The Future By Numbers


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This presentation was made by Wendy McGuinness, Chief Executive of the Sustainable Future Institute at the Wellington Regional Strategy (WRS) Summit. 14 November 2008

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  • Step 1: Gather data Step 2: Discern the patterns in the data in order to transform into info reconstructing the acquired information into strategic knowledge Step 3: Translate into strategic knowledge that can be used to your competitive advantage – to develop a strategy. The strategic thinker finds strategic knowledge in the complex and chaotic data stream of everyday living. Data and info have no value unless acted upon
  • Bose I – Dr Robert Winston – Same thing happened about 100,000 years ago - Homo sapiens In the South - have developed a mind capable of imagination - a creature capable of understanding and anticipating possibilities, with the gift of abstract thought. - Neanderthals In the North - have physical power but did not survive
  • Massive increase in brain power generated by education and inter-connections 80 percent of all scientists that have ever lived are alive today
  • November 12, 2008 - 11:52AM How fast is the new supercomputer at Oak Ridge National Laboratory? If everyone in the world performed one mathematical calculation per second, it would take 650 years to do what this machine can do in one day. That makes the $US100 million computer, nicknamed "Jaguar" by scientists, the fastest in the world for unclassified scientific research. At more than 1 quadrillion mathematical calculations per second, it is about 55,000 times faster than your typical PC. Only one other supercomputer is faster, and it's devoted to classified research on nuclear weapons at the Los Alamos National Laboratory in New Mexico. Global climate change, space matter that can't be seen, and alternative energy - everything from improved gasoline combustion to fusion - are some of the subjects Jaguar will be used to research. In June, Jaguar, a Cray system, was rated fifth-fastest in the world by researchers who track the 500 top supercomputers. The Oak Ridge lab, a Department of Energy facility, announced Monday that it had upgraded Jaguar since then, and achieved its four-year goal of 1 quadrillion calculations per second - or 1 "petaflop" - six months ahead of schedule. Jaguar recently achieved sustained performance of more than 1.3 petaflops while churning out calculations on superconductivity and has hit a peak speed of 1.64 petaflops, the lab said. It is still undergoing final trials but should be ready for research by January. Thomas Zacharia, Oak Ridge's associate director for computing, anticipates a waiting list of proposals and near full-time operation when the computer begins work. All users must share their results with the broader scientific community.
  • Dennis M. Bushnell, Chief Scientist from NASA The Bill of Rights for 21st Century America
  • Latest UN-World Bank report estimates pandemic would cost $US3   trillion, says many poorer countries have defective contingency plans
  • About 1.5 billion in 1900 Implications for food and water – long term global sociol conflict seems inevitable without serious food and water policies To summarise the developed countries and China grow old – while Africa remains young.
  • The total spent on the military world wide is about $1 trillion – page 4, State of the Future, 2008
  • State of the Future 2008: Change to Low mortality and low fertility – see pages 16 and 17- Over 25% of the world (excl Africa) will be over 60 years of age. In contrast, Africa will be more like 10% over 60 years of age 50 Years from today - One per person – page 5 So today, if you are 30 with a baby, in fifty years you may be 80 looking after the same baby. 92 in 2030 plus longer – World Futures Conference – Maddy Dychtwald and Fifty years from now – page 5 Fifty Years from Now – obesity – page 27
  • First – page 104, Second – page 113, went to England to float two of the required loans - He was responsible for the establishment of the Government Life Insurance Office and the Public Trust, thus launching a tradition of state involvement for which New Zealand is noted. Also- NZ minister to make an official visit to the United States – in this case to establish a regular steamer between NZ and San Franscio – page 116
  • Manaporir – Aluminium smelter
  • National will: - Appoint a Minister of Infrastructure to reshape, co-ordinate and then oversee the Government's infrastructure objectives. - Develop a 20-year National Infrastructure Plan in conjunction with local government to set a clear direction for vital national infrastructure investment, including top priority projects. - Introduce a new category of state highway, called Roads of National Significance, which will be singled out for priority treatment. SH1 is an example. Such roads will be central to our development and investment plans Introduce priority consenting, which will streamline consents for major national infrastructure using a call-in process so the decision is determined nationally. The law will require a decision on these priority consents within nine months. - Increase Crown capital investment by up to an extra $500 million a year above levels projected by Labour. This is in addition to the Broadband investment commitment of $1.5 billion over six years. This will result in National investing in close to $5 billion of additional capital investments, over the next six years, to fund infrastructure over and above that foreshadowed by Labour. This mean that at the most, National will be running a gross debt-to-GDP ratio around two percentage points higher than Labour is planning. - Pass laws to introduce a new range of financing techniques for national infrastructure projects. National will introduce infrastructure bonds as a new asset class, and make greater use of public-private partnerships. Australia- The Minister has overall responsibility for all of the matters falling within the Infrastructure, Transport, Regional Development and Local Government portfolio, including regulation, safety and funding in relation to aviation, shipping, roads and railways and policy on regional development, local government and the territories, including the Australian Capital Territory and the Northern Territory . He is advised by: Department of Infrastructure, Transport, Regional Development and Local Government Australian Transport Safety Bureau Office of Transport Security Bureau of Transport and Regional Economics (BTRE)
  • The Future By Numbers

    1. 1. The Future by Numbers
    2. 2. Numbers in a classroom a trillion in a bathtub a billion in a cup a million in a pinch a thousand
    3. 3. Strategic Knowledge Data Information
    4. 4. 2008 10 billion years 0 4.45b 5.55b Be like the habilis - the archetypal jack-of-all-trades, inquisitive scavengers prepared to try almost anything to survive. Be tough, active, gregarious and noisy, always on the move and always alert to the possibility of a …meal. Don't be like the boisei – whose behaviour was specialised for survival in only one niche, they didn't make it. They live within a strict social structure and are led by a dominant male whose strength and power holds the group together. The boisei 's specialisation has locked them into one way of living, and when their niche no longer exists, neither can they. But the habilis can adapt to a changing world - their generalist trait lives on in us. Two million years ago, evolution tells us… Strategic Knowledge
    5. 5. Wild Card 1 Information
    6. 6. The US Department of Energy's Oak Ridge National Laboratory Computer can crunch a ‘quadrillion’ calculations per second If everyone in the world performed one mathematical calculation per second, it would take 650 years to do what this machine can do in one day. Data
    7. 7. Jerome C. Glenn – Director, The Millennium Project and co-author of the State of the Future, 2008 Joseph Coates, Professional Futurist, New York
    8. 8. Futures Studies <ul><li>Probable futures: forecasting and sometimes prediction (Status Quo) </li></ul><ul><li>Possible futures: scenarios, risks (Explorative) </li></ul><ul><li>Preferred futures: strategies and agendas for change, propelled by innovation and leadership (Visionary) </li></ul>
    9. 9. Project 2058 1 3 2030 2058 Scenarios Possible Probable Possible 2008 2 4
    10. 10. Report 14 State of New Zealand’s Future Report 15 Scenarios: Exploring New Zealand’s long-term future NEW ZEALAND’S NATIONAL ASSETS Report 7 The State Sector: Reviewing the landscape (2009) Report 8 The State of Publicly Funded Science (2009) Report 9 The State of Infrastructure (2009) Report 10 The State of Natural Resources (2009) Report 11 The Essence of New Zealand’s Identity (2009) Report 12 Towards a Tikanga-Kaupapa Perspective on Sustainability (2009) Report 16 A National Sustainable Development Strategy for New Zealand Report 13 A SWOT Analysis: New Zealand’s strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats (2009) Report 6 History of Past Future Thinkers (2009) Report 1 A National Sustainable Development Strategy: How New Zealand measures up against international commitments (August 2007) A NATIONAL SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY NEW ZEALAND’S GOVERNMENT Report 2 New Zealand Central Government Strategies: Reviewing the landscape 1990-2007 (August 2007) Report 3 Supporting Local Government: Existing initiatives for sustainable development (March 2008) Report 4 Institutions for Sustainable Development: Developing an optimal framework for New Zealand (October 2008) Report 5 The Common Elements of a National Sustainable Development Strategy: Learning from international experience (October 2008) Part 2: Scenarios Part 1: Research Part 3: Strategy
    11. 11. <ul><li>Climate </li></ul><ul><li>Demography </li></ul><ul><li>Ecosystems </li></ul><ul><li>Energy Production </li></ul><ul><li>Food & Water </li></ul><ul><li>Values & Beliefs </li></ul><ul><li>Justice & Freedom </li></ul><ul><li>Management of Ecosystems & Resources </li></ul><ul><li>Infrastructure </li></ul><ul><li>Security & Terrorism </li></ul><ul><li>Technology </li></ul><ul><li>Governance & Institutions </li></ul><ul><li>Economic Risks </li></ul><ul><li>Information & Ideas </li></ul>Wild Cards Change Agents Response to Change Agents
    12. 12. Steps Towards Scenarios <ul><li>Define project parameters, trends, driving forces, assumptions </li></ul><ul><li>Explore uncertainties and rank </li></ul><ul><li>Build scenario worlds, write stories, test </li></ul><ul><li>Use consider implications, review, communicate </li></ul>
    13. 13. Wild Card 2 <ul><li>Terrorism & War </li></ul><ul><li>Crime </li></ul><ul><li>War </li></ul><ul><li>Nuclear War </li></ul>Wild Card 3 <ul><li>Health & Safety </li></ul><ul><li>Antibiotic R. </li></ul><ul><li>Pandemic </li></ul><ul><li>Food </li></ul><ul><li>Water </li></ul>Wild Card 1 <ul><li>Technology </li></ul><ul><li>Info </li></ul><ul><li>Nano </li></ul><ul><li>Bio </li></ul>Given the - increase in population - increase in per capita consumption - climate change & - the existence of wildcards
    14. 14. 2008 2058 2008 In 2008, 3 billion make $2 or less per day. In 2058, it may be 6 billion. 2008 2058
    15. 15. <ul><li>Crime is now global </li></ul><ul><li>$1 trillion pa Illicit Trade </li></ul><ul><li>150 unauthorised use of nuclear or radioactive materials in the last 4 years </li></ul><ul><li>20,000 active nuclear weapons </li></ul>
    16. 16. Our generation is likely to have a life expectancy of 92 – 100 years of age. Our children, if we fail to manage their weight gain, will have 80 year old bodies in 50 year old skin.
    17. 17. Julius Vogel ( 1835-1899) Immigration and Works Scheme 1870 A development plan designed to revive the economy and provide the pre-conditions of economic growth, included roads in the North, railways in the South …“do more to put an end to hostilities and to confirm peaceful relations, than an army of ten thousand men’… “ We considered it very desirable, in a young country, that wealth should not be in the hands of a few capitalists…[who]…would leave the country, and enjoy elsewhere the wealth so accumulated.” NZ
    18. 18. 2058 New Zealand Rural Urban Population Mix NZ
    19. 19. Livestock NZ
    20. 20. Is this a good deal in 1908?1958? 2008? 2058? NZ
    21. 21. Source: The Urban Age Project, 2008 © WILLIS BOND & Co
    22. 23. Source: The Urban Age Project, 2008 © WILLIS BOND & Co
    23. 24. New Zealand needs a ‘National Strategy’ to optimise our future, to align our industry, to reinforce our national brand and to be an example of what is possible - not because we have to, but because we want what it can deliver
    24. 25. Sustainable Thank You