2. Project 2058 – The Method
(a) Government (b) National Assets
Report 7 Exploring the Shared Goals of
Report 1 A National Sustainable
(c) Future Thinkers Māori (2010)
Development Strategy (2007) (c) Ideas
Online Video Interviews: World
Online Video Interviews: Report 8 Effective Māori Representation
Futures
World Futures in Parliament (2010)
Report 2New Zealand Central
(July 2008 and July 2009)
(2008,2009 and 2010)
Government Strategies
Research and Analysis
(2007) Report 9 Government-funded Science
Online Video Conversations: Ideas Under the Microscope (2011)
Onlinethe Future
about Video Conversations: Ideas
(December
Report 3 Supporting Local about 2008)
the Future
A: Report 10 The State of New
Government (2008) (2008)
Zealand’s Resources*
James Duncan Reference Library
Report 4 Institutions for (October 2009)
James Duncan Reference Library
The Future of Infrastructure in New
Part 1:
Sustainable Development (2008) (2009)
A History of Future Thinkers in New Zealand*
Zealand The Future of Food and Agriculture*
Report 5The Common Elements A History of Future Thinkers in New The State Sector: Looking Forward*
of an NSDS (2008) Zealand (2011)
(d) State of New Zealand’s Future
Strategy Scenarios
Part II:
B: Report 6 Four Possible Futures for
New Zealand in 2058 (2008)
Part III:
C: National Sustainable Development
Strategy for New Zealand*
3. A: Park Scenarios
National Park Year Est. Area (km2)
Abel Tasman 1942 225
Mount Cook 1953 707
Arthur's Pass 1929 1144
Egmont 1900 335
Fiordland 1952 12519
Kahurangi 1996 4520
Mount Aspiring 1964 3555
Nelson Lakes 1956 1018
Paparoa 1987 306
Raikiura 2002 1500
Te Urewera 1954 2127
Tongariro 1887 796
Westland Tai Poutini 1960 1175
11%
Whanganui 1986 742
Total Area in Parks 30669
4. Ministry for Recreation
Marilyn Fitty Park This is a public park. It
is open 24/7 and you can make as much noise here
as you like. It is all about fitness, hobbies, horses,
bike tracks & fishing etc. Area: 450 km2
As at 1 January 2040
5. Ministry for Economic Development
Coal Range Park
This is a private park. Rights to remove its
contents, whether it be trees or minerals, are
auctioned every two years by the Ministry. Area:
1500 km2
As at 1 January 2040
6. Ministry for Conservation
Happy Hiking Park
This is a public park. It is open 24/7 but you can only
walk, you cannot bring anything with wheels onto this
land. It is for current and future generations. Area:
800000 km2
As at 1 January 2040
7. Ministry for the Wilderness
Wild River Park This is a private park. It is
opened to the general public only one weekend a
year. Flora, fauna and non-human landscapes are
strictly protected by the Ministry.
Area: 1200000 km2
As at 1 January 2040
8. B: New Zealand Scenarios
Strategic Knowledge
Information
Data
9. Example 1: Long-term Fiscal Position 2009
Source: Treasury (2009) Challenges and Choices New
Zealand's Long-term Fiscal Statement. Page 32
11. Ethnicity
Ethnic Share Of New Zealand Population (percent)
Adapted from Statistics New Zealand, projections from series 6
%
90
80 8%
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
2006 2016 2026
European & Other Māori Asian Pacific
12. Example 3: Management of Resources
100
Alpine zone
80
Tussock
Scrub, wetlands and dunes Exotic
60
Total land area
grassland
Native forest
40
(%)
Exotic forest
20
Settlements
0 and crops
1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000
Main period Main period
of Maori expansion of European
expansion
13. Implications: Agriculture
Impacts
(Who pays for pollution, loss of diversity, loss of options)
Soil
Air Water
Quality Quantity
(Assurance) (Value Add)
14. Example 4: Energy Generation
Share of Total Energy Generation in 1980 Share of Total Primary Energy Generation in 2008
other gas other
oil
renewables 16% renewables
19%
0% 1%
oil coal gas
6% 20% 26%
biomass
biomass 6%
6%
geothermal
17%
geothermal hydropower coal
22% 26% 19%
hydropower
12%
15. Example 5: Earthquakes
Ten years of
shallow
35° S
earthquakes in
New Zealand
(Depths < 40 km)
Magnitude
3-4
4-5
5-6
6-7
40°
7-8
45°
16. 21 Drivers of Change
Primary Policy
Drivers Levers
8. Political systems and
1. Climate change institutions
2. Population and 9. Economic models
demographics 10. Management of
3. Ecosystems and ecosystems and
biodiversity resources
4. Energy 11. Infrastructure
5. Resources 12. Security and conflict
6. Values and beliefs
7. Justice and freedom Drivers of 13. Technology
14. Information,
Change learning and ideas
Wild Cards
15. Pandemic
16. Tsunami
17. Drought
18. Volcanoes and
earthquakes
19. Astronomical events
20. Extreme weather
21. Terrorism, Biological
and chemical
warfare
18. Resulting Themes
Responses from Powerful counties
– Self-sufficient, heavily armed and a fortress mentality or
– Serious engagement with all the problems of the planet
Choices for Small counties
– Option 1: Ignore
– Option 2: Become an intelligent country
• Adapt (monitor closely what is happening)
• Support global leadership (UN, WB, etc)
• Build alliances and networks
• Try to shape (lead by example)
19. C: StrategyNZ: Mapping our Future
Workshop March 2011
Pre-Workshop
Nation Dates (220 events)
Workbook (Report 12)
Future Studies Course (Dr Peter Bishop)
Workshop
Part 1 – Setting the global context
Part 2 – Where New Zealand is today
Part 3 – Preparing strategy maps
Part 4 – Presenting and judging strategy maps
Part 5 – Three workstreams
Part 6 – Presentations
to Members of Parliament
Post-Workshop
Strategy Map (Report 13)
Feedback (Working paper)
Reflections by Participants (e-book)
Nation Dates (440 events)
23. Strategy Map 1
Strategy name: occum am, erum culpa que inullibus, sinventi ant.
Participants included: Equam r erumqui blaborrum et aut dio magnis invendit pliamus, nem suntis
The objective (vision) the strategy is designed to
achieve is
Net quid que et que dio. Itas mos r e lam consed
Group
quas a quatem sitaspe liciis et per o ommolores
aliquia de erum r e cumquatur maximilit eius, to
omnia plab idebis aut veleserr o blabo. Ut volor es ne
lab incti dior ept aturepedis eos es mosseritia
occum am, erum culpa que inullibus, sinventi ant.
nimaximusam, voluptatur auditio sanducit aut.
Exercise
The niche (scope) in which the country intends
to operate is ...
poritior min r epel idest quid expera sum quis r epro
ommodio. Et il et optaten daecupt iumqui utem lat
dignis anisciis ear cia seque nonseque pr em fuga.
Et dest, sit lant aut est, alitati r em et ad quo endi
ut etur restest molendipis aligni optatur sequam,
sandae parcipitibus ni r em re vero cus ex eos sequi
bea quae voluptatis dolum et eicide et fugiantur?
Nosaped quo temolendem lantio dunt qui Output 2: Explore what New Zealand does dif ferently,
nihillorem volore vene pe porr ovidem et apitatem better or uniquely compar ed to others. Illustrate our
qui dolessit inciunt utatum ar ciaecum laboriberum Figure 1: Listener cover 2058 advantage through the design of a Coat of Arms for 2058.
sequistrum fuga. Nam hictotate cum ius ut
Output 1: Develop a vision and illustrate this thr ough a With respect to this, think of the emblems or symbols
Ihit, optatia speria voluptatque simolup tiorcover for the New Zealand Listener in 2058 that delivers us
este you believe represent New Zealand and where you would
i
the ends that the strategy is designed to achieve. position them in relation to each other.
am aut et aut asperit eici tem. Nestem nobit
occum am, erum culpa que inullibus, sinventi
ant. doluptatus et evenihit dolor e nonsequi il miligen
turiatur, adiscillo omnimoluptat molecti or epro que. Strategy Mapping for New Zealand
The means (advantage) by which the country
will achieve this objective is ... (see strategy map
occum am, erum culpa que inullibus, sinventi ant.
Citizens Results for the Country The Vision
Luptam fuga. Imposse optate nihicimus pra quas
ipsandaest, cus autempora quamus et magnimint
dolorruptas ex er ovit et labor es tianimaxim alique
nus vollit volenducius nonet es dolo Nus, utae. Figure 2: New Zealand Coat of Arms
Outcomes Based on Clear Market Positioi n
n g The Strategy
LEGISLATIVE COUNCIL CHAMBER PRESENT ATIONS AND ADDITIONAL P APERS | 11
Drivers
Driven by Processes and Activtie s
(Themes)
Enablers Built on Our Development Bases
Output 3: Design a strategy map for New Zealand that shows the scope, as in what New Zealand should focus on or not,
and what technologies and practices the country will employ .
32. The Legislative Council Chamber
• New Zealand's Upper House met from 1865 to 1951
• Second debating chamber - New Zealand equivalent of the British
House of Lords
• Now used for formal occasions, in particular for the state opening
of Parliament
37. Resulting Themes
• A place where talent wants to live
• Bi-cultural and Multi-cultural New Zealand
• Youth need a voice
• 3 year election cycle is too short
• Constitutional Review (See www.EmpowernNZ.co.nz)
• Need for a strategy
• Degree of urgency
• Need for greater participation
