Thriving New Zealand, Worldly Disaster


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This presentation was made by Wendy McGuinness, Chief Executive of the Sustainable Future Institute at the Pathways to Resilient Communities event. 7 March 2009

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  • In these pictures, each person represents one billion people. In 2008, 3 billion make $2 or less per day – they are represented by the three people on the left. In 2058, assuming the status quo, we can expect the three to increase to six billion. These six billion are likely to be those most effected by climate change and will be uneducated, poor, unhealthy, young and hungry. 90% are under 60 years of age. In contrast, the four billion on the right are likely to be old (only 75% are under 60 years of age) and are unhealthy due to obesity and lifestyle, educated and wealthy. The ratio within 50 years changes from 40/60 to 60/40– now it is no accident I have positioned those on the right walking towards those on the left. - About 1.5 billion in 1900 - Implications for food and water – long term global social conflict seems inevitable without serious food and water policies To summarise the developed countries and China grow old – while Africa remains young. $ 3b (State of the Future, 2008) – page 3 Africa/china etc – Page 16 (State of the Future, 2008)
  • We will continue to be the farm, and we may be the only farm on the block.
  • $1 trillion pa Illicit Trade, another $1 trillion pa on bribes– See Page 4 State of the Future, 2008 To give you some idea about the size of this hidden economy, the total spent on the military world wide is about $1 trillion – page 4, State of the Future, 2008 In addition to the 150 ‘unauthorised use’ of nuclear or radioactive materials (page 4), it is important to remember that there are currently about 20,000 active nuclear weapons.
  • Retrieved 6 March 2009 from
  • In this world, even if NZ manages itself well, our air and water will be polluted, which in turn will reduce fish numbers and change weather and temperatures.
  • State of the Future 2008: Change to Low mortality and low fertility – see pages 16 and 17- Over 25% of the world (excl Africa) will be over 60 years of age. In contrast, Africa will be more like 10% over 60 years of age 50 Years from today - One per person – page 5 So today, if you are 30 with a baby, in fifty years you may be 80 looking after the same baby. 92 in 2030 plus longer – World Futures Conference – Maddy Dychtwald and Fifty years from now – page 5 Fifty Years from Now – obesity – page 27 Obesity – 50 years from now Page 26 - – Today's baby reaches middle age – Wanda Jones
  • Thriving New Zealand, Worldly Disaster

    1. 1. A thriving New Zealand …but a worldly disaster
    2. 2. 2008 2058 2008 Today In 50 Years Population & Climate Change
    3. 3. Food, Energy & Water
    4. 4. <ul><li>Crime is global, Policing is national </li></ul><ul><li>$1 trillion pa Illicit Trade </li></ul><ul><li>150 reports of unauthorised use of nuclear or radioactive materials in the last 4 years </li></ul>Crime & Terrorism
    5. 5. Is this the way to Wellington, New Zealand?
    6. 6. Jobless in Henley Part XIV Our recession diarist considers taking a bold leap to beat the recession: emigrating.   By Julie Salt 04 Mar 2009                                                    Although the upheaval involved should not be underestimated, it is tempting to consider a fresh start. So who knows, perhaps “Jobless of Henley” could yet become “Working of Wellington”.
    7. 7. Can’t wait to try out the fish on the new Barbie tonight…
    8. 8. Over the last 30 minutes, the police radio has announced a gale warning for the Wellington Region, a boat suspected of drug trafficking off Island Bay, boat people off the Wairarapa coast, a fleet of illegal fishing boats off Kapiti Island and an evacuation of Eastborne due to a road slip … and I think my mate is taking back hander's from the Aussie Mob? Which should I deal with first?
    9. 9. <ul><li>How do we protect and make safe: our family, our assets, our resources…from global crime, terrorism, resource wars, extreme weather? </li></ul><ul><li>How do we pay for the costs of policing our waters, our airways? </li></ul><ul><li>How do we manage those starving at our door? </li></ul>What does this world look and feel like for New Zealanders living in the Wellington Region?
    10. 10. Who do we let in? Pacific Islanders, Australians, Africans, Bangladeshi, Indians, …
    11. 11. The World is going to Find Us !
    12. 12.