Huberman Supernova 2008
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Huberman Supernova 2008

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    Huberman Supernova 2008 Huberman Supernova 2008 Presentation Transcript

    • S ocial Attention B ernardo A. Huberman HP Labs © 2007 Hewlett-P ackard Development C ompany, L.P . The information contained herein is s ubject to change without notice
    • in the age of the web and with the ubiquity of social networks , the scarce - and valuable – res ource is attention attention not as an individual ps ychological mechanism, but as a social phenomenon meas ured by the intens ity of signals that relate to a particular idea, theory, product, res earch program, movie, book, etc. Q ues tions : how do s ocial networks mediate attention? how does attention relate to the amount and intens ity of information available? what is the role that novelty and popularity play in eliciting attention? 2
    • attention – the network dimension a study of15 million recommendations from amazon.com prediction: propagation short on average, but every once in a while it goes along way 3
    • does receiving more recommendations increases the likelihood of buying? BOOKS DVDs 0 .0 6 0 .0 8 0 .0 5 0 .0 6 P r o b a b ilit y o f B u y in g P r o b a b ilit y o f B u y in g 0 .0 4 0 .0 3 0 .0 4 0 .0 2 0 .0 2 0 .0 1 0 0 2 4 6 8 10 10 20 30 40 50 60 I n c o m in g R e c o m m e n d a tio n s I n c o m in g R e c o m m e n d a tio n s J. Lefkovec, L. Adamic and B . A. Huberman, AC M Transactions on the W eb, Vol. 1, 5 (2007) 4
    • attention - the temporal dimension • we s hare with others what captures our attention • and when it fades we s earch for novel experiences 5
    • how does novelty interact with collective attention? in a highly nonlinear but predictable way prediction 1: attention among many items is dis tributed in a log-normal way prediction 2: attention decays in time as a s tretched exponential F. Wu and B . Huberman, “Novelty and collective attention,” P roc. Natl. Acad. US A, Vol.105, 17599 (2007) 6
    • we studied 1 million users of digg.com the allocation of attention among items is universal distribution of digg numbers of 29684 stories lognormal, as predicted 7
    • novelty decays in predictable ways: as predicted: in stretched exponential fashion s tory “half life”: 69 minutes 8
    • another problem what is the interplay between popularity and novelty at eliciting attention? it depends on the rate at which novelty decays thus, meas uring the decay rate allows to predict which (popularity or novelty) to prioritize in order to maximize attention 9
    • there is plenty more e.g. other attention structures (like public opinions) http:/ www.hpl.hp.com/ earch/ / res scl 10