renewables Simulated shares of onsite renewables on total primary energy demand in different European regions and building categories 31 © ECOFYS | 23/01/2014 | Dr. Andreas Hermelink
  31. 31. 32 Paris - Office - New Building - 2010 Financial Persp. (RIR = 4%, Tax included) 100% 3500 3000 80% 2500 60% 2000 40% 1500 1000 20% 500 0% 0 EN < 15 kWh/m2 15 < EN < 30 kWh/m2 © ECOFYS | 23/01/2014 | Dr. Andreas Hermelink 30 < EN < 45 kWh/m2 45 < EN < 60 kWh/m2 60 < EN < 75 kWh/m2 EN > 75 kWh/m2 Global Cost - 30 years [€/m2] % of Building Variants within classes of Energy Needs for Heating and Cooling Feedback loop with global cost
  32. 32. Summary results energy needs Energy needs (being the sum of heating and cooling) turned out to be in the following low ranges for the following climate zones: > Zone 1: Catania (others: Athens, Larnaca, Luga, Seville, Palermo): 15-45 kWh/m2a (new office), 15-30 kWh/m2a (new SFH) > Zone 2: Budapest (others: Bratislava, Ljubjana, Milan, Vienna): 1545 kWh/m2a (new office), <15 kWh/m2a (new SFH) > Zone 3: Paris (others: Amsterdam, Berlin, Brussels, Copenhagen, Dublin, London, Macon, Nancy, Prague, Warszawa): 30-45 kWh/m2a (new office), here variants having the same average global cost were found in the classes <15 kWh/m2a and 15-30 kWh/m2a as well; <15 kWh/m2a (new SFH) > Zone 4: Stockholm (Helsinki, Riga, Stockholm, Gdansk, Tovarene): 15-30 kWh/m2a (office), <25 kWh/m2a (SFH) 33 © ECOFYS | 23/01/2014 | Dr. Andreas Hermelink
  33. 33. Content > Introduction > Nearly Zero-Energy Buildings (nZEB) > Reporting template and analytical framework for Member States > Specific issues around the nZEB definition > Benchmarks for nZEB > Convergence between cost-optimality and nZEB? > Conclusions and Recommendations 34 © ECOFYS | 23/01/2014 | Dr. Andreas Hermelink
  34. 34. Cost-opt vs. nZEB – The Commission‘s view > After 2013, all new buildings and renovations shall be based on cost optimal requirements. > How is it with cost optimality of nZEB after 2020? Do they have to be cost optimal as well? (i.e. what if the technologies necessary for reaching nZEB will not be cost optimal?) 35 © ECOFYS | 23/01/2014 | Dr. Andreas Hermelink
  35. 35. Cost-opt vs. nZEB – The Commission‘s answer > Basically cost optimality and nearly zero energy buildings are two different concepts. Nevertheless, the minimum energy performance requirements for new buildings after 2020 (i.e. NZEB) will have to be cost optimal as well. In best case (depending on circumstances, like investment costs and energy prices and depending on the exact definition of nearly zero energy buildings by the respective Member State) the technical requirements derived from the two systems get close to each other around 2020 to allow a smooth transition. 36 © ECOFYS | 23/01/2014 | Dr. Andreas Hermelink
  36. 36. Gap in life cycle costs 2020 Financial and environmental gaps between nearly zero-energy building, 2010 Financial and environmental gap between nearly zero-energy building cost optimality of system costs, energy prices and and cost optimality in 2021 factors expected Changes and current requirements in 2011 primary energy  Cost optimum clearly moves to lower net primary energy between 2010 and 2020 37 © ECOFYS | 23/01/2014 | Dr. Andreas Hermelink
  37. 37. Content > Introduction > Nearly Zero-Energy Buildings (nZEB) > Reporting template and analytical framework for Member States > Specific issues around the nZEB definition > Benchmarks for nZEB > Convergence between cost-optimality and nZEB? > Conclusions and Recommendations 38 © ECOFYS | 23/01/2014 | Dr. Andreas Hermelink
  38. 38. Conclusions and Recommendations > nZEB usually are correlated with very low energy needs (close > > > > > 39 or equal to Passive House) Buildings constructed with very low energy needs have global costs over 30 years lower or comparable to buildings with high energy needs These results seem relatively robust towards changes in various economic parameters, e.g. the assumed interest rates The economic attractiveness of low energy need buildings grows when considering the scenario of constructing a building in 2020 The cost optimum in all cases moves towards zero This result is reinforced in case energy prices would rise more significantly than assumed © ECOFYS | 23/01/2014 | Dr. Andreas Hermelink
  39. 39. Conclusions and Recommendations > It is likely to be a good economic investment to continue support for innovation and to completely close the gap between cost-optimal and zero energy > Not to forget: Buildings with low energy needs have supplementary benefits like higher thermal and visual comfort > nZEB as a cornerstone for EU 2050 climate targets > On-site RE currently in the focus, but > Off-site RE must get a viable nZEB option as well – Equality, even chances, avoid discrimination – Community and large scale production > Only demand reduction and RE will succeed 40 © ECOFYS | 23/01/2014 | Dr. Andreas Hermelink
  40. 40. Please contact us for more information Dr. Andreas Hermelink Ecofys Germany GmbH Am Karlsbad 11 10785 Berlin Germany T: +49 30 297 735 79-50 E: a.hermelink@ecofys.com I: www.ecofys.com 41 © ECOFYS | 23/01/2014 | Dr. Andreas Hermelink
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