Everything we do is about enabling people to save energy and reduce carbon emissions in the most cost effective way possible; either directly through our impartial advice network or indirectly through our work with partners. Our work can be divided into four areas: Insight and knowledge about energy saving Consumer advice Helping local authorities and communities Providing quality assurance for goods and services We go into more detail about these four areas later in the presentation.
12,600 homes refurbished a week. The Climate Change Act (2008) requires that by 2050, the UK’s annual CO2 emissions should by reduced by 80% compared to their 1990 levels. Home energy use is responsible for over a quarter of UK CO2 emissions which contribute to climate change. It therefore makes sense to aim to reduce CO2 emissions from all dwellings by 80% as part of the UK’s long term emissions reduction targets. Ultimately, by 2050 all dwellings will need to achieve an energy performance rating in the range of a high EPC band B to band A if we are to reach our target of a 80% cut in CO2 emissions across the entire housing stock
Projects / triggers
Issues related to measure installation is the next area we’ve focussed on. Installation quality is key – as we all know, you can have the best product but if it’s put in wrongly, the expected savings won’t materialise. This is particularly important with unfamiliar products. For example, we’ve seen in projects using new materials such as aerogel that the installation has often been less than perfect. No need to mention which project this one was! We would say that DECC needs to ensure that Green Deal installers can benefit from ongoing training, because it’s a fast moving marketplace and new products will continue to appear rapidly. Without appropriate training there is a risk for both consumers and installers that expected savings won’t be made.
Even with a perfect installation, there’s a good likelihood of encountering problems on site with the dwelling itself. Going back to the Sheffield Ecoterrace project, we found that the attic floor joists we so badly weakened by various notches cut out for cabling and pipework that supplementary joists were required. This involved structural calculations followed by ordering and installation – altogether causing a major delay to the project, through no fault of the installers. It’s important that the Green Deal engages with these kind of issues in order to ensure consumer expectations are met, and the business case for installers stacks up. The consultation invites comment on training for installers, and in our view it’s important that these type of issues are included in accredited training schemes. This also relates to the initial Green Deal assessment, which the consultation says will simply consist of an improved EPC survey, and occupancy survey. I think there’s a question mark whether this would be enough to identify these kind of issues – perhaps we could pick up on this during the workshop later today. Bespoke solutions, Making good
One of the most valuable areas of evidence we’re gathering relates to the actual efficiency of the refurbishment process. This chart shows data gathered from the Victorian Terrace refurbishment here on BRE’s site. The interesting thing is that this is based on real measurements, and it allows us to actually quantify how many hours were used productively, and how many were wasted. You can see that for example around 50 hours were wasted during the insulation works, out of a total of about 250 hours overall. So one fifth of the time was wasted. We also tracked the reasons for this delay, which were mainly to do with installer unfamiliarity with new products, and also the fact that products were delivered too soon to site, which had to be returned and then subsequently re-delivered at a later date. These kind of numbers, scaled up across the housing stock to millions of dwellings, really show the impact that better working practices could bring.
I wanted to start off by demonstrating the kind of impact which bringing so much data together can have. This is a cost versus CO2 saving curve, based on 18 projects. This was amongst the best data available prior to the refurbishment portal. This kind of data is crucial because it lets us estimate the likely budget level which is necessary to achieve a given CO2 saving. So for example [click] I’ve highlighted on screen the estimated cost for an 80% CO2 saving – which on the basis of this data is just over £50k. And of course the curve can be used in reverse too – so you can estimate the likely CO2 saving you can achieve for any given budget.
Here’s another curve. This is the original curve from the refurbishment portal launch back in June last year.
And finally here is the current portal dataset used to create an updated curve. As you can see we have a lot more data now than when we launched.
Let’s put the two refurbishment portal curves together so we can get an idea of how things may have changed in the last seven months. The first thing to note is that the new curve now extends much further than the original. This is because we have more data to draw upon. Let’s first look at how our estimated cost to achieve an 80% CO2 reduction compares to the previous best estimate we just discussed, which was approximately 50k. [click] So on the basis of the initial portal dataset from seven months ago we were seeing a much lower cost emerging to achieve 80% - around £36-37k. And now let’s see how that picture has shifted now we’ve added further data [click] We’re now seeing the estimated cost rise – it’s about £46k. So we’ve got a much more robust picture of the costs and savings potential – obviously at a very high level, but this kind of data doesn’t exist anywhere else. This is the kind of information which makes the NRC a powerful voice when government is considering things like the Green Deal.
But let’s go back again and dig a little deeper into the data. We’ve seen a few trends emerging in refurbishment projects over the past couple of years, one of which has been the kind of no-expenses spared flagship projects such as the Camden Ecohouse. For those who aren’t familiar with the project, it achieved an 80% CO2 reduction, but the budget was around £330k. Alongside these there are many other projects where extensive donated materials have kept the overall cost artificially low. There are also DIY labour of love type projects where the owners have minimised cost by carrying out most of the work themselves. And finally there are many projects which remain works in progress – for example the kinds of projects where 5% CO2 reduction has been achieved, but there clearly remains more upgrading to be done in the near future. They are in no sense finalised. Obviously every project provides useful data – but if we want to get a very clear look at the current costs of upgrading to 80% savings, it makes sense to strip some of the less relevant projects out. The graph on screen shows a new cost curve, which excludes any projects with sub-60% CO2 savings, as well as those where substantial free materials were donated. [click] looking at the costs with these exclusions, we’re getting a result of £49k to reach an 80% CO2 reduction. This gives us a more accurate idea of the current costs, but it’s also relatively close to the original figure of £46k we derived. We feel this is a good indication that there is now enough data in the portal database to give consistent answers and iron out any anomolies in the data.
What if we compare costs across different regions? We are now starting to build a collection of cost data which can be split by geographic region. This is at a very early stage but it should in time allow us to appraise cost effectiveness in different parts of the country. [click] For example we can see that whilst a boiler and controls package costs around £2.5k in Sheffield, a comparable purchase costs a full £2k more in London [click]. We’re looking at data from properties with the same build form (mid terrace) and comparable floor area. [click] To take another example, the costs for photovoltaic panels – standardised per kWp rating – appear to be several thousand higher in Sheffield than in London. This is something we’re beginning to put together and we’d stress that additional data is required before drawing firm conclusions. However, with more data we will be able to look at the detailed cost effectiveness of different measures in different parts of the country.
Example: People: Trigger points Amongst other things, our trigger points research highlights the types of householders likely to be considering refurbishment activity, the level of activity they are looking to undertake and the extent to which they would stretch their refurbishment budgets to incorporate low carbon improvements. When combined with Experian’s mosaic we can begin to plot the areas that represent the biggest market for retrofit activity.
Sustainable refurbishment at scale - By Stephen Passmore, Energy Saving Trust
Sustainable refurbishment at ScaleStephen PassmoreEnergy Saving Trust
Energy Saving TrustWe are the UK’s leading We’ve saved £1.5 billion onimpartial organisation helping people’s fuel bills and 140 millionpeople save energy and reduce tonnes (lifetime savings) of CO2carbon emissions since 1994. Providing quality assurance for Expert insight and knowledge goods, services and installers about energy saving Helping local authorities and Supporting consumers communities to save energy to take action 25 May 2012 2
The headline retrofit challenge Home energy use is responsible for over a quarter of UK carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions Staged target of 29% cut in CO2 from homes by 2020 By 2050 all homes will need to achieve an energy performance rating in the range of a high B if we are to reach our target of a 80% cut in CO2 emissions across the entire housing stock 3
Numerous approachesProjects / trigger points Whole House Street or neighbourhood - City / region Area based approach 25 May 2012 5
National Refurbishment Centre – Mission: To support the practical delivery of green refurbishment and retrofit in the UK, based on evidence from a nationwide demonstration network of exemplar buildings. – Aim: To foster a more joined-up approach to finding the practical measures needed to refurbish buildings in volume. www.rethinkingrefurbishment.com
The NRC Partnership www.rethinkingrefurbishment.com
Trigger points project approach• Overall: to establish the home improvement occasions that will be the best triggers for consumers to consider undertaking energy saving alterations at the same time 18
Barriers to energy saving alterations • Energy saving is rarely stated as a primary motivation for home improvements –Number of other factors come before this, such as price, looks, quality, convenience • Most of the sample claimLOW AWARENESS LOOKS / STYLEIAL COST to be keen toeption that energy saving alterations are very costlyt want to make long-term investment about energyLACK OF EVIDENCE learn more - want the money in their pocketsaving alterations now Will these changes really save much energy?t believe will add value to their property –Interested in helping the environment, even if onlyalready be over ‘budget’ – don’t want to go further as a secondary motivation INERTIAmove in next few years so investment will be wasted INCONVENIENCE –Very keen to learn any potential cost savings they could make 19
22% households consideringrefurbishment projects in next 3 years Total home Projects considering owners undertaking in the next 325.7 million households in UK years… (1,287) % Fitting a new kitchen 10 Home owners account for 70% of the population Fitting a new bathroom / 9 cloakroom (17.5 mil households) Fitting double glazing 6 Building a brick extension 5 22% are Converting the loft 4 considering refurbishments Refurbishing the entire 2 in the next 3 property years (3.9 mil Retiling the roof / building households) 2 a new roof Installing a conservatory 2 Rewiring / upgrading the 2 electricity Installing central heating 1 None of these 78 20 Source: Ipsos Nat Rep CapiBus – wtd data
Trigger points Young couples Young children Growing children Older children Empty nesters •SingleOpportunity for influence Driven by Preparing for s Undertaking Starting a family, retirement. modernisation Strong functional and emotive functional need to moving home, Interested in projects. Lower refurbishment need - running out of update their making property specific projects - budgets, willing to space. Involved in higher value properties. more upgrading the stretch but need a projects. Recognise the benefit of Considering fewer contemporary, heating, adding a lot more future proofing and reducing CO2 projects overall adding value conservatory convincing Considering room refurbs and see the benefit in saving on energy bills and creating warmer rooms Stronger Lower commitment to the environment Have already Interested Greater commitment to installed some primarily in commitment to environment Higher budgets measures – warmth and the environment Interested in all forms of retrofit but interested in lower comfort Limited budgets cost measures pre -930s need convincing (dwelling) reluctant to add energy saving measures, post 1930s could be persuaded