0
PROJECT 2058
Helping build a sustainable future




                                     1
2
OUTLINE

1. What is New Zealand?
2. Project 2058 Methodology
3. Risk Assessment Theory
4. Risks to New Zealand
5. Concludi...
1. WHAT IS NEW ZEALAND?

•   North, South and Stewart Islands
•   Chatham Islands
•   Kermadec Islands
•   Sub - Antarctic...
2. PROJECT 2058 METHODOLOGY


                              NSDS




                                     3.
             ...
2. PROJECT 2058 METHODOLOGY
    Part 1 Risk Assessment



NEW ZEALAND                        WORLDWIDE

Internal Character...
2. PROJECT 2058 METHODOLOGY
Part 2 Scenario Development




                    1   2



                              Pos...
2. PROJECT 2058 METHODOLOGY
Part 3 Backcasting
A National Sustainable
Development Strategy (NSDS)


Weak                  ...
3. RISK ASSESSMENT THEORY

    Identify key characteristics of
                change



  ‘Walk into the future backwards...
3. RISK ASSESSEMENT THEORY
Key Characteristics


Discrete Event
Wild Cards
Technological Leaps
Semi-Known (innovation/capa...
3. RISK ASSESSEMENT THEORY
What makes a risk – a risk?


Assumptions:
• Multiplier effect
• All risks have opportunities
•...
HOW TO INCREASE THE
DEPTH OF THE VENEER?

1.  Transparent Institutions
2. Reporting and Informing Institutions
3. Independ...
HOW TO REDUCE THE
DEPTH OF THE VENEER?

Do not …

•   Invest in quality institutions,
    processes and infrastructure
•  ...
3. RISK ASSESSMENT THEORY
Options


 A Thin Veneer    A Thick Veneer
        x                x
  A Significant    A Signi...
3. RISK ASSESSEMENT THEORY
Institutional memory
I tend to think my childhood as having been
fairly normal. But there were ...
4. RISKS
Three Steps
1.   Where we have been in
     the past (our wisdom/baggage)?

2.   Where and what are we now?
     ...
4. RISKS from the World
1.   Wild Cards (pandemic, financial collapse)
2.   Technological Leaps (nuclear, medical,
     co...
18
19
WORLD POPULATION GROWTH

           10             Total

           8


           6
                                    ...
RELIGIOUS TENSIONS
ARAB/ISRAEL CONFLICT

‘In essence, the conflict that exists today
is no more than an old-style struggle...
4. RISKS specific to New Zealand
1.   Wild Cards (environmental, pandemic)
2.   Technological Leaps (agricultural)
3.   Tr...
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
NEW ZEALAND STATISTICS
Population Changes

  New Zealand Population
  1951-2061




                            2021




 ...
NEW ZEALAND STATISTICS
  Five Largest Exports

By Type                 By Country

1958      2008         1958          20...
NEW ZEALAND STATISTICS
  Five Largest Imports
By Type          By Country

1958      2008   1958         2008




        ...
www.sustainablefuture.info
KEY RISKS IN THE FUTURE

1. Discrete Event
     –   Pandemic
     –   Earthquakes
     –   Tsunami
     –   Volcano Erupti...
KEY RISKS IN THE FUTURE

2. Technological Leaps
• Robots
• Antibiotics
• Genetic modification
• Nuclear
• Energy
• Antibio...
KEY RISKS IN THE FUTURE

3. Trends over time
• Climate Change
• Oil Prices
• Population Growth
• Land use (Biofuel / Fores...
KEY RISKS IN THE FUTURE

4. Underlying Tensions
• Central v. Local Governance
• Public v. Private Ownership
• Cultural Ten...
PERSONALITY TRAITS

•   OECD std of living nz overtime
•   OECD distribution of income
•   Multicultural-integration/assim...
2
OUTLINE
1.   What is New Zealand?
2.   Project 2058 Methodology
3.   Risk Assessment Theory
4.   Risks to New Zealand
5.  ...
1. WHAT IS NEW ZEALAND?
•   North, South and Stewart Islands
•   Chatham Islands
•   Kermadec Islands
•   Sub - Antarctic ...
2. PROJECT 2058 METHODOLOGY

                              NSDS




                                     3.
              ...
2. PROJECT 2058 METHODOLOGY
PART 1: RISK ASSESSMENT

NEW ZEALAND                      WORLDWIDE

Internal Characteristics ...
2. PROJECT 2058 METHODOLOGY
PART 2: SCENARIO DEVELOPMENT



                     1   2




                               ...
2. PROJECT 2058 METHODOLOGY
PART 3: BACKCASTING

A National Sustainable
Development Strategy (NSDS)


Weak                ...
3. RISK ASSESSMENT THEORY

  Identify key characteristics of
              change



 ‘Walk into the future backwards’
   ...
3. RISK ASSESSEMENT THEORY
KEY CHARACTERISTICS
Discrete Event
Wild Cards
Technological Leaps
Semi-Known (innovation/capaci...
3. RISK ASSESSEMENT THEORY
 WHAT MAKES A RISK – A RISK?
Assumptions:
• Multiplier effect
• All risks have opportunities
• ...
HOW TO INCREASE THE
DEPTH OF THE VENEER?
1.  Transparent Institutions
2. Reporting and Informing Institutions
3. Independe...
HOW TO REDUCE THE
DEPTH OF THE VENEER?

Do not:
1. Invest in quality institutions,
   processes and infrastructure
2. Comp...
3. RISK ASSESSMENT THEORY
OPTIONS


 A Thin Veneer    A Thick Veneer
        x                x
  A Significant    A Signi...
3. RISK ASSESSEMENT THEORY
INSTITUTIONAL MEMORY
I tend to think my childhood as having been fairly
normal. But there were ...
4. RISKS
THREE STEPS

1.   Where we have been in
     the past (our wisdom/baggage)?
2.   Where and what are we now?
     ...
4. RISKS FROM THE WORLD

1.   Wild Cards (pandemic, financial collapse)
2.   Technological Leaps (nuclear, medical,
     c...
18
19
WORLD POPULATION GROWTH

         10             Total


         8


         6
                                 Less Dev...
RELIGIOUS TENSIONS
ARAB/ISRAEL CONFLICT
‘In essence, the conflict that exists today
is no more than an old-style struggle ...
4. RISKS SPECIFIC TO NEW ZEALAND

1.   Wild Cards (environmental, pandemic)
2.   Technological Leaps (agricultural)
3.   T...
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
NEW ZEALAND STATISTICS
POPULATION CHANGES

  New Zealand Population
  1951-2061




                              2021



...
NEW ZEALAND STATISTICS
RURAL DRIFT

1858   1908 1958 2008


60% 52%     26% 14%




                         32
NEW ZEALAND STATISTICS
FIVE LARGEST EXPORTS
By Type                By Country
1958      2008          1958        2008
   ...
NEW ZEALAND STATISTICS
FIVE LARGEST IMPORTS
By Type                  By Country
1958        2008          1958        2008...
NEW ZEALAND A VISION

…To be the first nation to be truly
sustainable — across the four pillars of
the economy, society, t...
www.sustainablefuture.info
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Project 2058: Helping Build A Sustainable Future

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This presentation was made by Wendy McGuinness, Chief Executive of the Sustainable Future Institute at a Futures Thinking Aotearoa Forum. 26 February 200

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Transcript of "Project 2058: Helping Build A Sustainable Future"

  1. 1. PROJECT 2058 Helping build a sustainable future 1
  2. 2. 2
  3. 3. OUTLINE 1. What is New Zealand? 2. Project 2058 Methodology 3. Risk Assessment Theory 4. Risks to New Zealand 5. Concluding Remarks 3
  4. 4. 1. WHAT IS NEW ZEALAND? • North, South and Stewart Islands • Chatham Islands • Kermadec Islands • Sub - Antarctic islands • Tokelau • Cook Islands • Niue • Ross Dependency 4
  5. 5. 2. PROJECT 2058 METHODOLOGY NSDS 3. t en St m ra s te es gy s as de sk ve Ri lo pm 1. en t Key Range of scenarios characteristics 2. Scenario development that explore New Zealand’s future 5
  6. 6. 2. PROJECT 2058 METHODOLOGY Part 1 Risk Assessment NEW ZEALAND WORLDWIDE Internal Characteristics External Characteristics High Low Ability to control impacts STRENGTHS & OPPORTUNITIES & WEAKNESSES THREATS Identify key characteristics of change 6
  7. 7. 2. PROJECT 2058 METHODOLOGY Part 2 Scenario Development 1 2 Possible 3 4 2008 2058 7
  8. 8. 2. PROJECT 2058 METHODOLOGY Part 3 Backcasting A National Sustainable Development Strategy (NSDS) Weak Forecasting Sustainability 2008 2058 Backcasting Strong Sustainability Possible Futures 8
  9. 9. 3. RISK ASSESSMENT THEORY Identify key characteristics of change ‘Walk into the future backwards’ 1858 1908 1958 2008 2058? 9
  10. 10. 3. RISK ASSESSEMENT THEORY Key Characteristics Discrete Event Wild Cards Technological Leaps Semi-Known (innovation/capacity/acceptance) Trends Over Time Known Underlying Tensions Known and are likely to always exist (bubbling away) 10
  11. 11. 3. RISK ASSESSEMENT THEORY What makes a risk – a risk? Assumptions: • Multiplier effect • All risks have opportunities • A risk is anything that significantly breaks down societies thin veneer. • A ‘thin veneer’ exists “Courtesy is only a thin veneer on the general selfishness.” Honore De Balzac 1799-1850 11
  12. 12. HOW TO INCREASE THE DEPTH OF THE VENEER? 1. Transparent Institutions 2. Reporting and Informing Institutions 3. Independent Institutions 4. Adaptive Institutions 5. Mature Institutions 6. Future thinking Institutions 7. Interlinking Institutions 8. Educated and Informed Public 9. Democratic Electoral System 10. Timely Infrastructure 11. Effective Foreign Policy (Neutrality / Alliances) 12
  13. 13. HOW TO REDUCE THE DEPTH OF THE VENEER? Do not … • Invest in quality institutions, processes and infrastructure • complete a risk assessment the future • have a vision for the long-term • have an overarching strategy to deliver on the vision (and align institutions) • develop an action plan that is easy to both assess, hold implementers accountable, monitor and understand 13
  14. 14. 3. RISK ASSESSMENT THEORY Options A Thin Veneer A Thick Veneer x x A Significant A Significant Risk Risk (or two) (or two) = = New Zealand New Zealand in Crisis as Survivor 14
  15. 15. 3. RISK ASSESSEMENT THEORY Institutional memory I tend to think my childhood as having been fairly normal. But there were a few telltale signs…. All the years I was growing up, we had gold hidden in the basement of our house. “Dad,” I would plead, “there are these things called banks …”. “You never know.” he would reply, thoughtfully holding up a gold bar, “One of these might buy a loaf of bread, or a sack of potatoes, some day.” And so the gold remained, a hedge against eventualities I could never quite wrap my head around. HOLOCAUST SURVIVOR 15
  16. 16. 4. RISKS Three Steps 1. Where we have been in the past (our wisdom/baggage)? 2. Where and what are we now? What do we have to manage? 3. What is the future looking and feeling like? A: The World B: New Zealand 16
  17. 17. 4. RISKS from the World 1. Wild Cards (pandemic, financial collapse) 2. Technological Leaps (nuclear, medical, communication, carbon storage, robots, Antibiotic Resistance (leap backwards)) 3. Trends Over Time • Population Growth (growing population) • Environmental disaster (climate change) • Economic Power Changes (BRIC Countries) • Scarce Resources and Security of Supply (oil, water, food, infrastructure, transport) 4. Underlying Tensions • Religious (Islam/Christianity), Terrorism (individual rights/security) IMPLICATIONS: terrorism, war, poverty, disease, migration, invasion/takeover, an 17 increase in multi-country agreements/protocols (and foreign policy)
  18. 18. 18
  19. 19. 19
  20. 20. WORLD POPULATION GROWTH 10 Total 8 6 Less Developed 4 Regions Population in Billions 2 More Developed Regions 1950 2000 2050 20
  21. 21. RELIGIOUS TENSIONS ARAB/ISRAEL CONFLICT ‘In essence, the conflict that exists today is no more than an old-style struggle for power, once again presented to mankind in semi-religious trappings. The difference is that, this time, the development of atomic power has imbued the struggle with a ghostly character; for both parties know and admit that, should the quarrel deteriorate into actual war, mankind is doomed.’ Einstein: A Final Message 1960 21
  22. 22. 4. RISKS specific to New Zealand 1. Wild Cards (environmental, pandemic) 2. Technological Leaps (agricultural) 3. Trends Over Time – Population Growth (ageing population) – Environmental disaster (climate change) – Economic Power Changes (Asia) – Scarce Resources and Security of Supply (oil, water, food, infrastructure, transport) – Media (concentration, fragmentation, competition, democratisation) – Wealth distribution expanding (crime, health) 4. Underlying Tensions (Cultural Tensions, Local/Central Government, Individual rights/security, Land Use, Land Access, Public/Private Ownership) IMPLICATIONS: poverty, immigration, invasion/takeover, health, poor governance, weak 22 infrastructure, pollution, economic downturn, damage to clean-green brand
  23. 23. 23
  24. 24. 24
  25. 25. 25
  26. 26. 26
  27. 27. 27
  28. 28. 28
  29. 29. 29
  30. 30. 30
  31. 31. NEW ZEALAND STATISTICS Population Changes New Zealand Population 1951-2061 2021 In 2021 - More New Zealanders over 65 years of age than under 15 year31 olds
  32. 32. NEW ZEALAND STATISTICS Five Largest Exports By Type By Country 1958 2008 1958 2008 NB: Not Comparable Wool Dairy UK 56% Aust 21% Lamb Meat France 6% US 14% Butter Wood Aust 4% Japan 11% Beef Machinery Germany 3% China 5% Cheese Aluminium Belgium 2% UK 5% 32
  33. 33. NEW ZEALAND STATISTICS Five Largest Imports By Type By Country 1958 2008 1958 2008 33
  34. 34. www.sustainablefuture.info
  35. 35. KEY RISKS IN THE FUTURE 1. Discrete Event – Pandemic – Earthquakes – Tsunami – Volcano Eruption – Floods 35
  36. 36. KEY RISKS IN THE FUTURE 2. Technological Leaps • Robots • Antibiotics • Genetic modification • Nuclear • Energy • Antibiotic Resistance (leap backwards) 36
  37. 37. KEY RISKS IN THE FUTURE 3. Trends over time • Climate Change • Oil Prices • Population Growth • Land use (Biofuel / Forestry) 37
  38. 38. KEY RISKS IN THE FUTURE 4. Underlying Tensions • Central v. Local Governance • Public v. Private Ownership • Cultural Tension • Individual v. Collective 38
  39. 39. PERSONALITY TRAITS • OECD std of living nz overtime • OECD distribution of income • Multicultural-integration/assimilation • Privacy and Freedom of Speech (individualism) / Transparency and Barriers 39
  40. 40. 2
  41. 41. OUTLINE 1. What is New Zealand? 2. Project 2058 Methodology 3. Risk Assessment Theory 4. Risks to New Zealand 5. Concluding Remarks 3
  42. 42. 1. WHAT IS NEW ZEALAND? • North, South and Stewart Islands • Chatham Islands • Kermadec Islands • Sub - Antarctic islands • Tokelau • Cook Islands • Niue • Ross Dependency 4
  43. 43. 2. PROJECT 2058 METHODOLOGY NSDS 3. t St en ra m te s gy es s de as ve sk lo Ri pm 1. en t Range of scenarios Key that explore New characteristics 2. Scenario development Zealand’s future 5
  44. 44. 2. PROJECT 2058 METHODOLOGY PART 1: RISK ASSESSMENT NEW ZEALAND WORLDWIDE Internal Characteristics External Characteristics High Low Ability to control impacts STRENGTHS & OPPORTUNITIES & WEAKNESSES THREATS Identify key characteristics of change 6
  45. 45. 2. PROJECT 2058 METHODOLOGY PART 2: SCENARIO DEVELOPMENT 1 2 Possible 3 4 2008 2058 7
  46. 46. 2. PROJECT 2058 METHODOLOGY PART 3: BACKCASTING A National Sustainable Development Strategy (NSDS) Weak Forecasting Sustainability 2008 2058 Backcasting Strong Sustainability Possible Futures 8
  47. 47. 3. RISK ASSESSMENT THEORY Identify key characteristics of change ‘Walk into the future backwards’ 1858 1908 1958 2008 2058? 9
  48. 48. 3. RISK ASSESSEMENT THEORY KEY CHARACTERISTICS Discrete Event Wild Cards Technological Leaps Semi-Known (innovation/capacity/acceptance) Trends Over Time Known Underlying Tensions Known and are likely to always exist (bubbling away) 10
  49. 49. 3. RISK ASSESSEMENT THEORY WHAT MAKES A RISK – A RISK? Assumptions: • Multiplier effect • All risks have opportunities • A risk is anything that significantly breaks down societies thin veneer. • A ‘thin veneer’ exists “Courtesy is only a thin veneer on the general selfishness.” (Honore De Balzac 1799-1850) 11
  50. 50. HOW TO INCREASE THE DEPTH OF THE VENEER? 1. Transparent Institutions 2. Reporting and Informing Institutions 3. Independent Institutions 4. Adaptive Institutions 5. Mature Institutions 6. Future thinking Institutions 7. Interlinking Institutions 8. Educated and Informed Public 9. Democratic Electoral System 10. Timely Infrastructure 11. Effective Foreign Policy (Neutrality / Alliances) 12
  51. 51. HOW TO REDUCE THE DEPTH OF THE VENEER? Do not: 1. Invest in quality institutions, processes and infrastructure 2. Complete a risk assessment of the future 3. Have a vision for the long-term 4. Have an overarching strategy to deliver on the vision (and align institutions) 5. Develop an action plan that is easy to both assess, hold implementers accountable, monitor and understand 13
  52. 52. 3. RISK ASSESSMENT THEORY OPTIONS A Thin Veneer A Thick Veneer x x A Significant A Significant Risk Risk (or two) (or two) = = New Zealand New Zealand in Crisis as Survivor 14
  53. 53. 3. RISK ASSESSEMENT THEORY INSTITUTIONAL MEMORY I tend to think my childhood as having been fairly normal. But there were a few telltale signs…. All the years I was growing up, we had gold hidden in the basement of our house. “Dad,” I would plead, “there are these things called banks …”. “You never know.” he would reply, thoughtfully holding up a gold bar, “One of these might buy a loaf of bread, or a sack of potatoes, some day.” And so the gold remained, a hedge against eventualities I could never quite wrap my head around. SON OF A HOLOCAUST SURVIVOR 15
  54. 54. 4. RISKS THREE STEPS 1. Where we have been in the past (our wisdom/baggage)? 2. Where and what are we now? What do we have to manage? 3. What is the future looking and feeling like? A: The World B: New Zealand 16
  55. 55. 4. RISKS FROM THE WORLD 1. Wild Cards (pandemic, financial collapse) 2. Technological Leaps (nuclear, medical, communication, carbon storage, robots, Antibiotic Resistance (leap backwards)) 3. Trends Over Time • Population Growth (growing population) • Environmental disaster (climate change) • Economic Power Changes (BRIC Countries) • Scarce Resources and Security of Supply (oil, water, food, infrastructure, transport) 4. Underlying Tensions • Religious (Islam/Christianity), Terrorism (individual rights/security) IMPLICATIONS: terrorism, war, poverty, disease, migration, invasion/takeover, an increase in multi-country agreements/protocols (and foreign policy) 17
  56. 56. 18
  57. 57. 19
  58. 58. WORLD POPULATION GROWTH 10 Total 8 6 Less Developed 4 Regions 2 Population More Developed Regions in Billions 1950 2000 2050 20
  59. 59. RELIGIOUS TENSIONS ARAB/ISRAEL CONFLICT ‘In essence, the conflict that exists today is no more than an old-style struggle for power, once again presented to mankind in semi-religious trappings. The difference is that, this time, the development of atomic power has imbued the struggle with a ghostly character; for both parties know and admit that, should the quarrel deteriorate into actual war, mankind is doomed.’ Einstein: A Final Message 1960 21
  60. 60. 4. RISKS SPECIFIC TO NEW ZEALAND 1. Wild Cards (environmental, pandemic) 2. Technological Leaps (agricultural) 3. Trends Over Time • Population Growth (ageing population) • Environmental disaster (climate change) • Economic Power Changes (Asia) • Scarce Resources and Security of Supply (oil, water, food, infrastructure, transport) • Wealth distribution expanding (crime, health) • Media (concentration, fragmentation, competition, democratisation) 4. Underlying Tensions (cultural tensions, local/central government, individual rights/security, land use, land access, public/private ownership) IMPLICATIONS: poverty, immigration, invasion/takeover, health, poor governance, weak infrastructure, pollution, economic downturn, damage to clean-green brand 22
  61. 61. 23
  62. 62. 24
  63. 63. 25
  64. 64. 26
  65. 65. 27
  66. 66. 28
  67. 67. 29
  68. 68. 30
  69. 69. NEW ZEALAND STATISTICS POPULATION CHANGES New Zealand Population 1951-2061 2021 In 2021 - More New Zealanders over 65 years of age than under 15 year olds 31
  70. 70. NEW ZEALAND STATISTICS RURAL DRIFT 1858 1908 1958 2008 60% 52% 26% 14% 32
  71. 71. NEW ZEALAND STATISTICS FIVE LARGEST EXPORTS By Type By Country 1958 2008 1958 2008 NB: Not Comparable Wool Dairy UK 56% Aust 21% Lamb Meat US 15% US 14% Butter Wood France 6% Japan 11% Beef Machinery Aust 4% China 5% Cheese Aluminium Germany 3% UK 5% 33
  72. 72. NEW ZEALAND STATISTICS FIVE LARGEST IMPORTS By Type By Country 1958 2008 1958 2008 Machinery Vehicles United Australia and Parts Kingdom Base Mechanical Australia Japan Metals Machinery Textile / Mineral USA China Clothing Fuels Food Electrical Germany USA Beverages Machinery Chemicals / Plastics India Germany Fertiliser 34
  73. 73. NEW ZEALAND A VISION …To be the first nation to be truly sustainable — across the four pillars of the economy, society, the environment, and nationhood.” (Clark, 2007) 35
  74. 74. www.sustainablefuture.info
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