Sunz2013 mike o_neil

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Sunz2013 mike o_neil

  1. 1. Targeting Public Value in New ZealandThe role of analytics in achieving social, economic, and fiscal outcomes February 2013 Michael O’Neil, Ministry of Social Development
  2. 2. Drivers of Change• Welfare Working Group recommendations• Welfare Reform benefit collapse• Actuarial valuation of long term liability• Investment ApproachTargeting Public Value in New Zealand 2
  3. 3. Foundations of Approach• Identify cohorts of risk• Model risk• Trial a variety of interventions• Measure results• Continue what works, stop what doesn’tTargeting Public Value in New Zealand 3
  4. 4. Analytics as the Enabler• Analytics is not new in MSD (LLTBR, 6-9 year olds)• Welfare Working Group gives it traction• Experimental design techniques• Enables results measurement• Demonstrate valueTargeting Public Value in New Zealand 4
  5. 5. First Efforts• Aim to identify 15-17 year-old school-leavers most at risk of not being in Education, Employment or Training• Model risk of becoming welfare beneficiaries• Becoming a beneficiary at a young age means higher likelihood of being a long term recipient• Changing that pathway generates social, economic, and fiscal outcomesTargeting Public Value in New Zealand 5
  6. 6. Modelling ApproachWere trying to identify 15-17 year-old school-leavers most at risk of notbeing in Education, Employment or Training, with an emphasis onlikelihood of long-term benefit liability Trigger Event: Outcome: Leaving school Benefit grant (not UHS) Clients education history Outcome Window: Clients CYF history 3 yearsRelated persons benefit history 3-Year Future Liability $ Health, Justice, other Social Sector, etc etc or Value at RiskTargeting Public Value in New Zealand 6
  7. 7. Technical Details• History of benefit uptake on MSD Data Warehouse• History of interaction with CYF on MSD Data Warehouse• School Leaver information from Ministry of Education• Matching client identity data from multiple sources• Legal and Privacy concernsTargeting Public Value in New Zealand 7
  8. 8. Platform 8Targeting Public Value in New Zealand
  9. 9. Technical Details• Electronic transfer of data via B2B infrastructure• Data Matching using DataFlux Software from SAS• ETL processes written in SAS• Campaign Flow built using Campaign Studio from SAS• Enriched data transferred to ART RDBMS using SAS/Access• Messages sent to SMS provider using Proc SoapTargeting Public Value in New Zealand 9
  10. 10. Technical Challenges• End to end integration (Ministry of Education through to ART)• Level of integration of DataFlux with the rest of SAS• Campaign Software integration with IAP• Evolution of requirements• Mixture of Vendor, Contractor, and Permanent Staff• Time constraint immoveable (legislative imperative)Targeting Public Value in New Zealand 10
  11. 11. Technical ChallengesTargeting Public Value in New Zealand 11
  12. 12. Technical ChallengesTargeting Public Value in New Zealand 12
  13. 13. Technical ChallengesTargeting Public Value in New Zealand 13
  14. 14. Data InfrastructureTargeting Public Value in New Zealand 14
  15. 15. Where is the ValueTargeting Public Value in New Zealand 15
  16. 16. Our Role• Decisions about allocation of resources• Stewards of public funds (tax payer funded)• Fundamental duty to optimise allocations (under constraint)• Analytics (propensity modelling) and Operations Research optimisation techniques have a major role to playTargeting Public Value in New Zealand 16
  17. 17. How Right Can You BeTargeting Public Value in New Zealand 17
  18. 18. The Value of Being RightTargeting Public Value in New Zealand 18
  19. 19. Common Misconceptions• People are always better than models (even gut feel models have a ROC Curve)• We can have the perfect model (position on the ROC curve and the cost matrix matter)Targeting Public Value in New Zealand 19
  20. 20. Driving ValueTargeting Public Value in New Zealand 20
  21. 21. Conclusion• Focus is now on driving value• Use of analytics combined with optimisation techniques are appropriate tools in stewardship of public funds• Platform is very similar to private sector “closed loop” marketing• Is the genie out of the bottle?Targeting Public Value in New Zealand 21
  22. 22. Acknowledgements• James Mansell – Innovation and Change Leadership• Evan Stubbs – Though leadership• John O’Leary – A rare breed of Account Manager• Wessel de Meyer – Outstanding Diagrams• IAP Team – Anarchic response to being managed• SAS Institute NZ - PatienceTargeting Public Value in New Zealand 22

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