Money market, hedging

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Money market, hedging

  1. 1. Giddy Forwards, Futures and Money-Market Hedging/1 Forwards, Futures and Money Market Hedging Prof. Ian Giddy New York University Copyright ©1997 Ian H. Giddy Forwards, Futures and Money-Market Hedging 7 Hedging Transactions Exposure l Types of exposure l One-shot exposure l Hedging approaches: uOpen uForward uMoney market uFutures uOptions l Ongoing transactions exposure
  2. 2. Giddy Forwards, Futures and Money-Market Hedging/2 Copyright ©1997 Ian H. Giddy Forwards, Futures and Money-Market Hedging 8 Tools for Hedging l Petrobras has to pay for equipment from Japan, in Japanese yen, in 3 months uBorrow and pay now? uUse a forward contract/FX swap? uPay later at spot? Copyright ©1997 Ian H. Giddy Forwards, Futures and Money-Market Hedging 9 Forward Contracts, Futures and Money Market Hedging l Money market hedging: match currency of assets and liabilities l Forwards: OTC agreement to exchange currencies at certain exchange rate in the future l FX swap: simultaneous spot sale and forward purchase of a currency l Futures: Exchange-traded contracts for notional future delivery, minimizing default risk via marking-to-market
  3. 3. Giddy Forwards, Futures and Money-Market Hedging/3 Copyright ©1997 Ian H. Giddy Forwards, Futures and Money-Market Hedging 10 Forward Contracts l Agreement to exchange currencies at certain exchange rate in the future l Default risk in forward contracts arises because such a contract is a commitment for future performance, and one or other party may be unwilling or unable to honor that commitment. l On the settlement date, one party in effect owes the other party a net amount. Copyright ©1997 Ian H. Giddy Forwards, Futures and Money-Market Hedging 11 A Typical Forward Contract l We agree today to pay a certain price for a currency in the future BackusBackus SAN- TANDER SAN- TANDER Soles
  4. 4. Giddy Forwards, Futures and Money-Market Hedging/4 Copyright ©1997 Ian H. Giddy Forwards, Futures and Money-Market Hedging 12 Customization, Performance Risk and Liquidity l Customization implies bilateral contracts, which carry performance risk l Liquidity implies standardization and freedom from counterparty risk, through exchange-traded contracts Copyright ©1997 Ian H. Giddy Forwards, Futures and Money-Market Hedging 13 How Does the Bank Hedge a Forward Contract? Hedging approaches: uOpen uForward uSpot plus swap uRollover uMoney market
  5. 5. Giddy Forwards, Futures and Money-Market Hedging/5 Copyright ©1997 Ian H. Giddy Forwards, Futures and Money-Market Hedging 14 Foreign Exchange Quotations Spot Forward points Copyright ©1997 Ian H. Giddy Forwards, Futures and Money-Market Hedging 15 How Banks Hedge SHORT LONG Today T+2 T+90 Methods: - Spot + swap - Spot + rollover swap - Money market - Outright forward
  6. 6. Giddy Forwards, Futures and Money-Market Hedging/6 Copyright ©1997 Ian H. Giddy Forwards, Futures and Money-Market Hedging 16 The FX Swap Hedge 3-month Forward Contract 3-month Swap l Dealers typically hedge a forward foreign- exchange commitment with a spot plus “FX Swap”: spot sale plus forward purchase of a foreign currency l The FX swap rate is determined by the interest differential Copyright ©1997 Ian H. Giddy Forwards, Futures and Money-Market Hedging 17 The Roll-Over Swap Hedge 6-month Forward Contract 3-month Swap 3-month Swap l Dealers often hedge a long-term foreign- exchange commitment with shorter-term contracts, which are “rolled over” as they come due l Corporations themselves do this too.
  7. 7. Giddy Forwards, Futures and Money-Market Hedging/7 Copyright ©1997 Ian H. Giddy Forwards, Futures and Money-Market Hedging 18 The FX Swap Hedge 3-month Forward Contract Borrow USD Invest in DEM l Dealers also hedge a forward commitment in the money market: borrow the currency you will be receiving, and invest in the currency you will be paying l The FX swap rate is determined by the interest differential Copyright ©1997 Ian H. Giddy Forwards, Futures and Money-Market Hedging 19 110 115 120 125 130 135 140 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 EXCHANGE RATE, YEN PER US$ FORWARD PREMUIM, PERCENT PER ANNUM FORWARD (LEFTSCALE) SPOT (LEFTSCALE) FORWARDPREMIUM (RIGHTSCALE) MONTHLY DATA, 1987-1989 FORWARDPREMIUM=[(SPOT-FORWARD)/SPOT]*(12/3)*100 The Forward Rate Tracks the Spot Rate
  8. 8. Giddy Forwards, Futures and Money-Market Hedging/8 Copyright ©1997 Ian H. Giddy Forwards, Futures and Money-Market Hedging 20 Linkages Between Interest Rates Interest rate differential Interest rate differential Forward premium Forward premium Expected % change in exchange rate Expected % change in exchange rate Copyright ©1997 Ian H. Giddy Forwards, Futures and Money-Market Hedging 21 Cost of Hedging Type of Hedge Cost of Hedging Forward Forward premium Money Market Hedge (Borrow to match assets) Interest rate differential Do nothing Expected rate of change of exchange rate
  9. 9. Giddy Forwards, Futures and Money-Market Hedging/9 Copyright ©1997 Ian H. Giddy Forwards, Futures and Money-Market Hedging 22 Corporate Hedging Decisions: Frutas Amazonas Exporting bananas to Spain, get paid in Spanish pesetas. Funding is in U.S. dollars. Copyright ©1997 Ian H. Giddy Forwards, Futures and Money-Market Hedging 23 Corporate Hedging Decisions: Frutas Amazonas l Continue funding in U.S. dollars. The peseta might get stronger in the next three months, from $1=128 pesetas to $1=126 pesetas. This could be the cheapest l Switch funding to pesetas, despite the slightly higher cost l Borrow in dollars, but hedge the exchange risk in the forward market.
  10. 10. Giddy Forwards, Futures and Money-Market Hedging/10 Copyright ©1997 Ian H. Giddy Forwards, Futures and Money-Market Hedging 24 Frutas Amazonas Eurodollar 3-month loan rate 5 9/16% Europeseta 3- month loan rate 7 15/16% Spot exchange rate today Pta128.210 per USD Forward exchange rate today Pta129.005 per USD Forward discount, % per annum -2.5 Copyright ©1997 Ian H. Giddy Forwards, Futures and Money-Market Hedging 25 Frutas Amazonas Type of Hedge Cost of Hedging Forward 2.5% Money Market Hedge (Borrow to match assets) 2.375% Do nothing 2/128 x 4 = 6.25% gain (or 2.5% loss?)
  11. 11. Giddy Forwards, Futures and Money-Market Hedging/11 Copyright ©1997 Ian H. Giddy Forwards, Futures and Money-Market Hedging 26 Bid and Offer Quotations in the Long-Dated Forward Market 1.3 1.35 1.4 1.45 1.5 1.55 1.6 1.65 1.7 1.75 1.8 1.85 1.9 SPOT 2YR 3YR 4YR 5YR 7YEAR 10 YEAR .05% .63% 1.25% 1.44% 1.62% 3.96% 6.34% EXCHANGE RATE, DOLLARS PERPOUND STERLING OFFER BID MATURITYOFFORWARDCONTRACT Copyright ©1997 Ian H. Giddy Forwards, Futures and Money-Market Hedging 27 Forwards, Money Market Hedging and Futures l Forward contracts: OTC contracts for future delivery, often settled in cash l Forwards can be used in 1. Hedging 2. Positioning 3. Arbitrage l Interest rate parity means that a forward hedge is, normally, the same as a money market hedge. l Futures are free of default risk.
  12. 12. Giddy Forwards, Futures and Money-Market Hedging/12 Marking-to- Market of a Futures Contract 0.625 0.63 0.635 0.64 0.645 0.65 -25 -20 -15 -10 -5 -1 SHORT POSITION LONG POSITION DAILYGAINS ANDLOSSES DAILYDM FUTURES PRICE MOVEMENTS FUTURES SPOT FUTURES PRICES, US$PERMARK DAYSBEFORESETTLEMENTDATE Copyright ©1997 Ian H. Giddy Forwards, Futures and Money-Market Hedging 29 Forwards vs Futures vs Options l Good credit: Forward usually best l Sometimes, Money Market Hedge better u Perfect market: same (covered int. arb.) u Imperfect market: MMH may be better l Credit problem: Futures u But: limited and standardized u Requires margin and daily settlement l Uncertain future cash flows: u Liquid instrument (futures/forwards to assure flexibility u Options sometimes advisable
  13. 13. Giddy Forwards, Futures and Money-Market Hedging/13 Copyright ©1997 Ian H. Giddy Forwards, Futures and Money-Market Hedging 30

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