© 2012 VALIENT AUTOMOTIVE MARKET RESEARCH
Scott D. Upham                Scott D. Upham                President & Chief Executive Officer, Valient Automotive Market...
Global Economic Outlook - Positive    Global Economic Outlook – Positive     •    Despite a slow U.S. economic recovery im...
Global Economic Outlook - Negative    Global Economic Outlook – Negative     •    Growth coming to a stand-still in Wester...
Near Term                                                        Technological Innovations    Near Term Technological Inno...
Near Term                                                        Technological Innovations    Near Term Technological Inno...
Near Term                                                         Technological Innovations    Near Term Technological Inn...
Near Term                                                           Technological Innovations    Near Term Technological I...
Long Term                                                      Technological Innovations    Long Term Technological Innova...
Long Term                                                        Technological Innovations    Long Term Technological Inno...
Long Term                                                         Technological Innovations    Long Term Technological Inn...
Long Term                                                       Technological Innovations    Long Term Technological Innov...
Long Term                                                        Technological Innovations    Long Term Technological Inno...
Long Term                                                      Technological Innovations    Long Term Technological Innova...
© 2012 VALIENT AUTOMOTIVE MARKET RESEARCH   PAGE 15
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Automotive Market Research Council Spring Conference

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A presentation of future automotive trends & technologies to the AMRC in Las Vegas, NV on April 30, 2012

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Automotive Market Research Council Spring Conference

  1. 1. © 2012 VALIENT AUTOMOTIVE MARKET RESEARCH
  2. 2. Scott D. Upham Scott D. Upham President & Chief Executive Officer, Valient Automotive Market Research Scott D. Upham is the founder, president & chief executive officer of Valient Market Research, a worldwide leader in consumer and business-to-business market research, market forecasting and competitive intelligence. Based in Rochester, New York, Valient ’s Automotive division provides primary and secondary market research, competitive intelligence and forecasting services to over one hundred automotive industry firms. Upham is an automotive industry thought leader, forecaster, journalist and a senior consultant to several automotive industry CEO’s. During his twenty-four year career, Upham has provided confidential management advisory services to several leading vehicle manufacturers, Tier 1-2-3 parts suppliers and private equity firms around the world. His areas of expertise include automotive light vehicle production forecasting, primary and secondary competitive intelligence, merger & acquisition assessment, new market entry strategies, technology migration analysis, consumer market research and automotive business-to-business market research. Upham serves on the Western New York Board of Directors of the Society of Competitive Intelligence Professionals (SCIP). Upham is an oft-quoted source to major media outlets including the Wall Street Journal, Handelsblatt, Investors Business Daily, Nikkei Weekly, New York Times, Washington Post, Automotive News, USA Today and National Public Radio. Prior to founding Valient Solutions, Upham was senior vice president of Harris Interactive’s Automotive & Transportation division, senior director of J.D. Power and Associates Global Forecasting division and president and chief executive officer of Providata Inc. Upham began his career in NAAO purchasing at Ford Motor Company and held senior marketing posts with automotive suppliers including TRW Automotive, Kelsey-Hayes and Takata Corporation. Upham earned a Bachelor of Science degree in public relations from Eastern Michigan University in Ypsilanti, Michigan and completed graduate studies from Pennsylvania State University in State College, Pennsylvania.© 2012 VALIENT AUTOMOTIVE MARKET RESEARCH PAGE 2
  3. 3. Global Economic Outlook - Positive Global Economic Outlook – Positive • Despite a slow U.S. economic recovery impacted by high unemployment rates and depressed housing values, North American production volumes continue to rise. • In the near term, expect volumes to continue to rise as unemployment decreases to 7-8% level and sub-prime lending environment improves. Post-2012 Election optimism could provide a boost as well. • Continued strong growth in light-vehicle production continues in BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India & China) countries. • Recovery from 2011’s Japanese earthquake/tsunami is almost 100% completed. Honda, Toyota continue to struggle in the North American market to regain market share.© 2012 VALIENT AUTOMOTIVE MARKET RESEARCH PAGE 3
  4. 4. Global Economic Outlook - Negative Global Economic Outlook – Negative • Growth coming to a stand-still in Western Europe due to the continued debt crisis in several countries including Greece, Spain and Italy. • Potential Israel-Iran conflict could have a large effect on near-term consumer demand due to large fuel price increases, regional instability and oil shortages. • Elongated vehicle retention cycle in the U.S. is hampering near term production volume and sales growth. Consumers are holding onto vehicles longer than at anytime since the early 1990’s. • European Union stability is wavering and could have a large impact on production volumes if current fractures lead to EU departures.© 2012 VALIENT AUTOMOTIVE MARKET RESEARCH PAGE 4
  5. 5. Near Term Technological Innovations Near Term Technological Innovations – 2013-2020 • New “Black Box” vehicle performance recording device legislation gaining traction in Congress and within European Union committees. • In the U.S., Congress is also debating the merits of a national texting while driving ban. • Other safety innovations appearing in the near-term: • Windshield and in-between occupant airbag modules • Occupant injury mitigation systems – seat angle/position sensors, seatbelt pretensioners and inflatable head rests. • Exterior pedestrian protection airbag systems – hood lift and inflatable bladder varieties. • Emergency power protection – roof embedded solar panels for electricity generation for emergency services. • Self-repair tires.© 2012 VALIENT AUTOMOTIVE MARKET RESEARCH PAGE 5
  6. 6. Near Term Technological Innovations Near Term Technological Innovations – 2013-2020 • Further customizable vehicle solutions including: • Seat position, angle, lumbar and inflatable seating comfort bladder systems. Lear, JCI and Magna developing this technology now. • HVAC controls using body heat and stored preference information. • Audio system configuration customization based upon music or content type – base, treble, volume, surround, etc. Bose, Sony, Panasonic and several premium brands developing this technology. • Coordinated safety system performance – airbag, seatbelt, steering wheel, braking, traction control and vehicle stability systems. Bosch, TRW and Continental leading the way.© 2012 VALIENT AUTOMOTIVE MARKET RESEARCH PAGE 6
  7. 7. Near Term Technological Innovations Near Term Technological Innovations – 2013-2020 • Cellular phone-based vehicle customization trends – Personal Vehicle Customization Key • Microsoft, Google and Apple developing personal vehicle customization key that is based in your PDA or cell phone. • Will automatically adjust all in-vehicle systems to your personal preferences including your seat’s position, angle, temperature, lumbar and comfort bladder system. It will also adjust the vehicle’s infotainment system for your preferences for audio content type, volumes and tuning. HVAC temperature preferences will also be controlled through this system. • Exploration into senior driver profiles and teenager/early driver tracking and vehicle performance controls.© 2012 VALIENT AUTOMOTIVE MARKET RESEARCH PAGE 7
  8. 8. Near Term Technological Innovations Near Term Technological Innovations – 2013-2020 • In-vehicle “By Wire” systems gain popularity • Brake By Wire will eliminate over sixty pounds of vehicle infrastructure and improve braking reliability, performance and reaction times. • Steering By Wire will eliminate over one hundred pounds of vehicle infrastructure (i.e. steering column and simplified axles). Again, improved steering accuracy, reliability, performance and reaction times are top outcomes. • Will allow for easier integration of vehicle stability control systems. • Vehicle-to-vehicle communication technologies being developed by BMW, Mercedes-Benz and over ten vehicle suppliers now.© 2012 VALIENT AUTOMOTIVE MARKET RESEARCH PAGE 8
  9. 9. Long Term Technological Innovations Long Term Technological Innovations – 2020-2030 • Extinction Level Events – Automotive Systems & Components • OnStar and other concierge services. • Sunroofs becoming obsolete due to panoramic roof technologies. • Glass will be replaced by hybrid glass/resin products. • Mirrors will be replaced by low-cost camera and displays • Instrument panel clusters will be replaced by display screens. • Engine cooling and exhaust systems will decrease as powertrains shift to non-fossil fuel based technologies. • Steering wheels and columns likely to be replaced by different driver interface devices. • Tires will transform due to higher speed tolerance needs and 100% lifetime inflation demands.© 2012 VALIENT AUTOMOTIVE MARKET RESEARCH PAGE 9
  10. 10. Long Term Technological Innovations Long Term Technological Innovations – 2020-2030 • Areas of Development – Automotive Systems & Components • Biometric sensors – alcohol, low glucose, CO2 output, eye tracking, heartbeat monitoring. • Recyclable materials – plant-based material for foam, padding, and surface materials. • Carbon fiber-based products – lightweight carbon fiber-based products help lower vehicle weight and improve performance. • Anti-bacterial materials – no/low growth materials for in-vehicle applications including surface materials, filters and HVAC systems.© 2012 VALIENT AUTOMOTIVE MARKET RESEARCH PAGE 10
  11. 11. Long Term Technological Innovations Long Term Technological Innovations – 2020-2030 • Areas of Development – Automotive Systems & Components • Safety – Invisible A-B-C-D pillars, pedestrian/animal sensing protection systems, EV noise generation. • Older generation focused products – easy of entry swiveling seats, seatbelt presenters, larger font controls, easier to operate controls and higher output vehicle lighting. • RFID based systems for personal vehicle fleet management.© 2012 VALIENT AUTOMOTIVE MARKET RESEARCH PAGE 11
  12. 12. Long Term Technological Innovations Long Term Technological Innovations – 2020-2030 • Autonomous Vehicle Development • A vehicle that is not dependant on a driver. • Rapid development into several research areas that will result in the first production autonomous light-vehicles by 2030. • Several State governments including Arizona and California are developing legislation to address autonomous vehicle technologies. • Largely driven by Google, Microsoft and other technology-based firms. • Not just vehicle-based systems but in-road systems for consistency, improved performance and connectivity. • Goal = Large decrease in traffic deaths, increased productivity, improve quality of road/vehicle interface, lower energy consumption and lower carbon footprint.© 2012 VALIENT AUTOMOTIVE MARKET RESEARCH PAGE 12
  13. 13. Long Term Technological Innovations Long Term Technological Innovations – 2020-2030 • Autonomous Vehicle Development continued… • Goal of 200 miles per hour will decrease traffic congestion, improve productivity and lessen demand for high-cost/high environmental impacting travel modes like air travel. • More predictable vehicle maintenance based upon tighter control of vehicle/road interface. • “True” vehicle location, distance, speed, maintenance and history recording tied to vehicle title records and insurance policies. • Lowering of drunk/impaired drinking, older driver and poor driver related deaths.© 2012 VALIENT AUTOMOTIVE MARKET RESEARCH PAGE 13
  14. 14. Long Term Technological Innovations Long Term Technological Innovations – 2020-2030 • Autonomous Vehicle Development continued… • Family trip from Rochester, NY to New Orleans, LA – 1,388 miles • Google Maps = 22 hours 20 minutes • True time = Day 1, 12 hours and Day 2, 10 hours • Autonomous Vehicle Time: 7-8 hours© 2012 VALIENT AUTOMOTIVE MARKET RESEARCH PAGE 14
  15. 15. © 2012 VALIENT AUTOMOTIVE MARKET RESEARCH PAGE 15
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