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Four Possible Futures for New Zealand - WFS
 

Four Possible Futures for New Zealand - WFS

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This presentation was made by Wendy McGuinness, Chief Executive of the Sustainable Future Institute at the World Futures Conference, Chicago. 20 July 2009

This presentation was made by Wendy McGuinness, Chief Executive of the Sustainable Future Institute at the World Futures Conference, Chicago. 20 July 2009

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    Four Possible Futures for New Zealand - WFS Four Possible Futures for New Zealand - WFS Presentation Transcript

    • Four Possible Futures for New Zealand sustainablefuture.info
    • Sustainable Future Sustainable Future Institute Is an independent think tank specializing in research and policy analysis. Project 2058 The strategic aim is to promote integrated long-term thinking, leadership and capacity-building so that New Zealand can effectively explore and manage risks and opportunities over the next 50 years. The method to achieve this aim is to produce a National Sustainable Development Strategy. Presentation Part A: Being a New Zealander Part B: The Big Picture Part C: 21 Drivers of Change Part D: Scenarios
    • Strategic Knowledge Information Data
    • Project 2058 – The Method Part I: (a) New Zealand’s Government (b) New Zealand’s National Assets Research Report 1 A National Sustainable Development Strategy (August 2007) The State of Publicly Funded Science* Report 2 New Zealand Central Walking Backwards into the Future: Government Strategies Contributions of Māori knowledge, (August 2007) (c) Future Thinkers traditions and customary law to Online Video Interviews: World developing an NSDS* Report 3 Supporting Local Futures Government (March 2008) (July 2008 and July 2009) The State Sector: Reviewing the landscape* Report 4 Institutions for Online Video Conversations: Sustainable Development Ideas about the Future (October 2008) (December 2008) The State of Natural Resources* Past Future Thinkers: Exploring Report 5 The Common Elements the Long-term* The State of Critical Infrastructure in of an NSDS (October 2008) New Zealand* (d) State of New Zealand’s Future* Part II: Scenarios Report 6 Four Possible Futures for New Zealand in 2058 (December 2008) Part III: Strategy National Sustainable Development Strategy for New Zealand*
    • A: Being a New Zealander • .
    • Chief 1800 For fifty years he was the most feared fighting chief and at one stage controlled about ¼ of NZ. He was also considered to be the creator of the famous haka: Ka mate! Ka mate! Te Rauparaha (1760s-1849)
    • Treaty of Waitangi 1840 On 6 February 1840, the Treaty was signed between representatives of Queen Victoria and approx 500 Māori, (13 were women).
    • Maori King 1858 King Tawhiao (1822 – 1894)
    • Prime Minister 1873 Vogel implemented an immigration and works scheme designed to revive the economy and provide the pre-conditions of economic growth. In ten years he was able to bring about results that would otherwise have taken decades to achieve …and do more to put an end to hostilities than an army of ten thousand men. “We considered it very desirable, in a young country, that wealth should not be in the hands of a few capitalists [who]…would leave the Julius Vogel (1835-1899) country, and enjoy elsewhere the wealth so accumulated.”
    • Population
    • B: The Big Picture Of the 97 billion who have lived 90 billion have died Of the 7 billion alive 3 billion currently live on $2 or less a day Of the 4 billion living on more than $2 2 billion are financially and physically dependent So we represent the 2 billion earning, alive and able to make a difference (2 billion divided into 97 – we are the 2%)
    • From 40:60 to 60:40 In 2008, 3 billion made $2 or less per day. 2008 2008 Fifty years later, the developed countries & China grow old – while Africa & India 2058 2058 remains 2008 young.
    • Wild Cards What, When, Where, Why, How? Wild Card 1 Wild Card 2 Wild Card 3 Technology • Terrorism Health & • Info • Crime Safety • Nano • War • Antibiotic R. • Bio • Nuclear War • Pandemic Asteroids • Food Volcanoes • Water
    • C: 21 Global Drivers of Change Secondary Primary Change Agents Change Agents 8. Political systems and 1. Climate change institutions 2. Population and 9. Economic models demographics 10. Management of 3. Ecosystems and ecosystems and resources biodiversity 11. Infrastructure 4. Energy 12. Security and conflict 5. Resources 13. Technology 6. Values and beliefs 7. Justice and freedom Global Drivers 14. Information, learning and ideas of Change Wild Cards 15. Pandemic 16. Tsunami 17. Drought 18. Volcanoes and earthquakes 19. Astronomical events 20. Extreme weather 21. Terrorism, Biological and chemical warfare
    • Climate Change
    • Population New Zealand has one of the highest rates of combined immigration and emigration (population turnover) in the world.
    • Race Relations Ethnic Share Of New Zealand Population (percent) Adapted from Statistics New Zealand, projections from series 6 % 90 80 8% 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 2006 2016 2026 European & Other Māori Asian Pacific
    • Values and Beliefs Our Indigenous People 1. Whakapapa 2. Kaupapa 3. Kaitiakitanga 1. Me titiro whakamuri tatou. Kia mohio ai. Me pehea haere ki mua (Walking Backwards into the Future)
    • Management of Resources 100 Alpine zone 80 Tussock Scrub, wetlands and dunes Exotic 60 Total land area grassland Native forest 40 (%) Exotic forest 20 Settlements 0 and crops 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000 Main period Main period of Maori expansion of European expansion
    • Ecosystems and Biodiversity National Park Year Est. Area (km2) Abel Tasman 1942 225 Mount Cook 1953 707 Arthur's Pass 1929 1144 Egmont 1900 335 Fiordland 1952 12519 Kahurangi 1996 4520 Mount Aspiring 1964 3555 Nelson Lakes 1956 1018 Paparoa 1987 306 Raikiura 2002 1500 Te Urewera 1954 2127 Tongariro 1887 796 Westland Tai Poutini 1960 1175 11% Whanganui 1986 742 Total Area in Parks 30669
    • Energy Generation Share of Total Energy Generation in 1980 Share of Total Primary Energy Generation in 2008 other gas other oil renewables 16% renewables 19% 0% 1% oil coal gas 6% 20% 26% biomass biomass 6% 6% geothermal 17% geothermal hydropower coal 22% 26% 19% hydropower 12%
    • Damn the Dam Tiwai Point Aluminium Smelter uses 15% of New Zealand's electricity
    • Resources Total number of livestock per country per person as at Total number per 30 June 2007 person (Includes all cattle, sheep, and pigs) 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 New Australia Ireland Brazil* UK France China** USA India* Zealand
    • Exports & Imports 2008 Exports 2008 Imports Dairy 22% Fuels and oils 16% Meat 11.7% Machinery 13% Mineral Fuels 6.6% Motor vehicles 12% Wood 5.0% Electrical machinery 8.5% Machinery 4.8% Aluminium 3.6% Fruit 3.4%
    • Agriculture Impacts (Who pays for pollution, loss of diversity, loss of options) Soil Air Water Quality Quantity (Assurance) (Value Add)
    • Not Just Three Islands
    • International Treaties Number of treaties over time in New Zealand 50 40 30 20 10 0 1856 1866 1876 1886 1896 1906 1916 1926 1936 1946 1956 1966 1976 1986 1996 Part 1: Multilateral Treaties Part 2: Bilateral Treaties
    • Exclusive Economic Zone
    • Security and Conflict
    • Technology
    • Benchmarking UNDP, Human Development Report 2007/2008 and 2008 Update Total Includes Includes Includes Includes Human Education Index Disparity of RST expenditure GDP (per capita) Development income (% GDP) Index (ratio of richest 10% to poorest 10%) 1. Iceland (0.968) 1= Australia (0.993) 1. Japan (4.5) 1. Israel (4.46) 1. Luxembourg (60 228) 3. Australia (0.962) 1= New Zealand (0.993) 42. Ireland (9.4) 20. Australia (1.70) 16. Australia (31 794) 19. Italy (0.945) 6. Norway (0.991) 64. Macedonia (1.25) 25. Russia (1.17) 27. UAE (25 514) 20. New Zealand (0.944) 12. Ireland (0.978) 65. New Zealand (12.5) 26. New Zealand (1.16) 28. New Zealand (24 996) 21. UK (0.942) 18. UK (0.970) 66. Australia (12.5) 27. Ukraine (1.16) 29. Greece (23 381) 177. Sierra Leone (0.336) 177. Burkina Faso (0.255) 126. Bolivia (168.1) 91. Peru (0.10) 174. Malawi (667)
    • D: Scenarios Scenarios Possible 1 2 Probable 3 4 Possible 2009 2030 2058
    • The Team
    • Well NZ Well World Poor Poor
    • Indicators Responses of Powerful counties – Self-sufficient, heavily armed and a fortress mentality – Serious engagement with all the problems of the planet Responses of Small counties – Disrupt – Ignore – Adapt / Innovate • Monitor closely what is happening • Support global leadership (UN, WB, etc) • Build alliances (e.g. State of Australia, Pacific Union) – Leadership - lead by example
    • Small countries like New Zealand might have a limited ability to influence world events… …but we can still shape the future.
    • New Zealand will never be the puppeteer… …but we can be part of the audience, and that means we can decide to give a standing ovation or boo the performance.
    • We can show global players how changes should be made – not because they have to listen to us… …but because small countries have put in place something that powerful countries want.
    • New Zealand needs a ‘National Strategy’ to optimise our future, to align our industry, to reinforce our national brand and to be an example of what is possible - not because we have to, but because we want what it can deliver