Political Branding in India: Brand BJP

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  • 2. Problem Statement COMPONENTS OF MR PROBLEM Factors influencing inclination to vote for a political party Perception of the party MARKETING RESEARCH PROBLEM Determine factors that influence urban youth voters’ inclination to vote for a political party Perception of Brand BJP vis-à-vis other political parties on the above determined factors MANAGEMENT DECISION PROBLEM How should BJP position itself in the minds of the urban youth to secure their votes in the 2014 Lok Sabha elections?
  • 3. Exploratory Research : BCM Inferences • Party leaders are very important for BJP – Primary Associations • BJP is strongly associated with RSS and the Hindutva ideology • Any association to development and better governance is only at the secondary level and through a leader  Strategy of placing leaders known for development before the party has penetrated the psyche of the urban youth
  • 4. Exploratory Research: Secondary Data Key Secondary Data Facts  35% of the total eligible voters in the upcoming elections will belong to the age group of 30 years and below. 47% if we define youth as 35 and below.  Approximately 90,000 first time voters, in the age group of 18 to 22 will be eligible to vote in each of the Lok Sabha constituencies  According to a representative survey conducted by India Today, more than 47% wanted Narendra Modi as their next Prime Minister  The number of like for Narendra Modi’s page on Facebook (11.1m) is greater than that of Arvind Kejriwal (4.6m), BJP(2.5m), INC(2m), AAP(1.6m) and Rahul Gandhi(0.3m) combined  According to a recent poll conducted by the Times Now-C Voter group, the NDA led by the BJP is poised to capture 227 seats of the 543 seats available in the Lok Sabha.
  • 5. Exploratory Research: Focus Groups Selection Factors •Clean and Intellectual Leadership •Vision of the party •Declaration of PM candidate •Inclusion, Experience at the national level Media Channels •Presence on the web and social media platforms •Newspaper and Electronic Media important as well Attributes of a leader •Team-Player •Proven Track Record •Pro- development Attributes of a Voter •Aware of political parties and their agenda •Aware of social and national issues •Unbiased towards caste, language and religion
  • 6. Exploratory Research: In-Depth Interviews Motivators to Vote for a Party Good Infrastructure Development Anti- Corruption Measures Past performance Communication Channels Multimedia focused Communication Social Media Door-to-door Campaign Leader Leader before party Absence of leader has a negative impact Party Ideology Large Impact Compensated by growth- focused agenda Populism Negative impact
  • 7. Exploratory Research: Projective Techniques  Urban youth have a negative perception towards the INC with issues such as dynasty politics, corruption and policy paralysis dominating the responses  BJP has a relatively better image with factors such as development, growth and lesser corruption  INC is credited with possessing an intellectual leadership team whereas the BJP is regarded as a party with internal conflicts  INC is personified as old, rich and deceitful in contrast to the BJP which seems to be regarded as a middle-aged, mature but confused individual
  • 8. Hypotheses - Exploratory Research  BJP is perceived to have a pro-Hindutva agenda by urban youth  Clear leadership is important for voters to consider a party as favourable  Past performance of contesting candidate influences voting decision  Development and growth are the prime influencers for urban youth to vote for a political party  Decisive leadership is associated with BJP than Congress  BJP is considered less corrupt than Congress  Secularism is associated more with Congress than with BJP  BJP is considered more pro-development than Congress
  • 10. Survey Demographics 18 0 1 2 0 2 0 1 1 0 0 1 17 3 1 15 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 0 11 0 3 0 3 0 5 10 15 20 State-Wise Distribution Male 82% Female 18% Gender 18 - 23 26% 24 - 28 72% 29 - 33 1% 34 and above 1% Age Groups 18 - 23 24 - 28 29 - 33 34 and above
  • 11. Factor Analysis Factor 1 : Maturity of the party Factor 2: Hygiene of the party Factor 3: Image of the party Factor 4: Inclusivity of the party Qualified leadership team Non Corrupt Decisive leadership Minority Inclusion Declaration of PM candidate Secular Party Ideology Pro poor policies Amicable foreign policies Pro development Past Government performance Focus on rural development Experience at the national level Rotated Component Matrixa Component 1 2 3 4 Non-Corrupt .022 .711 -.122 -.074 Secular .078 .755 .171 .323 Minority Inclusion -.135 .449 .393 .571 Pro-poor policies .047 .099 -.170 .738 Pro-development .258 -.490 .366 .068 Decisive Leadership .041 -.157 .745 .133 Qualified Leadership Team .562 -.050 .153 .020 Party Ideology .399 .428 .456 -.009 Past Governance Performance .251 .067 .705 -.172 Declaration of PM candidate .746 -.085 .187 -.153 Amicable Foreign Policies .764 -.016 -.095 .252 Experience at the National Level .636 .143 .122 .173 Focus on Rural Development .193 -.089 .083 .664 Extraction Method: Principal Component Analysis. Reliability Measures KMO 0.673 Bartlett’s Test of Sphericity 0.000 (Significance)
  • 12. BJP v/s the Ideal Party Findings • BJP does well on 2 of the four factors and has a favourable image as well • The Hygiene factors are an area of concern particularly the Non-Corrupt and Secular variables for BJP Factor I Factor II Factor III Factor IV Qualified Leadership Team Declaration of PM Candidate Amicable Foreign Policies Experience at National Level Non-Corrupt Secular Pro-Development Decisive Leadership Party Ideology Past Governance Performance Minority Inclusion Pro-poor policies BJP 4.03 4.11 3.79 4.05 2.71 2.87 4.29 4.34 3.53 3.82 3.32 3.61 3.99 3.29 3.89 3.46 Ideal 4.61 3.48 3.93 3.93 4.63 4.20 4.67 4.67 3.68 3.98 3.39 3.63 3.98 4.50 4.11 3.51
  • 13. BJP v/s AAP Factor I Factor II Factor III Factor IV Qualified Leadership Team Declaration of PM Candidate Amicable Foreign Policies Experience at National Level Non-Corrupt Secular Pro-Development Decisive Leadership Party Ideology Past Governance Performance Minority Inclusion Pro-poor policies BJP 4.03 4.11 3.79 4.05 2.71 2.87 4.29 4.34 3.53 3.82 3.32 3.61 3.99 3.29 3.89 3.46 AAP 3.53 3.29 3.13 2.08 3.82 3.79 3.53 3.18 3.82 2.45 3.68 3.92 3.01 3.71 3.15 3.80 Findings • BJP received favourable ratings for Political Maturity and Party Image • The AAP received favourable ratings for Hygiene and Inclusivity
  • 14. BJP v/s Congress Findings • BJP loses out on the Inclusivity factor when compared to the INC • Low ratings of the INC of variables under the Image factor (Factor 3) can be attributed to the recent scams and policy paralysis Factor I Factor II Factor III Factor IV Qualified Leadership Team Declaration of PM Candidate Amicable Foreign Policies Experience at National Level Non- Corrupt Secular Pro-Development Decisive Leadership Party Ideology Past Governance Performance Minority Inclusion Pro-poor policies BJP 3.86 4.00 3.80 3.91 2.52 2.61 4.23 4.25 3.23 3.82 3.16 3.50 3.89 3.12 3.77 3.33 Congress 2.57 2.25 3.05 3.57 1.52 2.57 2.57 2.02 2.43 2.27 3.34 3.52 2.86 2.22 2.24 3.43
  • 15. Discriminant Analysis  Objective : To verify difference in perception towards different criteria across suitability to form the next government  BJP :  Decisive Leadership is the most important predictor variable  82.9 % of the cases have been correctly classified  Inference : Decisive Leadership is the most important predictor variable explaining voter’s inclination to vote for BJP while its communal is the reason voters don’t want BJP to come to power Model is significant
  • 16. Inferences  Congress  Decisive Leadership and Declaration of PM candidate are the most important predictor variables  90.9% of the cases are correctly classified  People who believed Congress to be a prospective ruling party credited its decisive leadership and declaration of PM Candidate while people who dismissed Congress for being corrupt and anti-development  AAP  Discriminant model is not significant (sig. = 0.505)  Overall the model has not been able to discriminate beyond reasonable significance supporters of AAP from non-supporters which is reflected in the low percentage of cross validation (47.4%)
  • 17. Positioning of Leaders Goodness of Fit R-Square 0.906 Stress 0.12 Findings • Arvind Kejriwal ranks high on both dimensions • Narendra Modi is perceived to be the most worthy PM candidate • Rahul Gandhi perceived entirely different from the set of leaders evaluated
  • 18. Hypothesis Testing Hypothesis Result Inference Congress is synonymous with dynasty politics H0 is rejected Respondents associate Congress with dynasty politics BJP has a strong divisive Hindutva agenda H0 is rejected BJP is perceived as a right wing party BJP is now synonymous with Narendra Modi H0 is rejected Narendra Modi has emerged as the face of BJP Congress is truly a secular party H0 is not rejected Urban youth does not believe Congress is truly a secular party BJP is a dangerous communal outfit H0 is not rejected Urban youth does not hold extreme views against BJP Congress is Gandhi’s family party H0 is rejected Reiterates the dominance of dynasty politics in Congress Congress resorts to vote bank politics H0 is rejected Urban youth recognises Congress’s divisive tactics Prefer to vote for a local candidate rather than national leader from another region both competing for the same seat H0 is rejected People prefer to vote for a candidate from their own region
  • 19. Brand Attributes of National Leaders Narendra Modi • Visionary • Modern • Dictatorial • Earthy Rahul Gandhi • Confused • Unapproachable Arvind Kejriwal • Earthy • Dictatorial • Secular • Modern • Rating is taken on a 7 point semantic differential scale • Mean value analysis is done to assign attribute which is closest to the leader
  • 20. Research Inferences Factor Analysis • Variables can be grouped into 4 factors • BJP scores low on non- corruption and secularism Discriminant Analysis • BJP is perceived as a strong divisive Hindutva political party • Perceived as non-secular Multi Dimensional Scaling • Narendra Modi low on public engagement as compared to Arvind Kejriwal Parametric Test • BJP is associated with internal party conflicts
  • 21. Recommendations  Focus on voters from other religions and not just Hinduism  Build a non corrupt image by expelling corrupt leaders and engage with people on the issue of corruption  BJP’s prime ministerial candidate should increasingly focus on building public engagement  Announce pro-poor policies in its manifesto and aim for inclusion of lower sections of society  Avoid conflicts in the party going public and members should stay united for the common goal  Narendra Modi should distance himself from his dictatorial image
  • 22. THANK YOU!
  • 23. References 1. http://www.thehindu.com/news/national/demographic-dividend-at-its-peak/article5102093.ece 2. http://www.livemint.com/Politics/F3XMazoBlhQneWqCXWWRnM/Young-India-as-a-political- constituency.html 3. http://indianexpress.com/article/india/politics/90000-per-seat-young-india-could-swing-elections- 2014/ 4. http://www.livemint.com/Politics/FFe0ejUdMKehcwFB5FImuL/High-voter-turnout-points-to-change- in-urban-youth-attitudes.html 5. http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/home/specials/assembly-elections-2013/delhi-assembly- elections/Delhi-election-2013-Young-guns-fired-up-this-poll-chief-electoral-officer- says/articleshow/26922014.cms