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Sex ratio-pp ts
Sex ratio-pp ts
Sex ratio-pp ts
Sex ratio-pp ts
Sex ratio-pp ts
Sex ratio-pp ts
Sex ratio-pp ts
Sex ratio-pp ts
Sex ratio-pp ts
Sex ratio-pp ts
Sex ratio-pp ts
Sex ratio-pp ts
Sex ratio-pp ts
Sex ratio-pp ts
Sex ratio-pp ts
Sex ratio-pp ts
Sex ratio-pp ts
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Sex ratio-pp ts

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  • 1. TRENDS IN SELECTIVE ABORTIONS OF GIRLS IN INDIA FROM 1980-2010 Centre for Global Health Research (CGHR) Dalla Lana School of Public Health, University of Toronto prabhat.jha@utoronto.ca Release: Lancet, May 24, 2011 Sources of support: NIH (US); CIHR, IDRC & LKSKI (Canada)CGHR.ORG/GIRLSTwitter: @CGHR_org
  • 2. Conclusions - Selective abortion of girls has increased in last two decades -Selective abortion more common among the most wealthy, and most educated households - 4.2 to 12.1 million or M girls aborted from 1980-2010 - About 3.1 to 6.0 M in the 2000s (~1/2 of total) - About 1.2 to 4.1 M in the 1990s - About 0 to 2.0 M in the 1980s -Risk of selective abortion of girls is highest in families with a first daughter - Selective abortion of girls is now common all over IndiaCGHR.ORG/GIRLSTwitter: @CGHR_org
  • 3. What’s new about this research? - First study documenting recent trends in conditional sex ratios, over 15 years, from 1990 to 2005 - Estimates of the number of selective abortions of girls over the last 3 decadesCGHR.ORG/GIRLSTwitter: @CGHR_org
  • 4. How as the study done? Trends in “conditional” sex ratios: - Girls or boys don’t “run” in families: the chances of a second girl or boy do not depend on the gender of firstborns - We studied conditional sex ratios and compared against the West - Used 3 rounds of the National Family Health Survey (NFHS) - a large, national survey which resembles the whole of India: NFHS-1 NFHS-2 NFHS-3 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005CGHR.ORG/GIRLSTwitter: @CGHR_org
  • 5. Declines in sex ratio of second born when firstborn was a girl *Red brackets show the natural sex ratio range of 950-975 girls per 1000 boys.CGHR.ORG/GIRLSTwitter: @CGHR_org
  • 6. Declines in sex ratio of second born when firstborn was a girl, by education No education 10 or more years of education (matric) *Red brackets show the natural sex ratio range of 950-975 girls per 1000 boys.CGHR.ORG/GIRLSTwitter: @CGHR_org
  • 7. Declines in sex ratio of second born when firstborn was a girl, by wealth *Red brackets show the natural sex ratio range of 950-975 girls per 1000 boys.CGHR.ORG/GIRLSTwitter: @CGHR_org
  • 8. 4-12 million (M) girls aborted over the last 3 decades Number of aborted girls calculated over last 3 decades using the 1991, 2001 and 2011 Census of India. Census 1991 Census 2001 Census 2011 1980 1990 2000 2010 1980-2010 totals: 4 to 12 M 0 to 2.0 M 1.2 to 4.1 M aborted aborted girls aborted girls 3.1 to 6.0 M girlsCGHR.ORG/GIRLS aborted girlsTwitter: @CGHR_org
  • 9. Child sex ratio of girls to boys at ages 0-6 in 2001 and 2011 for the districts of IndiaCGHR.ORG/GIRLSTwitter: @CGHR_org
  • 10. District-level changes in child sex ratio at ages 0-6, between 2001 to 2011 Number of Districts % Large decline (greater than 278 49 national decline of 1.4%) Small decline (in line with 127 23 national average) No change, or improvement 158 28 • More than double the number of Indian districts (n=405) showed decreasing sex ratios, compared to those showing no change or an improvement (n=158) •Every 1% decline in child sex ratio at ages 0-6 years implies 1.2 to 3.6 million more selective abortions of girlsCGHR.ORG/GIRLSTwitter: @CGHR_org
  • 11. Distribution of Indian population living in states with varying child sex ratios 90% of Indians now live in states where the sex ratio is abnormal (i.e. below a natural level ofCGHR.ORG/GIRLSTwitter: @CGHR_org 950-975 females for every 1000 boys)
  • 12. Conclusions - Selective abortion of girls has increased in last two decades -Selective abortion more common among the most wealthy, and most educated households - 4.2 to 12.1 million or M girls aborted from 1980-2010 - About 3.1 to 6.0 M in the 2000s (~1/2 of total) - About 1.2 to 4.1 M in the 1990s - About 0 to 2.0 M in the 1980s -Risk of selective abortion of girls is highest in families with a first daughter - Selective abortion of girls is now common all over IndiaCGHR.ORG/GIRLSTwitter: @CGHR_org
  • 13. www.cghr.org/girls Twitter: @CGHR_org - Article - Web appendix - Press release (English and Hindi) - Video press release - FAQs - PowerPoint slides - District-level child sex ratios in 2001 and 2011 in excel formatCGHR.ORG/GIRLSTwitter: @CGHR_org
  • 14. District-level changes in child sex ratio at ages 0-6, between 2001 to 2011CGHR.ORG/GIRLSTwitter: @CGHR_org
  • 15. Declines in sex ratio of second born when firstborn was a girl - Sex ratio of the second born, if firstborn was a girl, has fallen during the period of 1990-2005, compared with no change if the firstborn was a boy - This conditional sex ratio fell from 906 in 1990 to 836 in 2005 (natural sex ratio is between 950- 975) INTERPRETATION: Selective abortion of girls has increased over the last two decadesCGHR.ORG/GIRLSTwitter: @CGHR_org
  • 16. Declines in sex ratio of second born when firstborn was a girl, by education - Sex ratio of the second born, if firstborn was a girl, was lower in families where mother had 10 years or more of education, compared to those with no education - The gap in selective abortion of girls increased over time between these two groups; conditional sex ratios fell for the most educated, but saw no change for those with no education INTERPRETATION: Selective abortion of girls has increased the most in educated householdsCGHR.ORG/GIRLSTwitter: @CGHR_org
  • 17. Declines in sex ratio of second born when firstborn was a girl, by wealth - Sex ratio of the second born, if firstborn was a girl, was lower for the richest 20% of households, compared to the poorest 20% - This gap widened between 1990-2005; conditional sex ratios fell for the richest 20% of households INTERPRETATION: Selective abortion of girls has increased most for the richest 20% of householdsCGHR.ORG/GIRLSTwitter: @CGHR_org

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