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Ecofys webinar heatpump_scenarios_2030
Ecofys webinar heatpump_scenarios_2030
Ecofys webinar heatpump_scenarios_2030
Ecofys webinar heatpump_scenarios_2030
Ecofys webinar heatpump_scenarios_2030
Ecofys webinar heatpump_scenarios_2030
Ecofys webinar heatpump_scenarios_2030
Ecofys webinar heatpump_scenarios_2030
Ecofys webinar heatpump_scenarios_2030
Ecofys webinar heatpump_scenarios_2030
Ecofys webinar heatpump_scenarios_2030
Ecofys webinar heatpump_scenarios_2030
Ecofys webinar heatpump_scenarios_2030
Ecofys webinar heatpump_scenarios_2030
Ecofys webinar heatpump_scenarios_2030
Ecofys webinar heatpump_scenarios_2030
Ecofys webinar heatpump_scenarios_2030
Ecofys webinar heatpump_scenarios_2030
Ecofys webinar heatpump_scenarios_2030
Ecofys webinar heatpump_scenarios_2030
Ecofys webinar heatpump_scenarios_2030
Ecofys webinar heatpump_scenarios_2030
Ecofys webinar heatpump_scenarios_2030
Ecofys webinar heatpump_scenarios_2030
Ecofys webinar heatpump_scenarios_2030
Ecofys webinar heatpump_scenarios_2030
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Ecofys webinar heatpump_scenarios_2030

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http://www.leonardo-energy.org/webinar/heat-pump-implementation-scenarios-until-2030 …

http://www.leonardo-energy.org/webinar/heat-pump-implementation-scenarios-until-2030

The webinar will present results of a study carried out by Ecofys for the European Heat Pump Association. The aim of the study was to quantify the potential of heat pumps to save CO2-eq emissions and energy and to increase the use of renewable energy in the EU’s building sector until 2030. The study assesses related impacts on investments and energy costs. The study gives an overview of eight European key markets (Austria, Belgium, Germany, Spain, France, Italy, Sweden and the United Kingdom).

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  1. Heat Pump Implementation Scenarios until 2030 Key Results & Methodology Leonardo Energy Webinar, 17 April 2014 Dr.-Ing. Kjell Bettgenhäuser
  2. © ECOFYS | |17.04.2014 Key Research Question How can heat pumps contribute to the long-term EU energy and climate targets? Dr.-Ing. Kjell Bettgenhaeuser - Leonardo Energy Webinar2
  3. © ECOFYS | |17.04.2014 Agenda Part I - Overview > Objective & Key Messages Part II - Details > Methodology > Scenario Definitions > Results > Individual Building Level > Scenarios > Conclusion Dr.-Ing. Kjell Bettgenhaeuser - Leonardo Energy Webinar3
  4. © ECOFYS | |17.04.2014 Dr.-Ing. Kjell Bettgenhaeuser - Leonardo Energy Webinar4 Part I Overview
  5. © ECOFYS | |17.04.2014 Objective > Scope > Study for > Scenarios for 8 countries (AT, BE, FR, DE, IT, ES, SE, UK) > Impact of increasing heat pump implementations > Scope of heating, hot water, cooling, auxiliary energy > 3 scenarios Dr.-Ing. Kjell Bettgenhaeuser - Leonardo Energy Webinar5
  6. © ECOFYS | |17.04.2014 Objective > Scenario Definition > 3 scenarios > All with (very) high energy efficiency standard related to the building shell > Differentiation of heating system mix > Scenario “Current Policy Implementation - CPI” with moderate increasing HP share > Scenario “HP+” with high HP shares (30% 4 for retrofits and 50% 4 for new builds) > Scenario “HP++” with very high HP shares (50% 4 for retrofits and 100% 4 for new builds) Dr.-Ing. Kjell Bettgenhaeuser - Leonardo Energy Webinar6
  7. © ECOFYS | |17.04.2014 Key Message I > GHG Emissions Building sector target corridor* Total CO2 emissions reduction by 46% in the “HP++” scenario 2012-2030 * Building sector specific targets 2005, 2020 and 2050 based on the “European Roadmap for moving to a competitive low carbon economy in 2050” Impact of heat pump shares within the total building sector: CO2-emissions for the focus countries Scenarios: Heat pumps can play an essential role in the future supply mix. without any heat pumps CO2-eq emissions from heat pump F-gas leakages: Dr.-Ing. Kjell Bettgenhaeuser - Leonardo Energy Webinar7
  8. © ECOFYS | |17.04.2014 Dr.-Ing. Kjell Bettgenhaeuser - Leonardo Energy Webinar8 Key Message II > Final Energy The overall final energy for space heating, hot water, cooling and auxiliary purposes with increasing shares of heat pumps can be reduced by 2030 (compared to 2012): > by 19% in “CPI”, > by 25% in “HP+” and > by 31% in “HP++”.
  9. © ECOFYS | |17.04.2014 Dr.-Ing. Kjell Bettgenhaeuser - Leonardo Energy Webinar9 Key Message III > Costs The total annual costs (annuities from investments and energy costs) increase by 2030 related to “CPI”. > by 0.7% in the scenario “HP+” and > by 2.7% in the scenario “HP++”.
  10. © ECOFYS | |17.04.2014 RES-shares from heat pumps by 2020 can be higher than required by the RES-Directive Dr.-Ing. Kjell Bettgenhaeuser - Leonardo Energy Webinar10 Key Message IV > RES shares
  11. © ECOFYS | |17.04.2014 Dr.-Ing. Kjell Bettgenhaeuser - Leonardo Energy Webinar11 Part II Details
  12. © ECOFYS | |17.04.2014 Methodology > The Ecofys BEAM² Model Dr.-Ing. Kjell Bettgenhaeuser - Leonardo Energy Webinar12
  13. © ECOFYS | |17.04.2014 Methodology > The Ecofys BEAM² Model Dr.-Ing. Kjell Bettgenhaeuser - Leonardo Energy Webinar13 1 2 3 4 5 6 8 7 Calculation Steps BEAM² (Source: Dissertation Bettgenhaeuser)
  14. © ECOFYS | |17.04.2014 Methodology > The Ecofys BEAM² Model Dr.-Ing. Kjell Bettgenhaeuser - Leonardo Energy Webinar14 Schematic illustration of the scope for the Built-Environment-Analysis-Model BEAM² (Source: Dissertation Bettgenhaeuser, CEN/TR 15615)
  15. © ECOFYS | |17.04.2014 Scenario Definition > Number of buildings in key markets Dr.-Ing. Kjell Bettgenhaeuser - Leonardo Energy Webinar15 Number of buildings Conditioned floor area per country and building type
  16. © ECOFYS | |17.04.2014 Scenario Definition > Reference buildings Dr.-Ing. Kjell Bettgenhaeuser - Leonardo Energy Webinar16 Residential Non-residential Sweden, France, Italy Germany, Spain, Belgium, Austria, UK All regions All regions All regions All regions All regions All regions Single-family house (detached) Single-family house (Row-end house) Multi-family house Office Education Trade / retail Touristic Health Floor area [m²] 110,7 120,0 335,0 1972,0 11725,0 620,0 1050,0 22.422,2 Ambient w all [m²] 152,0 130,0 270,0 1595,6 7597,0 510,6 1351,8 5184,3 North [m²] 40,0 0,0 15,0 576,0 1846,0 155,3 161,9 1501,8 East [m²] 36,0 30,0 120,0 234,1 1950,0 100,0 513,0 1086,7 South [m²] 40,0 70,0 15,0 597,6 1847,0 155,3 164,4 1444,4 West [m²] 36,0 30,0 120,0 187,9 1954,0 100,0 512,5 1151,4 Window s 26,6 24,4 96,1 611,0 2825,8 46,8 207,2 845,4 North [m²] 5,7 0,0 6,3 207,9 721,9 0,0 0,0 186,2 East [m²] 5,8 3,9 26,0 181,5 787,0 46,2 105,6 144,9 South [m²] 5,3 8,6 6,3 208,2 891,9 0,0 10,0 220,7 West [m²] 9,7 9,2 57,5 13,4 425,0 0,6 91,6 293,7 Roof w indow East [m²] 0,0 0,7 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 Roof w indow West [m²] 0,0 2,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 Ground plate [m²] cellar existent Cellar existent 188,5 591,0 4267,0 620,0 564,1 Cellar existent Cellar ceiling [m²] 99,2 85,5 no cellar no cellar no cellar no cellar no cellar 3.739,1 Roof [m²] 77,0 52,3 188,5 591,0 4267,0 620,0 564,0 3.739,1 East [m²] 38,5 26,8 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 West [m²] 38,5 25,5 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 Story height [m²] 2.75 (average) 2.75 (average) 2.75 (average) 3,7 4,5 4,7 2.8 / 3.5 4,3 Building volume [m³] 465 (w ithout cellar) 517 (w ithout cellar) 1480,0 7473,7 53941,9 3100,0 6879,0 88.864,2 Ratio m² floor to cellar or ground 1,1 1,4 1,8 3,3 1,0 1,9 6,0 Source: Klauß, Maas (2010)
  17. © ECOFYS | |17.04.2014 Scenario Definition > Retrofits, new buildings and demolitions Dr.-Ing. Kjell Bettgenhaeuser - Leonardo Energy Webinar17 Renovation, new construction and demolition rates
  18. © ECOFYS | |17.04.2014 Scenario Definition > Shares of heat pumps Dr.-Ing. Kjell Bettgenhaeuser - Leonardo Energy Webinar18
  19. © ECOFYS | |17.04.2014 Scenario Definition > Definition of heat pump increase rates Dr.-Ing. Kjell Bettgenhaeuser - Leonardo Energy Webinar19 Leverage factors for heat pump implementation in the “CPI” scenario Illustration of “Implementations gained from competing technologies” in the HP+ and HP++ scenarios
  20. © ECOFYS | |17.04.2014 Scenario Definition > Heat pump market saturations Dr.-Ing. Kjell Bettgenhaeuser - Leonardo Energy Webinar20 Market saturation curve (S-curve)
  21. © ECOFYS | |17.04.2014 Scenario Definition > Heat pump implementations Dr.-Ing. Kjell Bettgenhaeuser - Leonardo Energy Webinar21 Heat pump implementations per scenario Relation of heat pump implementations per scenario in 2020 related to 2012
  22. © ECOFYS | |17.04.2014 Results > SPFs and CO2-emissions for individual buildings Dr.-Ing. Kjell Bettgenhaeuser - Leonardo Energy Webinar22 SPF values for heat pumps in single-family houses per country Austria: CO2-emissions per year for heating (floor heating system)
  23. © ECOFYS | |17.04.2014 Results > GHG Emissions Building sector target corridor* Total CO2 emissions reduction by 46% in the “HP++” scenario 2012-2030 * Building sector specific targets 2005, 2020 and 2050 based on the “European Roadmap for moving to a competitive low carbon economy in 2050” Impact of heat pump shares within the total building sector: CO2-emissions for the focus countries Scenarios: Heat pumps can play an essential role in the future supply mix. without any heat pumps CO2-eq emissions from heat pump F-gas leakages: Dr.-Ing. Kjell Bettgenhaeuser - Leonardo Energy Webinar23
  24. © ECOFYS | |17.04.2014 Results > Overview * Building sector specific targets 2005, 2020 and 2050 based on the “European Roadmap for moving to a competitive low carbon economy in 2050” Dr.-Ing. Kjell Bettgenhaeuser - Leonardo Energy Webinar24 Overview on main results per scenario
  25. © ECOFYS | |17.04.2014 Conclusion High implementation of heat pumps can: contribute significantly to the mitigation of CO2- emissions, energy savings and to an increasing share of renewable energies be realized at moderate additional overall costs be an important puzzle piece for reaching long term targets (by 2050) play an essential role in the future supply mix. Additional policy actions for heat pumps are required in the HP+ and HP++ scenario. Dr.-Ing. Kjell Bettgenhaeuser - Leonardo Energy Webinar25
  26. © ECOFYS | | Dr.-Ing. Kjell Bettgenhäuser T: +49 221 270 70 157 E: k.bettgenhaeuser@ecofys.com Ecofys Germany Am Wassermann 36 50829 Cologne Germany www.ecofys.com 26 17.04.2014 Dr.-Ing. Kjell Bettgenhaeuser - Leonardo Energy Webinar26 Thank you!

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