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Commo Daily Report 15th Oct
Commo Daily Report 15th Oct
Commo Daily Report 15th Oct
Commo Daily Report 15th Oct
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Commo Daily Report 15th Oct

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Crude Oil Tgt 87$ and then 100$ Very Soon......

Crude Oil Tgt 87$ and then 100$ Very Soon......

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  • 1. CD CommoSearch 4 Daily Research -Report 1- Date 15th October,10 Turnover of 14.10.10 Commodity Rate Rate Up / Down 15.10.10 14.10.10 Exchange Turnover ( Cr.) Gold $ 1379.70 $ 1377.60 $ 2.10 $ MCX 49743 Silver $ 24.60 $ 24.43 $ 0.17 $ NCDEX 4884 Crude $ 82.77 $ 82.69 $ 0.08 $ USDINR 44.1325 44.2475 - 0.1150 Crude Fundamentally we can see that Crude Oil stocks are falling from past two weeks which is a positive sign for crude prices to move up. Also the demand for the commodity is stable which will support prices at lower levels. In next few months we can see good upside movemnt in the commodity because of low inventories. Technically when we see, Crude has broken a major resistance of 83$ in NYMEX, prices are sustaining above these levels which is a positive sign for crude. We can see that Crude prices can touch levels of 87$ and on break of that 99 to 100$ very soon. As the prices have given sharp upmove of 10 to 12$ in past some weeks so there might be some correction till 80$ in next few days. As the trend is positive so one should utilize these corrections as buying opportunity for the target of 87 $. In long term we are expecting Crude prices to touch levels of 100$ in Comex, any small correction will be a good buy opportunity for the targets of 87$ and if the prices are able to break 87$ on closing basis then we can see Crude prices touching levels of 100$ in next few months. In MCX once if prices are able to break 3870 levels on closing basis then we might see levels of 4000 and 4200 Rs. in next one to two months i.e. a return of approx 20% from current levels. We maintain a bullish view in Crude. Maize Maize prices are up globally because of supply concerns. US is world’s top producer and exporter of maize, where prices are near two year high on expectations that US harvest is not going to meet strong global demand. Prices of maize might continue to rise for some more days because of tight supplies and good demand. Overall if we take longterm view then, Maize prices can start to come down from the month of November or December because of new crop supplies from North India. Also maize output in 2010-11 kharif season was projected to be higher at 14.03 million tonnes compared to 12 million tonnes a year ago. 1 Equities Derivatives Commodities Wealth Management Mutual Funds Life Insurance
  • 2. CD CommoSearch 4 Daily Research -Report 2- Date 15th October,10 Technically we can seen that, Maize prices can give a small upmove in short term till 1120 or 1150 levels but overall sell on rise will be a good strategy for long term as the prices can fall from 1150 level to 1000 and 900 Rs. in next four to five months. In short term we can take buy positions with a stop loss of 980 Rs. for the targets of 1080 and 1150 levels, for next one month prices of maize can move in a range of 1000 to 1150 levels. From November Mid we can see selling pressure in the commodity, so any small upmove in the prices will be a good opportunity to sell for the targets of 900 Rs., in next few months. In short term for next one month, we will buy Maize futures for the target of 1080 and once when prices move above 1100 levels then we will maintain a bearish view in commodity for next four to five months. Any rise above 1100 Rs. should be utilised as selling opportunity for the targets of 900 Rs. Crude Chart LIGHT CRUDE CONTINUOUS 1000 BARRELS [NYMEX] (83.2300, 84.1200, 82.2100, 82.6900, -0.32000) 90 85 80 75 70 65 60 55 Relative Strength Index (63.9511) 80 75 70 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 Volume (0) 1 0 -1 8 15 22 29 13 20 27 3 10 17 24 31 8 21 28 5 12 19 26 2 9 16 23 7 14 21 4 11 19 1 8 16 22 1 8 15 22 29 12 19 26 3 10 17 24 1 14 21 28 6 12 19 26 2 9 16 23 30 7 20 27 4 11 18 25 June July August September October November December 2010 February March April May June July August September October 2 Equities Derivatives Commodities Wealth Management Mutual Funds Life Insurance
  • 3. CD CommoSearch 4 Daily Research -Report 3- Date 15th October,10 Daily Trading Range  Crude today’s trading level are 3580 – 3710.  Intraday support @ 3580 – 3630 and Resistance @ 3710 - 3750.  Intraday Trend UP, Buy on dips....…  Crude Buy @ 3600 SL 3570 TGT 3630 – 3650….. Open Calls Date Type Commodity Initiated Stop Target Closing Comments of Price Loss Price Call 27.09.10 Buy Crude 3450-3480 3300 3610-3750- 3624 Almost 2nd Tgt 3870-4100 Achieved @ 3730. 14.10.10 Sell Gold Mini 19760 19880 19610-19500 19834 Spread Calls Date Type Commodity Initiat Stop Target Comments of ed Loss Spread Call Price Spread 14.10.10 Buy Zinc Oct 106 7000 7000-10000 Sell Lead Oct 106.30 US Economic Indicator US Economic Data Time Data Prior Expected 6.00 PM CPI 0.3 % 0.2 % 6.00 PM Core CPI 0.0 % 0.1 % 6.00 PM Retail Sales 0.4 % 0.4 % 6.00 PM Retail Sales Ex-Auto 0.6 % 0.4 % 6.00 PM Empire Manufacturing 4.10 5.75 7.25 PM Mich Sentiment 68.2 68.5 7.30 PM Business Inventories 1.0 % 0.5 % 11.30 PM Treasury Budget -46.6B $ -33.5B $ 3 Equities Derivatives Commodities Wealth Management Mutual Funds Life Insurance
  • 4. CD CommoSearch 4 Daily Research -Report 4- Date 15th October,10 Day Trader, Vultures Pick. Commodity S2 S1 Prev. Close R1 R2 Trend Gold 19770 19840 19948 19960 20050 Buy on dips & Sell on rise …. Silver 35700 36050 36460 37000 37250 Buy on dips & Sell on rise …. Crude 3580 3630 3663 3710 3750 Buy on dips …. NG 156 160 164.80 167 171 Sell on rise …. Copper 367 371 373.10 375.50 379 Sell on rise …. Nickel 1055 1065 1079.70 1088 1102 Sell on rise …. Zinc 104.70 105.70 105.60 107.20 108.80 Sell on rise …. Lead 104.20 105.20 105.80 107.30 109 Sell on rise …. Aluminum 104.50 105.30 105.75 106.80 107.70 Sell on rise …. Report by: - Sumeet Bagadia. (Assistant Vice President - Commodity & Currency) Email: - sumeet.bagadia@cdequi.com Contact No :- 022 - 30696875 For private circulation only Website: www.cdequi.com Disclaimer CD CommoSearch Pvt. Ltd. as a firm may have investment positions in the company shares discussed above. This document is meant for our clients only and is not for public distribution. This material is for the personal information of the authorized recipient, and we are not soliciting any action based upon it. This report is not to be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security in any jurisdiction where such an offer or solicitation would be illegal. The material is based upon information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete, and it should not be relied upon as such. Neither CD CommoSearch Pvt. Ltd., nor any person connected with it, accepts any liability arising from the use of this document. The recipient of this material should rely on their own investigations and take their own professional advice. Opinions expressed are our current opinions as of the date appearing on this material only. While we endeavor to update on a reasonable basis the information discussed in this material, there may be regulatory, compliance, or other reasons that prevent us from doing so. Prospective investors and others are cautioned that any forward-looking statements are not predictions and may be subject to change without notice. If you have any questions about this report please get in touch with CD CommoSearch Pvt. Ltd. Kolkata: CD Equisearch Pvt. Ltd. 37, Shakespeare Sarani, Kolkata 700 017 Phone + 91 (33) 2280 5601 / 5602, Fax + 91 (33) 2289 2557, Mumbai: CD Equisearch Pvt. Ltd. 10, Vaswani Mansion, 2nd Floor, Dinshaw Waccha Road, Mumbai – 400 020 Phone +91 (22) 33550000, Fax +91 (22) 2283 2276. 4 Equities Derivatives Commodities Wealth Management Mutual Funds Life Insurance

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