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Foresight in New Zealand
Foresight in New Zealand
Foresight in New Zealand
Foresight in New Zealand
Foresight in New Zealand
Foresight in New Zealand
Foresight in New Zealand
Foresight in New Zealand
Foresight in New Zealand
Foresight in New Zealand
Foresight in New Zealand
Foresight in New Zealand
Foresight in New Zealand
Foresight in New Zealand
Foresight in New Zealand
Foresight in New Zealand
Foresight in New Zealand
Foresight in New Zealand
Foresight in New Zealand
Foresight in New Zealand
Foresight in New Zealand
Foresight in New Zealand
Foresight in New Zealand
Foresight in New Zealand
Foresight in New Zealand
Foresight in New Zealand
Foresight in New Zealand
Foresight in New Zealand
Foresight in New Zealand
Foresight in New Zealand
Foresight in New Zealand
Foresight in New Zealand
Foresight in New Zealand
Foresight in New Zealand
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Foresight in New Zealand

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  • 1. Presentation1.  Sustainable Future Institute2.  Context - Korea/New Zealand3.  Three Sights4.  Creating Intelligent Countries5.  Government Foresight in New Zealand6.  Past Initiatives7.  StrategyNZ: Mapping our Future8.  Lessons Learnt
  • 2. 1. The Sustainable Future Institute www.sustainablefuture.info     A privately-funded non-partisan think tank working for the public good, contributing strategic foresight through evidence- based research and policy analysis.  
  • 3. Project 2058 – The Method (a) Government (b) NaGonal Assets    Report 7 Exploring the Shared Goals of  Report 1 A Na?onal Sustainable   (c) Future Thinkers  Māori (2010)  Development Strategy (2007)  (c) Ideas      Online Video Interviews: World  Online Video Interviews:    Report 8 Effec?ve Māori Representa?on  Futures  World Futures  in Parliament (2010)  Report 2 New Zealand Central (July 2008 and July 2009)  Government Strategies (2008,2009 and 2010) Strategy Scenarios 





































Research
and
Analysis
     Report 9 Government‐funded Science  (2007) Online Video Conversa?ons: Ideas  Under the Microscope (2011)  Online Video Conversa?ons: Ideas  about the Future            (December  Part
1:

 Report 3 Supporting Local about the Future  2008)  Report 10 The State of New Zealand’s  Government (2008) (2008)    Resources*  James Duncan Reference Library  Report 4 Institutions for (October 2009)  James Duncan Reference Library  Sustainable Development (2008)   (2009)  The Future of Infrastructure in New  A History of Future Thinkers in New  Zealand*  Zealand     The Future of Food and Agriculture*  Report 5 The Common Elements A History of Future Thinkers in New  The State Sector: Looking Forward*  of an NSDS (2008) Zealand (2011)  (d) State of New Zealand’s Future  
 Part
II:
  Report 6 Four Possible Futures for New Zealand in 2058  (2008)  
Part
III:
 Na?onal Sustainable Development Strategy for  New Zealand* 
  • 4. 2. Context (i) Physical Analytics South Korea  New Zealand Land Area (km²)  96,920  267,710  3 ?mes Coast (km²)  2,413  15, 134  6 ?mes Borders  North Korea  None Natural  coal   natural gas Resources   tungsten  iron ore sand   graphite  coal   molybdenum  ?mber  lead  hydropower  hydropower  gold  poten?al  limestone 
  • 5. 2. (ii) Man-made Analytics South Korea  New Zealand  Year Popula?on  48, 988, 830  4, 291, 900  2011  11 ?mes Fer?lity Rate  1.192  2.18  2008 Unemployment Rate  3.2%  4.2%  2008 Life Expectancy  79.4 years  80.2 years  2007 Income inequality:   0.312  0.335  2005 Gini co‐efficient (level) GDP per Capita  $27, 657  $27, 036  2008 Gross domes?c expenditure  3.210%  1.206%  2008 on R+D  1/3   Source: (OECD, n.d.) 
  • 6. New Zealand’s Exclusive Economic Zone    For every New Zealander•  1.30 km2 seabed (0.006 Korean) (217 times)•  0.06 km2 land (0.002 Korean) (30 times)
  • 7. Number oflivestock bycountry perperson
  • 8.  3. Three Sights1.  Hindsight2.  Insight3.  Foresight
  • 9. Hindsight  Sovereignty  SeSlement  Rights, Roles, RepresentaGon   & ResponsibiliGes  Social Reform  IdenGty  Social JusGce  Economic Reform 
  • 10. Insight and ForesightToday, 3 billion made $2 or less per day.  40:60 Fiky years later, the developed  60:40 countries & China grow old – while Africa & India get younger. 
  • 11. ForesightProbable future – Forecasting and prediction (Status Quo)Possible futures – Scenarios, risks and opportunities (Explorative)Preferred futures – Strategies, propelled by leadership (Visionary)
  • 12. Foresight is foreknowledge (1900)One Hundred Years Hence Although the public is wont to regard predic7ons with an amount of skep7cism…there is absolutely no doubt to reason the accuracy of the foreknowledge which comes from reading the past and the trend of current events. Progress cannot be denied….   P J O’Regan, August 1900, New Zealand 
  • 13.  Foresight: Where are we going? (2011) 1.  Climate change and energy  2.  Massive debt (AKA ‘The Great Correc?on’)  3.  Water and food shortages/Environmental  issues  4.  Five simultaneous game‐changing tech  revolu?ons, tele‐everything  5.  Luddites/Individual destruc?ve power  6.  Robo?cs/Machine intelligence/ Employment  7.  Humans merging with the machines  NASA Chief ScienGst Dennis M. Bushnell  
  • 14. Wild Cards Disasters –largest andmost recent
  • 15. The Future… Snowden & Boone (2007). A Leader’s Framework  for Decision Making. Harvard Business Review. 
  • 16. Watch for Weak Signals Responses from Powerful counGes  –  Self‐sufficient, heavily armed and a fortress mentality or  –  Serious engagement with all the problems of the planet  Choices for Small counGes  –  OpGon 1: Ignore  –  OpGon 2: Become an intelligent country  •  Adapt (monitor closely what is happening)  •  Support global leadership (UN, WB, etc)  •  Build alliances  and networks  •  Try to shape (lead by example) 
  • 17.  4. How do we create intelligent countries?   Assumption 1: Global Problems requires Global Solutions (GS)Assumption 2: GS requires Global Intelligence (GI)Assumption 3: GI = National Intelligence (NI) x 195 countries Then the aim is to increase NI+ NI+ = (Hindsight x Insight x Foresight) population
  • 18. Who are the Intelligent Countries?
  • 19. 5. Government Initiatives in 2011 1.  Statement of Long-term Fiscal Position 2.  Productivity Commission 3.  Welfare Working Group – ‘Future Liability Approach’ 4.  Futures Forum 5.  Government-funded Research 6.  Local Government Long-term Plans  
  • 20. 6. Past Initiatives
  • 21. Four-stepModelfor PlanningFuture-thinkingInitiatives
  • 22. 7. StrategyNZ: Mapping our Future Workshop March 2011   Pre‐Workshop          Na?on Dates (220 events)          Workbook (Report 12)          Future Studies Course (Dr Peter Bishop)  Workshop  Part 1 – Seong the global context  Part 2 – Where New Zealand is today  Part 3 – Preparing strategy maps  Part 4 – Presen?ng and judging strategy maps  Part 5 – Three workstreams  Part 6 – Presenta?ons    to Members of Parliament   I()#*+%,-,.(>%45(-5.+2<=>%?-,,#*+%@(%A@5@(.%( N-(;9#,-*5%A..71-9)( 3(2%4-(5.* !"#$%&# Post‐Workshop 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             Strategy Map (Report 13) 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        Feedback (Working paper) 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        Reflec?ons by Par?cipants (e‐book)  +*%))$#5#-+$,"($%**#/4#4$*"#$#6#/*$%+$1%-*&3&1%/*+D$:##45%3.$-#3#&6#4$)-($*"#$+8-6#2$"%+$5##/$ +8%-&+#4$%/4$4&6&4#4$&/*($*"#$)(99(,&/0$)&6#$+#3*&(/+> UD$ :##45%3.$(/$*"#$J(-.5((. ND$ :##45%3.$(/$*"#$:8*8-#$7*84&#+$Q(8-+# QD$ :##45%3.$(/$*"#$7&Z$M%-*+$()$*"#$J(-.+"(1 LD$ :##45%3.$(/$*"#$;/+*&*8*#E+$M#-)(-%/3# [D$ :##45%3.$(/$:(99(,K81$U3*&6&*2  Na?on Dates (440 events)  WORKING PAPER: STRATEGYNZ: MAPPING OUR FUTURE PARTICIPANT FEEDBACK | 1 WORKING PAPER 2011/16
  • 23. Strategy Pyramid *  *  * 
  • 24. Strategy Map for Brazil
  • 25. … From previous slide – Strategy Map for Brazil
  • 26. Surveysociety
  • 27. Participants10 groupsX1 designerX1 college student
  • 28. -#*)"/(?".%$(>%)?",/%1"%?()",/" ()*+,(-%=8-%8,(%8=%0/(%+-89G)? The Designers
  • 29. (i) Vision
  • 30. (ii) Strategic Intent
  • 31. (iii) Strategy Map
  • 32. Resulting Themes•  A place where talent wants to live •  Bi‐cultural and Mul?‐cultural New Zealand •  Youth need a voice •  3 year elec?on cycle is too short •  Cons?tu?onal Review (See www.EmpowernNZ.co.nz) •  Need for a strategy •  Degree of urgency •  Need for greater par?cipa?on 
  • 33.  8. Lessons Learnt Work programme•  Secure funding critical•  Research question needs the right balance of focus and flexibility•  Ability to rewrite/update methodology•  Give yourself lots of time •  Research data can be hard to find •  Analysis uses data to create information for strategic knowledge •  External review is time-consuming and •  Communication involves peopleReport Writing•  Use designers to make your ideas come to life•  Mapping data – assurance v communication•  Provide a number of ways to commutate ideasEvents•  Get the right people in the room•  What you do before the event is as important afterwards

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