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World Forum Innovation Exchange Slides Simon Mauger 05.01.2010
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World Forum Innovation Exchange Slides Simon Mauger 05.01.2010

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  • Which I believe has not helped our thinking in relation to technology and change and its influence on how we learn, often seeing technology as simply gearing up existing practice: we have, for a whole raft of other reasons too, tended to think that it is all about the technology as opposed to the nature of its adoption - look at SMS.

World Forum Innovation Exchange Slides Simon Mauger 05.01.2010 World Forum Innovation Exchange Slides Simon Mauger 05.01.2010 Presentation Transcript

  • Learning and Technology World Forum Innovation Exchange Exchange 2 - Preparing for the Future Simon Mauger Programme Director, NIACE
  • Futures Thinking and Horizon Scanning in educational practice and lifelong learning
  • Horizon scanning is…… Looking ahead – beyond usual timescales Looking across – beyond usual sources Looking back – Re-examing assumptions beyond a ‘single expected future’ to a ‘range of possible futures’ to consider implications for today’s decisions and directions … . and the educational point is - resilience and adaptability
  • ‘ Thinking about the future of lifelong learning - what are the changes you foresee in physical learning environments, technologies and people's behaviour?’ Let the ‘future’ be 2025
  • With about 200 people - Sector Post-compulsory Education 46 % Culture & Arts 10 % Architecture & Planning 6 % Schools 1 % Business & Technology Entrepreneurs 6 % Government & Regional Agencies 7 % Learner Organisations 8 % Other 15 % Media 2 %
  • Your particular expertise/interest % Arts/Culture 16 % Architecture 9 % Business Development 9 % Business Management 11 % Community Development 19 % Design 6 % Economics 2 % Education Delivery 36 % Education Policy 41 % Media Production 3 % Media Policy 4 % Politics 8 % Technology 18 % Other 14 %
    • Key Question
    • Thinking about the future of lifelong learning - what are the changes you foresee in physical learning environments, technologies and people's behaviour?
    • Instructions:
    • Please avoid bringing up more than one main point in a single answer.
    • You can provide as many points as you wish.
    • When you save your response, you will get an empty form and you can make another point.
    • Press ‘save answer’ to save each point.
    • Your answers are listed and you can edit them if you like.
    • When you feel you have completed all the points you wish to make, then press the ‘Proceed’ button to move on.
    • __________________________________________________________________________
    • Your point in brief (60 characters left) ..................................................................................
    • Please elaborate your thinking (1500 characters left):
    • What about this?
    • Think that this is the year 2025. We’re looking for your ideas around how learning infrastructures now work - the realities, the opportunities and the problems. A short prompt appears below the main question. If that does not bring any ideas to mind, you can get a new Prompt by reloading the page (ctrl-R).
    • There are 7 Prompts.
    • Thinking about the future of lifelong learning - what are the changes you foresee in physical learning environments, technologies and people's behaviour?
    • Who’s missing?
    • _________________________________________________
    • Your point in brief (60 characters left):
    • Please elaborate your thinking (1500 characters left):
    • Thinking about the future of lifelong learning - what are the changes you foresee in physical learning environments, technologies and people's behaviour?
    • Non-biological intelligence
    • __________________________________________________________________
    • Your point in brief (60 characters left):
    • Please elaborate your thinking (1500 characters left):
      • Wild Horizons
      • Here we are looking for wild ideas, guesses, unexpected associations. A short prompt appears below the main question. If that does not bring any new challenges to mind, you can get a new prompt by reloading the page (ctrl-R).
      • There are 6 different prompts.
  • Phase 1 : Collection of thoughts and ideas
    • The main question:
    • Thinking about the future of lifelong learning - what are the changes you foresee in physical learning environments, technologies and people's behaviour?
    • Participants provided 544 well thought out ideas
    • Text Mining software was used to analyse:
      • What are dominant clustering takes place in Phase 1
      • 330 Ideas out of total 544 were chosen for prioritisation in phase 2
      • Ideas are interpreted and gathered into categories
  • TOP 25 key-words in Phase 1 contributions = What respondents are thinking about spontaneously (excluded question words: learning, environment, people, technology) Presence of issue in all received comments
  • Relations between key words in phase 1 material (excluded question words: learning, environment, people, technology) Numbers between boxes indicate amount of connections
  • All collected Ideas were analysed in terms of ’gathering’ into Categories Design Environment Inequality Lifelong Mobility Quality Resourcesn Behaviour Capability Change Services Cost Society Teaching Technology Unknown
  • Phase 2 : Prioritisation of Ideas
    • Phase 2 had separate prioritisation pages with themes
      • 1. significance to the future of lifelong learning
      • 2. likelihood to happen
      • 3. by timeline
    • For each theme the participant had separate random selections of 26 Ideas from the database of 330 Ideas
    Significance prioritisation Likelihood prioritisation Timelining profile
  • Prioritisation grid report structure
    • Most important issues
    • Highest significance or
    • likelihood
    • High agreement
    • Not important issues
    • Low significance or
    • likelihood
    • High agreement
    • Emerging or fading away
    • type issues
    • Low significance or
    • likelihood
    • High deviation in
    • opinions
    • Potential issues
    • Medium high significance
    • or likelihood
    • More deviation in opinions
  • Significance by Category level Higher Ranking Lower Higher Agreement Lower
    • Events and shocks that could impact on, change and add to the existing notions of Dimensions of Uncertainty.
    • Which Signals may be considered important but not well-understood/recognised.
    • How to increase knowledge and understanding of these Signals.
    Developing debate on …. ?
  • The nature of change : About new technological development in itself or the influence on or creation of ‘behaviours’? Amplifying existing behaviour - ‘status quo +’ Fundamentally altering existing behaviour - ‘disruptive’
  • Change Signal 4: Learning intelligence Issues The technological capacity to develop computer-based 'thinking systems' – such as the semantic web's development of intelligent web-based analysis systems for the management of lifelong learning – will grow and may revolutionise the idea of personalised learning. Many services that are currently provided for learners by human agents may be provided by intelligent agents in the future. This will challenge but also free up capacity in teachers. Augmentation of individual brain capacity will become increasingly possible and contentious.
    • Key contributing ideas
    • The role of what/where intelligence is will be questioned
    • Addressing this issue will require changes in the interaction between:
    • Technology
    • Space
    • People
  • Change: Uncertainties for the future?
    • How disruptive will a shift in power towards the learner be?
    • What will learners pay for in future?
    • What ‘commodities’ will education providers deal in?
    • Will ‘learning’ cease to be a formal, structured activity?
    • To what extent will learning institutions still need their own learning spaces?
    • Will intelligent computer-based systems take over the management of individuals’ lifelong learning?
    • Will brain augmentation become a standard proposition or a new form of inequality?
  • And we wrote a series of scenario ‘vignettes’ to suggest ‘narratives’ around the uncertainties, possibilities and viewpoints.
  • http://web.me.com/theomauger/IFLL_Scenarios/Home.html
  • Simon Mauger Simon Mauger