Khong Guan Biscuits Market Forecast in Kazakhstan

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To study the F & B trends in Kazakhstan
To study the demand and sales forecast when Khong Guan enters Kazakhstan

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Khong Guan Biscuits Market Forecast in Kazakhstan

  1. 1. Market Forecast for Biscuits in Kazakhstan Bay Wan Ting | Chan Li Feng Carissa |Eu Sin Yi| He Jia Ling |Cyndy Lin Xin Yi | Hena Suhail 1
  2. 2. INTRODUCTION ANALYSIS DEMAND FORECASTTARGET Parameters  Identify Target Market  Only one city: Astana  Focus on Domestic Market in Kazakhstan  Analysis of Biscuit Market in Kazakhstan  Estimate Customer Demand (Volume) based on 2013 for market entry in 2014  Sales Forecast for 2015 to 2019 to base on gross sales revenues  Competitors are considered based the same product range Assumptions × Entry Modes × Distribution Channels × Costs × Importing and exporting to other neighboring countries  Stagnant Competition  Same Price Range as in Singapore  Constant Exchange Rate  The same taste and preferences for all cities as indicated by the country  Constant inflation rate for 2015 to 2019 2
  3. 3. KAZAKHSTAN DEMAND FORECASTANALYSISINTRODUCTION TARGET  Major cities: Astana, Almaty, Karagandy, Shymkent  Consumer expenditure per capita 76.9% by 2020  36.1% in GDP (2014 – 2019) Why Astana? 1) Projected increase in population by 40.2% 2) High investment growth of 14% High purchasing power 3) Contributes to 10% of the nation’s GDP 4) High exposure to international food brands Receptive to foreign brands and willingness to pay a premium for quality 5) Soaring consumer expenditure per household on food (88.2%) between 2007 to 2012 3
  4. 4. DEMAND FORECASTINTRODUCTION  Positioning: International Premium Brand  Aligned with our Strategic direction: revamp packaging & introducing new biscuit variants to improve brand image  Target Market: Mass market of all age group  Product: All product Range  Price: Competitive Pricing ANALYSISTARGET KHONG GUAN’S STRATEGIES 4
  5. 5.  Growing demand of biscuits products in general  Consumed biscuits as snacks with tea or coffee by all consumer age groups  Strong loyalty to domestic/home-grown products accounted for 31% of the current value sales of biscuits in 2012 CONSUMER TRENDS INTRODUCTION ANALYSIS DEMAND FORECASTTARGET Year Source: Euromonitor International January 2013 Plain Biscuits Savoury Biscuits Filled Biscuits 5 Sales of biscuit by category
  6. 6. COMPETITORS International Brand International manufacturers have strong positions Mainly represented by Russian & Turkish manufacturers which import their products via distribution partners. Offer standard and premium price range products, 31% Domestic Brand Produces biscuits products in a diverse and rich range. Well known to consumers by their high quality& affordable prices Wide distribution channels in various grocery retailers  Sultan Konditerskie Izdelia (21%)  Hamle (15.4%)  Union Almaty Nan (8.4%)  Rakhat (6.9%)  Yildiz Holding (17% )  Lyubimy Kray (5%) INTRODUCTION DEMAND FORECAST Market Share Market Share Source: Euromonitor International January 2013 6 ANALYSISTARGET
  7. 7. INTRODUCTION BISCUITS MARKET DEMAND (VOLUME) 2014 to 2019 DEMAND FORECAST Years 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Volume of Biscuit (Tonnes) 46390 46946 47781 48520 49184 49889 50613 51325 52038 Source: Euromonitor International, 2013 Calculated by Regression Table 1: Forecasted Volume of Biscuits 2014 to 2019 42000 44000 46000 48000 50000 52000 54000 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Volume of Biscuits (Tonnes) Year 7 ANALYSISTARGET
  8. 8. INTRODUCTION TARGET MARKET SHARES 2015 to 2019 FORECASTDEMAND Years Target Market Shares (%) 2014 (Given) 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Best Case 1.25 2.50 5.00 9.69 9.83 10 Likely Case 0.625 1.25 2.50 4.85 4.91 5 Worst Case 0.25 0.50 1.00 1.94 1.97 2 Table 2: Target Market Shares 2015 to 2019 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 2014 (Given) 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Best Case Likely Case 8 Worse Case ANALYSISTARGET
  9. 9. INTRODUCTION BISCUIT MARKET SALES FORECAST 2014 to 2019 Years 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Sales of Biscuits (KZT million) 28718 29014 29555 30130 30771 31442 31885 32441 32997 Growth Rate (%) 1.03 1.86 1.94 2.13 2.18 1.41 1.74 1.71 Source: Euromonitor International, 2013 Calculated by Regression Table 3: Forecasted Sales of Biscuits 2014 to 2019 26000 28000 30000 32000 34000 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Sales of Biscuits (KZT million) Year DEMAND FORECAST 9 ANALYSISTARGET
  10. 10. INTRODUCTION SALES FORECAST 2015 to 2019 FORECASTDEMAND Years Sales Forecast (KTZ Million) 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Best Case 769.27 1572.11 3090.39 3188.63 3299.74 Likely Case 384.64 786.06 1545.19 1594.32 1649.87 Worst Case 153.85 314.42 618.08 637.73 659.95 Table 4: Sales Forecast 2015 to 2019 0.00 500.00 1000.00 1500.00 2000.00 2500.00 3000.00 3500.00 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 10 Best Case Likely Case Worse Case ANALYSISTARGET
  11. 11. References 11 • Euromonitor International. (2010). Kazakhstan in 2030: The future demographic. Euromonitor International, 1-19. • Euromonitor International. (2012). Packaged food in Kazakhstan. Euromonitor International, 1-42. • Euromonitor International. (2013). Biscuits in Kazakhstan. Euromonitor International, 1-10. • Euromonitor International. (2013). Consumer Expenditure by Region. Euromonitor International, 1-10. • Edge Kazakhstan. (2011, January 01). Astana Restaurants . Retrieved Febraury 23, 2013, from Kazakhstan edge : http://www.edgekz.com/astana-restaurants- dining/blog/page-2.html • SojuzPravoInform LLC. (2012, Janurary 01). Republic of Kazakstan. Retrieved Febraury 23, 2013, from CIS-Legislation.com: http://cis- legislation.com/kazakhstan.fwx • SojuzPravoTnformLLC. (n.d.).
  12. 12. Q&A Thank You 12

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